[tWoW spoilers] the struggle for Winterfell

[HodorForKing]

When was the last time LF told the truth? :P Now that winter is really coming, the road going north would be impassable and it isn't the best time to send an army of summer to reclaim it. So his words to Sansa are just winds. I think he only said that to get Sansa's trust but in truth, he wants to keep her. If he reclaims Winterfell for Sansa, I don't think he will send her there and let her be. He's already with her and it's only a matter of time before he can own her.

OP, also include Tyrion in the list (if he counts at all).

When was the last time LF told the truth? :P Now that winter is really coming, the road going north would be impassable and it isn't the best time to send an army of summer to reclaim it. So his words to Sansa are just winds. I think he only said that to get Sansa's trust but in truth, he wants to keep her. If he reclaims Winterfell for Sansa, I don't think he will send her there and let her be. He's already with her and it's only a matter of time before he can own her.

OP, also include Tyrion in the list (if he counts at all).

I didnt understood, why Tyrion?

[HodorForKing]

If anyone can help me out, I am having some problems to edit this topic... every time I change it and click in save changes, the topic simply doens't change at all...

If any of you have any idea about how to solve this problem please post it, I would be thankful (PROBLEM SOLVED)

[ebevan91]

When was the last time LF told the truth? :P

"I did warn you not to trust me."

[Queen Elsa]

I didnt understood, why Tyrion?

He is still married to dear Sansa.

[HodorForKing]

Mance seems to have accepted Stannis defeated him, he's certainly worked with Melisandre, he could still have a ruby/red stone controlling or influencing him and be acting for Stannis & Mel. It's plausible and I'm not sure he got to leave Mel without a price being exacted.

The trek of the Wildings south of the Wall wouldn't make sense if Mance blew the Horn, he would be exposing them to the WW/Wights and the woken giants. Unless Mance has something else up his sleeve to protect the free folk, he'd be equally risking them by blowing the horn.

The horn could be a bargaining chip, we're being led by Mr Martin to think that the right horns are in the wrong places given the effects of themso far. Could a horn in the crypt at Winterfell be a dragon horn? After the King that Knelt, maybe some Lord Stark got hold of the horn to control the dragons so that Future Starks could rise in mutiny at the Targaryens without having to worry about dragons interfering.

From what I've read from the Horn of Winter and Joramun; the "giants awakened from earth" would acctually be by the side of the Horn Blower, and should do as he commands. Anyways, If Mance is really under the influence of Melisandre it would be more plausible if he get the Horn to Stannis, for him to decide if he will use it, destroy it (atleast try to) or simply keep it... but the mere idea of the Horn being in the crypts is really unprobable

[Joe Pine]

From what I've read from the Horn of Winter and Joramun; the "giants awakened from earth" would acctually be by the side of the Horn Blower, and should do as he commands. Anyways, If Mance is really under the influence of Melisandre it would be more plausible if he get the Horn to Stannis, for him to decide if he will use it, destroy it (atleast try to) or simply keep it... but the mere idea of the Horn being in the crypts is really unprobable

I think we'll see what way that goes, I'm wondering if 'giants from the earth' is literal actual giants or a figure of speech for something else that's buried, but I guess we need the horn first.

[HodorForKing]

I think we'll see what way that goes, I'm wondering if 'giants from the earth' is literal actual giants or a figure of speech for something else that's buried, but I guess we need the horn first.

I think we'll see what way that goes, I'm wondering if 'giants from the earth' is literal actual giants or a figure of speech for something else that's buried, but I guess we need the horn first.

I totally agree

[HodorForKing]

He is still married to dear Sansa.

I don't think he has any pretensions in taking the North at the present time, but as GRRM proved many times, everything can change.

Now you made me raise a question: How LF is supposed to marry Sansa to Harry if she's still married to Tyrion? I don't think that LF gives a shit about religion, but there might be some people in the Vale that does, right?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I don't think he has any pretensions in taking the North at the present time, but as GRRM proved many times, everything can change.

Now you made me raise a question: How LF is supposed to marry Sansa to Harry if she's still married to Tyrion? I don't think that LF gives a shit about religion, but there might be some people in the Vale that does, right?

I can't remember if only the High Septon can set aside a marriage that has not been consummated or not. I always thought he planning a sizable gift to the Faith once Cersei had been removed.

[HodorForKing]

I don't know if the Weeping Water is large enough to hold war galleys. Additionally, I would think that Roose would keep his normal compliment of 600 seasoned vets to guard over the Dreadfort.

Probably Roose smart enough to suspect of his Northern allies, and leave some 600 hundred men in Dreadfort, but If the Manderly galleys could leave, or have already left the rest of his troops some place up in the Weeping Water or even in its mouth, they might be fast enough to intercept Bolton's damaged forces before he could get to Dreadfort, and easily defeat him. but it would also be a problematic strategy basically beacuse of these three problems:

- Roose may win the battle in WF (somewhy I think thats improbable, but Stannis don't have the victory yet)

- He could flee south instead of east, to the twins or moat caillin (its also improbable considering that such a trip would be too long, and Roose's troops would probably starve before getting to some safe and friendly keep)

- This "interception force" may be not fast enough to intercept Roose, or can be mislead by a winter snow strom (Manderly may have left them there way before the battle between the Boltons and Stannis, so they would have time enough to get the route from WF to Dreafort, but we cannot be sure of that)

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Probably Roose smart enough to suspect of his Northern allies, and leave some 600 hundred men in Dreadfort, but If the Manderly galleys could leave, or have already left the rest of his troops some place up in the Weeping Water or even in its mouth, they might be fast enough to intercept Bolton's damaged forces before he could get to Dreadfort, and easily defeat him. but it would also be a problematic strategy basically beacuse of these three problems:

- Roose may win the battle in WF (somewhy I think thats improbable, but Stannis don't have the victory yet)

- He could flee south instead of east, to the twins or moat caillin (its also improbable considering that such a trip would be too long, and Roose's troops would probably starve before getting to some safe and friendly keep)

- This "interception force" may be not fast enough to intercept Roose, or can be mislead by a winter snow strom (Manderly may have left them there way before the battle between the Boltons and Stannis, so they would have time enough to get the route from WF to Dreafort, but we cannot be sure of that)

Retreating to the Dreadfort and holding up is Roose's ace in the hole. It could be as you say, and the Northern alliance cuts him off, but I suspect that Roose, being the brilliant tactician that he is, has already set aside a strong guard and an escape route back to his own lands.

Taking a look at the Northern map, there is quite a bit of territory that has to be covered to cut off a Bolton retreat.

[CountFJM]

A couple thoughts:

-re: Tyrion/Sansa, the marriage was never consummated which seems like a dealbreaker in Westeros. It certainly seemed to matter to Lysa when she was hallucinating a betrothal btw Sansa and her snotty little kid

-One sign of Sansa's evolution from pawn to player is her understanding of the balance of power in the Vale. To pull from an old SSM (paraphrased from a report post SoS):

"I commented that Littlefinger is really powerful now that he has the Riverlands and supposed control of the Eyrie. GRRM laughed and said that I need to remember that for all his power Littlefinger has no army."

LF is buying time, bribing allies, and generally manipulating events to keep him (and Sansa) relevant in the Vale, but the lord with the army is Bronze Yohn Royce. The most powerful Arryn bannerman and Harry the Heir's chief proponent. And a guy who was practically in rebellion over Lysa's failure to call her banners in the War of the Five Kings (presumably in support of Robb and the riverlands). There are connections btw the Starks and the Royces, and it was a Royce Cat recommended Robb name his heir when she wouldn't hear of legitimizing Jon. Theorically, he is Sansa's most natural ally if she is to learn how to play the game, outmaneuver LF, and finally return home.

-What are Roose's options should (best case scenario) Stannis join with the White Harbor 300 and defeat the Freys with relatively light losses? He's still in a strong position to hold WF with his own men but his "powerful friends in the Lannisters and Freys" are on downward spirals...and does he even care about WF beyond its immediate tactical significance? Somehow, I just dont see him meeting his end early in WoW in a battle for WF, even if all that comes to pass. Too much mystery about the burned book in Harrenhal, the clear leeches, and his general nonchalance towards the "squabbling of spoils" to think that's all there is to him

[Queen Elsa]

I don't think he has any pretensions in taking the North at the present time, but as GRRM proved many times, everything can change.

It's true but a thing like this should never be ignored 'coz the players never know what kind of twist and turn they'll gonna encounter ahead. What if the northmen fought the battle but Tyrion reap the reward at the end? That's why Stannis never cared about Lady Lannister's claim to WF coz you never know (some people also wish Sansa and Tyrion will find happiness with each other as a married couple so that's that).

Now you made me raise a question: How LF is supposed to marry Sansa to Harry if she's still married to Tyrion? I don't think that LF gives a shit about religion, but there might be some people in the Vale that does, right?

Yeah, LF doesn't give a shit about religion nor Sansa is married. He himself had an affair with Lysa while Jon Arryn was still alive. I won't be surprise if he'll tell Sansa to seduce Harry so she can manipulate him instead of marrying them.

I can't remember if only the High Septon can set aside a marriage that has not been consummated or not. I always thought he planning a sizable gift to the Faith once Cersei had been removed.

Even if the HS can do that, it will not be an easy thing to pull off coz Sansa is also wanted for regicide. If she's revealed, she still needs to prove that she took no part in killing Joffrey so hopefully the faith won't give her a trial, but what if they do? Dontos, her only witness and the one who gave her the hairnet with poisoned amethyst, is dead. I don't think Olenna will admit she took the amethyst and put it on Joffrey's cup, or LF will say, "I'm the mastermind."

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

A couple thoughts:

-re: Tyrion/Sansa, the marriage was never consummated which seems like a dealbreaker in Westeros. It certainly seemed to matter to Lysa when she was hallucinating a betrothal btw Sansa and her snotty little kid

-One sign of Sansa's evolution from pawn to player is her understanding of the balance of power in the Vale. To pull from an old SSM (paraphrased from a report post SoS):

"I commented that Littlefinger is really powerful now that he has the Riverlands and supposed control of the Eyrie. GRRM laughed and said that I need to remember that for all his power Littlefinger has no army."

LF is buying time, bribing allies, and generally manipulating events to keep him (and Sansa) relevant in the Vale, but the lord with the army is Bronze Yohn Royce. The most powerful Arryn bannerman and Harry the Heir's chief proponent. And a guy who was practically in rebellion over Lysa's failure to call her banners in the War of the Five Kings (presumably in support of Robb and the riverlands). There are connections btw the Starks and the Royces, and it was a Royce Cat recommended Robb name his heir when she wouldn't hear of legitimizing Jon. Theorically, he is Sansa's most natural ally if she is to learn how to play the game, outmaneuver LF, and finally return home.

1. You are right about Lord Royce. The six lords declarant alone can muster 20,000 men. However, I think Bronze Yohn can raise by far the most men individually that the other five. It took an absolute huge payoff by LF to Lady Waynwood for her to defy Bronze Yohn and wed Harry to Sansa. He remains the long obstacle to LF and wants nothing more than to remove him.

I completely forgot about that connection that Cat raised concerning a member of house Royce having a distant claim to Winterfell. I agree that Lord Royce and Sansa need each other. In my estimation, their best bet is saving Sweet Robin and raising him to maturity, not Harry the Heir.

2. Tywin told Tyrion that any marriage not consummated can be set aside by the High Septon.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Even if the HS can do that, it will not be an easy thing to pull off coz Sansa is also wanted for regicide. If she's revealed, she still needs to prove that she took no part in killing Joffrey so hopefully the faith won't give her a trial, but what if they do? Dontos, her only witness and the one who gave her the hairnet with poisoned amethyst, is dead. I don't think Olenna will admit she took the amethyst and put it on Joffrey's cup, or LF will say, "I'm the mastermind."

Everything flows from Cersei. If she is found guilty, Joffrey was no true Baratheon and no true king. Her only threat was Cersei being in power.

[Queen Elsa]

Everything flows from Cersei. If she is found guilty, Joffrey was no true Baratheon and no true king. Her only threat was Cersei being in power.

Many expect she will win her trial, but if she loses and she'll be kicked out from the story so soon, hurray for Sansa coz LF power in the Vale also ties in with the throne unless he has a backed up plan.

[HodorForKing]

Retreating to the Dreadfort and holding up is Roose's ace in the hole. It could be as you say, and the Northern alliance cuts him off, but I suspect that Roose, being the brilliant tactician that he is, has already set aside a strong guard and an escape route back to his own lands.

Taking a look at the Northern map, there is quite a bit of territory that has to be covered to cut off a Bolton retreat.

I was thinking about that too; if they want to intercept Roose, they would need a really big interception force, or they would get dangerously close to Dreadfort itself... Considering Rooses intelligence he will try to get to his keep by an alternative route, or go to some different destination. I'm sure he still have a card up his sleeve, but if he survives TWoW I'll get really angry...

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I was thinking about that too; if they want to intercept Roose, they would need a really big interception force, or they would get dangerously close to Dreadfort itself... Considering Rooses intelligence he will try to get to his keep by an alternative route, or go to some different destination. I'm sure he still have a card up his sleeve, but if he survives TWoW I'll get really angry...

I would love to see Davos with Rickon and Osha coming back to Winterfell to come across Roose. They debate about him when all of a sudden, Shaggydog bursts out growling. Rickon then sics him on Roose.

[yushkevsh]

For those of you familiar with the Matrix trilogy, remember when Morpheus and his crew fired of the EMP and destroyed the machines inside their city? At first it seemed like a great victory until the commander informed them that the EMP also took down their own defenses, thereby handing the city to the machines "on a silver platter."

I can't help but imagine a similar scenario here whereby the horn is blown to summon the giants of the earth, perhaps to eliminate the Others, but it backfires. Either the giants destroy the Wall or some other major side effect that leaves Westeros even worse off than before. Just a thought. :)

How it ties in to this discussion is in part because GRRM mentioned some characters will be killed off soon and with an imminent battle taking place at Winterfell it's safe to say, important people are going to die. Probably a few of them. So the battle for Winterfell may be interrupted by the Others, giants, maybe both ... Mance is definitely up to something and it seems highly probable (considering his location and timing) it will affect the upcoming battle..

[Freedman49]

Roose Boltons time must be near an end. Stannis will defeat the bastard in the field then take Winterfell. The Boltons have to many enemies inside and outside the gates. Roose himself may escape to the Dreadfort to be dealt with at a later date, maybe by un-catlyn.

I tend to think Little fingers number is also about up. Sansa is slowly learning how to play the game and I think will remove LF once she has the Vale through Harold. Think she will convince Harold and the vale armies to wipe out the Freys to avenge her mother and brother and might do for LF when he stands in her way. Also think the black fish will surface somewhere in the vale and may have an influence on her/ this. The vale armies will then free the Riverlands and later support Rickon as the Stark in Winterfell.