Littlefinger's Long Game... (a theory of Baelish's long term plan)

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Clearly Littlefinger has had his "fingers" in a lot of what's gone on since even book one of A Game of Thrones. Let's take a look at the things he is known to have done, and how those may play together into a "Long Game" strategy for getting Littlefinger to where he ultimate wants to get, which is to rule, either by proxy, or perhaps even as the one actually sitting on the Throne.

To understand Littlefinger's Long Game, we need to go all the way back to where it began.

Everyone knows the story of Petyr's birth to the smallest of houses, and his subsequent fostering by Hoster Tully, being raised amongst his own children. Petyr eventually fell in love with Catelyn, and ends up challenging Brandon Stark to a duel for Catelyn which he of course loses. He ends up taking Lysa's maidenhead (and claims to have taken Catelyn's though it is believed to have been Lysa which he confused for Catelyn while drunk). Lysa gets pregnant, Hoster kicks him out of Riverrun for not being noble enough to marry one of his daughters, and Petyr eventually is appointed as Master of Coin by Jon Arryn due to his financial skills.

Petyr learned a valuable lesson from Brandon, that his path to what he wanted would not be gained through skill with a sword, so he honed his mental skills with money, spying and manipulation to get what he wants, but he still has astronomical ambitions.

IMO, many people wrongly believe that Littlefinger is simply an opportunist, and is just making moves of the moment to further his ambition, but I believe that while it's true that he is a fantastic opportunist, he also has a Long Game, ie a plan to get him the power he feels he deserves.

So, Game of Thrones begins with Littlefinger already as Master of Coin, and Jon Arryn, the Hand of the King, dead. We learn that Littlefinger convinced Lysa to poison her own husband, Jon so that they could be together. He also convinced Lysa to write to Catelyn and lead her to believe that Jon Arryn was killed by the Lannisters. I also believe that Petyr encouraged Lysa to keep the the Vale's army at home, which will become important latter.

So with one fell stroke of manipulation, Littlefinger has managed to get rid of Lysa's husband, the Hand of the King, to set the Lannisters and the Starks against each other, and open an opportunity for him to marry Lysa giving him the ability to claim the Vale for himself.

When Ned arrives in KL, he "helps" Ned discover the twincest, which appears to confirm what Lysa told Catelyn. He does take the opportunity to place blame on Tyrion when the assassination plot is uncovered. I personally believe that Petyr may have helped Joffrey hire the assassin to further create a division between the Starks and the Lannisters. When Robert dies, he puts Ned up to challenging the legitimacy of Joffrey and blames Lannisters for killing Arryn to coverup for the twincest. When Petyr doesn't support Ned's power playing, after basically puttign him up to it, it leads to Ned's death, sending the North into revolt.

His original plan was to get the Lannisters to murder Ned for discovering Cersei's incest with her brother, and then for Renly to depose Cersei as Queen by revealing that they murdered Ned. Renly would then propose Margery Tyrell as Robert's new Queen (remember the portrait Renly showed Ned of Margery?). His alliance with Renly and the Tyrells would put him in position to get named Hand of the King, marrying Lysa and becoming Regent for the Warden of the Vale.

That plan was ruined when Cersei killed Robert instead of Ned. This complicated his plan, because the Lannisters were in control of the Throne, and obviously weren't going to give up power based on even evidence of incest. Littlefinger then altered his plan by planning to replace Robert with Renly. Then Ned decided to support Stannis's claim over Renly's, so Littlefinger had to manipulate Ned by suggesting Ned's power play which eventually led to Ned's imprisonment and death (I do wonder if Littlefinger didn't suggest to Joffrey that he needed to show strength and kill Ned, not let him take the black).

So now, plan #2, came into view... To get Renly and the Tyrell's to take the throne by force, helped by the Starks looking for revenge on the Lannisters and become Renly's Hand of the King. Of course Stannis unknowingly thwarted this plot with the untimely death of Renly.

So Lord Baelish had to go back to the drawing board yet again. He brokered the truce between the Tyrells and the Lannisters in exchange for getting the Lord of Harrenhall, but he wasn't doing this for the Lannister's benefit, he was doing if for his own. This was at least be sufficient enough to finally claim Lysa's hand and become Regent for the Warden of the Vale. This was evidenced because he also secretly plotted with the Tyrell's to murder Joffrey. His interests obviously lie closer to the Tyrells than the Lannisters.

Petyr then marries Lysa, becomes the Regent for the Warden of the Vale and travels to the Eyrie, where he kills her and attempts to take power of his own. We know that Littlefinger plans to wed Sansa Stark to Harry the Heir who as a couple would be heirs to both the North and the Vale (once Robert Arryn dies). We know he did not ask the Lannisters for any help, and instead, only asked for some of Robert Baratheon's old tapestries from the Throne Room, which Cersei apparently sent to him. What does he want with those tapestries, and what is his new plan going forward?

To understand that, I think it's important to look at the people I believe are helping Littlefinger.

We know that the Kettleblacks are ultimately on his payroll.

We know that Aurane Waters convinced Cersei to build a Royal Fleet, which almost immediately went missing, and is rumored to be in the Stepstones.

We know that he has a fairly close alliance with the Tyrells, and that they have consistently been part of his plans since the very beginning. We know that Loras Tyrell was reported to have been greviously injured at Dragonstone, but this information came only from Aurane Waters.

I believe that Aurane Waters is working for Littlefinger, and it was his plot all along to get Cersei to build him a fleet. What does Littlefinger need a fleet for? Well, the Vale is extremely accessible by boat, and it is a very short trip from the Vale to King's Landing. Is the fleet large enough to carry the Knights of the Vale to assault King's landing?

But why is the fleet in the stepstones instead of heading to the Vale if this is true? And how will Littlefinger convince the Vale (and possibly the North) to raise banners against King's Landing?

The Stepstones, are however, close to Lys, which is where Edric Storm (acknowledged bastard of Robert Baratheon, not legitimized mind you but acknowledged) is in hiding.

To really dispute the Lannister claim to the throne, the Tyrell's and Littlefinger would need a suitor of their own. So Littlefinger's plan is to offer Margery to Edric and have the Knights of the Vale and the Tyrells support him for the throne.

The first step in this plan would be to get Edric and Margery to the Vale, which is where Aurane Waters once he joins with Saladhor Saan (accompanied by the perfectly healthy Loras Tyrell) who will head to Lys to propose the idea to Edric. Assuming he's up to it (and why wouldn't he be), the alliance will be formed, and simultaneously the Kettleblacks will free Margery from King's Landing and take her to the Vale as well.

The second step in this plan is to de-legitimize Tommen's rule, for this, Littlefinger is using Robert Baratheon's tapestries from the throne room which likely depict the linneage of the Baratheon's. Littlefinger will use those same Tapestries to implicate the Lannisters in the death of the Jon Arryn (who he'll claim learned the truth, and was killed by Cersei to protect her twincest), which is why he got Lysa to write that letter to Catelyn implicating the Lannisters in the first place when it was Lysa herself.

So then you have a claimant to the throne in Edric Storm married to Margery Tyrell, the Tyrells attacking by land, the Vale attacking via sea, and Aurane Waters, Saladhor Saan, and Redwyne's fleet providing the Navy.

The first sign that this is true will be Margery's escape and Mace and the Tyrell's leaving King's Landing.

Once King's Landing is secured for the Tyrell's and the Vale, I think Littlefinger will even turn on the Tyrells. His final end game is to destroy the nobility, and place himself at the head of whatever is left, but that's so far down the road that much will change between now and then.

Now will his plan work? I'm not so sure. Sansa doesn't seem too keen on Littlefinger planning for Robert Arryn to die, and may not play along. Plus Euron attacking the Reach could complicate things tremendously.

[Napyura]

Altho its a good plan. The main flaw in it is Edric himself, prolly Loras learned of Edric's ventures to the Essos from Dragonstone, but before that how could he know, why would they attack Dragonstone without knowing if he is there at all, there could be leak and Dragonstone is fragile, but Loras is needed elsewhere. And I am certain he spied on Tyrell's wish to marry Sansa and personally told that to Tywin and Sansa could've been framed for poisoning if she wasn't smuggled out of there immediatetly. Tyrells are fine with current situation at the court, I don't know why they should delegitimize "Baratheon widow" Margaery once again for a bastard over the sea. The thing about LF is that we don't know his meta plan, yet. And the fact that most of Vale lords are figuring out he is behind stalling them from joining the war is also a big con to his further plan.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Altho its a good plan. The main flaw in it is Edric himself, prolly Loras learned of Edric's ventures to the Essos from Dragonstone, but before that how could he know, why would they attack Dragonstone without knowing if he is there at all, there could be leak and Dragonstone is fragile, but Loras is needed elsewhere. And I am certain he spied on Tyrell's wish to marry Sansa and personally told that to Tywin and Sansa could've been framed for poisoning if she wasn't smuggled out of there immediatetly. Tyrells are fine with current situation at the court, I don't know why they should delegitimize "Baratheon widow" Margaery once again for a bastard over the sea. The thing about LF is that we don't know his meta plan, yet. And the fact that most of Vale lords are figuring out he is behind stalling them from joining the war is also a big con to his further plan.

Well I submit that this IS his meta plan, now that his original (Hand of the King with a Robert Baratheon/Margery Tyrell Kingdom) and his second plan (Hand of the King with a Renly Baratheon/Margery Tyrell Kingom) have both failed because of chance. Edric is his next path to becoming Hand of the King.

He'd always planned to keep the Vale out of the fight, and claim it for his own, so that he would have an in tact army at his disposal.

As for how Littlefinger knew, he may have originally thought Edric was at Dragonstone, which is why Loras went there. When he wasn't, he likely discovered Edric was in Lys through contacts in Lys, so Loras and Aurane Waters went there searching for him, since that was their original goal.

[C0bR]

How exactly is LF supposed to profit from this all?

[TheTowerOfJoy]

How exactly is LF supposed to profit from this all?

He becomes Hand of the King, wielding the true power over the realm.

[Napyura]

Well I submit that this IS his meta plan, now that his original (Hand of the King with a Robert Baratheon/Margery Tyrell Kingdom) and his second plan (Hand of the King with a Renly Baratheon/Margery Tyrell Kingom) have both failed because of chance. Edric is his next path to becoming Hand of the King.

He'd always planned to keep the Vale out of the fight, and claim it for his own, so that he would have an in tact army at his disposal.

As for how Littlefinger knew, he may have originally thought Edric was at Dragonstone, which is why Loras went there. When he wasn't, he likely discovered Edric was in Lys through contacts in Lys, so Loras and Aurane Waters went there searching for him, since that was their original goal.

Or Castellan told him, if he knew Edric would be at Eyrie by now.

I simply don't buy it how the biggest opportunist has to still bother with such things as being hand of the king as he is defacto lord of Vale, Lord of Harrenhall, and Lord of 99% sold souls in Westeros. I know he just keeps hunting for more, but he is now with new batch of problems, and this time its on him directly. Hand of the King would bring him defacto problems, but not for long. What if Gendry?

[C0bR]

He becomes Hand of the King, wielding the true power over the realm.

And why would Tyrells give it to him?

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Or Castellan told him, if he knew Edric would be at Eyrie by now.

I simply don't buy it how the biggest opportunist has to still bother with such things as being hand of the king as he is defacto lord of Vale, Lord of Harrenhall, and Lord of 99% sold souls in Westeros. I know he just keeps hunting for more, but he is now with new batch of problems, and this time its on him directly. Hand of the King would bring him defacto problems, but not for long.

That's just it, he's not really Lord of the Vale or Lord of Harenhall, they are simply empty titles he's using to gain real power. In their current states, neither title is long term maintainable... they're just another rung on the ladder to the true power as Hand, we're he'd basically be King until Edric came of age.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

And why would Tyrells give it to him?

For his assitance in using the Knights of the Vale and Aurane Waters Fleet to help claim the Throne from the Lannisters...

[TheTowerOfJoy]

And why would Tyrells give it to him?

It also turns out the Tyrells might need that Fleet to help fight back against Euron's attacks.

[C0bR]

It also turns out the Tyrells might need that Fleet to help fight back against Euron's attacks.

Waters' fleet is small. I am sure that he does not have more than 10 ships. That means nothing in both senses of transporting any military force and in helping Redwyne's 200 ships strong fleet.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Waters' fleet is small. I am sure that he does not have more than 10 ships. That means nothing in both senses of transporting any military force and in helping Redwyne's 200 ships strong fleet.

In the books it says it's a fleet of three decked Drommonds, which are huge, well armed ships. I suspect it's more than 10 of them, though you're right that we don't know exactly how many. But he's also pirating in the Stonesteps, most likely enlisting Saladhor Saan's fleet with his own. That pirating will yield more ships as well. Loras is likely enroute to Lys to get Edric, and by the time he's back and Margery is freed, there should be a pretty sizeable navy under Waters command, plenty enough to move the Knights of the Vale to King's Landing, and to ferry any Tyrells across the blackwater as needed.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

This is a good theory but it isn't what I'm planning on ultimately. What I mean to do is deliver the North to Sansa and have her take the Iron Throne with Harry as her king. She'd make me her hand and I'd be the true power in the realm. Edric Storm doesn't really factor into my ambitions.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

That means nothing in both senses of transporting any military force and in helping Redwyne's 200 ships strong fleet.

The Tyrell's of course command Redwyne's fleet, but at least some of them are needed to engaging Euron to protect the Reach. Plus these are very LARGE ships equipped with heavy weaponry, quite possibly enough to bombard King's Landing and breach the walls from the Blackwater.

Still, between Water's, Saan, and Redwyne, the Tyrell's and Littlefinger would by far own the largest fleet in existence.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

This is a good theory but it isn't what I'm planning on ultimately. What I mean to do is deliver the North to Sansa and have her take the Iron Throne with Harry as her king. She'd make me her hand and I'd be the true power in the realm. Edric Storm doesn't really factor into my ambitions.

Haha. It's too bad that Manderly and Stannis are about to produce Rickon, who would be ahead of Sansa in the line of succession. You'll have to do something about that. Perhaps this whole Edric thing could be a nice little distraction to weaken the Tyrell's and the Lannisters while you work that one out :)

[C0bR]

The Tyrell's of course command Redwyne's fleet, but they are still on the other side of Westeros, and will likely be engaging Euron soon...

Still, between Water's, Saan, and Redwyne, the Tyrell's and Littlefinger would by far own the largest fleet in existence.

Problem is that Tyrells are not ones that will give away a position such as the Hand, especially to a man like LF. Problem with him is that he still does not hold any real power. Harry the Heir will not remain his puppet for long, even if LF gifts him the Vale. Aurane's fleet of 10(I checked) + some captured ships without a proper crew is not going to cut it.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Haha. It's too bad that Manderly and Stannis are about to produce Rickon, who would be ahead of Sansa in the line of succession. You'll have to do something about that. Perhaps this whole Edric thing could be a nice little distraction to weaken the Tyrell's and the Lannisters while you work that one out :)

I could probably make sure Rickon weds Shireen and they rule the North and Stormsend. I'd have Selyse killed and propose Stannis married Sansa, after Harry is killed.

[Albertine]

I just don't buy a theory that relies on evidence that we haven't seen--the tapestries could be a clue, but if Littlefinger's goal were to prove the Lannister incest, Jon Arryn and Ned Stark both found what they thought to be sufficient proof of that without any tapestries, and Littlefinger killed both of them. So the tapestries will show something different.

Littlefinger's knowledge of & interest in Edric Storm. One of Robert Baratheon's sixteen bastards, of which we know at least three are still alive, and two are adult males. Possible, but we don't really have any solid clues.

But most of all: Littlefinger's desire to be Hand. Why would he want to be Hand? As people keep reminding us, it's a really rough job. A lot of Hands end up unpopular or dead.

The only reason to assume that Littlefinger wants to be Hand is because we assume that he's decided to aim for 'the most visible right-hand man position possible'. That just doesn't sound like Littlefinger to me.

Edited to add: Littlefinger has discovered that there's not much that he cannot DO in his current position. He doesn't NEED power. So what does he WANT? That's the only thing that matters, and we don't have much insight into that question.

[The Crow]

guys, guys, guys...isn't it obvious? LF plan is to expose Varys as Ned Starks Mother!

[not in the face]

How would he have met Aurane Waters? And why him out of everyone that was captured?