if the dothraki invaded westeros?

[anon76returns]

Senerio time. The Dothraki are engaged in a battle with the Westerlands force led by Tywin, there he is commanding his forces and a stray arrow or loose warrior gets to him and kills him in the midst of battle, the Lannister led forces break and flee at the sight of their dead leige lord. Not likely, some memeber of the Lannisters would rally the troops and take command and press on.

Except that's exactly what happened to the loyalist forces at the Trident after Rhaegar fell. Is it likely? I don't know. But it certainly is not unprecedented. Seeing your leader fall is a huge blow to an army's confidence, and the vast majority of Westerosi forces appear to be the exact kind that is most likely to break under such circumstances- smallfolk levies.

The Dothraki however showed in the book that when a Khal dies, they fracture and choose to follow who they see as strong leaders, this could be a number of different factions. Imagine Drogo, a warrior leader who likes to fight from the front, like all great Dothraki Khals, is killed in battle, the chaos created by this fracturing process that would follow would lead the the destruction of the Dothraki, especially with the inceased vulnerablility with them being an invading force, not on the Dothraki Sea where the new factions could flee and regroup.

What we saw in the books was after a battle, however. I imagine in the heat of a battle the various divisions within the army (I can't remember if the Khas is the subunit and the Ko is the leader of the subunit, or vice versa) act fairly autonomously, so the death of Drogo would not necessarily be decisive in any single engagement, though the Dothraki force would potentially be in trouble afterwards, depending on the outcome of the engagement.

There success depends on Drogo living, and I seriously doubt that he would survive very long. His warrior mentality would have him leading from the front, facing the most dangerous Westrosi knights, plus he is arrogant and unarmoured, making him vulnerable to a plated knight and archers. He isn't going to last very long.

Actually, their success depends on the Targaryen claimant and how many of the great houses he or she could cleave away from Robert. We already know that house Martell would have supported Viserys or Daenarys, and we also learn that the Golden Company had been waiting for orders to sail with the Dothraki. That's already 20,000 Westerosi-style forces (with elephants!) with the 40,000 Dothraki. If House Tyrell breaks from Robert that would give the Targaryen forces about 90,000 Westerosi, with the Dothraki acting as a devastating auxiliary force. In that case it probably wouldn't matter if the Khalasar fractured.

[anon76returns]

Even Varys couldn't conceal 40,000 barbarian horselords trying to cross the narrow sea

Who concealed the Golden Company's crossing? Westeros has the same size east coast as South America. Stannis' fleet has what, about 100 ships to cover the ~5000 miles of coastline from the Vale down to Dorne. The royal fleet is simply too small to stretch out to cover that sort of area, and too slow to intercept the Dothraki fleet if they follow an unanticipated route.

[anon76returns]

I'd start to worry if it was 40,000 of the unsullied that were coming ot the shores of Westros...

The Dothraki while capable warriors on their own have zero armor and will find arrows and siege eqiupment hard to just shrug off..

The Dothraki are primarily horse archers, and our only source on the subject (Jorah) claims that the Dothraki bows outrange the Westerosi bows. A mounted archer force of 40,000 that can hit you and wheel away before your archers can come within range would be deadly to the Westerosi peasant levies, and unsupported heavy cavalry can become vulnerable, especially if the Dothraki arrows manage to kill the knights' horses.

[King Aemon I]

Horsemen can defeat larger armies even if they lack armor and they are mostly archers.. History proves that, don't you think?

[Morienthar]

The Dothraki are primarily horse archers, and our only source on the subject (Jorah) claims that the Dothraki bows outrange the Westerosi bows. A mounted archer force of 40,000 that can hit you and wheel away before your archers can come within range would be deadly to the Westerosi peasant levies, and unsupported heavy cavalry can become vulnerable, especially if the Dothraki arrows manage to kill the knights' horses.

Even Genghis Khan whose army was famed for his Mounted Archers didn't solely rely on them,You need a complete army to win any battle,horse archers are brilliant until their ammo lasts then they have to charge and they will be cut down by heavier forces once they do.

[Northbound]

Who's going to give the realm ample warning? The Spider? You do know that he has a vested interest in the Dothraki NOT being caught at sea, don't you?

I said nothing about Varys. I am fully aware of where is loyalty reside. When a 40,000 man army, with just as many horses; is about to embark on a path to war; more people than Varys would have knowledge to this. Kind of hard to hide that many ships. Traders and pirates....anyone across the Narrow Sea, who's stands to lose income should Dany and Drogo win; would have no issue alerting the Iron Throne.

You also suggest that a good number of Houses would throw their support to Dany, prehaps. But say Dany and her army win, without suffering massive loss of life...what then? Are you going to say that the seven kingdoms will be happy with tens of thousands of Dothrak(people they view as savages and in no way follow the laws or culture of the realm), will be happy and content with them staying in the country? Are they going to greet them with open arms? Break bread, share their wine, crops, land, resources, maybe have their daughters marry in to the Dothraki?? Will Dany send her "blood of my blood" home, of course not. There is no quicker way to untie a country, than facing an invasion, by a different culture, race, the unknown or a change in their way of life. Even the power hunger Tyrell's would sooner keep the staus quo and wait for a better opportunity, than side with 40,000 "savages".

[E-Ro]

Who concealed the Golden Company's crossing? Westeros has the same size east coast as South America. Stannis' fleet has what, about 100 ships to cover the ~5000 miles of coastline from the Vale down to Dorne. The royal fleet is simply too small to stretch out to cover that sort of area, and too slow to intercept the Dothraki fleet if they follow an unanticipated route.

Yes it's vast all the more chance for the dothraki to be lost at sea or land somewhere unviable to their horses. As well why would the royal fleet which is vmconposed of warships be too slow to intercept a fleet of ships jam packed with people horses and food to feed so many?

[E-Ro]

The Dothraki are primarily horse archers, and our only source on the subject (Jorah) claims that the Dothraki bows outrange the Westerosi bows. A mounted archer force of 40,000 that can hit you and wheel away before your archers can come within range would be deadly to the Westerosi peasant levies, and unsupported heavy cavalry can become vulnerable, especially if the Dothraki arrows manage to kill the knights' horses.

I don't have the quotes describing westerosi armies on me now but I will post them later. They have boarding on their horses as well so they are for the most part not going to take much damage from hit and run arrow fire. What's more, westerosi arrows will do way more damage to the dothraki becaus they don't use armor.

[conon394]

Drogo definitely had the wherewithal to get his people across the Narrow Sea if given enough time.

No he really does not unless GRRM waves the magic want of what is the word logistics you speak of i have never heard of it...

A: Assuming the Dothraki under Drogo head to Pentos for the 'shortest' hop to Westeros, the first question I have is how can 40,000 Dothraki plus horses plus all thier non combatants even eat?

B: Using the wall a trip from Pentos to KL assuming some of the best speeds ever manged by the Great Galleys of Venice from England/Flanders to Home you are still looking at 9-10 days and that is a best case. That means you cannot just toss horses on whatever ship, but need real horse transports. Classical era or Crusades that is usually about 30 horses per ship at the top end. And... 10 days means around 250lbs of grass hay for each horse for the voyage.

C: So that means for a single hop invasion Drogo would need ~1300 horse transports and 5000 tons of grass hey. This allows only one horse per Dothraki which more or less give the likelihood of loss in loading, transport and unloading makes the Dothraki at best unarmored Light cavalry with no remounts so in no position to use any Steppe warfare vs Westeros. Note in addition given the demonstrable non functionality of the Dothraki at sea they are unlikely to be serviceable as Marines, or at the oar or running the sails so you have 40,000 passengers and need to find the crews to manage all the ships in question and the ones needed to carry the Dothraki and the escorts needed to defend them.

If you want that - feints, fast movement etc you need to figure at least 3 horse per man at a very very bare minimum and at least 1 more for loss issues. So that is 5300+ ships and 20,000 tons of hay...

--------------------

Who concealed the Golden Company's crossing? Westeros has the same size east coast as South America. Stannis' fleet has what, about 100 ships to cover the ~5000 miles of coastline from the Vale down to Dorne. The royal fleet is simply too small to stretch out to cover that sort of area, and too slow to intercept the Dothraki fleet if they follow an unanticipated route.

They don't need to patrol - if even marginally realistic the logistics and ships needed to even just feed 40,000 screamers with only one horse and the hay needed for the trip would be so obvious that it would be trivial to locate wherever the Dothraki were massing.

[BreastplateWithNipples]

Anyone who thinks a Dothraki invasion would cause the Westerosi lords to set aside their quarrels and unite to fight the heathen horde... should pick up a history book and read about the Mongol invasions. The "Tartars from hell" invaded Hungary and pillaged the country up and down but neither the emperor nor anyone else lifted a finger.

It would be the same for Westeros: If the Dothraki land in the crownlands, Robb Stark would be like "huh, good for us", if they land in Dorne everyone would be like "well that's the Martell's problem not mine". Same with the Reach, the Stormlands and so on.

Westeros is a very large place, there are 1000s of kilometers between the kingdoms so you wouldn't naturally care much what happened to other regions.

[Corvo Attano]

Who concealed the Golden Company's crossing? Westeros has the same size east coast as South America. Stannis' fleet has what, about 100 ships to cover the ~5000 miles of coastline from the Vale down to Dorne. The royal fleet is simply too small to stretch out to cover that sort of area, and too slow to intercept the Dothraki fleet if they follow an unanticipated route.

The Golden Company were about a fifth of the size of the Dothraki, and had little or no horses. And even though they did managed to pass undetected, they all got seperated and a sizeable ammount of them were completley lost. As for where they landed, if they made for the North, theres no way they would survive even a few weeks, if they made for Dorne, they would have a pretty hard time getting all their horses over the mountains, if they made for anywhere near KL/Blackwater Bay, they would be spotted from miles off, their only hope would be going for cape wrath.

[anon76returns]

Yes it's vast all the more chance for the dothraki to be lost at sea or land somewhere unviable to their horses.

If they're unlucky enough to get hit by a storm they could be scattered, but otherwise I see no reason that their fleet would break up with a fair weather crossing.

As well why would the royal fleet which is vmconposed of warships be too slow to intercept a fleet of ships jam packed with people horses and food to feed so many?

If the coastline is 5000 miles long, and the royal fleet has no idea where the crossing is coming from, then the optimal intercept method (assuming they don't want to split their fleet) would be to camp out in the middle, with 2500 miles of coast on either side. If the Dothraki fleet picked on of the extremes, that would leave the royal fleet having to cover 2500 miles in the time it took the Dothraki to cover ~3-500 miles. That's what I mean about being too slow.

[King Aerys the Just]

If you want that - feints, fast movement etc you need to figure at least 3 horse per man at a very very bar minimum and at least i more for loss issues. So that is 5300+ ships and 20,000 tons of hay...

This here should be reposted a couple of dozen times in every Dothraki thread.

Khal Drogo might as well have tried getting his Khalasar to the moon.

[anon76returns]

The Golden Company were about a fifth of the size of the Dothraki, and had little or no horses.

They were exactly 1/4 the size of the Dothraki, and had 1,000 cavalry with 2,000 horses (and elephants!). It's actually one of the better described forces in the books.

And even though they did managed to pass undetected, they all got seperated and a sizeable ammount of them were completley lost.

They got hit by a terrible, unexpected storm, at apparently the same time that Samwell, Tyrion, and Victarion were hit. If it was a single storm system (as I tend to believe), it would represent a rather unlucky occurrence for all these seafairers. In contrast, Stannis sailed up the narrow sea all the way to eastwatch without a problem. If Westeros is depending on a divine wind to spare them from invasion, then they had better keep in mind the gods are seldom good.

As for where they landed, if they made for the North, theres no way they would survive even a few weeks, if they made for Dorne, they would have a pretty hard time getting all their horses over the mountains, if they made for anywhere near KL/Blackwater Bay, they would be spotted from miles off, their only hope would be going for cape wrath.

Why wouldn't they survive in the North? The Ironborn seemed to do fine up there. The Dothraki survive winter fine on the Dothraki sea, why would they be so inconvenienced by summer or fall in The North? Being spotted a day's sail out would not matter much if the opposing army was not mobile enough to meet you at the beachhead. What if they land at OldTown?

[anon76returns]

I don't have the quotes describing westerosi armies on me now but I will post them later. They have boarding on their horses as well so they are for the most part not going to take much damage from hit and run arrow fire. What's more, westerosi arrows will do way more damage to the dothraki becaus they don't use armor.

I'll see when you provide the quotes. I don't recall anything about the knight's horses wearing barding in the books, though perhaps I've forgotten. I do know that crusader knight's in at least one battle (Hattin) had their horses all shot out from under them. And of course Westerosi arrows are only dangerous when they are within range, which doesn't come until some time after they've been in range of Dothraki arrows. How many archers are there in a Westerosi army of 20-30,000? What would be the casualty impact on all of those archers as they moved into range, while being pounded by 40,000 opposition archers that outrange them and which can quickly move back out of range and redeploy?

[Light a wight tonight]

Why wouldn't they survive in the North? The Ironborn seemed to do fine up there. The Dothraki survive winter fine on the Dothraki sea, why would they be so inconvenienced by summer or fall in The North? Being spotted a day's sail out would not matter much if the opposing army was not mobile enough to meet you at the beachhead. What if they land at OldTown?

If you notice, Stannis is in the North and he's snowed in. And his army is reduced to eating their horses. Unmounted Dothraki in deep snow without cold weather gear would seem to be pretty ineffective.

The Ironborn depend on ships, not horses, and the last I've seen of them they were getting their collective ass kicked. (This is in the real North.)

As to landing in Oldtown, the seas in that area are patrolled by Ironborn. Do you think they'd be willing to share the loot with invaders? Ironborn ships are war galleys, the Dothraki would be in cargo ships. Guess who loses in a conflict like that.

[anon76returns]

You also suggest that a good number of Houses would throw their support to Dany, prehaps. But say Dany and her army win, without suffering massive loss of life...what then? Are you going to say that the seven kingdoms will be happy with tens of thousands of Dothrak (people they view as savages and in no way follow the laws or culture of the realm), will be happy and content with them staying in the country?

The smallfolk may or may not be happy, but if the lords and their bannermen are happy then it will unfortunately make little difference. Westeros has been conquered many times, by the First Men, by the Andals, and by the Targaryens. They have also managed to get by while absorbing the very foreign customs of the Ironborn and the Rhoynar. If Mace Tyrell is given the position of Hand, and Paxter Redwyne the position of Lord Admiral, then I believe that the majority of Tyrell bannermen would be quite happy. If Adrienne Martell marries Viserys (ack), then I imagine House Martell and the majority of Dornish houses would be happy. If the Stormlands, Vale, Westlands, Crownlands, and Riverlands were defeated militarily, I imagine they'd be unhappy with the situation, but depending on the political skill of the new regime (this would obviously have to come from a stronger mind than Viserys) they might all eventually get along as well as they did in the early years of Aerys.

[TheWanderer]

It would be the same for Westeros: If the Dothraki land in the crownlands, Robb Stark would be like "huh, good for us", if they land in Dorne everyone would be like "well that's the Martell's problem not mine". Same with the Reach, the Stormlands and so on.

It depends on when exactly the Dothraki invasion comes. You're right that the Westerosi are unlikely to suddenly drop their wars if they are already heavily invested in fighting. Of course if it happens before/around when the fighting breaks out then that invasion would be the quickest way to have piece between the parties. The Dothraki are foreign in every sense of the world and their presence in Westeros is a threat to the way of life of every single person in Westeros, to think that isn't going to have an effect on where the Houses loyalty lies is foolish. And drawing historical comparisions about the unity of Westeros is weak at best, no medieval empire ever ruled a region the size of the Americas.

f it was a single storm system (as I tend to believe), it would represent a rather unlucky occurrence for all these seafairers. In contrast, Stannis sailed up the narrow sea all the way to eastwatch without a problem.

It was a fall storm, which are noted to be common in that season. Stannis was sailing up the coast, coastal sailing and open sea sailing are different beasts so Stannis' success doesn't really imply anything about the success of the Dothraki. And that's of course leaving aside the fact that Stannis is a seasoned naval commander and his ships are crewed by experienced sailors, the Dothraki are neither.

The Ironborn seemed to do fine up there. The Dothraki survive winter fine on the Dothraki sea, why would they be so inconvenienced by summer or fall in The North?

The Ironborn come from a region that is only slightly more hospitable (if that) than the North, it is in no way a dramatic climate shift for them to be in the North. Winter on the Dothraki Sea is a very different beast to winter in the North. It snows in the summer in the North (not always, but often enough that it isn't veiwed as strange), have the Dothraki ever even seen snow? And aside from the simple weather there is the very different climate and geography of the North. The North is a land of forests, not grasslands; a land of mountains and hills, not fields and plains. The Dothraki don't know how to survive in such a landscape, let alone how to fight.

What if they land at OldTown?

Old Town is on the other side of Westeros, do you really think a fleet of the size the Dothraki require could circle Westeros without anyone noticing? Never mind the food issues that creates. And of course neglect that traveling to Old Town requires passing through the aegis of all three of Westeros' power-fleets.

Westeros has been conquered many times, by the First Men, by the Andals, and by the Targaryens. They have also managed to get by while absorbing the very foreign customs of the Ironborn and the Rhoynar.

1) The First Men, Ironborn and Rhoynar cultures are all geographically isolated, the Dothraki in the Crownlands would not be. That changes how well they can interact together.

2) The Targaryeans adopted the native culture in almost every aspect, almost certainly because they recognized that not doing so would be a bad idea.

3) None of the invading cultures you mentioned based it's entire culture around slavery, something that the people of Westeros find inherently disgusting.

4) Each of the invasions you mention was countered by a unified Westeros (at least as far as we can tell), even though during those periods the idea of a unified Westeros didn't even exist. How does that support your argument?

[conon394]

How many archers are there in a Westerosi army of 20-30,000? What would be the casualty impact on all of those archers as they moved into range, while being pounded by 40,000 opposition archers that outrange them and which can quickly move back out of range and redeploy?

Since when the Dothraki archers out range the archer of Westros?

What makes you think then can move out of range and resupply? Again the pro-Dothraki crowd consistently uses the silent assumption that the Dothraki are using steppe tactics which requires realistically 5 - 9 (above I allowed 3 but that would likely seriously put a dent in the long term viability of Steppe tactics) steppe ponies per man. However we have have never see any such evidence provided to that effect. More importantly if the quotes from GRRM reading about Selmy and the Battle of Meereen are correct than the Dothraki are not even riding steppe ponies.

If you really expect the Dothraki to outmaneuver a Westeros army and win by archery alone you need to explain how Drogo is going to get not 40,000 horses but something more like 200,000 horse to Westros

[anon76returns]

Even Genghis Khan whose army was famed for his Mounted Archers didn't solely rely on them,You need a complete army to win any battle,horse archers are brilliant until their ammo lasts then they have to charge and they will be cut down by heavier forces once they do.

Even in the most pessimistic scenario the Dothraki would have Dorne and the Golden Company as allies. And even on their own, if the Dothraki could eliminate the opposing archers and dismount the opposing heavy cavalry before their arrows ran out, a Dothraki charge could be quite effective in routing the remaining Westerosi, especially if the Westerosi were outnumbered to begin with (e.g. a riverlands, wastelands, or stormlands army alone with 25-35,000 troops).