The Warrior's Sons, The Poor Fellows and the Faith of the Seven

[Freefolk4life]

Just wanted to see what people thought about how The Warrior's Sons, The Poor Fellows and the Faith of the Seven will impact events as they unfold.

We know that the High Septon is making some big changes in KL, and that the military orders of the seven are becoming larger and more powerful, but who will they support in the War for the Iron throne?

It can't be Stannis.

It could be the Tyrells.. (Tommen/Margery).... but if Cersei is found guilty of incest and Tommen proven a bastard surely they can't support him.

It could be fAegon... this seems likely to me in some respects, because it makes for a decisive victory if when he attacks he gains support from within KL.

Any thoughts on what role we will see these factions play?

[armidil0]

I think they could go for fAegon as the most likely candidate. If Cercei is found guilty, what other king can they go to? Stannis picked a god already, Renly is dead and there is no one else fighting.

They might just say, screw the king, we rule ourselves like before the Targaryens came, but I don't see it being likely.

[chrisdaw]

Varys has orchestrated their rising, they will support Aegon. Who do they support after Aegon dies I think is the pertinent question.

[Giveitaday]

I have a hard time picturing the Faith Militant backing fAegon, after all, why support a dynasty that had already once hounded the Faith Militant into non existence. I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see the Faith (Under the High Sparrow) use it's newfound military prowess to press it's own bid for the iron throne.

[chrisdaw]

The Faith militant is a means to an end, in ideal circumstances it doesn't exist. It's the current houses, Lannister in particular, that has lead to the situation where the HS feels the need to recreate the Faith militant. The Faith militant disbanded when the Targaryen king promised the crown would always protect the Faith.

Varys makes the point to Kevan that part of the reason he is killing him is to prevent the HS from crowning Tommen and Aegon's piousness, given we see Varys in the Faith garb it's likely he has a line into the Faith and a plan for Aegon to be embraced by the Faith. Aegon won't want to disband them tho, he will want their swords.

There's also a narrative perspective. The second dance is coming, Aegon vs Dany, and we've witnessed Benerro praising Dany as the Lord of Light's chosen one, at the same time the Faith is emerging as a military force and Varys is playing them for Aegon. The ducks are being aligned for a religious angle to the second dance.

[Daenor]

The Faith militant is a means to an end, in ideal circumstances it doesn't exist. It's the current houses, Lannister in particular, that has lead to the situation where the HS feels the need to recreate the Faith militant. The Faith militant disbanded when the Targaryen king promised the crown would always protect the Faith.

Varys makes the point to Kevan that part of the reason he is killing him is to prevent the HS from crowning Tommen and Aegon's piousness, given we see Varys in the Faith garb it's likely he has a line into the Faith and a plan for Aegon to be embraced by the Faith. Aegon won't want to disband them tho, he will want their swords.

There's also a narrative perspective. The second dance is coming, Aegon vs Dany, and we've witnessed Benerro praising Dany as the Lord of Light's chosen one, at the same time the Faith is emerging as a military force and Varys is playing them for Aegon. The ducks are being aligned for a religious angle to the second dance.

Good points.Though i want to mention that thus far Dany doesn't seem to be concerned much with religious matters.She might have been attracting the attention of the Red God's priest but this doesn't mean she'll be in league with them at any point of the story.

[chrisdaw]

Whether Dany embraces them spiritually or not I doubt she'll turn down their swords if they're offered. And given Volantis is on the way West and is a slave haven, I highly expect she or her forces will be stopping by (there's high expectations from the slaves there), and that Benerro will want to contribute to her cause.

[Bloodmane]

A weak king/queen fits best to the apparent religious philosophy of the High Sparrow. If Varys was right (and he tends to be) Tommen is to be acknowledge by the Faith as King. If given a strong reason to reject Tommen, from the Dany-fAegon-Stannis trio fAegon seems the weakest (a puppet of Connington) ... also Stannis already embraced R'hlor, and Dany might do the same.
The only problem is that we are talking about GRRM's universe, and the High Sparrow may not be who he seems, and may have other priorities than the Fate's interests.

[chrisdaw]

I doubt the HS is not what he seems. The guy gets off on scouring floors on his knees all day then ripping the flesh from his back in the night, because it helps him feel closer to his gods.

I disagree his philosophy requires a weak king too, he wants a king with total authority who will end all inner and outer turmoil and keep a pious court. His whole motivation for doing what he's done has been the failings of the rulers to keep the peace and sins of the court.

[Bloodmane]

The HS scrubs the floor and flagellates himself, yes but also achieved the following:
1. The religious fanatics elect the HS, not the lickspit high clergy
2. The Faith exert judiciary authority (even when queens are concerned)
3. The Faith regained the right to military power
4. The representatives of the monarchy goes to audience to the HS to negotiate (while he sends only message-bearing envoys to the Court )
5. The HS sets conditions to be met by the monarch prior to acknowledging him

A strong monarch (possibly even a pious one) will never accept such terms, as the Targ have shown. The Faith HAD those attributes, the Maegor-Jaeheris bad cop - good cop action relieved it from them.

Actually the Faith was strongest with NO KING (before Aegon) when they "ruled over the soul" (to use the Catholic term and admit the Emperor-Pope analogy that I had in mind while writing these posts) of at lest five kingdoms, while the Kings being the lords of one - rarely two- kingdoms.

[chrisdaw]

So where between his extremism is there room for him to be more than he seems? What more might he be?

His "achievements" serve a purpose and have been brought about by this specific self serving rule, in the Faith militant he aims to protect the smallfolk, in his refusal to defer to Cersei he is attempting to humble her. These acts are not necessary where there is a suitable monarch.

[newbieone]

Looks like the Faith might be the happiest with a Targ revival, but one never knows. For obvious reasons they can't be Stark fans, though they did respect Ned, I think. Nor can they be in Stannis's camp unless Stannis goes back to The Seven, which is not unlikely, I think. They're probably not oblivious about C+J, so supporting the Lannisters is probably out of the question. Might be they'd support a Baratheon bastard, but I wouldn't bet too high on that.

[Hos the Hostage]

Contenders for the throne at present, including the king:

1. Tommen: Seven

2. Myrcella: Seven

3. Stannis: R'hllor

4. Shireen (I'd have kept them on same number, but is Shireen devoted to R'hllor? She reminds me of Queen Mary I in some ways)

5. Daenerys: Godless as far as I know, but soon to be joined by a red priest, and followers of drowned god. Most proximate army available to her at the moment include followers of the Horselord. She has had ties with too many religions, and the one with the seven is the weakest.

6. Aegon: Seven

7. Euron: Godless, but will be seen as a follower of the Drowned God by everyone in Westeros (other than the Ironborn)

8. Victarion: Drowned God

Possible future contenders:

9. Sansa: Follows both the Seven and the Old Gods, married according to the customs of the Faith

10. Arianne: Seven

11. Gendry: R'hllor. (It is very unlikely that anyone will bring him forward as an heir, but not to be discarded entirely)

12. Edric Storm: Seven

I crossed the names of people the Faith will not support in any way. The Lannisters hold an upper hand at the moment because the Faith do not see anyone else acceptable to their cause. I think Cersei won the trial. But Tommen and Myrcella may die somehow.

The Faith does not know about Daenerys, and they don't care about prophecies or Others. And she has unhealthy association with too many other religions. They could support her out of fear for dragons or out of desperate circumstances. The only pro-Faith thing Dany has done is the freeing of Slaves, which might make her appear a benevolent queen to the poor and helpless. The Faith need not know what happened to the freedmen in Meereen. And Slavery seems to be one of the worst crimes in Westeros. Also, the smallfolk, who comprises a good portion of 'poor fellows', seems to love good-looking people. Like Rhaegar, Margaery and Renly. A great deal of hatred towards Tyrion is due to his appearance. But these are the only things I can think of, that may make the Faith favor Daenerys. I think unless the political situation evolves drastically to demand it of themselves, the Faith will NOT support Dany.

If the Faith is acting on their own, and the High Sparrow is not an agent of Dorne or Littlefinger, I am curious as to their endgame in the event of the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella. Kidnap Shireen? Find Robert's bastards? Crown Arianne? Even if Doran had no hand in the High Sparrows actions(which I am not sure), Arianne and Trystane could be the last living Targaryen descendants following the Seven. The people suffered most due to High Sparrows actions belong to the Houses of Lannister and Tyrell, two houses that hated most by the Martells.

Or, maybe the whole movement is arranged by Littlefinger. The Vale Lords worship the Seven. Marrying Sansa to Harry will bind the North to the Seven, which could be in the High Sparrow's interests. Littlefinger is also very perceptive of the thought process of common people, himself being not very highborn. He can make good use of the Poor Fellows. Only contradiction of interest I see is that LF owns a lot of brothels, the septons want brothels banned. Given Littlefinger's history, even this could be a hint that the two are working together. Cersei recalls some septon who visits brothels by dark and speak against them in the day, or something like that.

The third possibility, and apparently the most probable one, is they are pieces in Varys's game, knowingly or unknowingly. Aegon backed by GC is a very good prospect for the Faith to support, the only question is his credibility. Will there be a trial by combat for that? I'd like to see that.

To summarize, I see four driving forces for the Faith's men:

1. Serve their own interests

2. Serve Doran's interests/Pawns of the Dornish Masterplan

3. Pawns in Littlefinger's game involving Sansa

4. Pawns in Varys's game involving Aegon

And the IT contenders who will get their support will be:

Aegon, Arianne, or Sansa.

Wild Card: Edric Strom, currently in Pentos. Could be a wild card and a puppet king of the faith. If Stannis and Shireen dies, Davos being the Hand can fetch him back and install Edric as the Lord of Storm's End. Davos follows the Seven, despite all his interactions with the red witch.

Edit: I missed (almost)everybody's favorite future contender for the Iron Throne:

13. Jon Snow-turned-Targaryen

But he follows the Old Gods, so not in the Faith's agenda. Unless Rhaegar married Lyanna in front of the current High Septon and convinced him about PtwP/Azor Ahai. Jon has no chance of getting the Faith's support. Crossed off.

[Amoracchius]

As others have suggested, I think that the two new holy orders will back fAegon. Baelor the Blessed got them to stand down by promising that the Targaryan kings would always defend the Faith. If a Targ claimant show up now, after the Baratheon-Lannisters have failed so utterly to protect septs, septons, septas, and the smallfolk and while the Queen Mother stands accused of treason, he might be too tempting of a candidate to ignore.