Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't really think he cares, but unless there are any of the 'little birds' lurking around, he has no reason to lie to a dead man

But there were little birds lurking around, there's the rub.

[Bravely Done]

If I'm reading the lines, and not in between them(like you suggested earlier), I would say that Varys cancelled the hit when Ned told him to and that's why Jorah saved Dany. Just in a nick of time btw. The assassination attempt was legitimate IMO.

If that's how you read the book, I wont argue with you.

To answer your first two questions, I would say that Varys is not intet at all on killing Dany. He seems indifferent towards her, that is why he let Dany and Viserys roam the free cities by themselves all those years.

Do you have page numbers or quotes that I can look to that confirm Varys had knowledge of their movements and knowledge as they traveled the free cities?

Also, do you have any concrete information on how long it was between the time Ser Willem died, and the time Illyrio took them in?

Aerys Targaryen gave Varys his power.

Thank you.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

Robert wasn't actually trying to assassinate Viserys & Dany. Ned (or maybe Jon Arryn) convinced him they were no threat. Robert only decided to assassinate Dany when he found out that she was pregnant. The fleeing just before the hired knives story was Viserys being paranoid and probably giving Dany a reason for why they were moving on (given what we know of Viserys, I'd say it is more likely he wore out his welcome). 7 years is a long time to let a couple of kids wander without any support before you decide to guide them to Illyrio.

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Varys mentions Aegon.

Kevin thinks to himself about the dead baby in the crimson cloak then says Aegon is dead

Varys says Aegon is not dead, which is true. The Aegon Varys is speaking of is not dead. That doesn't mean the Aegon Kevin is talking about is alive.

Of course Varys knows which Aegon Kevin will assume he is talking about. That's the whole point isn't it? That he is passing him off as the real Aegon.

What was Varys supposed to say there? "No he isn't dead. Well, my Aegon at least. The Aegon you're thinking of is actually dead but I'm passing my Aegon off as the real Aegon because I think he'll be a better king."

[Bravely Done]

What part of "They were traveling the Free Cities openly and asking people for help and everyone knew where they were" isn't sinking in? If you're still in the dark, I believe Dany's first chapter in Game of Thrones give ample background as to what they were doing before arriving at Illyrio's.

So then you don't have text, quotes, or page numbers that confirm Illyrio and Varys were aware of their location and whereabouts as they traveled the free cities.

Since you refuse to answer the last question, I'll ask another. How is it that they found Illyrio?

You answered the question yourself — Jorah became Varys' spy for Dany only after she married Drogo. He didn't need Jorah before then. She was moving from the Free Cities into the Dothraki Sea, so Varys would have needed a new contact. Enter Jorah.

Why does he need to utilize Jorah as a spy when he's always known her exact location and whereabouts without Jorah's services?

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, it's a duck. Or, it's common sense that Varys knew where they were because they made no effort to hide themselves, asked people for favors, stayed with prominent citizens and advertised their whereabouts. Why wouldn't Varys know where they were? It's common sense.

So your claims of them knowing of Viserys and Daenerys movements isn't supported by the text? And you can't point towards quotes or references I can look to for confirmation? I Figured as much. Why? Because it's your opinion, and not a fact. And as far as we know, it isn't true.

[TheMysteriousOne]

But there were little birds lurking around, there's the rub.

Oh, alright then.

[Brewmaster]

If you think that that statement is the dead giveaway of Blackfyre involvement to Tyrion, why doesn't Tyrion think to himself that the Blackfyres must be involved?

That's exactly my point. I actually just read that chapter today and Tyrion is thinking about the Blackfyre rebellion quite a bit and clearly knows about the Golden Company connection. And Tyrion also clearly is untrusting of Illyrio and suspects him of deception at every turn. Yet when Illyrio makes that statement he doesn't think anything at all about Blackfyre involvement. He should.

It's either a small oversight in writing of Tyrion's character, or it means something other than the obvious.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

I don't have the books with me but Dany says she was a little girl. According to the wiki they lived in the House in Braavos for several years before Ser Willem died and they left. Considering she was a baby when they fled Dragonstone, several years would put Dany as a young child. If we assume she was 5 when Ser Willem died and if we say she was at Illyrio's a full year before being "gifted" to Drogo that is 7 years they wandered the Free Cities begging because Dany is 13 at the beginning of AGOT. Personally, I think it is likely that it was a bit longer but even 7 years is a long time for them to get zero help.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

So then you don't have text, quotes, or page numbers that confirm Illyrio and Varys were aware of their location and whereabouts as they traveled the free cities.

Since you refuse to answer the last question, I'll ask another. How is it that they found Illyrio?

Like I said, if you read Dany's initial chapters in Game of Thrones, she talks about how they moved around when Darry died and how they made no efforts to hide their locations and where they were and what they were doing. Viserys got his nickname that stuck because everyone knew what they were doing — what kind of a spymaster would Varys be if he didn't know where they were?

And why do you think I or anyone else should be your personal concordance?

Why does he need to utilize Jorah as a spy when he's always known her exact location and whereabouts without Jorah's services?

Because this is about FUTURE spying, not PAST spying. Why is that so bloody difficult to understand? He knew where they were when they were in the Free Cities, but they're traveling to Vaes Dothrak now, which is not part of the Free Cities, and thus a NEW SPY — Jorah — is needed. Seriously, what is confusing about this?

So your claims of them knowing of Viserys and Daenerys movements isn't supported by the text? And you can't point towards quotes or references I can look to for confirmation? I Figured as much. Why? Because it isn't true.

Your deliberate obtuseness here is both hilarious and infuriating to the point that I think you must really be a troll.

[Dragonfish]

Why does he need to utilize Jorah as a spy when he's always known her exact location and whereabouts without Jorah's services?

Because he needs someone who can remain close to her. That doesn't imply that he didn't know where she was, only that he didn't have someone close to her until that point.

So your claims of them knowing of Viserys and Daenerys movements isn't supported by the text? And you can't point towards quotes or references I can look to for confirmation? I Figured as much. Why? Because it isn't true.

Two huge problems with this statement:

A. Viserys and Dany were staying with well-known, publicly visible figures. If Varys really wanted to find them, then he would have found them.

B. The absence of quotes explicitly stating Varys knew where they were is not evidence he did not know where they were. This is yet another illogical statement, in a long line of illogical statements you have made.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

I'll try another way to approach this. The text doesn't need to explicitly state that Varys knew where they were because it is common knowledge in Essos. He would have to be completely terrible at his job to not know. The text also doesn't explicitly state that Varys knew Hoster Tully lived in Riverrun. However, I am sure that he knew because he would have to be a freaking idiot to not know and I do know that Varys is not an idiot.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That's exactly my point. I actually just read that chapter today and Tyrion is thinking about the Blackfyre rebellion quite a bit and clearly knows about the Golden Company connection. And Tyrion also clearly is untrusting of Illyrio and suspects him of deception at every turn. Yet when Illyrio makes that statement he doesn't think anything at all about Blackfyre involvement. He should.

It's either a small oversight in writing of Tyrion's character, or it means something other than the obvious.

If it's that obvious then why do so many readers, including you, still think this little shit is the real deal? If it's really that obvious, shouldn't more people have tuned into the Blackfyre angle by now?

[Brewmaster]

If it's that obvious then why do so many readers, including you, still think this little shit is the real deal? If it's really that obvious, shouldn't more people have tuned into the Blackfyre angle by now?

The point isn't that it should be obvious to the reader, but that it should be obvious to Tyrion.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The point isn't that it should be obvious to the reader, but that it should be obvious to Tyrion.

But what would be the bigger stretch of logic for Tyrion: That baby Aegon was successfully smuggled out of a chaotic sacking, or that a line that's already been beaten up several times and is extinct in the male line is successfully passing off one of their own as a Targaryen?

[EvilClosetMonkey]

Bravely:

I apologize if I've neglected to respond to some of your questions. Please point out which ones I've ignored and I'll attempt to answer them.

[MyLifeIsNotSoPrecious]

If that's how you read the book, I wont argue with you.

You, yourself said that Varys' motives are clear if you read THE lines and not between them. THE lines state that Varys offered a lordship to whoever killed Dany. By your logic(not your troll logic), Varys wanted Dany dead.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Bravely:

I apologize if I've neglected to respond to some of your questions. Please point out which ones I've ignored and I'll attempt to answer them.

You probably haven't neglected anything, he sees what he wants to see.

[Two Towers]

But what would be the bigger stretch of logic for Tyrion: That baby Aegon was successfully smuggled out of a chaotic sacking, or that a line that's already been beaten up several times and is extinct in the male line is successfully passing off one of their own as a Targaryen?

Perhaps if someone tells Tyrion about the dragon sign that showed up at the side of the river he would recapacitate

[Brewmaster]

But what would be the bigger stretch of logic for Tyrion: That baby Aegon was successfully smuggled out of a chaotic sacking, or that a line that's already been beaten up several times and is extinct in the male line is successfully passing off one of their own as a Targaryen?

I don't think there's any reason for Tyrion to think that one is any less likely than the other. He's well aware that if only the male line of Blackfyres were extinct that there has been plenty of time for the female line to produce males.

If there's a question about Varys motivation for telling Kevan about Aegon, I simply would also say that it stands to reason that there is equal if not more that Illyrio would make that statement to Tyrion.

If that statement means what many think it does, then either Illyrio is being sloppy, Tyrion is being sloppy, or GRRM is being sloppy in characterizing one or both of them.

[fish321]

Ive read through most of this, well a little less than half, and I apologize if this has already been brought up and discussed but why do people believe Varys is doing this for the small-folk of the realm? I can understand the angle that he is a Targ loyalist and I could accept that, though it is not my belief. I could even believe he simply wants Aegon on the throne because it is rightfully his, though I think it much more likely that he is putting him on the Iron throne as a puppet. I can not believe he is seeking to do whats best for the little people and the best proof I have is in his quote at the end of ADWD. As Kevan is dying Varys explains to him that he was pulling the realm together, making peace with the various factions, and that had to stop. Yes I suppose its possible that he simply means he doesn't want the realm to return to the way its been during Roberts reign but the way he states it implies he simply does not wish to have a realm strong enough to stop his choice for king from gaining the throne. He doesnt want a better world full of happy little people dancing with flowers in their hair without a problem in the world, he wants Aegon on the throne. His motives are not pure. As a matter of fact his desire to see Aegon take the throne is one of the major reasons I believe Aegon is not who he is believed to be. If I have time later Ill put up the quote Im talking about as well as a few other instances I can think of where Varys could have helped the realm and its people but instead chose to let things worsen.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

If that statement means what many think it does, then either Illyrio is being sloppy, Tyrion is being sloppy, or GRRM is being sloppy in characterizing one or both of them.

I suspect that, if it's anything, it's Illyrio being sloppy. People who come up with "grand plans" often want to get credit for them. Illyrio's broad hinting could be such an attempt, goading Tyrion — recklessly, yes — into guessing the overall plan and "acknowledging" Illyrio's role in it and the cleverness involved. It has to be like knowing a juicy secret but knowing you can't ever tell anyone; the temptation must be immense, and you might not be able to stop yourself from dropping hints.

<snip>

I think you're absolutely right — Varys really couldn't give a shit about the smallfolk. People need to stop paying attention to what he says and start paying attention to what he does, like, as you said, killing a competent governor for no other reason than to stir up chaos and trouble.