Moat Cailin sees more trade than the Twins, hence a potentially lucrative source of toll wealth?

[Free Northman]

No, The Pact was signed after the failed 2nd Hammer.

That remains unconfirmed.

[Nyrhex]

Say again?

* The Mountain clans are not near the Twins, they are further south, and into the Vale.

* The Freys who bring Wendel Manderly's bones to his father, do so by taking a ship, presumebly somewhere near the Twins there is a port on the Bite, and they make the trip by ship - So it is possible to make the way from the Twins North without having to face the Mountain Clans, or using Moat Cailin.

* At the time the Freys reach White Harbor, Moat Cailin is still held by ~60 Ironborn. Ramsay Bolton arrives from the north to open Moat Cailin, but it is not because it stops all trade, it is because it stops Roose's army from reaching north.

The Player: The old man thinks he's in love with his daughter.

Rosencrantz: Good God. We're out of our depths here.

The Player: No, no, no! He hasn't got a daughter! The old man thinks he's in love with his daughter.

Rosencrantz: The old man is?

The Player: Hamlet... in love... with the old man's daughter... the old man... thinks.

Rosencrantz: Ah.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

No, The Pact was signed after the failed 2nd Hammer.

The second use of the Hammer is never mentioned in Luwin's account of the FM invasion and the Pact. Moat Cailin is specifically referred to as "stronghold of the First Men", and yet the CotF called down the Hammer from the Children's Tower. That would seem to imply that the Second Hammer was used during the Andal Invasion.

[Free Northman]

* The Mountain clans are not near the Twins, they are further south, and into the Vale.

* The Freys who bring Wendel Manderly's bones to his father, do so by taking a ship, presumebly somewhere near the Twins there is a port on the Bite, and they make the trip by ship - So it is possible to make the way from the Twins North without having to face the Mountain Clans, or using Moat Cailin.

* At the time the Freys reach White Harbor, Moat Cailin is still held by ~60 Ironborn. Ramsay Bolton arrives from the north to open Moat Cailin, but it is not because it stops all trade, it is because it stops Roose's army from reaching north.

The Player: The old man thinks he's in love with his daughter.

Rosencrantz: Good God. We're out of our depths here.

The Player: No, no, no! He hasn't got a daughter! The old man thinks he's in love with his daughter.

Rosencrantz: The old man is?

The Player: Hamlet... in love... with the old man's daughter... the old man... thinks.

Rosencrantz: Ah.

Regarding the Mountain clans. The point is that the closest part of the Vale to the Twins is the Mountains of the Moon. These Mountains stand directly between the Twins and the Vale itself. The only land based route through those Mountains, is the High Road followed by Tyrion and Catelyn, which passes through the Gates of the Moon and exits into the Crossroads Inn.

Therefore, I'm not saying that the Twins are close to the Mountains. I'm saying that it is incorrect for you to suggest that some trade from the Vale passes through the Twins, because there are no routes from the Vale that require trade through the Twins. Instead, the only land based entry route to the Vale, exits hundreds of miles South of the Twins, at the Crossroads Inn. That's the whole basis of the Vale being so defensible from a land based assault.

In short, it is therefore not true that the Twins carry trade between the Riverlands and the Vale, as all such trade would go through the High Road far to the South.

Next, as far as the Freys are concerned, either they got picked up at some flyspeck fishing village on the south coast of the Bite, or as is more likely, they simply sailed downriver to Saltpans or Maidenpool where they were picked up by the Lannister ship on its way to White Harbor.

That has nothing to do with the land based trade that goes through the Neck, as we have always known that the bulk of Northern Trade goes through White Harbor by sea. What is not the case, is that trade somehow goes through the Twins and then gets transferred to ships somewhere on the coast of the Bite. If that was the case, there would be a port town there similar to Saltpans or Maidenpool, and this is not the case.

[Free Northman]

The second use of the Hammer is never mentioned in Luwin's account of the FM invasion and the Pact. Moat Cailin is specifically referred to as "stronghold of the First Men", and yet the CotF called down the Hammer from the Children's Tower. That would seem to imply that the Second Hammer was used during the Andal Invasion.

Indeed. What I find likely, is that the Neck was initially not as inhospitable as it is today, and as a result the First Men required a far more substantial fortress to repell Andal invaders coming from the South. As the Children witnessed the Andals burning down weirwoods in the South, they offered their assistance to the First Men, and tried to bring down a second Hammer of the Waters to sunder the Neck. This was only partially successful - probably because by then half the Children's power had been drained by the loss of all the weirwoods in the South.

But the net effect was the creation of the swamplike conditions of the Neck, which effetively sealed the entrance to the North, and thereafter a far lesser fortification was required to secure the Neck.

I would be most interested to know whether this second Hammer was neccessitated by perhaps a massive Andal army moving through the Neck, and whether the Hammer anihilated tens of thousands of Andal soldiers when it struck, thus bleeding Andal resolve for a renewed Northern invasion for centuries to come.

As an side, if the revised timelines are indeed correct, this might in fact have happened closer to 4000 or even 2000 years ago, than 6000 years ago as originally thought. And this display of awesome power might have been part of what convinced the Valyrians to steer clear of Westeros for the next 2000 years or so.

[Nyrhex]

That has nothing to do with the land based trade that goes through the Neck, as we have always known that the bulk of Northern Trade goes through White Harbor by sea. What is not the case, is that trade somehow goes through the Twins and then gets transferred to ships somewhere on the coast of the Bite. If that was the case, there would be a port town there similar to Saltpans or Maidenpool, and this is not the case.

The northern part of the Vale likely has smaller towns. We only know of a smale percentage of the locations in Westeros, and the trade with the Vale does not have to be with a port town to it's south. It can also be to a lesser degree with smaller towns in the northern Vale.

[The Frosted King]

Moat Cailin being in the condition it is, one of the bigger wtf in the narrative, for me.

It was once on par with Winterfell, with twenty huge towers, where there are now three.

I understand that since the children flooded the Neck, it can't maintain a fortress so large, but the abject disrepair it's in doesn't make sense either.

Think a Lannister lord would be cool with the Golden Tooth being dilapidated?

How about one of the seats guarding the Prince's Pass down in Dorne?

For all the chanting the narrative does of the Starks and subsequently the north desiring to be left alone, they've curiously left themselves many avenues to be "bothered" by.

No sea power on their entire Western coast, the side that happens to have a raucous pirate culture several miles away? Not even a port to bait any such ambitions?

A door into their realm that is falling off the hinges, and can't be locked?

It should've merely taken a Stark lord similar in temperament to Jon Snow to see all the necessary imperative fixes, but apparently they've just been sitting in the cold capital frowning for several hundred years......?

[noSer]

For some reason I doubt Balon would have cared,Most of his plans made no sense anyway.

His plan actually was quite brilliant. The only way to take MC and not be slaughtered from the North was to take it when the North is south of MC. He recognized a very rare and unique moment in time and struck. Many would blame it's failure on Theon bc the destruction of WF united a north that could have fractured beyond repair after Ned's death and the RW but Asha flat out says the cause was lost the moment the lost MC. She even acknowledges the Euron was completely aware of this fact as well but simply didn't care. Had Balon lived there is no way that all these Northern Lords at WF would have returned North already. They likely would eventually take MC even from the south but it would take a serious organized strategy from a group of Nobles who only have ever worked together under the command of a Stark. Much of the current Bolton strength derives from his treachery leaving him as the only Northern Lord who had the military strength to oust the remaining Ironborn so swiftly. By doing so he instantly becomes the most powerful man in the North, and the gratitude received for killing them has made his role in the RW ignored by the people he betrayed. Sure some haven't forgotten and have been working to repay him, but other Lords are in a situation where their best chance to survive this war in tact is to eat a turd sandwich and remain loyal to Bolton. For the Locke's of the world it's a lesser of the evils situation. Few have the power White Harbor has allowing them to oppose the Dreadfort. Better a Bolton than a Lannister or Barratheon even though they don't want Bolton at all.

[The Frosted King]

His plan actually was quite brilliant. The only way to take MC and not be slaughtered from the North was to take it when the North is south of MC. He recognized a very rare and unique moment in time and struck. Many would blame it's failure on Theon bc the destruction of WF united a north that could have fractured beyond repair after Ned's death and the RW but Asha flat out says the cause was lost the moment the lost MC. She even acknowledges the Euron was completely aware of this fact as well but simply didn't care. Had Balon lived there is no way that all these Northern Lords at WF would have returned North already. They likely would eventually take MC even from the south but it would take a serious organized strategy from a group of Nobles who only have ever worked together under the command of a Stark. Much of the current Bolton strength derives from his treachery leaving him as the only Northern Lord who had the military strength to oust the remaining Ironborn so swiftly. By doing so he instantly becomes the most powerful man in the North, and the gratitude received for killing them has made his role in the RW ignored by the people he betrayed. Sure some haven't forgotten and have been working to repay him, but other Lords are in a situation where their best chance to survive this war in tact is to eat a turd sandwich and remain loyal to Bolton. For the Locke's of the world it's a lesser of the evils situation. Few have the power White Harbor has allowing them to oppose the Dreadfort. Better a Bolton than a Lannister or Barratheon even though they don't want Bolton at all.

His plan was bad because at that early point in the war, it wasn't clear where the Vale would go.

He locked the wolf out of his den, but didn't take into account that the wolf's aunt had a ladder that reached across the gap and could be placed giving access to the den from another entrance.

His plan was bad because no matter who won in the south, someone was coming north to put swords in his belly.

Be they direwolf, stag or lion, he'd never be allowed to keep the north.

And the effort expended has few worthwhile rewards for the time spent temporarily holding the north.

It was a bad plan all around imo.

[enoofu]

Moat Cailin being in the condition it is, one of the bigger wtf in the narrative, for me.

It was once on par with Winterfell, with twenty huge towers, where there are now three.

I understand that since the children flooded the Neck, it can't maintain a fortress so large, but the abject disrepair it's in doesn't make sense either.

Think a Lannister lord would be cool with the Golden Tooth being dilapidated?

How about one of the seats guarding the Prince's Pass down in Dorne?

For all the chanting the narrative does of the Starks and subsequently the north desiring to be left alone, they've curiously left themselves many avenues to be "bothered" by.

No sea power on their entire Western coast, the side that happens to have a raucous pirate culture several miles away? Not even a port to bait any such ambitions?

A door into their realm that is falling off the hinges, and can't be locked?

It should've merely taken a Stark lord similar in temperament to Jon Snow to see all the necessary imperative fixes, but apparently they've just been sitting in the cold capital frowning for several hundred years......?

The North is bigger then any other kingdom and it should be that fact have more ruin fortresses.

Moat Cailin is a elephant, was to huge to maintain like Harrenhal

Has very little dry land for crops to be taxed

Is probably sinking into the swamp

Its stragetic valuable is MEH, since troops at either side can also block army just like the movie 300 in the Hot Gates

[The Frosted King]

The North is bigger then any other kingdom and it should be that fact have more ruin fortresses.

Moat Cailin is a elephant, was to huge to maintain like Harrenhal

Has very little dry land for crops to be taxed

Is probably sinking into the swamp

Its stragetic valuable is MEH, since troops at either side can also block army just like the movie 300 in the Hot Gates

It doesn't change the fact that with Moat Cailin in the shape that it is, it's a door that is off the hinges and can be compromised.

It'd be one thing if the Children flooded the Neck, rendering it too hard to build on, but the Starks went further north/south and built another castle to shore up the giant defensive hole that the currently compromised Moat Cailin presents, but they didn't do that.

They kept the door pretty shaky, and neglected to reinforce the glaring weakness.

The Stark words imply being watchful and prepared, but everything that led them to GOT preWOTFK tells us they were anything but.

Narrative isn't matching content, is all i'm saying.

[profilebegone]

The key is understanding the differing histories and purposes of the Twins vs. Moat Cailin. The former is relatively new and fundamentally economic, whereas the latter is ancient and primarily political/military (two sides of the same coin, really).

The Twins were simply a long-term capital investment. One day 600 years ago (not that old in Westerosi terms) some Frey (Bob Frey? Fred Frey? Warren Frey?) decided "gee, a bridge in this particular spot would probably prove very useful to people - so much so they'd probably pay out the nose to use it!" So they built it, started charging for it, and raked it in. Certainly once warfare erupts there is utility in the crossing, but that's not why it's there. There are also alternatives to the Twins - just far less convenient ones.

Moat Cailin, on the other hand, is ten millenia old, and basically controls the only land route between the North and the south of Westeros. It's fundamental purpose wasn't rent-seeking but defense - to repel southron invaders. If Moat Cailin is shut to you, your only options are to try to win over the crannogmen (fat chance) or to try and take the North by sea landing, a much trickier proposition.

Therefore, a manned Moat Cailin, operating as a toll collection site, is still an implicit threat to the unity of the Seven Kingdoms and the political order under the Iron Throne in a way the Twins are not.

[Free Northman]

The key is understanding the differing histories and purposes of the Twins vs. Moat Cailin. The former is relatively new and fundamentally economic, whereas the latter is ancient and primarily political/military (two sides of the same coin, really).

The Twins were simply a long-term capital investment. One day 600 years ago (not that old in Westerosi terms) some Frey (Bob Frey? Fred Frey? Warren Frey?) decided "gee, a bridge in this particular spot would probably prove very useful to people - so much so they'd probably pay out the nose to use it!" So they built it, started charging for it, and raked it in. Certainly once warfare erupts there is utility in the crossing, but that's not why it's there. There are also alternatives to the Twins - just far less convenient ones.

Moat Cailin, on the other hand, is ten millenia old, and basically controls the only land route between the North and the south of Westeros. It's fundamental purpose wasn't rent-seeking but defense - to repel southron invaders. If Moat Cailin is shut to you, your only options are to try to win over the crannogmen (fat chance) or to try and take the North by sea landing, a much trickier proposition.

Therefore, a manned Moat Cailin, operating as a toll collection site, is still an implicit threat to the unity of the Seven Kingdoms and the political order under the Iron Throne in a way the Twins are not.

If your argument essentially comes down to "Aerys wouldn't allow the Starks to toll it", then I agree with your logic.

Another reason why the North needs its independence.

[profilebegone]

If your argument essentially comes down to "Aerys wouldn't allow the Starks to toll it", then I agree with your logic.

Another reason why the North needs its independence.

See, I agree with the first part - any ruler trying to effectively govern a united Westeros would prohibit Moat Cailin from being fortified and operational - but not the second.

Tolling Moat Cailin would be beneficial to the collector, which in this case would probably be some new house or cadet branch so deputized by the Starks, but not to the general public, since it is basically a form of rent-seeking, and one that would depress the overall volume of trade.

This is why infrastructure like the Twins is, in modern democratic societies, often a public project - the costs of that kind of capital investment are such that, once completed, a private investor would need to charge for its use in such a way that it is utilized at socially below-optimum levels, so instead the public pays for it and it is then tolled less or not at all, which leads to more use. In the case of a modern commuter bridge, there is still the issues of justice (ie, you pay for what you use) and capacity (a bridge that is overutilized best manages traffic using a price mechanism) but in general almost no public road or bridge or tunnel in the United States charges a toll sufficient to justify its construction from a profiteering perspective, which is a very good thing.

The same applies in Westeros. The vast majority of Northerners would benefit much more from ease of access to southron markets than from higher tolls at Moat Cailin.

[Free Northman]

See, I agree with the first part - any ruler trying to effectively govern a united Westeros would prohibit Moat Cailin from being fortified and operational - but not the second.

Tolling Moat Cailin would be beneficial to the collector, which in this case would probably be some new house or cadet branch so deputized by the Starks, but not to the general public, since it is basically a form of rent-seeking, and one that would depress the overall volume of trade.

This is why infrastructure like the Twins is, in modern democratic societies, often a public project - the costs of that kind of capital investment are such that, once completed, a private investor would need to charge for its use in such a way that it is utilized at socially below-optimum levels, so instead the public pays for it and it is then tolled less or not at all, which leads to more use. In the case of a modern commuter bridge, there is still the issues of justice (ie, you pay for what you use) and capacity (a bridge that is overutilized best manages traffic using a price mechanism) but in general almost no public road or bridge or tunnel in the United States charges a toll sufficient to justify its construction from a profiteering perspective, which is a very good thing.

The same applies in Westeros. The vast majority of Northerners would benefit much more from ease of access to southron markets than from higher tolls at Moat Cailin.

The toll would in effect be an indirect tax on all goods coming into Westeros, specifically used to finance the constrution of a stronger and permanently manned fortress at Moat Cailin. In other words, a tax used to finance the "Department of Defense".

EDIT

This is no different to the taxes charged on goods coming in and out of White Harbor, used to build Manderly's 50 warships and strengthen the fortifications of White Harbor. Those taxes are obviously ultimately transferred to the consumers in the North by way of higher prices for consumer goods, but it is a necessary evil to strengthen the North's military capability.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Looking at Moat Cailin isn't most of the land near it flat grassland? Whats to stop traders simply getting of the Kingsroad and travel around Moat Cailin?

Also how does this benefit the people of the North in winter. They need food and other resources yet the price will go up because of this new government tax.

[Free Northman]

Looking at Moat Cailin isn't most of the land near it flat grassland? Whats to stop traders simply getting of the Kingsroad and travel around Moat Cailin?

Also how does this benefit the people of the North in winter. They need food and other resources yet the price will go up because of this new government tax.

The same question can be asked about the fortifications at White Harbor, the fleet of 50 warships, or the leveis raised by Rob Stark for the War of the Five Kings. War has a cost, and having a strong military requires money.

[profilebegone]

The toll would in effect be an indirect tax on all goods coming into Westeros, specifically used to finance the constrution of a stronger and permanently manned fortress at Moat Cailin. In other words, a tax used to finance the "Department of Defense".

EDIT

This is no different to the taxes charged on goods coming in and out of White Harbor, used to build Manderly's 50 warships and strengthen the fortifications of White Harbor. Those taxes are obviously ultimately transferred to the consumers in the North by way of higher prices for consumer goods, but it is a necessary evil to strengthen the North's military capability.

To the extent tolls and tariffs are a good idea, it's solely because the low levels of technology, literacy, and institutionalized good governance in Westeros make collecting more efficient taxes, like Pigovian taxes, trade-neutral sales taxes, or income taxes, logistically or pratically infeasible.

The case for a general sales tax vs. tariffs is that it is trade neutral, which means that, without disincentives to trade, overall wealth and utility increases. But like I said, unlike the most ill-governed American states, which collect plenty of sales tax without difficulty, Westeros may not have better options than tolls and tariffs beyond the the levies on production or income leveled by lords on their lands, which may not be sufficient to provide sufficiently for adequate public goods.

Look - if the North declared independence and wanted to maintain it succesfully, it would have to fortify Moat Cailin. And if it did, there are worse things they could do then toll it. My broader point is that it's likely not actually in the North's interest to be independent of the Seven Kingdoms - assuming the Seven Kingdoms isn't goverened by the kind of guy who likes broiling Northern lords.

[juanml82]

To achieve the level of status the Twins enjoys requires a horde of smallfolk, many of which spend their entire lives there. For many generations the castle is their entire universe. This requires the ability to house and feed these people, and Moat Cailin is a defensive position that cannot provide for the people needed to become a mighty seat. If it could provide this a castle would have existed for generations.

Sure it could easily be converted to a toll, but the Twins is a shortcut, where Most Cailin is the only land passage the a Kingdom that dwarfs the other 6 combined. If a High Lord took a position there their actions could easily be interpreted as a declaration of war. Any King would have no choice but to respond in some way. I'm sure pre-conquest some Lord, possibly a Stark, occupied those towers year round. Explains in part the isolationist attitude of Northerners. When the dragons flew and 7 became 1 MC lost its significance, and was left to rot. There's a reason its designed to protect solely against the South.

This issue arose from an idea I had while discussing the relative wealth of the lesser Houses in Westeros.

According to the books the Twins generate significant wealth for the Freys - in fact making them one of the richest Houses in the Riverlands. And yet, if you look at the position of the Twins, the only traffic that passes through it is traffic between the North and the Riverlands. It does not capture any traffic passing between the Riverlands and the Vale, Crownlands or the Reach. Nor does it capture any traffic that passes between the North and the Vale, Crownlands or the rest of the South.

So, the logical conclusion is that any traffic that has passed through the Twins ALSO has to pass through Moat Cailin. But in addition to that, Moat Cailin will also include any land based traffic that passes between the North and the Vale, the Crownlands and beyond.

So at a minimum, Moat Cailin will capture just as much trade as the Twins do, but on top of that it most certainly captures all non seaborne trade between the North, and the Vale and the Crownlands.

So, what this boils down to is that Moat Cailin at a minimum has the capacity to not only equal the toll wealth generated by the Twins, but to exceed it by a factor of at least 2 or 3. And yet the North, as far as we can see, does not even have a toll collector based there.

What's going on here?

Rickard and Ned Stark were idiots

Looking at Moat Cailin isn't most of the land near it flat grassland? Whats to stop traders simply getting of the Kingsroad and travel around Moat Cailin?

Also how does this benefit the people of the North in winter. They need food and other resources yet the price will go up because of this new government tax.

The lands around Moat Cailin are swamps.

While taxes might not end up benefiting the North, even an inn would provide income and an excuse to permanently deploy a handful of men there. In time, the income generated by the Inn can be used to restore one more tower making the Moat able to deter attacks from the North as well.

According the legend, the Moat was capable of fending off attacks from the North as well, but the Starks let it fall in disrepair, maybe because they didn't want anyone occupying the Moat from shutting it from the North. As for the Twins, isn't Seagard North of the Green Fork? If I'm not mistaken, then traffic going and coming from Seagard passes through the Twins, but might not pass through Moat Cailin if it isn't heading north.

[profilebegone]

Looking at Moat Cailin isn't most of the land near it flat grassland? Whats to stop traders simply getting of the Kingsroad and travel around Moat Cailin?

Also how does this benefit the people of the North in winter. They need food and other resources yet the price will go up because of this new government tax.

Nope, the Neck is a brutal swamp, and very narrow where the kingsroad passes by the Fever River. You basically can't get North of the Neck by land without passing through the causeway guarded by Moat Cailin.