Is there room in the story for Stannis' army to lose to the Bolton's forces?

[theriveryeti]

With Tywin gone this will be a possibility, however Stannis is Iron and will kill Roose for his betrayal at the Red Wedding.

Does Stannis know Roose betrayed Robb at the Red Wedding?

[SunflashJT]

Does Stannis know Roose betrayed Robb at the Red Wedding?

At this point I think it is rather common knowledge that the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters were behind the Red Wedding.

[Whitering]

If there are two books left, then I think Bolton has to win. If there are three then Stannis can win. We don't have time for much of a change in my opinion. My opinion depends on what I think the Others need to achieve and the total number of pages I feel is required to meet that need.

[Brother Seamus]

my prediction is stannis will win. the theon sample chapter and last couple of asha chapters foreshadow this: the holes in the ice, stannis's comment about holding the ground, and other comments/circumstances. the basic theory of how it plays out - freys lured onto the weakened ice, manderly forces change sides mid-battle, mountain clansmen hidden in the woods to flank the attackers - has been addressed at length on the forum. I buy it.

and I think that's consistent with stannis's personality/story arc. he's the bitter-ender, the guy who never gives up, the pit bull who sinks his teeth in and never lets go, the guy who plays every card in his hand for everything it's worth.

stannis was clearly intended to be an unsympathetic character in the first two books, but now I'm really rooting for him.

[emptyhands]

I believe Stannis will win altough I think all ods are against him.

He suffered a lot with cold attrition, has no cavalary, his army is outnumbered, unsupplied, disorganized (after it was snow burried) and, most of all, his army is mostly made of southerns (with a few northmen allied) who cant deal with the cold winter.

The Bolton army is mostly composed of Northmen, is well sheltered and well supllied (they even throwed a party).

It looks for me that Stannis is playing Hitler or Napoleon against Russia and, if history has teached us something, is that u dont start a land war in Russia (or the north, in Westeros).

The only advantage Stannis got is himself, a proven and skilled warcomander while the north has no one with his abilities.

One thing worth remembering, though, is that Stannis has a history of holding out while undersupplied. Obviously, that doesn't mean his success is guaranteed, but it's at least a factor worth considering.

[King Beyond the Firewall]

I believe Stannis will win altough I think all ods are against him.

He suffered a lot with cold attrition, has no cavalary, his army is outnumbered, unsupplied, disorganized (after it was snow burried) and, most of all, his army is mostly made of southerns (with a few northmen allied) who cant deal with the cold winter.

The Bolton army is mostly composed of Northmen, is well sheltered and well supllied (they even throwed a party).

It looks for me that Stannis is playing Hitler or Napoleon against Russia and, if history has teached us something, is that u dont start a land war in Russia (or the north, in Westeros).

The only advantage Stannis got is himself, a proven and skilled warcomander while the north has no one with his abilities.

That being said, I dont like to think Stannis will win because the book does nto have room for another Stannis defeat.

One thing that I like about ASOIF, is that big shit happens and life goes on....

Maybe Stannis is defeated and retreats to the wall

The Boltons get a pyrric victory, Ramsay kills Roose trying to estabilsh himself as Lord paramount.

He captures "Arya", makes she crie, her tears angry the other northerns lords and since his troops are depleeted he gets murdered. Then, the north turns to Stannis if he agrees to installs Rickon at Winterfell

I can see that happen.... Dont think its going to, just invented that.... My point is that everything can happen, even a Stannis defeat....

This is true but the Boltons have a killer in their midst causing the Freys and Manderleys to be at each others throats (literally in Wyman's case). Plus it seems like the Manderleys are set to turn cloak.

[Ser-Hodor]

Remember Dany's vision "blue eyed king with no shadow"..might mean Stannis lives at least long enough for them to cross paths

[Direwolf Blitzer]

Good idea for a thread. This whole series is so damned unpredictable.

Lot of questions to be asked here. First, to me, is: What is George's endgame? Is the political situation going to resolve itself prior to what we assume is a showdown with the Others? Do we need sufficient numbers of humans alive? If you answer yes to those questions, I think it's natural to assume that Stannis has to win. The bad guys have had so damned many victories in this series that the good guys have to pull something off, at some point. Someone needs to unite the clans, so to speak. But since this is GRRM, I'm willing to imagine an ending in which every major House is essentially doomed, and Jon Snow defeats the Others all by himself, only the 7 Kingdoms are a burning wreck and Jon is doomed to some kind of eternity in ice-zombie purgatory.

Jojen does say that the wolves will return to Winterfell; does this foreshadow a Winterfell resurgence happening "on-screen" so to speak, or will we just get a series epilogue suggesting that the Starks have returned to rebuild, i.e. an 18 year old Rickon finally returns to Winterfell?

Remember Dany's vision "blue eyed king with no shadow"..might mean Stannis lives at least long enough for them to cross paths

Quite possible. Maybe Stannis loses so much of his magic semen that he casts no shadow. On the other hand, maybe the blue eyes are wight-blue, and it's Night's King. Or maybe Stannis casts no shadow in a metaphorical sense, i.e. he has no army, and no real power.

@Brother Seamus,

Is that, like, an Irish monk?

[LadyOlennaTyrell]

Though I really like his character, I really think that Stannis will eventually die early in the next book and loose the Battle of Ice (this can be two separates issue, but though)..., for two reasons:

1) Jon Snow.

Melisandre won't heal / resurrect him, without the conviction he is Azor Ahai and Stannis is not. Regarding what we know now, she only has doubts about Jon, not cleary related (by her) to the myth of Azor Ahai. Only Stannis' death could demonstrate the contrary to her, and turn her head towards Jon.

2) Narrative reasons.

. Stannis' unexpected death could be another twist in Martin's writing.

. Stannis' characterization is already fully done, he doesn't seem like someone who can evolve any further. He only needs an epic death.

. Stannis would have win, it would be a much longer plot to develop: retaking the North as a whole is not just retaking Winterfell, he would have to develop other alliances, without Davos helping him. There's still a quiproquo to resolve with the Manderlys. Keeping the status quo with the Boltons ruling the North is a shorter way to deal with the issue, and not to delay that much the Others' invasion.

. "Stannis wins the North", and then ? What's in store ? He waits years for the sellswords he bought...

. Much more interesting repercutions: Shireen is without any protector. It jeopardizes the loan with the Iron Bank. His troops are far from the Wall (likely dead or prisoners, at the best disbanded) when the Others will attack. It adds story and character development to Davos, a POV character. No one will keep the "new" Night's Watch from dealing with the Free Folk its own way... It stages the worst conditions ever for the Others' invasion. On the other side, keeping the Boltons much longer is more interesting: Roose still has some secrets, I can't help thinking that the pale blue eyes are linked in some way to the Others, as well as the leeching (some prevention against the Others maybe); Ramsey can be worse than he already is, chasing "Reek" and "Arya".

[Pod The Impaler]

From what's there in the text, I would think it improbable that the Boltons & Freys prevail in the upcoming battle. Their main gambit with the Karstarks fell apart with the arrest if their leader. The Umbers are divided, and likely even Roose's allies have no love for the Boltons. The Manderlys are clearly feigning loyalty, and even Roose sees it. Who knows about the Dustin & Ryswell forces under Lady Barbrey. The murders inside Winterfell have them at each other's throats. Even Roose's northmen are looking at the Freys like they're pie-worthy. Worse, the unexpected loss of "Arya" is going to sow confusion in their ranks.

However, I wouldn't put it past GRRM to throw such a plot swerve at us. Nothing in this tale seems to progress from A to B in the expected manner. Perhaps Stannis loses due to happenstance, or treachery. Perhaps the Freys turn cloaks again to support him. Perhaps "Arya" being rescued means the Northmen no longer want to fight for him. Perhaps something else happens to thwart him securing the North.

I rule nothing out. Not even Rhaegal turning up suddenly and devouring Theon out of sheer random chance.

[Areo Speedwagon]

With some of these responses, you'd think Martin throws darts at a board blindfolded to figure out what will happen.

. Stannis' unexpected death could be another twist in Martin's writing.

Sure, but as said above, Martin doesn't twist for the sake of twisting. Every massive event in the series so far (i'm sure there are exceptions) hasn't actually been a plot twist (at least not like Keyser Soze or Tyler Durden), but shocking that author had the balls to actually go through with it. Crazy as the RW was, the seeds were there all the way back in Clash.

Stannis' characterization is already fully done, he doesn't seem like someone who can evolve any further. He only needs an epic death.

I'm not sure it is. When we met him his foremost concern was for what was his by right. Now, he's thinking of the realm. I think he's kind of becoming Ned 2.0. Tywin's military acumen (or greater) but he actually gives a shit about honor and justice. It seems like that's EXACTLY the kind of person you want around to clean up 6 books worth of treachery and douchebaggery. Nedwin!

I don't mean to say I think I know what will happen, I don't. but as someone said above, Stannis has a knack for not letting go, for hanging on.

Perhaps the Freys turn cloaks again to support him. Perhaps "Arya" being rescued means the Northmen no longer want to fight for him.

MAN would I like to see that (the Freys bit) and what Stannis would do. Most likely burn them all, but not before some epically dry and witty comments. As for the second part about Arya, why would that be their reaction? They all still hate the Freys and Boltons, I can just as easily see them having the same thoughts as Jon Snow and consider Stannis the King who Cared.

[A Dance with Davos]

It's something I have been debating in my mind for a while. I have to agree with Aero Speedwagon about Stannis' position as being a hybrid Ned and Tywin. Maybe that was the true secret in the Tower of Joy ? Tywin and Ned's unspeakable forbidden love and their resulting love child.

The battle of Winterfell seems like it is in Stannis' favour. Some very interesting plot points would arise from his defeat and death, but I think GRRM must have a fair few things planned for him. The only surviving king of the five and the only legit male Baratheon ?

I wouldn't like to say that it is very likely that Stannis will win Winterfell, but if he did I imagine there could be a possibility of a repeat of his defence of Storms End. Snowed in and surrounded by Others as he sends Jon Snow to do some kind of main hero work.