[tWoW spoilers] the struggle for Winterfell

[Cala]

Just a few hours ago, I read this thread on the Dance with Dragons forum:

It basically states that Theon notices whip marks on Jeyne Poole´s back on the wedding night. Jeyne was given to LF by Cersei after everything that happend in KL with Ned. In this thread it´s indicated that LF has his little fingers in the game about WF too, since those whipmarks could come from "training" Jeyne to be one of his girls and also maybe fake Arya.

So somehow LF is in WF, too, even if not personally. He seems to know that "Arya" is a fake which might be another ace in his sleeve. To be honest, I am having a lot of trouble figuring out what this might mean and if it might have an effect on the upcoming battle around WF... It freaked me out when I read it, because I totally missed that.

Also, Roose is not an idiot. He already questions the loyalty of his bannermen in ADWD. I not sure whether the only plan he has left is to run off the the Dreadfort.

That said, these are all loose ends... Can someone else figure them out? :dunno:

[Beastman]

Don't worry just a few more years and all will be reveiled.

[Lady Pounce of Whiskerrun]

I think we'll see what way that goes, I'm wondering if 'giants from the earth' is literal actual giants or a figure of speech for something else that's buried, but I guess we need the horn first.

This is really interesting...we hear a little about firewyrms, fire-breathing creatures that live beneath the earth and burrow through rock. If it's well established that there are/have been horns to control dragons, could a horn that calls "giants from the earth" affect firewyrms? We also hear a lot from Melisandre about "waking" dragons. Different potential parallels.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Just a few hours ago, I read this thread on the Dance with Dragons forum:

http://asoiaf.wester...nes-whip-marks/

It basically states that Theon notices whip marks on Jeyne Poole´s back on the wedding night. Jeyne was given to LF by Cersei after everything that happend in KL with Ned. In this thread it´s indicated that LF has his little fingers in the game about WF too, since those whipmarks could come from "training" Jeyne to be one of his girls and also maybe fake Arya.

So somehow LF is in WF, too, even if not personally. He seems to know that "Arya" is a fake which might be another ace in his sleeve. To be honest, I am having a lot of trouble figuring out what this might mean and if it might have an effect on the upcoming battle around WF... It freaked me out when I read it, because I totally missed that.

Also, Roose is not an idiot. He already questions the loyalty of his bannermen in ADWD. I not sure whether the only plan he has left is to run off the the Dreadfort.

That said, these are all loose ends... Can someone else figure them out? :dunno:

Littlefinger just wanted the girl after Arya disappeared. With enough wolf clothing, she could be mistaken for Arya. I think Littlefinger had some other plan for her, but when Bran and Rickon were "killed" he kept her around to wed a Lannister ally, maybe after some money changed hands.

Roose has probably left Winterfell. He realizes that is Ramsey wins, Winterfell is fine and he isn't needed. If Ramsey looses, Roose's chances to live are small because he doubts the loyalty of his own bannermen. So the Dreadfort is the only place he can be safe at.

[Cala]

Littlefinger just wanted the girl after Arya disappeared. With enough wolf clothing, she could be mistaken for Arya. I think Littlefinger had some other plan for her, but when Bran and Rickon were "killed" he kept her around to wed a Lannister ally, maybe after some money changed hands.

Roose has probably left Winterfell. He realizes that is Ramsey wins, Winterfell is fine and he isn't needed. If Ramsey looses, Roose's chances to live are small because he doubts the loyalty of his own bannermen. So the Dreadfort is the only place he can be safe at.

Re Roose: That would make a lot of sense and suit him well! I could absolutely see that happening.

Regarding Jeyne and Littlefinger. So you believe this was just good fortune for him and he didnt put a lot of thought in it but just used what he made of her when he thought the time was right? While i could really see him doing that, there´s also a lot of danger in faking a Stark. But on the other hand and yet again... Who´s to pin it on him? So you might well be just right. :)

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Re Roose: That would make a lot of sense and suit him well! I could absolutely see that happening.

Regarding Jeyne and Littlefinger. So you believe this was just good fortune for him and he didnt put a lot of thought in it but just used what he made of her when he thought the time was right? While i could really see him doing that, there´s also a lot of danger in faking a Stark. But on the other hand and yet again... Who´s to pin it on him? So you might well be just right. :)

I think he did put a lot of effort into her training her at one of his brothels, but before Bran and Rickon were "killed" I think he was just going to say "Oh, looky here, I found Arya." Then after Theon took Winterfell, he held onto her so that he could use her whenever, and gave her to Tywin before he left to the Vale.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I think he did put a lot of effort into her training her at one of his brothels, but before Bran and Rickon were "killed" I think he was just going to say "Oh, looky here, I found Arya." Then after Theon took Winterfell, he held onto her so that he could use her whenever, and gave her to Tywin before he left to the Vale.

I disagree. I don't thing the idea manifested itself until the alliance with Roose Bolton was secure, and Roose Bolton's demands became clear.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I disagree. I don't thing the idea manifested itself until the alliance with Roose Bolton was secure, and Roose Bolton's demands became clear.

Then why would Littlefinger still have held Jeyne?

[zuzu94]

It would be so cool if the horn of joramun was in the crypts of winterfell, but deep beneath the crypts where no on ever goes. It would be a real turning point in the story

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Then why would Littlefinger still have held Jeyne?

To make her one of his working girls.

[Cala]

To make her one of his working girls.

So was it even LFs idea to fake Jeyne as Arya or was it Tywins later on?

[Heyo Winter Comin']

So was it even LFs idea to fake Jeyne as Arya or was it Tywins later on?

Littlefinger's little spiel to Sansa about his schemes are worth looking at. He has a lot of stuff going at once, he probably just took jeyne and made her a working girl on the off chance that she could come in handy in some way later on. I doubt he conceived her as a fake Arya from the start.

[aryagonnakill]

It wasn't even his idea originally to take her. Cersei just pawned her off on him when Sansa asked about her dad.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

It wasn't even his idea originally to take her. Cersei just pawned her off on him when Sansa asked about her dad.

Exactly, she was little more than an afterthought. LF was just going to make her a whore and call it a day. When the plot with Roose Bolton came into fruition, Tywin and the rest of the think tank knew that Bolton's chances of quieting the North would increase if he had a daughter of Ned Stark. The Lannisters never put out to the rest of the realm that they did not have Arya, so it just made sense.

Tywin's overall plan was to ultimately seat his grandson by Tyrion and Sansa on the throne of Winterfell. Bolton was simply a stopgap solution to get rid of Stannis and mollify the North.

[The Manticore Knight]

Am I the only one that thinks Roose was only waiting for Ramsay to get Jeyne pregnant so he could kill the bastard and rule Winterfell through his grandson?

IIRC, Roose himself states to Theon that he doesn't believe that any son he could get would be safe while Ramsay lives

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Am I the only one that thinks Roose was only waiting for Ramsay to get Jeyne pregnant so he could kill the bastard and rule Winterfell through his grandson?

IIRC, Roose himself states to Theon that he doesn't believe that any son he could get would be safe while Ramsay lives

Not likely. Remember that he also tells Theon in this same chapter that it is likely for the best that Ramsay kills off any siblings. He goes on to state that he will not live long enough to see anymore sons to adulthood and that boy lords are the bane of houses.

Roose despises Ramsay for killing Domeric, but knows that Ramsay is his only real option at this point.

[Siddard Stark]

Well i would like to say tht declaring the identity of Sansa is not a big problem for LF, as she is the heir of King Robb Stark, her claim to winterfell is stronger than Arya as she is the oldest of the 2 girls( rest of westereos believeing Bran and Rickon are dead). So marrying her to Harry wouldn't be hard i don't think you need the High Septon, i recon a Septa could verify Sansa's maidenhood, once maidenhood is proved and tht her previous marriage was not consumated and she was forced to wed tyrion her marrige with tyrion would be broken and she would be free to wed Harry. LF said Sansa needs to use her charms to get Harry to like her and the rest is a done deal between LF and Lady Wanyewood. With house Royce being cousins to House Stark Lord Yohn Royce will be first to accept Sansa and will be first to pledge his houses support to her, followed by house waynewood thus giving Sansa power and protection. Sansa alleged killing of Joffery can been seen as revenge from the Stark supporters. The Vale lords wanted to declare for Robb and now they have a heir of Robb Stark to declare for. IF Ser Brynden Tully shows up in the Vale he would gather the Vale lords and seek revenge on the freys for killing his King and family. This can become a plot move to bring back Tully rule in the riverlands. A lot can happen,

Now going to WF the garrison left at dreadfort is mostly old men and greenboys. Ramsey took the 600 men to attack Ser Rodrik outside winterfell and then he join with the Umbers at barrowtown. All of Roose Boltons men are at winterfell. The 2000 freys, 600+ Ramsey's men and 300 manderly men are marching to engage Stannis. The manderly force might betray the freys force to stannis or they can join up with Robbet Glover who might be bringing a 2nd northern army to retake WF if GNC is true. I recon if GNC is true the northern lords might be playing it safe to bleed both Stannis and Roose forces. As i recon they have learned a lot from the actions of Roose Bolton at (Duskendale survivor Robbet Glover), then Ruby Ford (survivor Wylis Manderly). So the northern lords want to bleed Roose's forces before they engage him.

[Petyr Patter]

Well i would like to say tht declaring the identity of Sansa is not a big problem for LF, as she is the heir of King Robb Stark, her claim to winterfell is stronger than Arya as she is the oldest of the 2 girls( rest of westereos believeing Bran and Rickon are dead). So marrying her to Harry wouldn't be hard i don't think you need the High Septon, i recon a Septa could verify Sansa's maidenhood, once maidenhood is proved and tht her previous marriage was not consumated and she was forced to wed tyrion her marrige with tyrion would be broken and she would be free to wed Harry. LF said Sansa needs to use her charms to get Harry to like her and the rest is a done deal between LF and Lady Wanyewood. With house Royce being cousins to House Stark Lord Yohn Royce will be first to accept Sansa and will be first to pledge his houses support to her, followed by house waynewood thus giving Sansa power and protection. Sansa alleged killing of Joffery can been seen as revenge from the Stark supporters. The Vale lords wanted to declare for Robb and now they have a heir of Robb Stark to declare for. IF Ser Brynden Tully shows up in the Vale he would gather the Vale lords and seek revenge on the freys for killing his King and family. This can become a plot move to bring back Tully rule in the riverlands. A lot can happen,

The lack of consummation is what makes an annulment possible at all, and tradition and law dictates only a High Septon can grant it. There were joined in front of gods and some of the top nobility in Westeros. It is

It is one of the reasons I think a Sansa and Harold marriage is just not going to happen.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

The lack of consummation is what makes an annulment possible at all, and tradition and law dictates only a High Septon can grant it. There were joined in front of gods and some of the top nobility in Westeros. It is

It is one of the reasons I think a Sansa and Harold marriage is just not going to happen.

But what's really stopping them from just getting the highest ranking septon in the Vale, get him to 'seriously consider' the issue and decide that Sansa's coerced unconsummated marriage isn't valid and that she's free to marry Hardyng. Like, what are the realistic consequences of this action? Are the Vale Lords going to refuse to recognise it, or would the High Sparrow decide to excommunicate the Vale?

And as a Stark, Sansa could just play the bullshit card and say that a marriage in her family can only be considered valid if its before the Old Gods. Then again is that bullshit?! It's how Ramsay and fArya were married. For all I know it's true

[Brother Seamus]

As the OP's question, there is little doubt that Stannis will take Winterfell:

1. The Freys are being led by Hosteen Frey. A strong fighter, but poor commander.

2. As previously mentioned, the Manderlys are simply waiting for an opportunity to defect. Lord Manderly may not survive, but he left his remaining son at White Harbor and brought Roose Bolton no hostages to take.

3. Ramsay and his men are in the field as well, but Stannis and his men have dug traps in the ice and are poised for a sound victory.

4. Hothar Umber and number of other lords who wish to betray Roose Bolton will likely begin fighting from the inside of Winterfell and open a gate.

5. Mors Umber and his men are still about looking to further weaken Roose's host.

The only question is whether Roose and/or Ramsay escape back to the Dreadfort? If so, he will likely be able to hold out for years as he has done in the past.

I agree, Stannis and his northern allies, which will include manderly and probably both umber uncles before it's all over, will take winterfell in the first half of wow, and rickon or benjen or both will be in charge of it.