Roll Call - Who all is present at Castle Black for the Bowen Marsh coup

[JonisHenryTudor]

Don't do it lol I know it will be tempting but ...don't lol

I could, but twitchy finger and all

Yea I'm worried I'll suddenly realise it's 4am and the kids are up in a few hours... Oh what a Mel POV, I'll put the cereal and milk out on the table now they can fend for themselves from there

I would just play sick and send them to in-laws if nearby?

[Mourneblade]

Didn't Cersei send some men to the Wall to help with any attempt at removing Jon as LC?

Yep

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Didn't Cersei send some men to the Wall to help with any attempt at removing Jon as LC?

Intended to. Under the command of Ser Osney Kettleblack. Who is still in the dungeons below the Sept of Baelor. That entire scheme fell through when Cersei got herself arrested.

Yep

See above.

[Mourneblade]

Intended to. Under the command of Ser Osney Kettleblack. Who is still in the dungeons below the Sept of Baelor. That entire scheme fell through when Cersei got herself arrested.

See above.

yep I forgot about that...

[VicAndTheSquidSquad]

He never felt the fourth knife. ...Was the fourth knife supposed to be Alf's (the only builder with Bowen in the shieldhall)? Might Othell have prevented him ?

Only the cold He only feels the cold. What happened to the pain that had washed over him ? Earlier, in ACoK(?) Ghost seemed to draw on Jon's strength when he was injured, and in pain. I wouldn't rule out that the same thing is happening here, to Jon's benefit.

I think he was stabbed by the fourth knife. "He never felt" is just referring to that he was in so much pain (and was half dead till then) that he couldn't feel it.

And the cold means his death and/or maybe the coming of the Others.

[JonisHenryTudor]

I think he was stabbed by the fourth knife. "He never felt" is just referring to that he was in so much pain (and was half dead till then) that he couldn't feel it.

But he felt the cold? That doesn't make sense, nor is it consistent.

[VicAndTheSquidSquad]

But he felt the cold? That doesn't make sense, nor is it consistent.

It is like when they talk about death by cold. At the and they don't feel pain at all.

Or something like that.

[JonisHenryTudor]

It is like when they talk about death by cold. At the and they don't feel pain at all.

I think you are stripping the context from the entire scene, which is incredibly important. Jon is not in some remote abandoned village when the attack occurs. He is right in the middle of CB surrounded by people.

He also see's Ghost most likely due to the fact that he actually speaks Ghost's name, something an individual would do if they actual saw the object/person they called out for. He doesn't think Ghost, but actually speaks ghost.

Pain. You are taking this as if Jon has never been wounded.

He was struck three times. One is a slash on his neck, and a gut shot. We have no indication how deep the wound is. Just that he began bleeding. He was also struck with daggers, not swords. Huge difference in size. So basically we have one scratch essentially, a potential nasty gut shot, and a hit to the back. There is absolutely no mention of blood, or pain really in the 3rd blow. Only that he was hit. He could have been hit by a blunt object or pushed to the ground.

Also, if he is in so much pain, how can he feel the cold, try to unsheathe his sword, but not be able to feel an actual blow? That doesn't make any sense. This entire attack probably occurred in maybe 30 seconds. Were not talking about a man who was stabbed and left there for several minutes or hours. Shock and hypothermia are not likely a factor yet.

Again, Ghost. He is most likely on scene. That could explain the lack of a 4th blow. In Jon's head he probably expected a 4th, but it never came. Why because it had been diverted, or the attackers had their attention diverted. It could be a combination of things, such as Ghost, an ally, or the cold.

Only the cold...

It suggests that either intervention arrived or the Others have arrived. The leaked material offers a suggestion...you will see soon enough if you already have not.

But aside from being incredibly vague, the scene does not provide enough information to suggest that Jon was wounded enough to fall into a coma or death.

[bemused]

Didn't Cersei send some men to the Wall to help with any attempt at removing Jon as LC?

As noted above, she intended to.. including the Kettleblack she had falsely confess to sleeping w. Margaery (of course with a promise of return once Jon was dealt with. Naturally, she saw the Kettleblacks as her men, while we know they are first LF's... and of course, to whatever degree they were hers, they have turned on her.

Then in the epilogue, Kevan tells us he'd allow the men who slept with Cersei to take the black. Will his plans be carried through, or will Cersei try to resurrect her scheme? Either way, it would open the door to all sorts of double dealing, and potentially give LF agents at the wall.... hmmmm.

[VicAndTheSquidSquad]

I think you are stripping the context from the entire scene, which is incredibly important. Jon is not in some remote abandoned village when the attack occurs. He is right in the middle of CB surrounded by people.

He also see's Ghost most likely due to the fact that he actually speaks Ghost's name, something an individual would do if they actual saw the object/person they called out for. He doesn't think Ghost, but actually speaks ghost.

Pain. You are taking this as if Jon has never been wounded.

He was struck three times. One is a slash on his neck, and a gut shot. We have no indication how deep the wound is. Just that he began bleeding. He was also struck with daggers, not swords. Huge difference in size. So basically we have one scratch essentially, a potential nasty gut shot, and a hit to the back. There is absolutely no mention of blood, or pain really in the 3rd blow. Only that he was hit. He could have been hit by a blunt object or pushed to the ground.

Also, if he is in so much pain, how can he feel the cold, try to unsheathe his sword, but not be able to feel an actual blow? That doesn't make any sense. This entire attack probably occurred in maybe 30 seconds. Were not talking about a man who was stabbed and left there for several minutes or hours. Shock and hypothermia are not likely a factor yet.

Again, Ghost. He is most likely on scene. That could explain the lack of a 4th blow. In Jon's head he probably expected a 4th, but it never came. Why because it had been diverted, or the attackers had their attention diverted. It could be a combination of things, such as Ghost, an ally, or the cold.

Only the cold...

It suggests that either intervention arrived or the Others have arrived. The leaked material offers a suggestion...you will see soon enough if you already have not.

But aside from being incredibly vague, the scene does not provide enough information to suggest that Jon was wounded enough to fall into a coma or death.

Ok. I just had a feeling that at the end of the scene jon was a little unconscious.

"When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold ..."

It said he never felt it. But it was there.

And when I read the chapter I thought ghost wasn't there. He just called his name like when you cry for help by instinct. But maybe it's just me.

[Whitering]

I don't know if they put it in the show or not, but Mel burned an eagle out of the air with internal combustion or something. We don't really know how powerful she is but I am sure she's creeped out the Watch men and she almost certainly would know if she was in danger, so she's pretty safe I would think.

For me, I am quite sure that her and Bran are likely the most powerful people we've seen in the books, maybe Bennero and Moqorro as well, those priests of R'hllor....

[JonisHenryTudor]

Ok. I just had a feeling that at the end of the scene jon was a little unconscious.

"When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold ..."

It said he never felt it. But it was there.

And when I read the chapter I thought ghost wasn't there. He just called his name like when you cry for help by instinct. But maybe it's just me.

I mean you could be right. IMO that is a knee jerk reaction. AND believe me when I first read it I threw the dam book....then I relaxed, breathed, drank some kool-aid (not really) and realized wait a second....this doesn't fit.

[three-eyed monkey]

Although neither were present at the time, I believe both Pycelle and Harys Swift had a major part to play in the assassination attempt.

I don't have the books at hand so I can't quote directly, but in AFfC Cersei chairs a meeting of the small council, at the time consisting of Swift, Pycelle, Qyburn, and one or two others I think. Jon Snow is on the agenda, and the fact that the traitor Ned Stark's bastard is assisting the rebel Stannis. Swift and Pycelle advise writing to Castle Black to force the Watch to remove Snow, but Cersei has a "better" plan and insists that she will deal with the matter.

Cersei never gets a chance to put her plan into action as Kettleblack is arrested by the High Sparrow and soon after she finds herself imprisoned in the Sept too. When Qyburn visits her with some news he informs her that Swift and Pycelle are running the small council while awaiting Kevan's arrival from Casterly Rock. I believe that during this time Swift and Pycelle returned to small council business and dealt with the Jon Snow matter by doing the very thing they had advised Cersei, writing to Castle Black and insisting that Snow be removed orelse the Night's Watch will be considered traitors to the crown. This explains Marsh's demeanour and why he says "For the Watch."

From Marsh's point of view, his defence is a paper shield stamped by Tommen, which outdoes Ned Stark in terms of naivety. Wildlings, Northmen, and knights sworn to Tommen's rival for the throne all stack up against this ending well for Bowen in my opinion.

I agree with Bemused that Thorne is back, I think he's written some great posts on the subject in various threads, and he might have a part in it, but I think there is enough in the text to suggest that Swift and Pycelle provided Marsh's motive.

[The Mother of The Others]

It's not a coup, it's an anti-coup. It's a spur of the moment response to Jon's unlawful actions, thrown together without scheming or a sign up sheet, driven only by the need to preserve the dignity of the night watch's corpse if need be, or if possible to salvage whatever remains of that ancient order before the LC obliviates it all. The anti-coup won't work either way because it's Jon's POV and not theirs, but these are not the premeditated knives Cersei was trying to send against Jon---that plan imploded. These are the legit knives of the faithful watchmen that Jon brought down upon himself. I'm not saying Jon was wrong to try, just that there's no roll sheet of evil conspirators because.... no conspiracy. (Except for the one Jon had apparently cooked up with Tormund.) Jon simply fucked up in how he went about this, and he appears to have allowed Ramsay to unbalance him via bird mail, thus losing their game of chicken and providing Ramsay with an effortless victory. He found out it's not cool when you lose your cool. There was always ill will circling round Jon, as Melisandre scryed in her flames, but she couldn't warn him of any specific threat because none existed until Jon selected his own fate by forcing the hand of the watch.

[bemused]

Ok. I just had a feeling that at the end of the scene jon was a little unconscious.

"When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold ..."

It said he never felt it. But it was there.

And when I read the chapter I thought ghost wasn't there. He just called his name like when you cry for help by instinct. But maybe it's just me.

How often has GRRM said that characters may lie, misunderstand, mislead or simply be wrong .. and that though he won't lie, he may mislead, himself ?

It said he never felt it. But it was there. .

OK ,the main thing here is that we are in Jon's POV. There is no omniscient narrator to assure us that the knife is there. It's ambiguous as to whether Jon is right (there is a knife) or wrong. Jon expects a knife because he saw Bowen and his 3 companions in the shieldhall. He's seen 2 out of those 4 men attack him and felt what he reasonably assumes is a strike from a third dagger (though he can't see it)..and he reasonably expects there will be a fourth knife. But he could be (and I think,is) wrong.

And when I read the chapter I thought ghost wasn't there. He just called his name like when you cry for help by instinct.

I thought the same at first reading .. but on subsequent looks, realized we don't really know where Ghost is. So many characters' movements are unaccounted for during Jon's speech and after, Ghost could well be there before the end of the scene.

Given GRRM's record of misleading us in this way, I'd bet against Ghost still being in Jon's quarters. I feel he's either there, or on the way.

----

I believe that during this time Swift and Pycelle returned to small council business and dealt with the Jon Snow matter by doing the very thing they had advised Cersei, writing to Castle Black and insisting that Snow be removed orelse the Night's Watch will be considered traitors to the crown. This explains Marsh's demeanour and why he says "For the Watch."

From Marsh's point of view, his defence is a paper shield stamped by Tommen, which outdoes Ned Stark in terms of naivety. Wildlings, Northmen, and knights sworn to Tommen's rival for the throne all stack up against this ending well for Bowen in my opinion.

I agree with Bemused that Thorne is back, I think he's written some great posts on the subject in various threads, and he might have a part in it, but I think there is enough in the text to suggest that Swift and Pycelle provided Marsh's motive.

I think you could be right about this, there are suggestions in the text that Bowen had more communication with KL after Mormont left the Wall than should have been strictly necessary. Possibly more than Aemon was aware of. (Clydas would know) Slynt also had communication with KL at least up to the election.

I don't think Clydas is against Jon, but may be being bullied into co-operation.

(and thank you.. and it's she)

[three-eyed monkey]

(and thank you.. and it's she)

Appologies, my lady.

[bemused]

Appologies, my lady.

No apologies necessary, ser ...I mean, what matters is, we're all human.. You, me, my dog...etc. :D

I had to break off midway in my thoughts yesterday, and your post prompted some interesting thoughts. Bowen's KL communications have been a matter of curiosity for me, and frankly, I hadn't thought of Pycelle and Swyft sticking their oars in .... I could see that.

I'm not sure how the timeline would work (no doubt it's intentionally fuzzy) , but I find it compatible with the idea of Bowen and Alliser working in tandem.

So, someone in KL, very possibly S&P, send the order (or strong suggestion) accounting for the why, and Thorne provides the how. Tywin's letter adds more fuel...(or those letters in reverse order) ??

Bowen is more fearful, or apprehensive since the Bridge of Skulls, and is not a tactical thinker.

Unpopular though he is, Thorne is a master manipulator, and would seize on the suggestion for his own personal reasons.

Bowen often seems to me like a political shill. He has his "party line" to spout, but if the conversation strays into deeper waters, he's at a loss for words. This is particularly noticeable in the conversation atop the wall with Jon, the Flint and Norrey. He dutifully brings up treason, but when Jon basically asks him to define treason in the circumstances, he can't do it.

I feel there are hints to be found that the assassination plans go through a number of changes. Someone is thinking on his feet, and that wouldn't be Bowen. The actual attack seems to me to show signs of some planning (there's a possible parallel to be found in The Sworn Sword), but also a spontaneous element (having to act in the midst of chaos). It couldn't have been foreseen that Jon would opt to take only wildlings.

Thinking about your post brings a bit of clarity to what I've been thinking for some time ( though you may not see it exactly the same way). I think it could explain the idiocy of attacking Jon at that moment. Here's my possible scenario :

Thorne is in hiding at CB and has been calling the shots (feeding lines to Bowen as he previously did to Slynt). I assume they have at least read and probably altered the "pink" letter. But after the shieldhall, I think that Bowen may actually act on his own. Jon's wildling move is completely unexpected, and there would be no time to seek out Thorne's advice between the end of Jon's speech and the attack.

This casts the attack in the very same light as Bowen's response to Mance's feints. He over reacts, over commits. Mance said that if Bowen was in charge , then he (Mance) had won ... and he would have, but for Jon. .. Bowen taking charge would explain the utter stupidity of the conspirators making their move before Jon had put his plan into action ,or even made any visible preparations.

There may be a hint foreshadowing this in the way Bowen rubs at his scar when he's "discussing" Hardhome in Jon's quarters. (He's about to make the same deadly mistake) For Bowen, it will be the Bridge of Skulls all over again, with no guarantee of survival.

( If so, I imagine Thorne seething in the wormways, or Clydas' quarters.)

[three-eyed monkey]

No apologies necessary, ser ...I mean, what matters is, we're all human.. You, me, my dog...etc. :D

I had to break off midway in my thoughts yesterday, and your post prompted some interesting thoughts. Bowen's KL communications have been a matter of curiosity for me, and frankly, I hadn't thought of Pycelle and Swyft sticking their oars in .... I could see that.

I'm not sure how the timeline would work (no doubt it's intentionally fuzzy) , but I find it compatible with the idea of Bowen and Alliser working in tandem.

So, someone in KL, very possibly S&P, send the order (or strong suggestion) accounting for the why, and Thorne provides the how. Tywin's letter adds more fuel...(or those letters in reverse order) ??

Bowen is more fearful, or apprehensive since the Bridge of Skulls, and is not a tactical thinker.

Unpopular though he is, Thorne is a master manipulator, and would seize on the suggestion for his own personal reasons.

Bowen often seems to me like a political shill. He has his "party line" to spout, but if the conversation strays into deeper waters, he's at a loss for words. This is particularly noticeable in the conversation atop the wall with Jon, the Flint and Norrey. He dutifully brings up treason, but when Jon basically asks him to define treason in the circumstances, he can't do it.

I feel there are hints to be found that the assassination plans go through a number of changes. Someone is thinking on his feet, and that wouldn't be Bowen. The actual attack seems to me to show signs of some planning (there's a possible parallel to be found in The Sworn Sword), but also a spontaneous element (having to act in the midst of chaos). It couldn't have been foreseen that Jon would opt to take only wildlings.

Thinking about your post brings a bit of clarity to what I've been thinking for some time ( though you may not see it exactly the same way). I think it could explain the idiocy of attacking Jon at that moment. Here's my possible scenario :

Thorne is in hiding at CB and has been calling the shots (feeding lines to Bowen as he previously did to Slynt). I assume they have at least read and probably altered the "pink" letter. But after the shieldhall, I think that Bowen may actually act on his own. Jon's wildling move is completely unexpected, and there would be no time to seek out Thorne's advice between the end of Jon's speech and the attack.

This casts the attack in the very same light as Bowen's response to Mance's feints. He over reacts, over commits. Mance said that if Bowen was in charge , then he (Mance) had won ... and he would have, but for Jon. .. Bowen taking charge would explain the utter stupidity of the conspirators making their move before Jon had put his plan into action ,or even made any visible preparations.

There may be a hint foreshadowing this in the way Bowen rubs at his scar when he's "discussing" Hardhome in Jon's quarters. (He's about to make the same deadly mistake) For Bowen, it will be the Bridge of Skulls all over again, with no guarantee of survival.

( If so, I imagine Thorne seething in the wormways, or Clydas' quarters.)

I can't see a problem with the timimg. The first mention comes in AFfC, Cersei IV. Cersei meets with her small council for the first time, Pycelle, Lord Swyft who is acting Hand, Aurane Waters, Lord Merryweather, Lord Rosby, and Qyburn. There are a number of things on the agenda, one of the topics being Stannis at the Wall. Pycelle discloses one line of communication between CB and KL when he says if Lord Janos is to be believed then Stannis is making a common cause with the wildlings.

Cersei informs the council that the Watch have elected Ned Starks bastard as LC. She considers Jon to share Ned's traitor blood. We know that Jon sent a raven to KL, stating that the Watch would play no part in the war and pleading for more men. Cersei confirms that the letter was recieved, but considers Jon's words to be empty as he is giving Stannis food and shelter. Swyft wants Snow declared a traitor and insists the Watch remove him. Pycelle suggests they tell the Watch that no more men will be sent until Snow is removed. Qyburn suggests sending 100 men to the Wall and have them kill Snow. Cersei likes the idea, it prompts her plan to have Osney confess his crimes and take the black in order to kill Jon, so she tells the council that she will deal with the matter herself.

Once the plan backfires and Cersei ends up imprisoned in the Sept, Qyburn comes to visit and tells her that her Hand, Swyft, is running the kingdom with Pycelle's help. This is in AFfC, Cersei X, still plenty of time for a raven to reach Castle Black. I'm simply suggesting that Swyft and Pycelle got on with the daily business of running the realm. The matter of Jon Snow would still be on the agenda, and a matter of some importance as it pertains to Stannis, enemy of the state number one at this stage. Cersei had said she would deal with the matter but that seemed unlikely now, considering the turn of events. So swift and Pycelle did what they had suggested day one, wrote to the Watch declaring Snow a rebel and traitor and threatening that no more help would be sent to the Wall until such time as Jon is removed. Such a letter would hold a lot of weight with someone like Marsh, in my opinion.

So Marsh gets the letter, as Slynt is no longer available, or perhaps it arrived before Slynt's execution? Marsh finds himself in a tough place, but he has to do it, "For the Watch." I think he probably sat on it for days, or even weeks, but once Jon made it clear he was riding to Winterfell, the plan had to be put into action, with mostly reluctant assasins in my opinion.

I think we will definitely see Thorne again, and maybe he is involved in the stabbing somehow, but he doesn't have to be. I think a letter from the Hand of the King would in itself be motive enough for Marsh.

[Grissom]

it just seems way out of character for Bowen to do something so seemingly suicidal.

He's notorious for his meticulousness, Jon is impressed by how well Bowen organizes and plans details

Seems like there has to be some plan there besides getting smashed by Wun Wun, or maybe the theory of them being under some kind of spell has merit.

But it wasn't really planned out. Sure the high ranking officers didn't like Jon for quite some time, but the murder seemed to be caused by his intent to march on Ramsay, it was the last straw for them. They didn't really plan it out, Marsh did it as a last resort, you can see that he was actually crying when he stabbed Jon.

[eyenon15]

Maybe. I just expected more out of Marsh than a suicidal emotional outburst like that.