Littlefinger's Long Game... (a theory of Baelish's long term plan)

[Night'sQueen]

I could probably make sure Rickon weds Shireen and they rule the North and Stormsend. I'd have Selyse killed and propose Stannis married Sansa, after Harry is killed.

It's bad enough to keep pimping out Sansa. Stay away from everybody's favorite unicorn-warging cannibal king.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

It's bad enough to keep pimping out Sansa. Stay away from everybody's favorite unicorn-warging cannibal king.

he's on the ladder. He's fair game.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I just don't buy a theory that relies on evidence that we haven't seen--the tapestries could be a clue, but if Littlefinger's goal were to prove the Lannister incest, Jon Arryn and Ned Stark both found what they thought to be sufficient proof of that without any tapestries, and Littlefinger killed both of them. So the tapestries will show something different.

Because both Jon Arryn and Ned Stark stood in his way as Hand of the King. He could not become Hand of the King, or Hand of the King AND Lord Protector of the Value in Arryn's case while they were alive.

He didn't want it exposed by them, he wanted to expose it at the right time to put his choice on the throne.

Littlefinger's knowledge of & interest in Edric Storm. One of Robert Baratheon's sixteen bastards, of which we know at least three are still alive, and two are adult males. Possible, but we don't really have any solid clues.

Aurane Waters helped Loras invade Dragonstone, the last known location of Edric Storm. So there's at least one possible clue.

But most of all: Littlefinger's desire to be Hand. Why would he want to be Hand? As people keep reminding us, it's a really rough job. A lot of Hands end up unpopular or dead.

The only reason to assume that Littlefinger wants to be Hand is because we assume that he's decided to aim for 'the most visible right-hand man position possible'. That just doesn't sound like Littlefinger to me.

Edited to add: Littlefinger has discovered that there's not much that he cannot DO in his current position. He doesn't NEED power. So what does he WANT? That's the only thing that matters, and we don't have much insight into that question.

Well, it's another Rung on the ladder, and it's one with REAL power that he could use to get whatever he wants, real lands, real titles, etc... Not to mention, it would be a great spot to make a power play on the throne for himself if he desired it, but one rung at a time...

[TheTowerOfJoy]

How would he have met Aurane Waters? And why him out of everyone that was captured?

Admittedly this is just a guess that he could have met Waters in the dungeons following the Blackwater and suggested him to Cersei as a possible commander of a Royal Navy. I doubt that Cersei came up with that idea completely on her own.

Littlefinger has a history of manipulating Cersei as well with his little monologue to Sansa about Cersei's incompetence, so this could have been another way he manipulated her, by having her build him a Navy.

And lastly the connection to the Tyrell's is that Aurane Waters was seen at the Royal Wedding talking to Ellinor Tyrell, so that fits in with my Littlefinger/Tyrell alliance theory.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Problem is that Tyrells are not ones that will give away a position such as the Hand, especially to a man like LF. Problem with him is that he still does not hold any real power. Harry the Heir will not remain his puppet for long, even if LF gifts him the Vale. Aurane's fleet of 10(I checked) + some captured ships without a proper crew is not going to cut it.

Again, what he's really bringing to the table is proof of the illegitimacy of Tommen (current King) and Myrcella (the Martell's current claimant, which are the Tyrell's enemies), and more importantly the Knight's of the Vale, motivated by Jon Arryn's death to support Edric Storm and Margery Tyrell for the Throne, with support from who they believe to be the legitimate Lady of Winterfell, so the old Northern Lords are at least plausible to be on board, especially once Stannis and Bolton weaken each other.

Plus, if Littlefinger has been working with the Tyrell's all along, as I am theorizing then it would make sense.

[Albertine]

Because both Jon Arryn and Ned Stark stood in his way as Hand of the King. He could not become Hand of the King, or Hand of the King AND Lord Protector of the Value in Arryn's case while they were alive.

He didn't want it exposed by them, he wanted to expose it at the right time to put his choice on the throne.

You missed my point. They had proof that did not require tapestries. So why do we believe that the tapestries show this thing that everyone already knows & which can be proven by other means?

Aurane Waters helped Loras invade Dragonstone, the last known location of Edric Storm. So there's at least one possible clue.

Edric Storm fled Dragonstone and has good reason to stay gone. I would believe that Littlefinger has his finger in any given pie, but I'm not sure why he'd pick this one. It sounds messy--picking one bastard to raise up over several others, championing the Baratheon dynasty when the real Baratheon supporters currently belong to Stannis, raising a bastard to the crown. The Tyrells don't seem unhappy with Tommen, as far as I can tell, so why engineer a switch?

Well, it's another Rung on the ladder, and it's one with REAL power that he could use to get whatever he wants, real lands, real titles, etc... Not to mention, it would be a great spot to make a power play on the throne for himself if he desired it, but one rung at a time...

Like I said in my last post: from his current position, he can DO anything he wants. He's proven it more than once. That's real power, as much as the great lords possess. As much as the King possesses, although he has to suffer a lot of disrespect.

The question is what he WANTS. Does he want the Throne? How can we be sure of that?

And the King's Hand, as Tyrion and Ned both discovered, speaks for the King. With a sufficiently biddable King, Littlefinger could prosper in that position...but why? Again, he can already DO what he wants, only now he doesn't have to worry about being held responsible for a King's mistakes.

I am not sure I have any idea what Littlefinger really wants.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

You missed my point. They had proof that did not require tapestries. So why do we believe that the tapestries show this thing that everyone already knows & which can be proven by other means?

But Littlefinger is in the Vale, do you think Cersei will send him the book of Linneages if he asked her for it? She's crazy and not as bright as she thinks she is, but even she's not stupid enough to send him that book.

The tapestries serve a dual purpose. They provide the proof Littlefinger needs, AND they can adorn the walls, in Littlefinger's temporary throne room when he introduces Edric to the Lords of the Vale, and blames the Lannisters for Jon Arryn's death.

Edric Storm fled Dragonstone and has good reason to stay gone. I would believe that Littlefinger has his finger in any given pie, but I'm not sure why he'd pick this one. It sounds messy--picking one bastard to raise up over several others, championing the Baratheon dynasty when the real Baratheon supporters currently belong to Stannis, raising a bastard to the crown. The Tyrells don't seem unhappy with Tommen, as far as I can tell, so why engineer a switch?

Because Tywin is dead, and Cersei is a psychopath, as evidenced by her plot against Margery. She's proven she can't be trusted, and they can't exactly murder the Queen Regent in cold blood. Their plan to turn the tables on her could fail if the Trial By Combat with Robert Strong goes as we believe it will.

De-legitimizing Tommen also de-legitimizes Myrcella, who the Tyrell's enemies (the Martell's) are putting forward as a claimant. Of course Doran moved to try to get Dany, and may now be moving to try to get Aegon, but the Tyrell's don't know that.

Like I said in my last post: from his current position, he can DO anything he wants. He's proven it more than once. That's real power, as much as the great lords possess. As much as the King possesses, although he has to suffer a lot of disrespect.

The question is what he WANTS. Does he want the Throne? How can we be sure of that?

And the King's Hand, as Tyrion and Ned both discovered, speaks for the King. With a sufficiently biddable King, Littlefinger could prosper in that position...but why? Again, he can already DO what he wants, only now he doesn't have to worry about being held responsible for a King's mistakes.

No, he's got titles that he can't keep indefinitely, and lands that he has no army to reclaim. He doesn't have everything he could want, and he doesn't have the power to do everything he wants. He needs to take the next step on the ladder, and it's a big one, from mummer's power to REAL power.

I am not sure I have any idea what Littlefinger really wants.

I'm fairly certain he wants REAL power, not mummer's power but again, this is just a theory.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

he's on the ladder. He's fair game.

Haha. So on point.

By the way, is there any truth to the crackpot theory that you are a bastard of Hoster Tully, which is why Hoster was fostering you in the first place, and why he was so upset when you impregnated Lysa?

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Haha. So on point.

By the way, is there any truth to the crackpot theory that you are a bastard of Hoster Tully, which is why Hoster was fostering you in the first place, and why he was so upset when you impregnated Lysa?

nah. He was just hating on me because I gave his daughter the good wood despite not being noble.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

nah. He was just hating on me because I gave his daughter the good wood despite not being noble.

And why were you a foster of a Lord of Riverrun?

[Littlefingers In The Air]

And why were you a foster of a Lord of Riverrun?

my dad was in good with Hoster Tully

[TheTowerOfJoy]

my dad was in good with Hoster Tully

Or was it Hoster Tully was 'in good' with your mom? heh...

[Littlefingers In The Air]

Or was it Hoster Tully was 'in good' with your mom? heh...

...You talk as if chaos is a gaping pit waiting to swallow us all. But it's a ladder and you're gonna tumble all the way down.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

...You talk as if chaos is a gaping pit waiting to swallow us all. But it's a ladder and you're gonna tumble all the way down.

It was merely a jest, no reason to go tumbling from ladders into a gaping pit of chaos.

[Rahgh Neqaj]

To quote Varys:

Littlefinger loves Littlefinger.

So what does Littlefinger want? Power, Money, Recognition? I'm pretty sure that, in the end, Littlefinger wants to be recognized as equal amongst the high and mighty. I've got the impression that he's primarily driven by the rejection from Hoster Tully and Catelyn; his pride has been hurt badly. But he's clever, so what does he have:

1. He's not an Eunuch, doesn't have any children that we know of but lives in a world where lineage is important. I am pretty sure that he's planning to have children and to have lands that he can pass on to them. But who'll be the mother? My best guess is that he was initially hoping for a widowed Catelyn and the North but that's not feasible any more and him taking control of the North against Ned's sons was a long shot in the first place. Basically, I have no clue whatsoever!
   
2. So far, his advantage was that - even as Master of the Coin - he was too small to be noticed by anyone but Varys as a player in the game of thrones. That's certainly changed now.
   
3. He's in control of the Vale at the moment and he's working hard to establish the Vale as his stronghold. But to get there, he had to give up his network in Kings Landing. (I'm sure that Varys is working hard at dismantling it.)
   
4. He knows, that in the game of thrones not all the pieces behave as expected by the players - everyone is, to some degree, piece and player. (Most are more piece than player; Littlefinger is more player than piece.) That means he knows that he can plan somethings but not everything. Strategy is more important than planning.
   
5. He knows that those who stay out of the fighting will still be strong once the fighting is over. Thus he keeps the Vale out of the fighting.
   
6. He also knows that there are player-pieces outside his control (Daenerys, Young Griff, presumably the Ironborn) and there maybe player-pieces he isn't even aware of, in particular the Others.
   
7. Auranes fleet is small, inexperienced and might not be under his control. I doubt he's building long-term plans on it at the moment.
   

So I don't think that he's intends for Sansa to marry Harry the Heir and live happily ever after. At the moment, seems Sansa to be his best possibility to establish a line of his own. I guess, his attempts to win kisses from her maybe an attempt to get into her panties in the long run. (However, the entire ruse of first presenting her as illegitimate daughter and later revealing her as a lost Stark of Winterfell stinks. Someone powerful may be able to force people to believe it but he doesn't have that force yet. And whether the people are willing to believe without being forced to, is a very long shot.) So whhat options does he have?

• Marry Sansa to Harry the Heir, get rid of Harry and marry a widowed Sansa who inherits the Vale from Harry. Too twisted. If it happened that way I'm sure he wouldn't say no but I don't think he's aiming for it.
  
• Marry Sansa to Harry but play a Jaime on Harry with Sansa's help. Easier to achieve.
  
• Trade Sansa for the Lordship of the Vale with a dragon-riding Targaryen Queen? Sounds like a good plan but unfortunately he's not in control of Daenerys nor does he know whether Daenerys hates the Starks enough to make such a trade.
  
• Trade Sansa for the Lordship of the Vale with anyone else? I doubt the Lannisters would help him to establish control over the Vale (if he still needs help) once the dust has settled. The Tyrells, Young Griff or the Dornish might be up for it though.
  
• Use Sansa to gain the North? While it sounds reasonable, he'd have to have enough of a force to get past Moat Cailin. At the moment he has to expect the Boltons as rulers of the North to defend MC. I doubt that he intends to try that. A reasonable fleet might help but I don't see him having one. Also, he should be one of those who know that Arya is still somewhere around and he's not stupid enough to ignore Jon Snow. He probably doesn't doubt that Bran and Rickon are dead but if they resurface he'd be flexible enough to rearrange his plans.
  

Ultimately, we don't know his plans but I expect him to look for a wife, lands of his own and offspring soonish. (Lands that he actually controls, not that worthless Harrenhal claim.)

[TheTowerOfJoy]

To quote Varys:

So what does Littlefinger want? Power, Money, Recognition? I'm pretty sure that, in the end, Littlefinger wants to be recognized as equal amongst the high and mighty. I've got the impression that he's primarily driven by the rejection from Hoster Tully and Catelyn; his pride has been hurt badly. But he's clever, so what does he have:

1. He's not an Eunuch, doesn't have any children that we know of but lives in a world where lineage is important. I am pretty sure that he's planning to have children and to have lands that he can pass on to them. But who'll be the mother? My best guess is that he was initially hoping for a widowed Catelyn and the North but that's not feasible any more and him taking control of the North against Ned's sons was a long shot in the first place. Basically, I have no clue whatsoever!
   
   
2. So far, his advantage was that - even as Master of the Coin - he was too small to be noticed by anyone but Varys as a player in the game of thrones. That's certainly changed now.
   
   
3. He's in control of the Vale at the moment and he's working hard to establish the Vale as his stronghold. But to get there, he had to give up his network in Kings Landing. (I'm sure that Varys is working hard at dismantling it.)
   
   
4. He knows, that in the game of thrones not all the pieces behave as expected by the players - everyone is, to some degree, piece and player. (Most are more piece than player; Littlefinger is more player than piece.) That means he knows that he can plan somethings but not everything. Strategy is more important than planning.
   
   
5. He knows that those who stay out of the fighting will still be strong once the fighting is over. Thus he keeps the Vale out of the fighting.
   
   
6. He also knows that there are player-pieces outside his control (Daenerys, Young Griff, presumably the Ironborn) and there maybe player-pieces he isn't even aware of, in particular the Others.
   
   
7. Auranes fleet is small, inexperienced and might not be under his control. I doubt he's building long-term plans on it at the moment.
   

Ultimately, we don't know his plans but I expect him to look for a wife, lands of his own and offspring soonish. (Lands that he actually controls, not that worthless Harrenhal claim.)

Even if it's only 10 three decked drommonds, they have the firepower of 30 smaller ships, and are significantly harder to sink than smaller ships too. There aren't many ships in westeros that are equivalent to those ships, and Aurane has 10 of them.

With that said, I'm having a hard time believing his goal is to get lands and settle down with a woman and have children. I do think he wants lands, but I think his ultimate goal is to not just become the lords equal, but their superior.

[Rahgh Neqaj]

Even if it's only 10 three decked drommonds, they have the firepower of 30 smaller ships, and are significantly harder to sink than smaller ships too. There aren't many ships in westeros that are equivalent to those ships, and Aurane has 10 of them.

In naval warfare, size doesn't always matter that much and firepower isn't always comparable. The Spanish Armada had more and bigger ships than the English, yet the small English ships were more agile and thus could use light long range cannons to sink the Spanish without getting close enough to risk boarding or the heavier Spanish artillery. In addition, the Spanish didn't have the right water casks so their water supply rotted away. In Napoleonic time, the French ships were at least equal if not superior to the English but the English had a lot more naval experience and better trained gun crews. Note that I'm not comparing Aurane Waters' ships to Napoleonic time ships -- I'm just making the point that there's many factors to consider.

10 ships, no matter what size, aren't much. You can transport a few hundred soldiers on them or maybe blockade a single port GRRM already indicated that there's going to be nasty storms during winter and you need to have experienced crews or the protection of a harbour if you want your ship to survive a storm.

Blockading Kings Landing is not going to have that much of a long term impact because KL does have pretty decent land connections and trade will simply move to other ports and the goods will continue to KL via land. At the same time AW does have to keep his crews (rowers, fighters and officers) happy. Without trade ships to loot he can't pay them prize money. Blockading KL during a proper storm will be quite challenging as well. I reckon that his crews are mostly inexperienced and if he has his ships in the open he'll risk loosing them. If he takes his ships into a safe harbour experienced smugglers will get through to KL.

Attacking a port from the sea isn't quite that easy either. If the port is protected by proper battlements, they've got the high ground and enjoy protection of proper stone walls. I'm no expert on medieval naval warfare but I believe that a common tactic was to land soldiers somewhere close to the port, let the soldiers take the battlements and only then you bring your ships in to take the loot away. (Or you bring them in during the fight to create a diversion but nevertheless the main attack is lead by soldiers that you've landed earlier.) While the Drommonds are certainly nice to transport soldiers, I'm not sure whether they're very well suited to land them outside harbours. For that you usually prefer to have ships with a small draft. (Is that the correct word? "tiefgang" in German.)

Finally, if I remember my history lessons correctly, dromonds and other forms of Galleys have disadvantages when being borded because the rowers are not in the best position to fight back and if the enemy ship sails across the oars just before boarding, the rowers get beaten up by their own oars. And they apparently sucked in bad weather compared to sailing ships.

Bottom line: They can be useful for some things, for others they're either the wrong type of ship or not enough. And considering the current situation I believe they can only be useful to defend a port such as KL. Maybe next summer when the winds are easy again...

[nQthing]

I always thought the game of thrones was a battle between Varys and little finger. Like in cyvasse there are many pieces on the board but only two hands controlling them.

I think LFs true family line is blackfyre- likely a descendant of bittersteel. And Varys is a blackfyre- likely a descendant of bloodraven. Little finger being a pro blackfyre and Varys being a blackfyre but pro-targ.

Everyone else is a pawn in their game

[WhiteWalder]

He becomes Hand of the King, wielding the true power over the realm.

He could of had it already without going through so much trouble. Cersei wanted to bring back LF to be Hand before she got herself arrested - after Rosby coughed himself to death - or Qyburn experimented on him.

[bloody_mummer]

Littlefinger's long game is to become king, simple. He is a low born noble with a chip on his schoulder and a master scheemer. He needs to prove he is "better" than all the highborn lords and does this by acquiring money and power. I totally buy that he intends to use the Vale's army...only problem is that the Vale doesn't reallu support him....which is why he needs Sansa and Harry.