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Maybe R+L=J is not true?


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#381 House Martell

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:00 PM

I may be mistaken but isn't there supposed to be a KG guarding the Red Keep at all times also (on the bridge), so how could Jaimie guard Aerys and the Red Keep and go to the bathroom and eat and sleep? I really doubt this was just "poor planning" by super paranoid Aerys. I also think regardless of the baby in the towers status there was a time before it was born and Aerys was still alive and the KG were not fulfilling their duties.

Also if they were there to protect the rightful king they did a piss poor job riding out into an outnumbered situation and leaving the highly defensible tower unguarded. Were they worried about the 7 laying siege to the tower? were they stationed there without any arrows? or if the 7 left for more reinforcements then that would have been the perfect time to leave with the baby king.

#382 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:12 PM

As I stated in an earlier post on this thread...when I say fact, I mean FACT! I am not referring to any of my assumptions or theories. My point is that it is easy to make intelligent assumptions and theories when you do not ignore the facts.

Also, when I say she had the child before the sack I am not saying no one changed her sheets in a month. I have witnessed women having extended complications from childbirth, and also heard of a woman dying three months after childbirth due to an infection, so it is certainly possible.

As far as everything else you have stated...believe as you wish. You seem to answer your own questions without realizing it.

I appreciate you editing your post, because it was quite rude when I first read it. /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />


truthfully, i think bold and shouty capitals are rude, albeit with more subtlety so thats why i initially reacted. not to mention that saying i am not using facts or deriving plausible theories from them, but you are, without more is just a subtle ad hom ...and though that would make for interesting hearings, judges don't tend to find them very compelling, so we tend to stay away from them. but, sarcasm is also rude, which is why i retracted mine. so, i apologize for that. we're all human, and we all get riled.

still, the "facts" you're talking about elude me. where is fact that jon snow is born before the sack? i am pretty sure that all the facts point to it being later...but if i missed one, i'm always happy to hear ones i missed. if all you're saying is that the bed of blood can be 3 months later and isn't meant to be taken literally then that's fine -- i still disagree w/you since i think after 3 months, you're more likely to hear other descriptions like fevered bed or whatever, but that would close up some plot holes so i'll concede that it's the most likely explanation for the timing of jon snow's birth.

still, it still doesn't answer my argument, which is: the 3KG still should have been with their very alive king if jon was born b/f the sack or after -- they should have been with their king as soon as rhaegar died. i don't think it was right for them to be w/lyanna instead of aerys. if you do, that's fine. i just disagree -- but that's a different sort of disagreement -- one based on opinions.

#383 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:14 PM

I may be mistaken but isn't there supposed to be a KG guarding the Red Keep at all times also (on the bridge), so how could Jaimie guard Aerys and the Red Keep and go to the bathroom and eat and sleep? I really doubt this was just "poor planning" by super paranoid Aerys. I also think regardless of the baby in the towers status there was a time before it was born and Aerys was still alive and the KG were not fulfilling their duties.


THIS. i don't know if i just didn't say it right, but this is what i've been trying to say for several posts now--so thank you house martell.

#384 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:16 PM

You don't have the timeline right, if I understand you correctly. The Kingsguard were sent to guard Lyanna before Rhaegar died. At that time, there were 1-4 Kingsguard with the King at various points, in addition to the hundreds of soldiers in the city itself, so they weren't leaving the King unprotected.



The Kingsguard were doing their duty when they sent to the ToJ, in that they were following their orders. But after Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon died, their orders ought to have been nullified by the new circumstances.


but my point is that a lot of time goes by in between rhaegar dying (and his commands with him) and aerys dying. at the point where rhaegar dies, the KG duty reverts back to following their king--aerys. as house martell stated, much clearer than i did -- they were not fulfilling their duties to a king for a period of time -- i.e., the period of time after rhaegar dies, before aerys dies.

Edited by summer_stark, 01 July 2012 - 09:16 PM.


#385 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:17 PM

I may be mistaken but isn't there supposed to be a KG guarding the Red Keep at all times also (on the bridge), so how could Jaimie guard Aerys and the Red Keep and go to the bathroom and eat and sleep? I really doubt this was just "poor planning" by super paranoid Aerys.


This question is answered in Storm of Swords. The Kingsguard are allowed to be apart from the king (like, say, during staff meetings) so long as someone else is with the king. The first thing Jaime asks when they assemble is, "Who is with the king?" They answer him — the king is guarded — and then they proceed with the meeting.

And I don't remember anything about the Kingsguard having to guard the Red Keep specifically. They're attached to people, not buildings. I'd like a text reference to back this up, in case I'm mistaken.

I also think regardless of the baby in the towers status there was a time before it was born and Aerys was still alive and the KG were not fulfilling their duties.


So long as at least one of them was with Aerys — and there was, Jaime — they were not in dereliction of their duties. Ned asks them this when he confronts them — they believe their duty is at the Tower.

Edited by Apple Martini, 01 July 2012 - 09:20 PM.


#386 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:19 PM

but my point is that a lot of time goes by in between rhaegar dying (and his commands with him) and aerys dying. at the point where rhaegar dies, the KG duty reverts back to following their king--aerys. as house martell stated, much clearer than i did -- they were not fulfilling their duties to a king for a period of time -- i.e., the period of time after rhaegar dies, before aerys dies.


Considering how closely the Sack followed the Trident, and how slowly news travels, it's possible that the Kingsguard at the Tower didn't know about the Trident or the Sack until BOTH had already happened.

Edited by Apple Martini, 01 July 2012 - 09:19 PM.


#387 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:21 PM

Brandon Stark+Ashara Dayne=Jon Snow wake up sheeple


Brandon was already dead by the time Jon was conceived.

#388 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:28 PM

Considering how closely the Sack followed the Trident, and how slowly news travels, it's possible that the Kingsguard at the Tower didn't know about the Trident or the Sack until BOTH had already happened.


that, imo, is the most plausible theory so far..

as to asos answering the issue, i don't think it's the same -- yes, i know what you're talking about -- i just re-read asos this weekend for the hell of it--so i think i actually read that chapter today, and thought of it when i was arguing about the 1 kg thing...but, it's different, i think we can agree. going to a meeting for a few minutes (which literally is as long as it is until he dismisses the first person) and leaving the king in the care of someone else for that moment, is different from putting 1 KG with the king and his heir's son in favor of putting 3KG w/the pregnant wife of the 3rd or 4th, depending on the time, in line--for several months.

and, war was coming close to them -- even if it wasn't yet on their doorstep, didn't the king think hey where's my lord commander?? i mean i guess not b/c he's nuts and paranoid...but it still strikes me as poorly planned at best, and a failure of their duties at worst. they'd obviously heard the news about the trident...if it was before they heard about the sack, then imo they should not have stayed.

Edited by summer_stark, 01 July 2012 - 09:29 PM.


#389 Margaery'sKickassGrandma

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:36 PM

I wouldn't get too caught up in whether the KG should have been with Aerys. It seems to me to be an underlying theme that while Jamie is ultimately the Kingslayer, he wasn't the only KG who failed in his duty to Aerys. I think that Rhaegar told the ToJ KG that under no circumstances were they to leave Lyanna. Even if Rhaegar had survived, I think he had decided that enough was enough of Aerys on the throne, as his father had spun so clearly out of control. My hunch is that he asked these KG, among them his best bud Arthur Dayne, to stay and guard Lyanna no matter what, whether he died in battle or got caught up in family drama in Kings Landing. AD probably knew everything, and when Lyanna gave birth to a boy, his charge became all the more important as he was protecting the new king.

Of course, Ned knew that without Lyanna to talk him out of it, Robert would have Jon killed straightaway, and got him out of there ASAP.

And I wouldn't find it quite so strange that Rhaegar chose Dorne as his hiding spot- it was as far from Winterfell as he could get, the Dornish are known to be secretive and distant from the affairs of King's Landing, and the proximity to Starfall probably helped even more.

#390 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:37 PM

that, imo, is the most plausible theory so far..

as to asos answering the issue, i don't think it's the same -- yes, i know what you're talking about -- i just re-read asos this weekend for the hell of it--so i think i actually read that chapter today, and thought of it when i was arguing about the 1 kg thing...but, it's different, i think we can agree. going to a meeting for a few minutes (which literally is as long as it is until he dismisses the first person) and leaving the king in the care of someone else for that moment, is different from putting 1 KG with the king and his heir's son in favor of putting 3KG w/the pregnant wife of the 3rd or 4th, depending on the time, in line--for several months.

and, war was coming close to them -- even if it wasn't yet on their doorstep, didn't the king think hey where's my lord commander?? i mean i guess not b/c he's nuts and paranoid...but it still strikes me as poorly planned at best, and a failure of their duties at worst. they'd obviously heard the news about the trident...if it was before they heard about the sack, then imo they should not have stayed.


We don't know what they were thinking because we only have outside, third-hand, outdated information. The overall point I'm making, again and again and again, is that the idea that the Kingsguard were somehow in dereliction of their duty during the war is flat-out not true. It's not up to you to decide "how many" Kingsguard "count." If there's a Kingsguard with the king, which Jaime was, there's no issue. You're also not considering the fact that there were likely hundreds if not thousands of other guards in the vicinity to "pick up the slack," or that Darry and Selmy at least were in King's Landing up until the Trident.

#391 salt

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:49 PM

Dot dot dot or was he?

Robert's Rebellion took "about" a year. We don't know if it was 10 months or 12 months or 14 months. Its not impossible that Jon could have been concieved before Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard. Ned only would have needed to alter the baby's age by around a month.


I think R+L=J is true like everyone else, but thats boring as hell so I like to entertain other ideas, like Brandon+Ashara=Jon and Rhaegar+Lyanna=Young Griff (Aegon)

Edited by salt, 01 July 2012 - 10:02 PM.


#392 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 09:51 PM

Dot dot dot or was he?


Robert's Rebellion took "about" a year. We don't know if it was 10 months or 12 months or 14 months. Its not impossible that Jon could have been concieved before Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard. Ned only would have needed to alter the baby's age by around a month.


I think R+L=J is true like everyone else, but thats boring as hell so I like to entertain other ideas, like Brandon+Ashara=Jon and Rhaegar+Lyanna=Young Griff (Aegon).


The war didn't officially begin until Jon Arryn called his banners, if I understand the semantics, which happened after Brandon was killed. Jon was born at the end of a war that lasted "about a year." Even if you take 10 months, that puts Jon's conception about one month into the war — that is, one month after Arryn called his banners — and thus after Brandon was dead. Brandon cannot be Jon's father. /tongue.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' />

#393 salt

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:10 PM

But if there was a BABY SWAP, we don't know exactly when Jon was concieved/born. We only have Ned's word for that, and under this theory (which I don't really believe) he would be hiding the truth. Considering it lasted "about" a year, its not impossible to say that Jon was concieved by Ashara at the tournament where Rhagera takes Lyana, and is born 9 months later, when the war is a month or 2 away from ending. Ned could have theoretically fathered a bastard his first month or so at war, and the baby of Rhaegar+Lyanna would have been concieved pretty soon after the torunament as well.

If Ned said a 10 week old baby was a 5 week old baby, who's going to disagree? Is Cat going to examine the baby? She didn't even want to look at Jon when he was grown up.


Brandon impregnantes Ashara, Rhaegar impregnates Lyanna. Lyanna makes Ned promise to save the baby before dying from childbirth, Ned sees a little purple eyed clearly Targ baby and knows he couldn't hide it in Westeros so when he goes to return her brother's sword he BABY SWAPS with Ashara, who goes along with it because she knows the baby will be given a good life by his Uncle Ned, and because, uh, she belives in the PTWP prophesy? We know Rhaegar was pretty obsessed with it and talked to Elia about it, so as Elia's comapnon at KL she could have heard about it. She leaves for Essos and hooks up with Jon Connington who she would have known from her time at KL when he was Hand, and creates the identity of Septa Lemore.


To me one of the problems with this in the anagram in Septa Lemore. The sigil of House Dayne is a meteor flying over a sword, and Dawn was said to have been forged from a meteor. Ashara Dayne supposedly leapt off a cliff to kill herself.

S E P T A L E M O R E = METEOR LEAPS

She supposedly jumped from a tower called Palestone Sword. S E P T A L E M O R E = PALE METEORS

Aha, very clever. Too clever, sounds like a red herring. Not sure if Westerosi even use the term "meteor".

Edited by salt, 01 July 2012 - 10:17 PM.


#394 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:10 PM

We don't know what they were thinking because we only have outside, third-hand, outdated information. The overall point I'm making, again and again and again, is that the idea that the Kingsguard were somehow in dereliction of their duty during the war is flat-out not true. It's not up to you to decide "how many" Kingsguard "count." If there's a Kingsguard with the king, which Jaime was, there's no issue. You're also not considering the fact that there were likely hundreds if not thousands of other guards in the vicinity to "pick up the slack," or that Darry and Selmy at least were in King's Landing up until the Trident.


i'm not making a judgment about them abandoning their duties in the strict sense, as i've now said like 3 times. i'm making a moral judgment about what they should have done, which is obviously going to be my opinion. i have every right to make a moral judgment about what i think the KG should have been doing. i am not saying that they deserted or abandoned in some legally punishable way -- i am saying they are morally culpable. and moral judgments are personal judgments, not legal ones. that's the distinction i am trying to make, but obviously failing miserably at doing.

as you think 1 is enough, i think the fact that 7 exist means that 7 should be with the king unless they are doing something for the king (eg fighting his war), or resting/eating/bathing etc. yes, we don't know what they were thinking--but we do know that the KG is usually with the king, as far as the current novels are concerned, except when one is sent here or there, like to guard a princess. so, no, i don't think they should have been with lyanna--whether they were legally in the clear since one KG doesn't free them of their own duty to the king. yes, they thought they were keeping their vow--but that vow was to rhaegar, unless there's something we don't know about lyanna and aerys--and as rhaegar was not king, it strikes me as a failure to leave the king with 1KG.

and, other guards don't make up for the fact that the kings own guards aren't there. i have considered it. it just doesn't strike me as compelling evidence -- and here's why: if other people can do the job, what is the point of 7 kingsguard? why have 7 at all? because we want several people whose sole job it is to guard the king. it's like saying we don't need more than a couple of secret service, we have some fbi around so the president should be fine. i know you will say but they had a meeting and talked about other people guarding the king -- but a staff meeting is qualitatively different from leaving a king for an extended period of time.

Edited by summer_stark, 01 July 2012 - 10:14 PM.


#395 Lady Tippy Wolfsbane

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:11 PM

truthfully, i think bold and shouty capitals are rude, albeit with more subtlety so thats why i initially reacted. not to mention that saying i am not using facts or deriving plausible theories from them, but you are, without more is just a subtle ad hom ...and though that would make for interesting hearings, judges don't tend to find them very compelling, so we tend to stay away from them. but, sarcasm is also rude, which is why i retracted mine. so, i apologize for that. we're all human, and we all get riled.

still, the "facts" you're talking about elude me. where is fact that jon snow is born before the sack? i am pretty sure that all the facts point to it being later...but if i missed one, i'm always happy to hear ones i missed. if all you're saying is that the bed of blood can be 3 months later and isn't meant to be taken literally then that's fine -- i still disagree w/you since i think after 3 months, you're more likely to hear other descriptions like fevered bed or whatever, but that would close up some plot holes so i'll concede that it's the most likely explanation for the timing of jon snow's birth.

still, it still doesn't answer my argument, which is: the 3KG still should have been with their very alive king if jon was born b/f the sack or after -- they should have been with their king as soon as rhaegar died. i don't think it was right for them to be w/lyanna instead of aerys. if you do, that's fine. i just disagree -- but that's a different sort of disagreement -- one based on opinions.


I used 'bold' to show emphasis on the word 'fact', because I had a feeling you would misinterpret me, which you did. Again, when I say fact I am referring to actual facts from the text. Not my assumptions or theories based on these facts.

Example: The duty of the Kingsguard is to protect the king, and the Kingsguard at the ToJ felt they were doing their duty.

There is no fact stating Jon Snow was born before the sack. It was an assumption based on facts. Even if Lyanna was found in a literal bed of blood, although I doubt it, it could still be reasonable to assume that Jon was born a month earlier. Periods of severe bleeding can last for months after childbirth, especially if complications arise.

I simply disagree about the Kingsguard. I choose to accept the facts provided in the text above my personal opinions.

#396 Dragonfish

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:18 PM

But if there was a BABY SWAP, we don't know exactly when Jon was concieved/born. We only have Ned's word for that, and under this theory (which I don't really believe) he would be hiding the truth.


No, it was not Ned who told us how old Jon was, it was the author. George has explicitly said Jon was born around 8 or 9 months before Daenerys, which puts his birth at around the Sack of King's Landing, and his conception a month or so into the war.

Considering it lasted "about" a year, its not impossible to say that Jon was concieved by Ashara at the tournament where Rhagera takes Lyana, and is born 9 months later, when the war is a month or 2 away from ending. Ned could have theoretically fathered a bastard his first month or so at war, and the baby of Rhaegar+Lyanna would have been concieved pretty soon after the torunament as well.


Rhaegar did not take Lyanna at the tourney of Harrenhal. The tourney took place about a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion, according to George.

#397 salt

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:22 PM

No, it was not Ned who told us how old Jon was, it was the author. George has explicitly said Jon was born around 8 or 9 months before Daenerys, which puts his birth at around the Sack of King's Landing, and his conception a month or so into the war.

Rhaegar did not take Lyanna at the tourney of Harrenhal. The tourney took place about a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion, according to George.


My mistake about the toruney, though it doesn't change the theory. Since we don't know how long the war lasted its not impossible that Jon Arryn calling the Banner-Tywin sacks KL was about 9 months. We know Brandon was a womanizer, he may have bedded Ashara at the tournament and a second time later. The timelines are sketchy and a lot can happens in 4 weeks. Like some hot and sweaty Stark-Dayne lovin'.


Actually, do we know what year the tournament at Harrenhall was held?

Edited by salt, 01 July 2012 - 10:24 PM.


#398 Apple Martini

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:27 PM

i'm not making a judgment about them abandoning their duties in the strict sense, as i've now said like 3 times. i'm making a moral judgment about what they should have done, which is obviously going to be my opinion. i have every right to make a moral judgment about what i think the KG should have been doing. i am not saying that they deserted or abandoned in some legally punishable way -- i am saying they are morally culpable. and moral judgments are personal judgments, not legal ones. that's the distinction i am trying to make, but obviously failing miserably at doing.

as you think 1 is enough, i think the fact that 7 exist means that 7 should be with the king unless they are doing something for the king (eg fighting his war), or resting/eating/bathing etc. yes, we don't know what they were thinking--but we do know that the KG is usually with the king, as far as the current novels are concerned, except when one is sent here or there, like to guard a princess. so, no, i don't think they should have been with lyanna--whether they were legally in the clear since one KG doesn't free them of their own duty to the king. yes, they thought they were keeping their vow--but that vow was to rhaegar, unless there's something we don't know about lyanna and aerys--and as rhaegar was not king, it strikes me as a failure to leave the king with 1KG.

and, other guards don't make up for the fact that the kings own guards aren't there. i have considered it. it just doesn't strike me as compelling evidence -- and here's why: if other people can do the job, what is the point of 7 kingsguard? why have 7 at all? because we want several people whose sole job it is to guard the king. it's like saying we don't need more than a couple of secret service, we have some fbi around so the president should be fine. i know you will say but they had a meeting and talked about other people guarding the king -- but a staff meeting is qualitatively different from leaving a king for an extended period of time.


I think it's pretty obvious, from a religious standpoint — and knights are tied into the Faith of the Seven — why there are exactly seven knights and not five or eight or a dozen.

And no offense, but what you think should have happened is kind of moot. So you think they shouldn't have been at the Tower, OK. Fact is that they were and that's what we have to work with.

#399 peterbound

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:29 PM

Holy shit! This fucking tread has inspired a Spin Off? Can't we just keep this nonsense in the RL=J threads? Do we really need two discussing the same batshit crazy nonsense?

#400 summer_stark

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 10:32 PM

I used 'bold' to show emphasis on the word 'fact', because I had a feeling you would misinterpret me, which you did. Again, when I say fact I am referring to actual facts from the text. Not my assumptions or theories based on these facts.

Example: The duty of the Kingsguard is to protect the king, and the Kingsguard at the ToJ felt they were doing their duty.

There is no fact stating Jon Snow was born before the sack. It was an assumption based on facts. Even if Lyanna was found in a literal bed of blood, although I doubt it, it could still be reasonable to assume that Jon was born a month earlier. Periods of severe bleeding can last for months after childbirth, especially if complications arise.

I simply disagree about the Kingsguard. I choose to accept the facts provided in the text above my personal opinions.


yes, and i am choosing to do the same -- since whether or not js is born b/f or a/f the sack is up in the air, we are in agreement that neither of us has the right of it--they are both just theories.

you made two statements, one objective, one subjective. it's objective that their duty is to their king--it's subjective that they carried out that duty. so that is not a fact in the way you are using it. you can use it to prove that they thought they were carrying out their duty, but not to prove whether, objectively, they carried out their duty.

so, we have 2 facts. 1 objective, 1 subjective.

1) objective: their duty was to the king -- which is king aerys while he lived; and

2) subjective: they "believed" they were doing their duty by being in the tower with lyanna.

the second is not indicative of whether they were, in fact, carrying out their duty to the king, aerys, or whether they were carrying out a vow they made to someone they liked better, rhaegar, and carrying out that vow no matter what happened to rhaegar. or whether they were carrying out a duty to their new king, jon targaryen (which is why i pointed out that there is some time that they are not guarding their living king aerys in favor of following dead prince rhaegar's orders).

it's not a barometer of whether or not they were, in fact, carrying out their duty to their king. i believe that they were not doing their duty. you believe, based on those facts, that they were. my theory based on those two facts differs from your theory, based on those facts.

so, unless i'm mistaken, we're both theorizing based on facts. you did not just point to the text only -- you pointed to a couple of facts, this time, and then extrapolated from them -- you may not think that you did that, but you did, and so did i.

Edited by summer_stark, 01 July 2012 - 10:46 PM.