Varys/LF purposely bankrupted the realm?

[Danielsnag]

Hey guys, not sure if this has been brought up, but I was just thinking about it before I head to bed and thought I'd post it. I'm starting a re-read soon, and will look for some in-text evidence throughout.

It is mentioned many times throughout the series that the kingdoms finances are in a dire state. This cultimating in AFFC when Cersei refuses to pay back the debt owed to the Iron Bank. By doing this she, without realising it, provided Stannis with the financial backing that he has lacked, as well as cutting off any further loans for herself.

The Faith Millitant has only resurged due to the Kingdoms financial troubles also.

We know that both Varys and more-so, Littlefinger, had both the means and motive to purposely bankrupt the realm. It's mentioned constantly throughout that Littlefinger can make coins appear seemingly out of thin air. This has been achieved most obviously through the constant taking out of loans upon loans that he knew would never be repaid.

Varys would have to have been more subtle in his technique. Achieving it via convincing Robert to spend and spend and accumulate debt on extravagances such as the Hands Tourney.

A broke Kingdom without access to funding is extremely attractive to Varys/LF, both of which want the ruling powers to fall into such a level of chaos and disarray that their plans can for power can be enacted with the most minimal resistance. If Stannis falls, it would make sense (I think?) for the Iron Bank to support Aegon, not that he seems to really need it at this point.

Anyway, I realise this is very disjointed with no actual evidence, but as I said, the thought just crossed my mind and i wanted to get it down before I pass out. Thanks

[N/A]

it's not all that far really, LF was a hustler, he had to have a smoke screen so he took loans, much like a credit card he's not paying them so why should he care

as for varys, i really don't think robert needed much convincing to throw the realms money away :P

but as it stands, i suppose this could have been the case

sweet dreams

[King Tam Stark]

both of them thrive on chaos so this would be another way to create chaos but i'd say this was mostly down to LF, it was his job to run/ruin the realms finances after all

[Groat]

I have long believed LF embezzled the entire treasury of KL. He is clever enough, he had access, he had motive, and some of the comments made by Tyrion really struck me as classic embezzling moves. I think it was the fact that some of LF investments smelled fishy. How is a guy who can make dragons appear out of thin air going to make bad investments? Also he had all the right personnel in place for what is, essentially, the largest heist in the history of Westeros.

[WildBlood]

You could try to blame Varys for convincing Robert to spend, but as was mentioned above I really don't think he needed much convincing. And as for LF, as Master of Coin his duty is to come up with the funds when needed. If it helps his end game in the process, so be it. That is why he never complains about finding the cash like Tyrion did as MOC. So while I don't think either Varys or LF are directly responsible, they were definitely not going to object to the spending either. And at the time, while Robert was King and even for a little bit after he died, the loans were being paid, but it was just a matter of time for Cersei to put an end to it I think with the battles and other things going on in her own better interests.

[Light a wight tonight]

It's an interesting point, though I don't think it works out quite this way. LF isn't all that interested in bringing down the realm, just getting even with the slights he suffers from the Great Houses, particularly the Tullys and Starks. He's the one handling finances, not Varys.

I've never thought that the dire state of Westeros's finances was due to Robert's profligate spending. There's just so much one king can waste money on, after all. To me Littlefinger is looting the treasury, to use the funds for his own purposes, disregarding all else.

Actually I think the situation is to a large part caused by Martin not having a fully realized sense of finance. There are other instances where details aren't well thought out, as in the height of the Wall, the general ecology, and three people making breakfast out of one squirrel (totally disregarding how hard is to catch one of those).

[Groat]

It's an interesting point, though I don't think it works out quite this way. LF isn't all that interested in bringing down the realm, just getting even with the slights he suffers from the Great Houses, particularly the Tullys and Starks. He's the one handling finances, not Varys.

I disagree completely. LF would watch the entire realm burn if only to be king of the ashes. If all he wanted was vengence, he could have had it long ago. To me, LF just wants to watch the world burn, and stealing all the gold from KL is just another firework he's set up to enjoy when it finally goes off with a bang.

[The Duke]

I think it was mostly Robert's fault. He was the one hosting tourney after tourney with 100,000 Golden Dragons for the winners, let alone the cost of running it.

[Brother Walfrid]

whilst there is no doubt in my mind that LF was embezzling large sums, I could never work out where any money was coming from in the first place. Seems to me that Master of Coin is more similar to the investment arm of a modern government, rather than a traditional Chancellor of the Exchequer or Treasury Secretary.

We are told that Lords pay taxes, but where do the Lords themselves get the money? They don't seem to collect any taxes from the smallfolk.

If there is a population of 40,000,000 as is commonly accepted, then 100,000 dragons for the hand's tourney is nothing if people are paying some form of taxation

[Pero the first of His name]

I think LF is capable and probably more better than almost anyone else would be at being Master of Coin or a regular tax collector but not by as much as it seems. In fact, wanting to present himself as very good and important he actually did bad.

We know that he borrowed heavily from the IB.

My theory is that his financial devilry runs even deeper.

I think that, even in his early days as tax collector in the Vale and KL, he borrowed money with which he bolstered his revenue to appear better.

His "climb" was very much planned.

[Borsabil]

You could try to blame Varys for convincing Robert to spend, but as was mentioned above I really don't think he needed much convincing. And as for LF, as Master of Coin his duty is to come up with the funds when needed. If it helps his end game in the process, so be it. That is why he never complains about finding the cash like Tyrion did as MOC. So while I don't think either Varys or LF are directly responsible, they were definitely not going to object to the spending either. And at the time, while Robert was King and even for a little bit after he died, the loans were being paid, but it was just a matter of time for Cersei to put an end to it I think with the battles and other things going on in her own better interests.

I think it was mostly Robert's fault. He was the one hosting tourney after tourney with 100,000 Golden Dragons for the winners, let alone the cost of running it.

I guess that's a substantial expense, but really? Hosting the odd jousting tournament would bankrupt a continental sized empire?? Robert seemed to have fairly simple tastes. He liked whoring (not expensive.....well not expensive for a king), he liked eating and drinking.....ditto, and he liked going out into the forests to kill wild pigs. Robert did not, as far as we know, engage in massively expensive vanity projects like building palaces. He also, apart from his campaign against the Ironborn, did not launch wars against his neighbors, which in medieval times was the main reason for Kingdoms to go bankrupt.

So why did he need to borrow millions of crowns from the Iron bank, the Lannisters and the Faith? The idea that LF and/or Varys were stealing the money I think we can probably dismiss, Jon Arryn was Hand for all of this time, and if Robert didn't notice that kind of money going missing Jon certainly would. I wonder if it goes back to his rebellion against the Targs? Finding the money to keep tens of thousands of men in the field for years on end would not have been cheap, perhaps he went cap in hand to Braavos? There are many instances, including the NY banks funding the rise of Hitler (for example) of banking interests funding wars and rebellions, usually with penal interest rates. Or it could simply be a plot device to add to the general air of chaos necessary in Westros to explain the chaos and societal breakdown.

[The Duke]

There is about a 7,000,000 GD debt after 15 years of Robert as King, and that 100,000 was just for the winners, and Robert also had lavish feasts often. If the total cost of the tourneys was 250,000 GD and he did it every year, that is half of the debt right there. He also fought the Greyjoy rebellion which likely cost money, wouldn't surprise me if he spent a lot building his fleet, etc...

Littlefinger also increased revenues to the crown dramatically, he could have fairly easily hidden the revenue increases, but didn't. It would also mean his head if he was caught, and by all accounts, Jon Arryn was no fool.

[Brother Walfrid]

Didn't Jaime discover there were about 20 fulltime staff running a dungeon with 4 people in it?

if that sort of profligacy was replicated in every aspect of the kings areas of responsibility, no wonder the debts ran up

[Borsabil]

whilst there is no doubt in my mind that LF was embezzling large sums, I could never work out where any money was coming from in the first place. Seems to me that Master of Coin is more similar to the investment arm of a modern government, rather than a traditional Chancellor of the Exchequer or Treasury Secretary.

We are told that Lords pay taxes, but where do the Lords themselves get the money? They don't seem to collect any taxes from the smallfolk.

If there is a population of 40,000,000 as is commonly accepted, then 100,000 dragons for the hand's tourney is nothing if people are paying some form of taxation

Westeros is a feudal society. The vast majority of the population live on the land, in farms and small hamlets, think 95%+ of the population. All of these people are serfs, effectively property of their Lord. They're not slaves as such, they have feudal rights unlike a slave, but they are obligated to hand over a certain portion of their produce at harvest time to their Lord. This is an equivalent to a tax, but would not be viewed as such, merely the rightful due to the Lord for allowing his 'small folk' to live and work on HIS land under his protection.

The lesser Lords will kick a share up to their liege Great Lord, who will in turn pass a share onto the Crown. Also remember the Crown has it's own lands, on top of which Robert was a Great Lord himself over the Stormlands.

On top of all that in the towns and larger settlements trade would be controlled through a guild system. Levies, custom dues, and associated kickbacks aplenty. Westeros has an extraordinarily satIc social structure as written by GRRM, with almost no movement or advancement possible between the social classes. For the vast majority they will work, live and die in the same small village or farmstead as their ancestors have done for countless generations. Even the few wealthy traders will likely never be able to advance into land ownership/aristocracy without either extraordinary luck or occasionally being able to buy a marriage into a minor noble house through one of their daughters. And it's been that way for thousands of years to boot!

[The Duke]

Doesn't Kevan mentioning raising taxes in the ADwD epilogue? Sounds like there is direct taxation by the crown as well.

[Borsabil]

There is about a 7,000,000 GD debt after 15 years of Robert as King, and that 100,000 was just for the winners, and Robert also had lavish feasts often. If the total cost of the tourneys was 250,000 GD and he did it every year, that is half of the debt right there. He also fought the Greyjoy rebellion which likely cost money, wouldn't surprise me if he spent a lot building his fleet, etc...

Littlefinger also increased revenues to the crown dramatically, he could have fairly easily hidden the revenue increases, but didn't. It would also mean his head if he was caught, and by all accounts, Jon Arryn was no fool.

It's a big if though. If Robert was holding tournaments annually and if he was always handing out that kind of prize money. I kind of doubt he was though. Besides we're talking about a fiscal deficit, only a small part of the crowns expenditure would need to be borrowed, plenty of tax money was coming in, it was a long bountiful summer, the kingdoms were at peace, even the Ironborn had bent the knee. On top of which LF was screwing the general populace for more revenue, even if he was skimming some, as you say Arryn would have noticed millions of crowns going missing. I'm probably leaning this to be more of a plot device from Martin that anything else, why would he leave us in the dark about where all the money went?

[WildBlood]

It's a big if though. If Robert was holding tournaments annually and if he was always handing out that kind of prize money. I kind of doubt he was though. Besides we're talking about a fiscal deficit, only a small part of the crowns expenditure would need to be borrowed, plenty of tax money was coming in, it was a long bountiful summer, the kingdoms were at peace, even the Ironborn had bent the knee. On top of which LF was screwing the general populace for more revenue, even if he was skimming some, as you say Arryn would have noticed millions of crowns going missing. I'm probably leaning this to be more of a plot device from Martin that anything else, why would he leave us in the dark about where all the money went?

His wiki page begs to differ.

From the wiki

Robert subsequently beggared the realm with the expense of his tournaments and feasts, despite the fact Aerys had left treasure vaults overflowing with gold. Robert's spending eventually left the crown in debt of over six million golden dragons (borrowing heavily from the Lannisters, the Tyrells, the Faith and the Iron Bank of Braavos).

And the iphone app agrees with the wiki as well.

[A Man Has Said]

There is about a 7,000,000 GD debt after 15 years of Robert as King, and that 100,000 was just for the winners, and Robert also had lavish feasts often. If the total cost of the tourneys was 250,000 GD and he did it every year, that is half of the debt right there. He also fought the Greyjoy rebellion which likely cost money, wouldn't surprise me if he spent a lot building his fleet, etc...

Littlefinger also increased revenues to the crown dramatically, he could have fairly easily hidden the revenue increases, but didn't. It would also mean his head if he was caught, and by all accounts, Jon Arryn was no fool.

No, Arryn was by no accounts a fool, but as Hand he would have had many responsibilities other than finance, and he trusted Littlefinger because he had known him from before he was Hand and knew him to be good with money.

BUT! Lest we forget, the reader was at first conned into believing that Arryn was killed by the Lannisters for poking into the matter of Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen's parentage. Which by the way seems to have become an obsession for him, and possibly distracted him from matters such as LF's true performance as Master of Coin and the corruption of the Gold Cloaks under Janos Slynt. But it wasn't the Lannisters who were behind Arryn's assassination - it was Littlefinger. Maybe LF was concerned that Arryn was getting too close to another truth - the truth that he was robbing Robert blind.

In the short time that he was Master of Coin Tyrion was sore perplexed at the state of LF's books. He was most concerned that many of the city's merchants were on the books as having outstanding loans from the Crown - loans that had been made with money borrowed from The Faith, the Iron Bank, and the Lannisters. Many if not most of those loans had had to have been written off because Joffrey had catapulted those merchants (called the Antler Men because they supposedly supported Stannis) into the harbour.

I think it likely that those loans to the Antler Men were in fact never made, but entered into the books by LF as the debtors were launched into the sea. Littlefinger saw an opportunity and seized it, figuring he would end up wealthy no matter who won the Battle of Blackwater.

Oh yeah, Littlefinger embezzled from the Crown bigtime. I don't see much in the text to indicate that Varys was involved though.

[Not a kneeler]

Undoubtably Robert was a profligate spender and no one, not Jon Arryn, Varys or LF could control him. Varys had no desire to do so since he was axious to see the Baratheon realm end, and there is nothing so much as bankruptcy short of physical violence to up-end a kingdom. Still, when Robert took over the realm Aerys' treasury was full. All the separate regions of Westeros were profitable due to the long summer. Income was coming in and it seems almost impossible that Robert could spend all that money.

Then we come to the chapter when Ned is told by LF about the kingdom's financial woes. Even on a first read when ii was speeding through the books and missed almost everthing I thought to myself, "Ah-ha! Someone has his fingers in the cookie jar. There is no doubt in my mind that LF has higher ambitions and to advance those he must have money - lots of it. He is clever shrewd and has no scruples. Could he put it past Jon Arryn? Without a doubt. Jon is the one who brought him to Kings Landing and really honest people have real trouble seeing the duplicity in people they know. Could he put it past Varys? I doubt it, but then Varys has many reasons of his own to see the kingdon in deep financial crises.

[aceluby]

Makes you think about the Golden Rule... doesn't it?

Those who have the gold make the rules.

Who is the crown in debt to? Lannisters, Tyrell's, Faith, and Iron Bank.

Who runs the crown right now? Lannister's & Tyrell's

Who is setting themselves up to challenge the crown's power? The Faith and Iron Bank