THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[redriver]

It didn't occur to me that the letter was forged until I read this post, but it did seem strange that Ramsay would sign a letter THE BASTARD when Theon has warned Stannis never to call him that especially now he has been legitimised. Could the signature be a CLUE?

Also, it seemed unusually literate and strategic for the bastard to write a letter threatening and offering terms (sort of) especially if its a trick to draw Jon Snow into an attack. I think its Roose hiding behind his bastard, or possibly, Mance Rayder has become a plaything of Ramsay's (like Reek) and is writing the letter for him.

He didn't sign the letter Bastard.He signed it Ramsay Bolton,Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

Bastard was who it was addressed to.A name Mance called Jon in every interaction they ever had,apart from one.

[Buried Treasure]

The boulder sized chip Ramsay has on his shoulder about bastardy means addressing Jon as 'bastard' makes perfect sense to me.

He hated his trueborn peers because they got a thousand advantages over him; they got raised in castles, educations, weapons training etc that he did not despite his Bolton blood making him super special. How much more is he going to resent the idea of another bastard who got all the advantages that he was denied?

Now he is legitimised, and he wants the world to remember it, he won't let others refer to him as a bastard and uses the term 'trueborn' in his signature (which most people would not bother with because it is usually implicit). Now he is better than a castle-bred bastard like Jon, so he is going to use every term he can do to rub that in.

[MtnLion]

So, we have four candidates for addressing Jon as "Bastard" at every opportunity:

1. Ramsay Bolton (Snow)
   
2. Tyrion Lannister
   
3. Mance Rayder
   
4. Alliser Thorne
   

[Pelican]

An interesting point, Mtn Lion. Tyrion urged Jon to wear his bastardy as armor, and there was wording in the later Jon chapters that made me think he was doing that. [At work, but one instance that springs to mind is him referring to Longclaw as his bastard sword--it is the technical term for that type of sword, but I read it as maybe a little ironic here also]. The Tyrion/Jon meeting has a few phrases that seem to indicate they'll be meeting again, and it will be interesting to see what Tyrion will think of Jon's armor then.

I think Jon asserts control over his reaction to the letter no matter who wrote it [allowing for a immediate visceral response or two to a letter written in blood that threatens him and his sister]. He may recognize the code if it's from Mance, or he may believe he's on to Ramsay or Roose's game. If "Bastard" is truly meant as an insult, I think it missed its mark.

[Sam Huxley]

I think it'll be Ramsay, he calls Jon a bastard so many times because of the fact he hates them seeing as he's one. If you read Theon's chapters he knows that no-one should ever call Ramsay a bastard because he hates it. Definitely could be Mance, but if the washerwomen (spearwives) have been caught then Abel will definitely have been caught because they all turned up together, and no matter how mentally strong someone is, I think flaying someone will eventually break them, it only takes a matter of time. I can't see it taking Ramsay too long either in his wroth because the fake Arya has gone, he needs her for Winterfell. I also think one of the reasons he'll want Mance's 'son' and Val will be because he'll probably do something despicable to them in front of Mance, seeing as that's the kind of person Ramsay is!

[MtnLion]

If it is from Ramsay, it is dictated to someone who wrote it for Ramsay. Jon does not notice "a large spiky hand". Further, I think it would almost be guaranteed to be from Ramsay if it contained a bit of skin from any of the washerwomen, which it did not. Finally, it is not written in blood.

ETA: The letter seems to be a forgery based upon the smear of pink wax, where all others from House Bolton have had a hard bead of pink wax. One can say perhaps it was sealed in a hurry, but it seems unlikely since seals are like signing a document.

[hotweaselsoup]

I think it'll be Ramsay, he calls Jon a bastard so many times because of the fact he hates them seeing as he's one. If you read Theon's chapters he knows that no-one should ever call Ramsay a bastard because he hates it. Definitely could be Mance, but if the washerwomen (spearwives) have been caught then Abel will definitely have been caught because they all turned up together, and no matter how mentally strong someone is, I think flaying someone will eventually break them, it only takes a matter of time. I can't see it taking Ramsay too long either in his wroth because the fake Arya has gone, he needs her for Winterfell. I also think one of the reasons he'll want Mance's 'son' and Val will be because he'll probably do something despicable to them in front of Mance, seeing as that's the kind of person Ramsay is!

Something to think about: if Mance was the author, then everything in the letter - all that stuff about the spearwives being caught and flayed, etc., and Mance freezing in a cage - could have been made up whole hog by Mance before anything went down at Winterfell. For all we know, Mance was sending the letter via ravenmail while the spearwives and Theon were springing Jeyne, or he could have sent it even before that.

[Gannicus]

I just finished a ADWD re-read and the letter has me as bugged out as I was the first time I read the thing.

The Suspects

Ramsay (50%) - Why it could be him - Lets face it the letter is signed and sealed in the pink wax of Bolton. The mannerisms are Ramsay all the way, and everything Ramsay said could theoretically happen.

Motives - This is a tricky one, maybe he's desperate, maybe he is telling the truth and just wants his Reek and Arya back, Maybe he's caught Mance and is just being a cruel SOB.

What Doesn't add up - If he defeated Stannis wouldn't he have Theon? Maybe Asha was able to whisk Theon away or maybe he was killed by Stannis before the battle?

Mance (20%) - Mance is the guy in Winterfell who is privy to all of the information in that letter. But I don't get his motives?

Stannis (15%) - I could see why he wants Jon to come south. He had that conversation with Massey about the word of his death. But does he know about Mance from Mel? I didn't think so. Did he win and find Mance in Winterfell? Then why would he need Jon to come south? It doesn't feel like Stannis' style.

Field (15%) - Mel? Why would she want Jon away from the wall?

Thorne or Marsh, to get Jon to break his vows? But how would they know all that crap?

Varys or Littlefinger? What scheme is this?

Does Roose have a scheme?

Some Northern Lord who knows about the will?

[Sam Huxley]

Stannis hasn't even battled at Winterfell yet, so there is no way he knows about Mance, and Mel wouldn't have told him because it would be her openly defying him, which he wouldn't abide.

[Bastard of the White Knife]

Stannis hasn't even battled at Winterfell yet, so there is no way he knows about Mance, and Mel wouldn't have told him because it would be her openly defying him, which he wouldn't abide.

Except that GRRM has said that we the events described in ADWD and AFFC are not presented in the strictest chronolgical order. There are whole threads on this site devoted to trying to peice together events in a chronological order. That being said, I agree with your premise that the letter did not come from Stannis.

[Myk Lonmouth]

This is madness. It was Ramsay. Anyone else doesn't make any damn sense. What kind of payoff would possibly be worth this much misdirection on GRRM's part?

[Sam Huxley]

Except that GRRM has said that we the events described in ADWD and AFFC are not presented in the strictest chronolgical order. There are whole threads on this site devoted to trying to peice together events in a chronological order. That being said, I agree with your premise that the letter did not come from Stannis.

He has released a Theon chapter which is going to be released in the Winds of Winter, which shows that Stannis is still in that village.

[pestor]

This is madness. It was Ramsay. Anyone else doesn't make any damn sense. What kind of payoff would possibly be worth this much misdirection on GRRM's part?

How would Ramsey know about Val or the Wildling babe? Admittedly the only one who would know of everything in that letter is Mance. So unless Mance has been flayed and questioned Ramsey doesnt have the knowledge to put that all into writing. Additionally Jon makes no note upon the hand writing so it could or could not be from Ramsey's hand. I am leaning towards not since IMO Jon would make a note of the large spiky writing.

[Gannicus]

He has released a Theon chapter which is going to be released in the Winds of Winter, which shows that Stannis is still in that village.

On GRRM's blog he said this about the Theon Chapter

(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE).

[Gannicus]

How would Ramsey know about Val or the Wildling babe? Admittedly the only one who would know of everything in that letter is Mance. So unless Mance has been flayed and questioned Ramsey doesnt have the knowledge to put that all into writing. Additionally Jon makes no note upon the hand writing so it could or could not be from Ramsey's hand. I am leaning towards not since IMO Jon would make a note of the large spiky writing.

At the very least some of the spearwives were killed and captured. The information was most likely flayed out of them.

[Black Crow]

The smear of pink wax is the killer. If it came from Ramsay himself it would have been a proper seal. He's so status conscious that even if somebody mustered the courage to tell him they were running low on pink wax he'd turn them into the stuff one way or another. It therefore has to be a forgery and if it was a forgery done at Winterfell I really don't see anybody having access to just a small quantity of wax. Its far more likely that it was done at Castle Black, which is why Clydas is so terrified when he hands it over because he knows damn well its a forgery and didn't arrive by raven.

As to who did write it, I offer no opinion.

[Budj]

I can't prove this, but from how I read the personalities of wildlings they would fight so fiercely they would be killed before being captured - especially knowing the fate that awaited them being captured alive. They spent enough time in WF to know what being captured alive meant.

[pestor]

At the very least some of the spearwives were killed and captured. The information was most likely flayed out of them.

Even so what sense does it make to tell him, and more importantly what kind of question is he asking to get that information

[Sam Huxley]

if this letter was made at Castle Black there would only be a select few people who actually knew that Mance was still alive; Melisandre and Jon, perhaps even Davos' son, Melisandre would have no motive for Jon's death as she warned him on numerous occasions to keep Ghost near him to protect him from danger. Jon himself is a big no go, and Daven would have absolutely no reason to do this, even in the slight chance he does know about Mance being alive.

I think the bastard wrote the letter himself, without Roose's leave so it was rushed and sloppy and done in a state of pure fury, something that the bastard would be prone to seeing as he is sick in the head. I doubt Ramsay is even literate so he will of had a maester write the letter for him, and if he was in state of fury the maester would be terrified of him. This could explain why the seal wasn't perfect...

[Ingelheim]

if this letter was made at Castle Black there would only be a select few people who actually knew that Mance was still alive; Melisandre and Jon, perhaps even Davos' son, Melisandre would have no motive for Jon's death as she warned him on numerous occasions to keep Ghost near him to protect him from danger. Jon himself is a big no go, and Daven would have absolutely no reason to do this, even in the slight chance he does know about Mance being alive.

I think the bastard wrote the letter himself, without Roose's leave so it was rushed and sloppy and done in a state of pure fury, something that the bastard would be prone to seeing as he is sick in the head. I doubt Ramsay is even literate so he will of had a maester write the letter for him, and if he was in state of fury the maester would be terrified of him. This could explain why the seal wasn't perfect...

To me is Mance. He wants to be free.