So was most of the men personally raised by the Starks cavlery

[Tarellen]

So a 1/4 of the men at winterfell were Calvary but from the known figures only 3/23 karstark men were Calvary and most likely 1/7 Bolton men were calvery. The other northern houses at winterfell seem to be less rich and powerful then those two houses so most likely there forces had a worse calvery to infantry ratio. So it's to be the bulk of the Calvary were stark men personally raised by the Starks. So that leads me to the conclusion that most stark men are Calvary and its like that because the Starks spend all of there retaining money on Calvary from there estate. And that's why it seems like the Starks have so few men personally because Calvary is more expensive to raise then infantry. Does this make sense? What do you guys think?

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

So a 1/4 of the men at winterfell were Calvary but from the known figures only 3/23 karstark men were Calvary and most likely 1/7 Bolton men were calvery. The other northern houses at winterfell seem to be less rich and powerful then those two houses so most likely there forces had a worse calvery to infantry ratio. So it's to be the bulk of the Calvary were stark men personally raised by the Starks. So that leads me to the conclusion that most stark men are Calvary and its like that because the Starks spend all of there retaining money on Calvary from there estate. And that's why it seems like the Starks have so few men personally because Calvary is more expensive to raise then infantry. Does this make sense? What do you guys think?

Where do you get the idea that only 1/7 Bolton men were cavalry?

[Tarellen]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Where do you get the idea that only 1/7 Bolton men were cavalry?

I'm guessing that the Boltons brought 3500 to winterfell and 500 of that was Calvary. So 1/7. Or were my numbers wrong?

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

I'm guessing that the Boltons brought 3500 to winterfell and 500 of that was Calvary. So 1/7. Or were my numbers wrong?

The Boltons are one of the most militarily powerful Northern Houses, chief rivals of the Starks for thousands of years. They will have a cavalry ratio at least as high as the average for the North. Probably higher than the average, to compensate for the poorer Houses who have lower than the average ratio. The North as a whole brought around 4500 cavalry out of 19500 men. So pretty much a ratio of 1/4. The Boltons will have at least that ratio.

As for actual numbers: The Boltons didn't bring 3500 men to Winterfell. They likely brought around 2500. And probably around 600-700 or so cavalry, to compensate for Houses like the Karstarks, Mormonts etc who brought a very low horse ratio.

As for the Starks themselves - they likely have a very strong cavalry ratio - possibly as high as 1/3. So if they also brought 2500 men their cavalry could have been as high as 800 or thereabouts.

[Tarellen]

15 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Boltons are one of the most militarily powerful Northern Houses, chief rivals of the Starks for thousands of years. They will have a cavalry ratio at least as high as the average for the North. Probably higher than the average, to compensate for the poorer Houses who have lower than the average ratio. The North as a whole brought around 4500 cavalry out of 19500 men. So pretty much a ratio of 1/4. The Boltons will have at least that ratio.

As for actual numbers: The Boltons didn't bring 3500 men to Winterfell. They likely brought around 2500. And probably around 600-700 or so cavalry, to compensate for Houses like the Karstarks, Mormonts etc who brought a very low horse ratio.

As for the Starks themselves - they likely have a very strong cavalry ratio - possibly as high as 1/3. So if they also brought 2500 men their cavalry could have been as high as 800 or thereabouts.

Okay so the army that roose brought to the twins had some karstark elements and roose lost barley any of his own men so maybe 3000 Bolton men were brought to winterfell. Of that 500 were probley Calvary since it's unlikely that the karstark Calvary were with roose. Also remember that roose held back a crack garrison of 600 calvery at the dreadfort so it's likely that your ratio is right just not for the men at winterfell. Also where is the stark infantry in Robb's host then? Can't it be possible that Starks have mostly Calvary summoned by them personally at winterfell? 

[dariopatke]

11 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

 Also where is the stark infantry in Robb's host then? Can't it be possible that Starks have mostly Calvary summoned by them personally at winterfell? 

With Roose. Yes, very likely, I dont buy that Boltons are stronger than Starks, Manderlys probably, but not Boltons.

You seem to forget 600 heavy cavalry that stayed in Dreadfort with Ramsay so they have 1100 horsemen at least.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Tarellen said:

Okay so the army that roose brought to the twins had some karstark elements and roose lost barley any of his own men so maybe 3000 Bolton men were brought to winterfell. Of that 500 were probley Calvary since it's unlikely that the karstark Calvary were with roose. Also remember that roose held back a crack garrison of 600 calvery at the dreadfort so it's likely that your ratio is right just not for the men at winterfell. Also where is the stark infantry in Robb's host then? Can't it be possible that Starks have mostly Calvary summoned by them personally at winterfell? 

No, the Bolton cavalry ratio of around 1/4 is essential for the forces they brought to Winterfell, else the 3000 heavy horse out of 12000 men cannot plausibly be explained, especially given the known low ratio of Karstark horse, and the highly likely low ratio of Mormont, Mountain Clans and other poorer House's cavalry. The Boltons had to bring at least 1/4 cavalry as it is implausible for the Starks to have a cavalry ratio of much more than 1/3 themselves.

As for the crack 600 troops at the Dreadfort - most of whom seems to have been horse - those are on top of the cavalry Roose brought to Winterfell. What that means is that the Boltons likely have sufficient additional infantry to balance out the reserve cavalry they kept at the Dreadfort.

I would say the Boltons can raise at least 4000 men in total, of which say 2500-2800 went to Winterfell (including around 600-700 horse). They then had another 600 elite troops back at the Dreadfort, of which a high proportion (or perhaps all) were cavalry, taking their total cavalry number to around 1000-1200. Additionally they would have lesser quality infantry troops remaining back in the Dreadfort lands to bring their overall cavalry ratio down to around 1/4.

Only the very wealthiest Houses have a cavalry ratio above 1/4. Even the Freys only achieved 1000 knights out of 4000 men, and they are possibly the wealthiest Riverland vassal House. So, since it is very difficult to see how the Boltons brought fewer than 600 heavy horse to Winterfell, it depends on what portion of the 600 Dreadfort veterans were mounted to determine the total Bolton cavalry numbers. If the full 600 were cavalry, then the Bolton heavy cavalry numbers appear to be at least 1200. Which would put their total strength at around 4 times that number, which is around 4800.

In short, to me House Bolton ranges between 1000-1200 cavalry, and between 4000-4800 total manpower.

[Tarellen]

5 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

With Roose. Yes, very likely, I dont buy that Boltons are stronger than Starks, Manderlys probably, but not Boltons.

You seem to forget 600 heavy cavalry that stayed in Dreadfort with Ramsay so they have 1100 horsemen at least.

I counted them for the total number of Bolton troops not for the men brought to winterfell. 

 

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No, the Bolton cavalry ratio of around 1/4 is essential for the forces they brought to Winterfell, else the 3000 heavy horse out of 12000 men cannot plausibly be explained, especially given the known low ratio of Karstark horse, and the highly likely low ratio of Mormont, Mountain Clans and other poorer House's cavalry. The Boltons had to bring at least 1/4 cavalry as it is implausible for the Starks to have a cavalry ratio of much more than 1/3 themselves.

As for the crack 600 troops at the Dreadfort - most of whom seems to have been horse - those are on top of the cavalry Roose brought to Winterfell. What that means is that the Boltons likely have sufficient additional infantry to balance out the reserve cavalry they kept at the Dreadfort.

I would say the Boltons can raise at least 4000 men in total, of which say 2500-2800 went to Winterfell (including around 600-700 horse). They then had another 600 elite troops back at the Dreadfort, of which a high proportion (or perhaps all) were cavalry, taking their total cavalry number to around 1000-1200. Additionally they would have lesser quality infantry troops remaining back in the Dreadfort lands to bring their overall cavalry ratio down to around 1/4.

Only the very wealthiest Houses have a cavalry ratio above 1/4. Even the Freys only achieved 1000 knights out of 4000 men, and they are possibly the wealthiest Riverland vassal House. So, since it is very difficult to see how the Boltons brought fewer than 600 heavy horse to Winterfell, it depends on what portion of the 600 Dreadfort veterans were mounted to determine the total Bolton cavalry numbers. If the full 600 were cavalry, then the Bolton heavy cavalry numbers appear to be at least 1200. Which would put their total strength at around 4 times that number, which is around 4800.

In short, to me House Bolton ranges between 1000-1200 cavalry, and between 4000-4800 total manpower.

Or the Starks supplied most of the cavalry to make up for there vassles lack of it. 

Yes the 600 were on top of what was brought to winterfell and your ratio and number does make sense for the Entire Bolton army but roose held back remember. So the Bolton men at winterfell were mostly infantry and less then the 1/4 ratio. So the Starks had to supply most of there armies Calvary 

[Free Northman Reborn]

I am not aware of any House that fields even close to a 1/2 heavy cavalry ratio. Even Tywins Westerland host only had about 10000 total cavalry out of 35000 men. That is less than 1/3. Closer to 1/3.5. It is not plausible for the Starks to exceed a ratio of around 1/3. 

So something like:

Stark 800/2400

Bolton 700/2500

Karstark 300/2300

Umber 450/1800

Remainder 750/3000

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Regarding the Starks' personal contribution to the 12000 men, we can assume that they would have contributed by far the greater part of their personal strength to the host, given the urgency and given that their men were the most readily available. So a contribution in the 80% range seems quite plausible in their case. Working back, we know that they raise 600 men from what remains behind, so 2400 or so as a contribution to Robb's host seems quite plausible, leaving the 600 as 20% of their total strength of around 3000.

[Tarellen]

On July 7, 2016 at 6:49 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

I am not aware of any House that fields even close to a 1/2 heavy cavalry ratio. Even Tywins Westerland host only had about 10000 total cavalry out of 35000 men. That is less than 1/3. Closer to 1/3.5. It is not plausible for the Starks to exceed a ratio of around 1/3. 

So something like:

Stark 800/2400

Bolton 700/2500

Karstark 300/2300

Umber 450/1800

Remainder 750/3000

 

Maybe in exchange for not having to raise infantry the Starks tenants pay more in rent? Also why do the umbers have more cavlery then the karstarks? Also how did karstark raise so much of there strength so quickly? Also the Bolton contribution sould be bigger since I don't think there was much karstark infantry left by the red wedding. Also how did the remaining northern houses have a better ratio then the karstarks?

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Tarellen said:

Maybe in exchange for not having to raise infantry the Starks tenants pay more in rent? Also why do the umbers have more cavlery then the karstarks? Also how did karstark raise so much of there strength so quickly? Also the Bolton contribution sould be bigger since I don't think there was much karstark infantry left by the red wedding. Also how did the remaining northern houses have a better ratio then the karstarks?

Ah, I like these questions. I have done some thinking on the 12000 men, and I have come up with a breakdown which I will post below. But first regarding the Karstarks. We don't know why their cavalry ratio is so low. But that it is far lower than the average is undeniable, considering that the combined host raised 25% heavy cavalry.

To me a plausible breakdown of the 12000 could look something like this:

House   Total men with Robb   Cavalry with Robb   Cavalry ratio     Total strength   % sent with Robb   Stark 2400 800 33%   3000 80% Bolton 2500 700 28%   4000 63% Karstark 2300 300 13%   2800 82% Umber 1600 400 25%   2500 64% Glover 600 150 25%   1000 60% Tallhart 600 150 25%   1000 60% Hornwood 600 150 25%   1000 60% Cerwyn 600 150 25%   1000 60% Mormont 500 100 20%   1000 50% Clans 500 100 20%   3500 14%   12200   3000       20900   58%

Now obviously the numbers can be reallocated considerably between the various Houses, but the logic I used is as follows:

We know that House Karstark brought 2300. We also know that House Bolton had the majority of the 4000 men that marched back up the Neck in Dance, and that they appear to have been the largest contributor to the Stark host.

We also know that House Stark would have surely contributed the highest percentage of their total strength to the host, given that it was assembling at their home castle and Robb was anxious to rescue his father. So since House Stark still had 600 men left after Robb left, I think it likely that these 600 men represented at most 20% of the total Stark strength. Meaning they allocated 80% of their strength to the original host.

Lastly the prominence of House Umber in the story and in the war dynamic suggests that they are a significant contributor to Robb's host as well. There is simply not room in the 12000 to give them more than 2000 men, however, so I gave them 1600 men in Robb's host, with another 800 back home split between Hother and Mors in Dance.

After that, it is simply a case of allocating the remaining 5000 or so men of the 12000 as logically as possible among the remaining Houses gathered at Winterfell.

[Tarellen]

21 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ah, I like these questions. I have done some thinking on the 12000 men, and I have come up with a breakdown which I will post below. But first regarding the Karstarks. We don't know why their cavalry ratio is so low. But that it is far lower than the average is undeniable, considering that the combined host raised 25% heavy cavalry.

To me a plausible breakdown of the 12000 could look something like this:

House   Total men with Robb   Cavalry with Robb   Cavalry ratio     Total strength   % sent with Robb   Stark 2400 800 33%   3000 80% Bolton 2500 700 28%   4000 63% Karstark 2300 300 13%   2800 82% Umber 1600 400 25%   2500 64% Glover 600 150 25%   1000 60% Tallhart 600 150 25%   1000 60% Hornwood 600 150 25%   1000 60% Cerwyn 600 150 25%   1000 60% Mormont 500 100 20%   1000 50% Clans 500 100 20%   3500 14%   12200   3000       20900   58%

Now obviously the numbers can be reallocated considerably between the various Houses, but the logic I used is as follows:

We know that House Karstark brought 2300. We also know that House Bolton had the majority of the 4000 men that marched back up the Neck in Dance, and that they appear to have been the largest contributor to the Stark host.

We also know that House Stark would have surely contributed the highest percentage of their total strength to the host, given that it was assembling at their home castle and Robb was anxious to rescue his father. So since House Stark still had 600 men left after Robb left, I think it likely that these 600 men represented at most 20% of the total Stark strength. Meaning they allocated 80% of their strength to the original host.

Lastly the prominence of House Umber in the story and in the war dynamic suggests that they are a significant contributor to Robb's host as well. There is simply not room in the 12000 to give them more than 2000 men, however, so I gave them 1600 men in Robb's host, with another 800 back home split between Hother and Mors in Dance.

After that, it is simply a case of allocating the remaining 5000 or so men of the 12000 as logically as possible among the remaining Houses gathered at Winterfell.

I thought there was more Bolton troops brought to winterfell since there were only Bolton and karstark troops at the red wedding and the karstarks took heavy losses. So the Bolton contingent must be at least 3000 men strong. Also how do some of the poorer houses like glover and the umbers at least compared to the karstarks maintain the average ratio? Also how did karstark raise so much of his strength so quickly?

[Tarellen]

Also does anyone have examples of stark infantry?

[Lord Lannister]

I think people put way too much stock into the few stated numbers we have. Most is left unstated and subject to character POV interpretations. But as for House Stark having more cavalry, there's a very simple answer. Horses are expensive to raise, equip, train and feed. It makes perfect sense that House Stark would be better suited to do so than some of the lesser Houses.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I think people put way too much stock into the few stated numbers we have. Most is left unstated and subject to character POV interpretations. But as for House Stark having more cavalry, there's a very simple answer. Horses are expensive to raise, equip, train and feed. It makes perfect sense that House Stark would be better suited to do so than some of the lesser Houses.

I am the first to suggests that George's numbers back in GoT - particularly related to the 12k men gathered at Winterfell - might not have been as well thought out as it would have been later in the series. I wonder if he actually went and split it between the various Houses that contributed to Robb's host, like we are trying to do.

But given the numbers he used, I believe that the vast majority of the 12k came from Houses Stark, Bolton, Karstark and Umber.

One other thing which might change these ratios slightly, is that Robb departed because he could wait no longer. He did not depart because all the men had arrived.  So it might well be that additional stragglers from the northernmost Houses caught up to Robb's host on the way down to Moat Cailin, which would mean that the total contribution from the northernmost Houses eventually exceeded the original 12k.

This in turn would mean that the contribution of the southernmost Houses would decrease, thus leaving more men back home amongst these Houses. Certainly, we haven't heard any hints of any of the Houses in the southern half of the North being down to old men and boys, or having had their harvests suffer due to the men committed to the War effort.

It is quite conceivable that the trend we see with the Dustins, Ryswells and Manderlys was prevalent among most of the southerly Houses, which is that they committed much smaller percentages of their potential to Robb's host than the more northerly Houses did.

 

[Adam Yozza]

I have thought about the 12,000 men thing, and I'm wondering if that number was before the Karstark's added their strength. I mean, the Karstark's were only just arriving when Luwin told Bran how many men had assembled, so it wasn't like they had counted the extra men already.

This tends to be what I use when working out the numbers present in Winterfell; it doesn't really work any other way without weakening other house's to a point that seems almost too weak, although Free Northman Reborn's theory does make sense too.

But the numbers I always imagined are 2,500 Stark's (800 horse); 2,500 Bolton's (800 horse); 1700 Umber's (400 horse); 1200 each for Cerwyn (400 horse) and Hornwood (200 horse); 800 Mormonts (100 horse) and the same for Glover and Tallhart with the Clans providing 500 foot troops. That adds to about 12k men with nearly 2900 cav.

If we then add 2300 Karstark's (300 h); 1500 Manderly's (500 h); 1,000 Dustin's (200 h); 800 Flint's from Flints Finger (200 h) and 500 from Widows Watch (100 h); 1400 Ryswell's (400 h) that brings the total up to 19,500 men at Moat Cailin including 4600 horse, if my maths is right.

I don't know if this is right or not, but its what I use to keep the numbers straight in my head.

[Free Northman Reborn]

34 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I have thought about the 12,000 men thing, and I'm wondering if that number was before the Karstark's added their strength. I mean, the Karstark's were only just arriving when Luwin told Bran how many men had assembled, so it wasn't like they had counted the extra men already.

This tends to be what I use when working out the numbers present in Winterfell; it doesn't really work any other way without weakening other house's to a point that seems almost too weak, although Free Northman Reborn's theory does make sense too.

But the numbers I always imagined are 2,500 Stark's (800 horse); 2,500 Bolton's (800 horse); 1700 Umber's (400 horse); 1200 each for Cerwyn (400 horse) and Hornwood (200 horse); 800 Mormonts (100 horse) and the same for Glover and Tallhart with the Clans providing 500 foot troops. That adds to about 12k men with nearly 2900 cav.

If we then add 2300 Karstark's (300 h); 1500 Manderly's (500 h); 1,000 Dustin's (200 h); 800 Flint's from Flints Finger (200 h) and 500 from Widows Watch (100 h); 1400 Ryswell's (400 h) that brings the total up to 19,500 men at Moat Cailin including 4600 horse, if my maths is right.

I don't know if this is right or not, but its what I use to keep the numbers straight in my head.

I like the analysis you went through, and I'm glad I'm not the only one obsessing about this stuff.

However, I'm pretty sure the 2300 Karstarks are noted by Bran and Luwin BEFORE Luwin states that there are 12k men in total. This is different from the Manderly arrival at Moat Cailin, where Catelyn knows about the Manderly's 1500 men, but Robb states he has 18000 men before he has a chance to take stock of the Manderlys.

It seems the 12k at Winterfell included the Karstarks, which is difficult to understand, but is the way Martin wrote it nevertheless.

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I like the analysis you went through, and I'm glad I'm not the only one obsessing about this stuff.

However, I'm pretty sure the 2300 Karstarks are noted by Bran and Luwin BEFORE Luwin states that there are 12k men in total. This is different from the Manderly arrival at Moat Cailin, where Catelyn knows about the Manderly's 1500 men, but Robb states he has 18000 men before he has a chance to take stock of the Manderlys.

It seems the 12k at Winterfell included the Karstarks, which is difficult to understand, but is the way Martin wrote it nevertheless.

You are right about the Karstark's being noted before Luwin states how many men Robb has. I guess Martin just didn't plan the numbers very well in this regard. But I'll probably use the theory I explained as head canon to explain the discrepancy.

[Tarellen]

On July 14, 2016 at 3:36 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

I am the first to suggests that George's numbers back in GoT - particularly related to the 12k men gathered at Winterfell - might not have been as well thought out as it would have been later in the series. I wonder if he actually went and split it between the various Houses that contributed to Robb's host, like we are trying to do.

But given the numbers he used, I believe that the vast majority of the 12k came from Houses Stark, Bolton, Karstark and Umber.

One other thing which might change these ratios slightly, is that Robb departed because he could wait no longer. He did not depart because all the men had arrived.  So it might well be that additional stragglers from the northernmost Houses caught up to Robb's host on the way down to Moat Cailin, which would mean that the total contribution from the northernmost Houses eventually exceeded the original 12k.

This in turn would mean that the contribution of the southernmost Houses would decrease, thus leaving more men back home amongst these Houses. Certainly, we haven't heard any hints of any of the Houses in the southern half of the North being down to old men and boys, or having had their harvests suffer due to the men committed to the War effort.

It is quite conceivable that the trend we see with the Dustins, Ryswells and Manderlys was prevalent among most of the southerly Houses, which is that they committed much smaller percentages of their potential to Robb's host than the more northerly Houses did.

 

Maybe the stark infantry were collected as Robb went south while only the Calvary was at winterfell. Also how powerful are the mandrelys if I'm right and the Starks had mostly heavy Calvary at winterfell and the mandrelys still have more then them?