Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[danm_999]

Why would a mother leave her baby stranded and lonesome during the siege and sack of a castle? It had to be convincing.

As I said previously, if the baby doesn't look like Aegon, Elia's prescence or lack of prescence, is going to be way down on the list of importance for the Usurpers dogs.

If they had never found Ellia, Robert and Tywin(he's no fool) would have likely assumed she'd switched her baby with another and escaped.

Why would they never find her? My point is she'd have died at Lorch's hand with Rhaeneys, her remaining real child.

Ellia's maternal instincts were present, just not in the form you were thinking. She sacrificed herself for Aegon so that people would never suspect him alive.

As I've said, I call bullshit on this plan, as it doesn't make sense Varys would be concerned about Elia's reaction giving away Aegon's switch when Aegon's appearance would have done that so much more easily.

Sickly Ellia running around the castle chasing Rhaeny's with Aegon in her arms as the Mountain and his man are running about murdering and raping folks. Implausible, no?

Hold on, why are you truncating all of this into a single event?

Who said the baby switch and Rhaenys murder and all that happened in a short period of time that requires me to pretend it played out like a Benny Hill sketch?

The babe was unrecognizable after Gergor was through. You remember the brains and stuff?

Which Varys couldn't predict, since Varys didn't know who would kill Aegon's fake, or how. If the Mountain had smothered Aegon with a pillow, the plan would be fucked.

Hence the whole, Aegon baby swap is implausible except in hindsight

In any case, Vasary's eventually took care of the old man.

20 years after the fact, so that's not really very compelling justification for dismissing the very valid concern that Pycelle might have ruined Varys entire plan had Aegon been killed in a way other than smashing his head.

He was busy in the throne room betraying and murdering his king, and later, sitting the throne keeping it warm until Ned's arrival. Ellia and her children were confined to Maegor's tower.

Except that he might reveal Aegon's corpse was not Aegon.

Varys had no way of predicting this beforehand. See the above Pycelle example.

Barristan wasn't in King's Landing. He was recovering from the injuries he received at the trident.

Once again, Varys has no way of predicting this person will not be a factor beforehand.

Varys doesn't know what's going on in the Usurper's camp. If he did, he'd have known Ned would be receptive to sneaking out innocent children and have used him. As far as Varys knows, Barristan may be amongst the people besieging King's Landing.

You don't know how Aerys had Ellia and her children treated. You don't know who the hand maids were, if she had them at all, how often they were switched out, etc. Hell, Varys could have surrounded Ellia with people of his own(hey Shae). We don't know, and assuming we do is ingenuine(not a real word, I know).

That's right, we don't.

We can infer things though. We can infer you can't keep several people alive, especially one who appears to be sick, without some element of human contact.

And what if part of that "human contact" sank the plot.

We know nothing, and in any case, the boys head was smashed and brains were spilling from his skull. How recognizable do you think the boy was?

Varys can't have known this would have happened beforehand.

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?" "Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked. "He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way."

The woman he was talking to was Ellia. She was conditioned to believe her son was the ptwp.

No, Rhaegar said it. We have no idea what Elia thought about this. I'm absolutely incredulous you try and make this point after saying a few paragraphs up that we don't know everything, and assuming we do is disengenious (that's the world you're looking for BTW), but then here assume Elia accepted Aegon as TPTWP based on a magical fever dream Daenerys has.

Anyhoo, I'm off for the day. Have fun mulling over child murder, the most enjoyable of all internet topics :P

[Dragonfish]

Not really, but hey if you feel it was guilty....

Not guilty, just naturally defensive. It's one of my character flaws.

But I will change it a little. Bravely Done has his OP, others have their own. Make your case, let him retort,each have another round. But once you know he not gonna change your mined, and vise versa, its time to move on.

Believe me, I wanted to quit at many points throughout the argument, but I just couldn't back down. I'm stubborn that way.

[danm_999]

Did he tell Tyrion that he sent Dany to the Dothrake to get killed? I don't remember it. Wouldn't this undermine his claim that he is her supporter?

Here's his estimation of his "marry Dany to Drogo" plan.

If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.

Doesn't really seem like something a Targaryen supporter would have arranged for one of the last living Targaryens, does it?

[Bravely Done]

Children don't look exactly likke their parents and even in Westeros aren't expected to.

The Targaryen's are incestous. The variety in their physical characteristics is more limited than that of the the families in Westeros, and they're the only family of old Valaryia with a confirmed, unbroken bloodline.

If even Aurane Waters reminds Cersei of Rhaegar then a silver blond lad of about the right age and with blue to purple eyes is going to be fine. People who were personally aquainted with the Targaryen royal family and who might have been able to spot that something wasn't quite right about Aegon seem to be mysteriously dying recently.

Upon closer inspection, Cersie recants and admits that Aurane Waters, despite having silver blond hair, looks nothing like Rhaegar. Or a very, very, very, very, poor version.

I don't know why Illyrio expected Daenerys to die - but that's what he says in ADWD. Presumably he thought she was too fragile and weak to survive. The Dothraki act to put her out of play. They aren't involved in Westeros politics, they aren't a seafaring people and even if you can get over those two hurdles then there style of warfare is doing to make anyone associated with them universally unpopular in Westeros.

Was Drogo not planning to sail his armies across the narrow sea prior to dying? So though Illyrio doubted that his plan would be a success, it ended up being one regardless?

Nor does daenerys have the making of a court in exile (ie noble supporters with influence and connections in Westeros) until Quentyn Martell turns up - and that has to do with the ambitions of the Martells not the scheming of Varys and Illyrio.

You're mistaken, I think. He sends her Selmy and Tyrion, both of whom sat the council in Kings Landing. That's two members of her court right there.

[Dragonfish]

The Targaryen's are incestous. The variety in their physical characteristics is more limited than that of the the families in Westeros, and they're the only family of old Valaryia with a confirmed, unbroken bloodline.

The Blackfyres have the same genes as the Targaryens, so whatever characteristics the Targaryens have, they have too.

Furthermore, the Targaryens have not been entirely incestuous. There have been several non-Targs who have contributed to the modern line, including Viserys I's Arryn wife, Daeron II's Dornish wife, and, we think, Jaehaerys II's wife (since he was allowed to marry for love). And then, of course, there's the fact that Aegon himself is only half-Targ, given that his mother was Dornish. Given these facts, it was entirely possible that Aegon himself would grow up not to look like a typical Targaryen.

[butterbumps!]

While I was very much in the believe that Aegon was real a week ago I have doubts, and want to hear what eles there is. Some of the people who do not believe this keeping make the same circle arguement with little or no change, almost to the point that their arguements are sounding like a child. You know who you are. It has been stated at least 3x on this thread, that the proof Aegon/Faegon is in the eye of the beholder mayhaps more then any other theory. Unless your goal is to make Bravely Done's head to blow up, we get your point.

I agree wiht this. I said before, and still think that after 4 books and 10 + years of aSoIaF that GRRM knew if changed tatics and brought YG staight out, it would be the best way to hide him.

No one is saying that there is hard and fast proof that Aegon is fake. One side is saying that there is "proof" that Aegon is real, and give reasons, including but not limited to, the fact that Aegon is disguised, that Illyrio and Varys' actions clearly align them with Targaryen loyalties, and that the Golden Company broke their contract to fight for Dany, suggesting that they would back a Targaryen.

Those believing that Aegon is not Rhaegar's son argue that there are inconsistencies if one accepts that Aegon is real, and have shown evidence of Illyrio and Varys' deception, the logistical problems with believing they are pro-Targ, and many reasons why a disguise =/= Targaryen. So this side is stating an argument in terms of a negative; they are not typically asserting that anything is positive proof of something, but arguing that there are too many inconsistencies and competing motives to accept Aegon Targaryen at present.

As for why I would believe in the VI

One thing that has been said many times is that little birds mean that Varys wouldn't tell them the truth in front of them? I think that is crazy. If he did not trust them, he wouldn't let them listen to what people are saying. He get "little birds" that don't have tounges, and can read/write from across the narrow sea for a reason. IMO they read and write in an Esso Language, other wise he would just find some in KL and teach them.

This was pointed out several times why this makes sense. Illyrio is the one who finds and "prepares" Varys' little birds. Illyrio sends Varys the children with their tongues cut off. While it does not provide sufficient evidence to say that Varys is definitively lying to Kevan, it does establish sufficient basis to cast doubt on whether Varys is absolutely telling the truth. While the birds appear loyal to Varys, it is not beyond reasonable doubt that Illyrio may be using some to keep an eye on Varys. If Varys does not have the same endgame as Illyrio, he would be a fool to articulate this in front of the birds that have just as much connection to Illyrio as they do to Varys.

I just don't see V/I Trying to pull off a 10+ year con. Too much could go wrong. Childern looks change as the age, if he was a fake and was w/ JC notice the kid not really looking the part?

I think we have sufficient evidence that Varys in in for the Long Con. This actually refutes Aegon Targaryen as well. Whether Varys is pro Targ or Blackfyre, the fact that he and Illyrio made some sort of pact with the GC shows us that he's in for the long haul on whatever he's planning.

[Bravely Done]

They aren't easy to predict. Baelor Breakspear favored his Dornish mother, while his children had a mixture of looks from both their Targ father and Dornish mother. Rhaegar's daughter looked like a Martell, his son like a Targaryen. In other words, there's no telling if the child of a Targaryen/Martell will favor the Targaryen side or the Martell side. And there remains the possibility that Aegon, if he lived, would have grown up to look more and more like his Dornish mother.

Baelor Breakspear was the only son of Daeron II with the hair of a Martell. Maekar and Aerys at least, looked Targaryen through and through. He and Rhaenys are the only Targaryens of royal birth to ever be born with features that aren't typical of Targaryen's.

[Dragonfish]

Baelor Breakspear was the only son of Daeron II with the hair of a Martell. Maekar and Aerys at least, looked Targaryen through and through. He and Rhaenys are the only Targaryens of royal birth to ever be born with features that aren't typical of Targaryen's.

No, this isn't true. Baelor's own sons had Dornish looks. Maekar's son, Daeron, didn't look like a typical Targaryen either. Bittersteel had the eyes, but not the hair. And then of course, if R+L=J, which you say you believe, then Jon doesn't look like a Targ either.

[Bravely Done]

As I said previously, if the baby doesn't look like Aegon, Elia's prescence or lack of prescence, is going to be way down on the list of importance for the Usurpers dogs.

So you're arguing that the Mountain, who'd never even been to Kings Landing at this point, knew what Aegon looked like?

Why would they never find her? My point is she'd have died at Lorch's hand with Rhaeneys, her remaining real child.

You implied that she should have left the babe alone in the nursery and left with Varys, did you not?

As I've said, I call bullshit on this plan, as it doesn't make sense Varys would be concerned about Elia's reaction giving away Aegon's switch when Aegon's appearance would have done that so much more easily.

I'm not even sure what you're arguing right here?

Hold on, why are you truncating all of this into a single event?

Who said the baby switch and Rhaenys murder and all that happened in a short period of time that requires me to pretend it played out like a Benny Hill sketch?

Are you questioning if the sack of Kings Landing, and in particular, the pillaging of Maegor's tower happened during the same span of time?

Which Varys couldn't predict, since Varys didn't know who would kill Aegon's fake, or how. If the Mountain had smothered Aegon with a pillow, the plan would be fucked.

Hence the whole, Aegon baby swap is implausible except in hindsight

The mountain sounds like the type to smother babies with pillows. He's always so delicate, isn't he? He was very nice to Ellia as well.

In any case, the baby having his head smashed was a plot device by Martin to keep the possibility of Aegon being alive feasible.

20 years after the fact, so that's not really very compelling justification for dismissing the very valid concern that Pycelle might have ruined Varys entire plan had Aegon been killed in a way other than smashing his head.

Pycelle could have recognized the boy, sure, but he didn't, and no one could. I'm not really sure why this is a point of discussion.

Except that he might reveal Aegon's corpse was not Aegon.

Varys had no way of predicting this beforehand. See the above Pycelle example.

Why are you assuming Jamie was familiar with Aegon?

Once again, Varys has no way of predicting this person will not be a factor beforehand.

Varys doesn't know what's going on in the Usurper's camp. If he did, he'd have known Ned would be receptive to sneaking out innocent children and have used him. As far as Varys knows, Barristan may be amongst the people besieging King's Landing.

Um... what? The battle of the Trident happened a good deal of time before the sack of Kings Landing, and it was the Lannisters, not the Baratheons and Starks, that were responsible. Selmy was Robert's(who wasn't there initially, and this was known by Varys) prisoner at this point, and wasn't pardoned till much later.

That's right, we don't.

We can infer things though. We can infer you can't keep several people alive, especially one who appears to be sick, without some element of human contact.

And what if part of that "human contact" sank the plot.

I don't even know what you're arguing anymore. You're all over the place.

Varys can't have known this would have happened beforehand.

Whatever the case, it worked out.

No, Rhaegar said it. We have no idea what Elia thought about this. I'm absolutely incredulous you try and make this point after saying a few paragraphs up that we don't know everything, and assuming we do is disengenious (that's the world you're looking for BTW), but then here assume Elia accepted Aegon as TPTWP based on a magical fever dream Daenerys has. :P

There's no point in discussing further if you're going dismiss the text because it contradicts what you believe. Rhaegar had pre-conditioned Ellia to believe her son were the ptwp. What you think and feel is irrelevant, as what I said occurred in the novel.

[Bravely Done]

No, this isn't true. Baelor's own sons had Dornish looks.

Neither of Baelor's sons were of royal birth.

Maekar's son, Daeron, didn't look like a typical Targaryen either.

He had sandy brown hair and a blond beard, not a typical Targaryen, but there was never an explanation for this occurrence.

Bittersteel had the eyes, but not the hair.

Bittersteel is a bastard, and not of royal birth.

And then of course, if R+L=J, which you say you believe, then Jon doesn't look like a Targ either.

There is no precedent to look upon for children of mixed Stark and Targaryen heritage, and in any case, Jon is also a bastard and not of royal birth. Be his father Ned or Rhaegar.

[Bravely Done]

The Blackfyres have the same genes as the Targaryens, so whatever characteristics the Targaryens have, they have too.

Originally, this were so. However the male line of the Blackfyre's ended with Maelys the Monstrous, and there's no reason to assume they managed to keep their line in tact beyond that. The relation would continue to thin, one generation after the next, as the Blackfyre's breed with bloodlines that weren't Targaryen.

Furthermore, the Targaryens have not been entirely incestuous. There have been several non-Targs who have contributed to the modern line, including Viserys I's Arryn wife, Daeron II's Dornish wife, and, we think, Jaehaerys II's wife (since he was allowed to marry for love). And then, of course, there's the fact that Aegon himself is only half-Targ, given that his mother was Dornish. Given these facts, it was entirely possible that Aegon himself would grow up not to look like a typical Targaryen.

While this is great information to have, it doesn't conflict with my statement of, "The Targaryen's are incestous. The variety in their physical characteristics is more limited than that of the families in Westeros, and they're the only family of old Valaryia with a confirmed, unbroken bloodline."

[Dragonfish]

Neither of Baelor's sons were of royal birth.

How are you defining royal birth? I take it to mean that someone is born into a royal lineage, which Baelor's children were.

He had sandy brown hair and a blond beard, not a typical Targaryen, but there was never an explanation for this occurrence.

The explanation is that he had non-Targ genes that ended up expressing themselves.

Bittersteel is a bastard, and not of royal birth.

Ok, this is true, but I don't see why it matters. Genes do not pay attention to whether or not a person is of royal birth.

There is no precedent to look upon for children of mixed Stark and Targaryen heritage, and in any case, Jon is also a bastard and not of royal birth. Be his father Ned or Rhaegar.

Actually, a lot of people theorize that Rhaegar and Lyanna married polygamously, which would make Jon legitimate.

[Dragonfish]

Originally, this were so. However the male line of the Blackfyre's ended with Maelys the Monstrous, and there's no reason to assume they managed to keep their line in tact beyond that.

Actually, there is. Illyrio said they were extinguished in the male line, which suggests that the female line still exists.

The relation would continue to thin, one generation after the next, as the Blackfyre's breed with bloodlines that weren't Targaryen.

Why are you assuming that they interbred with non-Targ lines? They could have engaged in incest as well, and could actually have more Targ blood than even modern-day targs have.

While this is great information to have, it doesn't conflict with my statement of, "The Targaryen's are incestous. The variety in their physical characteristics is more limited than that of the families in Westeros, and they're the only family of old Valaryia with a confirmed, unbroken bloodline."

Ok, but the point is that there was no telling how Aegon would turn out in terms of appearance, because he is only half-Targ. People claim the Blackfyre theory doesn't work because they couldn't have known what the child would grow to look like, but the same would've been true for a real Aegon.

[Bravely Done]

How are you defining royal birth? I take it to mean that someone is born into a royal lineage, which Baelor's children were.

Cousins are seldom considered royalty when their mothers are unknown. Do you have a precedent for this?

The explanation is that he had non-Targ genes that ended up expressing themselves.

Source?

Ok, this is true, but I don't see why it matters. Genes do not pay attention to whether or not a person is of royal birth.

It matters because he wasn't a Targaryen of the royal line, but a bastard cousin, throwing a distinction in the bloodline.

Actually, a lot of people theorize that Rhaegar and Lyanna married polygamously, which would make Jon legitimate.

Another baseless and unfounded theory with no evidence, from Dragonfish, no less. I'm shocked.

[Bravely Done]

Actually, there is. Illyrio said they were extinguished in the male line, which suggests that the female line still exists.

Meaning the females left after Maelys died, were forced to breed with males of non Targaryen heritage. Meaning their sons, and their sons after them, do not have the "same genes as Targaryen's". Which is what you stated.

Why are you assuming that they interbred with non-Targ lines?

Because they had no choice.

They could have engaged in incest as well, and could actually have more Targ blood than even modern-day targs have.

Unless two women mating can produce a child, it was impossible for them to practice incest after Maelys.

Ok, but the point is that there was no telling how Aegon would turn out in terms of appearance, because he is only half-Targ.

There's a precedent that exist for a children of mixed Targaryen/Martell heritage. Rhaegar's children followed that precedent.

People claim the Blackfyre theory doesn't work because they couldn't have known what the child would grow to look like, but the same would've been true for a real Aegon.

No, nobody has argued that. People have argued that the Blackfyre theory is baseless, unfounded, and unsupported by the text in the novels.

[Bravely Done]

This was pointed out several times why this makes sense. Illyrio is the one who finds and "prepares" Varys' little birds.

It was never established that Illyrio supplies Varys with all his birds. And considering he has birds everywhere in the 7 kingdoms, in castles, stables, and otherwise, I think it's safe to assume that some of his birds are Westerosi.

Illyrio sends Varys the children with their tongues cut off. While it does not provide sufficient evidence to say that Varys is definitively lying to Kevan, it does establish sufficient basis to cast doubt on whether Varys is absolutely telling the truth.

Actually, it doesn't do that at all. That's your bias leading you to grasping things out of thin air.

While the birds appear loyal to Varys, it is not beyond reasonable doubt that Illyrio may be using some to keep an eye on Varys.

This in an unfounded theory unsupported by the text.

If Varys does not have the same endgame as Illyrio, he would be a fool to articulate this in front of the birds that have just as much connection to Illyrio as they do to Varys.

We don't know what their end game is, but we know Illyrio and Varys have been loyal to each other and worked together for their mutual benefit for a very long time.

There's nothing in the book that implies or suggest there's ever been treachery between the two, whereas it's well documented that they've always worked in cahoots.

I think we have sufficient evidence that Varys in in for the Long Con.

There's no evidence that Varys is "conning" anyone.

This actually refutes Aegon Targaryen as well. Whether Varys is pro Targ or Blackfyre, the fact that he and Illyrio made some sort of pact with the GC shows us that he's in for the long haul on whatever he's planning.

Varys and Illyrio didn't make a pact with the Golden Company, they made a pact with Jon Connington and Blackheart, and it involved Connington falsely being disgraced in order to have excuse for him deserting, at which point, he'd secretly take over the responsibilities of raising Aegon.

Outside of Strickland, prior to reaching the river Rhyone on the outskirts of Volantis, no one in the Golden Company knew who Aegon was, or even that he existed.

And that's my problem with Blackfyre supporters. You oft ignore the text for the advancement of this theory.

[Dragonfish]

Cousins are seldom considered royalty when their mothers are unknown. Do you have a precedent for this?

Huh? Valarr and Matarys were Baelor's sons, and Baelor was Daeron II's heir. As such, they were the grandson's of the king, and were in the line of succession. In fact, after Baelor died, but before Valarr did, Valarr was next in line to be king once Daeron II died.

Source?

Uh...genetics? If Targaryen genes give one silver hair and purple eyes, then Daeron's sandy-blond hair must be due to non-Targ genes.

It matters because he wasn't a Targaryen of the royal line, but a bastard cousin, throwing a distinction in the bloodline.

What distinction is this? Are you saying it doesn't matter because he didn't contribute to the modern Targ line?

Another baseless and unfounded theory with no evidence, from Dragonfish no less. I'm shocked.

It's not baseless. The Kingsguard being at the ToJ is a big hint toward this. I suggest you spend a little time in the R+L=J thread and bone up a little on the arguments before going any further with this.

Meaning the females left after Maelys died, were forced to breed with males of non Targaryen heritage. Meaning their sons, and their sons after them, do not have the "same genes as Targaryen's". Which is what you stated.

Well, the male line only died about a generation ago, so whatever non-Targs contributed to the Blackfyre line didn't do so far very many generations.

Because they had no choice.

I'll admit that Daemon Blackfyre's sons didn't have a choice, since they don't appear to have had any sisters. But their children may have had a choice, if they did have sisters.

There's a precedent that exist for a children of mixed Targaryen/Martell heritage. Rhaegar's children followed that precedent.

Right, and that precedent shows that children may end up looking like a Targ or a Martell.

No, nobody has argued that.

No, Ser Loudmouth has been arguing just that. That's how this whole argument began.

[TheMysteriousOne]

I remember hearing about some research carried out with survivors of the holocaust in which their written testimonies immediately after the war were compared with their memories of the same events forty or so years later and it was found that while memories of the events reminded fairly precise that memories of details - in particular colours changed.

Also this is a culture without photographs and lacking even miniature portraits painted on the inside of watch cases, think of Martin Guerre who was accepted as genuine by the family and even the wife of the man he was impersonating.

And having said all that the details of Aegon's appearance are irrelevant so long as the hair colour matches and the sex is right (since gender and hair colour are the only two features of the baby Aegon that we were given). Looking like a targaryen doesn't prove he is a targaryen.

The Blackfyres were of Targaryen blood so they would look like Targaryens (perhaps more so if they have less Dornish blood in their heritage)

There are various Targaryens who knocked about in the Free Cities who may have spawned other illegitimate descendants

Targaryen colourings and features are very common in Lys (think the prostitute with Mormont in ADWD) and other people of Valyrian descent. Remember Cersei thinks that Aurane Waters looks like Rhaegar in AFFC and Aurane isn't believed to be a Targaryen bastard but a Velaryon.

Equally some 100 percent genuine targaryens didn't look like typical targaryens - think of Baelor Breakspear.

Baelor Breakspear was not 100 percent genuinely Targaryen, his mother was Myriah Martell, he was half Dornish

[TheMysteriousOne]

The Blackfyres have the same genes as the Targaryens, so whatever characteristics the Targaryens have, they have too.

Furthermore, the Targaryens have not been entirely incestuous. There have been several non-Targs who have contributed to the modern line, including Viserys I's Arryn wife, Daeron II's Dornish wife, and, we think, Jaehaerys II's wife (since he was allowed to marry for love). And then, of course, there's the fact that Aegon himself is only half-Targ, given that his mother was Dornish. Given these facts, it was entirely possible that Aegon himself would grow up not to look like a typical Targaryen.

The Blackfyres don't have the Dornish element in their genes like the Targaryens.

[Dragonfish]

The Blackfyres don't have the Dornish element in their genes like the Targaryens.

True, but that'd make them more Targaryen-esque in appearance, not less.