A Complete Analysis of the Upcoming Siege of Winterfell Part 1

[BryndenBFish]

Hi folks, I just finished the first part of my analysis of the upcoming siege of Winterfell on my blog. You can find the analysis here. Mostly, this is just background information taken from A Dance with Dragons. But I think it's important information. I'll hope to get into the meat of the battle in part 2 which I'll write and publish sometime soon.

Thank you everyone from the forum for their helpful comments and suggestions on how to align the Crofters' Village! Special thanks to aryagonnakill and Brother Seamus.

If you have comments or suggestions, feel free to comment below or on my blog itself. Thank you!

[HannibalStark]

did Stannis bring Mel to Dragonston? I had the distinct feeling Stannis doesn't have any control over Mel....Mel inserted herself "with" Stannis by nuzzling up to his wife (I am not sure if we have been told how this happened) but his wife was the one involved with the Red Priests/Priestess and took on the whole religion and it wasn't until Mel had his wife practically hanging on her every word and pretty much doing whatever Mel told her that Stannis and Mel were finally introduced??? Or then became involved (with whatever that means)

I realize its a little point, and your post is about the War in the North.... but I was pretty sure Stannis had ZERO control over Mel and basically (IMO these Red Priests sent Mel to Westeros, to find a 'weak link' to leach on to....someone in a position of power, or close to someone in a position of power....and Stannis was basically forced to accept Mel because of his wife, and because Mel (who has spent over 3/4 of her supplies of potions and spells and glammors convincing (or basically tricking) Stannis that she actually has powers/magic so she SHOULD be at his side.

I also got the feeling that all this happened after Stannis had withdrawn to Dragonstone.... not that Stannis had anything to do with wanting , or seeking Mel or any Red Priests out for any reason.

Thoros was sent to spread the religion at court in Westeros by ingratiating himself with Robert but made no more headway than becoming Robert's entertainment and drinking buddy.

After seeing that Thoros failed, and IMO after Robert died (maybe they even saw his death in their flames) They sent Mel to attempt to do the same thing that Thoros failed to do....but she was definitely sent, not summoned by Stannis ----i

I bring this up because I think Mel will have something to do with the Others ( I am actually not what side she is actually on) but she will be in the middle of events with the Others at the Wall in some way or another.

But it also seems like she had no idea that she was suppose to go to or be at the Wall (or wouldn't she have tried to go their first?) until Davos learned to read (which is kinda strange and makes me think she has no idea how to read the future in the flames...or maybe its just the opposite and she actually slow rolled her hand and knew all along that Stannis would loose the Battle/Blackwater and just pretended not to know about the Wall and let Davos be the one that lead Stannis.....?

[Slayer of Lies]

Hi folks, I just finished the first part of my analysis of the upcoming siege of Winterfell on my blog. You can find the analysis here. Mostly, this is just background information taken from A Dance with Dragons. But I think it's important information. I'll hope to get into the meat of the battle in part 2 which I'll write and publish sometime soon.

Thank you everyone from the forum for their helpful comments and suggestions on how to align the Crofters' Village! Special thanks to aryagonnakill and Brother Seamus.

If you have comments or suggestions, feel free to comment below or on my blog itself. Thank you!

I thoroughly enjoyed reading your “setup,” and look forward to the second installment!

One thing that hit me the other day is GRRM specifically uses the phrase “battle of ice” (e.g. in this interview), but he never mentions “battle of Winterfell,” at least in any TWOW quotes I’ve found. Not that you intend to cover anything other than the “battle of ice,” but nonetheless…

This got me thinking – because anyone who’s read ADWD wants immediate and thorough resolution to what’s going on in WF (e.g. who wrote the bastard letter, is Mance in captivity, who truly possesses the “magic sword,” etc.) – that GRRM may not have the intention of immediately paying any of that stuff off, and may choose instead to deliberately “keep us out” of Winterfell in order to continue withholding exposition of one of the series’ best cliffhangers.

As one possibility, with Asha and Theon as the only (currently logical) POVs to tell the immediate story of what happens to Stannis, what if Theon’s heart tree encounter – or the arrival of Freys – results in a catastrophic and experience for Stannis’ company instead of Bolton’s outriders?

Point being, are readers “wishfully inserting” the Winterfell component into the battle of ice quote? Or, is it simply a foregone conclusion that Stannis will win the battle of ice, then march on WF? Perhaps there are logistical reasons that Stannis has to take – or try to take – WF after surviving an attack on the crofters’ village. Or perhaps there’s a “contradicting” interview out there where GRRM specifies “battle of WF” (although that would all but give away the battle of ice outcome, wouldn’t it?).

Without wanting to poke any beehives or take sides, let’s say one of the various bastard letter theories plays out. For example, Mance has the info required to pen the bastard letter without anyone else’s involvement. Or, Mance-in-captivity has provided enough info to Ramsay to write the letter without leaving WF or battling Stannis at all. Or, Mance is working in partnership with Ramsay and is not in captivity at all. Or, the letter comes from camp Stannis instead of WF. Or… whatever your favorite theory is involving some element of deceit or untruth.

In nearly every case, I think it’s at least worth considering that Stannis never makes it inside WF, or perhaps never even leaves the crofters’ village, dying on site and forsaking his “magic sword.”

Or, if Stannis does march on WF, in order to tell the story of what happens there, Asha and/or Theon would need to live through the “heart tree experience” to provide a POV window, which is certainly possible, and possibly the most likely outcome. In fact, since it seems fairly clear to me that both Asha and Theon have to survive for Asha’s kingsmoot plan to work and for that storyline to resume, both POVs would likely be in play to tell the WF story next, followed later by their return to the iron islands.

But what if they both die? What if one of them dies, and one of them escapes? Or what if they both escape instead of moving onto WF to provide a POV window into subsequent events?

In any case, based on GRRM’s quote, it seems clear that “battle of ice” simply refers to the “battle at the crofters’ village,” and does not inherently imply Stannis’ victory or a follow up battle at WF, despite that it feels like a foregone conclusion.

To make it clear, I wouldn’t argue for any of that to happen, nor do I think it would tell the best possible story.

Instead, it seems like Stannis faking his death via ravenmail, the Manderlys overtaking the Freys at the village, the frozen lakes full of fishing holes, and/or Bran’s intervention at the heart tree are some of the better vehicles in play that would result in a crofters’ village/battle of ice victory, followed naturally by a continued march toward WF.

But I thought I’d throw this notion out there as it plays into all the possible “battle of ice” conclusions.

[Slayer of Lies]

did Stannis bring Mel to Dragonston? (snip)

While it does seem Melisandre came to Dragonstone of her own accord, Tywin states (via Tyrion’s last chapter in AGOT) that “Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai,” implying that it was Stannis’ decision/action that resulted in her arrival. Of course, Tywin next wonders aloud whether any of Varys’ whispers are true, meaning (to my recollection) that it’s left somewhat unclear whether Stannis was talked into doing so by either his wife or Melisandre herself.

It also seems equally as clear that Melisandre came to Dragonstone because of her strong belief that Stannis was AA, despite the now-known fallibility of her interpretation of her own visions.

In any case, I have a strong feeling that Mel will be at the Wall providing the POV window into what’s going on at Castle Black, since Jon’s first chapter will likely kick off with him warged into Ghost…

…meaning Mel is unlikely to be involved in the telling of the battle of ice or a siege of WF, IMO.

[WargMeIn]

I think GRRM's reason for saying "battle of ice" instead of Winterfell or crofters village is that one way out of the chaos surrounding Jon at the wall is to have the Others choose that time to attack - that would stop everyone in their tracks and give Jon time to recover or die in peace.

[BryndenBFish]

Part 2 is up

[mb2518]

I think Roose Bolton will die in the battle at Winterfell. "Many of us will not live to see spring" is a line of foreshadowing if you ask me.

[BitsOfBrains]

Good write up.

My personal theory is that if the battle goes down at Winterfell there will be a giant snowdrift that the men can use as a ramp to gain at lest the outer wall.

[Slayer of Lies]

While I thoroughly enjoyed your analysis/projections, and have come to several of the same conclusions (as possibilities) myself, it does feel that a truly thorough analysis of the battle of ice would factor in alternate authors of the pink letter, in order to truly be unbiased and cover all the possibilities.

For example, if Ramsay wrote the letter, is Mance in captivity? Not having POV confirmation of Mance's supposed capture could be really important...

If Mance wrote the letter, because he has all of the required info, does Stannis even need to live/march on WF?

If the letter comes from camp Stannis, say, with Asha's help, might events at Winterfell play out differently?

What about the hooded man? Will he/his identity come into play?

Will Bran's "intervene" either at the crofters' village or WF?

What POVs will provide the window into everything you suggest will happen?

What happens after Stannis takes WF, if he does? Will Tormund arrive before, during, or after? What happens then?

What happens after that? Will everyone live happily ever after? For me, Stannis successfully taking WF is actually not that great of a sign, because something terrible is sure to happen to his company shortly thereafter... You don't kill Roose and Ramsay and just ride off into the sunset with so much story left to tell...

In any case, leaning a little heavily on tactics, there are some possible scenarios missing for me. Although, that may be by design, and shouldn't take anything away from your accomplishment. I just figured I'd provide some open questions if you're inclined to consider them in a subsequent editing pass.

[kalifumestokalifa]

Thank you,

It was a very helpfull recap and a good speculation about future developments.

[shiola]

Holy shit OP, thanks so much for the write up. So easy to follow. Concise and well-written. The perfect thing to jog my memory since it's been a while since I picked up ADWD.

[BryndenBFish]

Holy shit OP, thanks so much for the write up. So easy to follow. Concise and well-written. The perfect thing to jog my memory since it's been a while since I picked up ADWD.

Ha. Thanks. I had a lot of help from you all in writing it. I'm glad you liked it.

While I thoroughly enjoyed your analysis/projections, and have come to several of the same conclusions (as possibilities) myself, it does feel that a truly thorough analysis of the battle of ice would factor in alternate authors of the pink letter, in order to truly be unbiased and cover all the possibilities.

For example, if Ramsay wrote the letter, is Mance in captivity? Not having POV confirmation of Mance's supposed capture could be really important...

If Mance wrote the letter, because he has all of the required info, does Stannis even need to live/march on WF?

If the letter comes from camp Stannis, say, with Asha's help, might events at Winterfell play out differently?

What about the hooded man? Will he/his identity come into play?

Will Bran's "intervene" either at the crofters' village or WF?

What POVs will provide the window into everything you suggest will happen?

What happens after Stannis takes WF, if he does? Will Tormund arrive before, during, or after? What happens then?

What happens after that? Will everyone live happily ever after? For me, Stannis successfully taking WF is actually not that great of a sign, because something terrible is sure to happen to his company shortly thereafter... You don't kill Roose and Ramsay and just ride off into the sunset with so much story left to tell...

In any case, leaning a little heavily on tactics, there are some possible scenarios missing for me. Although, that may be by design, and shouldn't take anything away from your accomplishment. I just figured I'd provide some open questions if you're inclined to consider them in a subsequent editing pass.

1. Very possible that Mance is not in captivity, but w/o confirmation either way, we'll have to wait for TWOW to confirm. I'm assuming that Ramsay wrote the letter for the sake of my argument, but it's possible it could be on of the other candidates frequently mentioned: Mance, Stannis, Asha (my actual preferred candidate), Melisandre, a spear wife, etc.

2. Hm, it's possible that it might affect the events at Winterfell, but I'm not entirely sure how it affects the outcome of the battle at the Crofters' Village - perhaps it causes Ramsay to call off his contingent from moving on the village.

3. I'm of a divided mind on the Hooded Man. I tend to think that the culprit is Theon Durden or the spear wives/Mance + Big Walder Frey. I do see the potential for the culprit being Robett Glover. I also think if the culprit is still at large (or even if not), there is a possibility for further dissension in Bolton's ranks at WF.

4. I don't think Bran will intervene, but if Asha/Theon escape during the battle, I'd like to imagine that Bran will be the POV for the battle. I think that would be a cool way to view the battle at the Crofters' Village, kind of like how Arya sees Nymeria decimating the Brave Companions pursuing her in ASOS through her wolf dream.

5. Asha, Theon, Bran, Davos

6. If the GNC is true, then Stannis is abandoned by his Northern Allies, is potentially thrown out of WF, heads back to Castle Black to reorganize, re-arm. Lots of possibilities there. If GNC is not true, Stannis holds the castle, coalesces further support from the rest of the Northerners within the walls of Winterfell. I think he takes pledges of fealty from Houses Umber, Stout and Locke and potentially from the Ryswells and Dustins as well.

7. I think the North is in immediate danger of the Others invading. I think any victory that Stannis achieves will be short-lived when the Others invade. I also think that either Roose or Ramsay or both survive the battle - for story purposes, I think they will be needed to provide antagonist characters for TWOW/ADOS.

Thanks for the comments. I may edit a little further still, but we'll see.