Behind Robert's Rebellion - Tywin's Toil

[Boarsbane]

On Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 10:06 AM, devilish said:

We know that the Martells were threatened by Aerys to join the war, else Elia would suffer. Strangely enough, Tywin was never threatened. Why would be the case? The Lannisters could raise more troops then the Martells. Unlike the Martells who wanted Aegon to one day be king, the Lannisters had no interest in the Targeryan dynasty at all. That ship sailed long ago when Rhaegar married Elia. So what stopped Aerys from threatening Tywin with Jamie in the same way he did to Doran with Elia?  

We all know that prior to Robert’s rebellion the relationship between the king and the crown prince was already strained.  There were suspicions that Rhaegar was going to use the tournament of Harrenhal as a pretext to convince lords to turn against his father, hence why Aerys made sure he went to Harrenhal himself. We also know that before the battle of the trident Rhaegar told Jamie that he intended to sort this problem after his victory at the trident. We can assume that Tywin learnt about that through Jamie. Rhaegar’s treachery was so deep that 2 KG ie the Sword of the morning and the white bull prefered guarding the crown prince lover then their own king.

However lets forget about Tywin for a minute and lets focus on the battle of the trident. Rhaegar’s army at the battle of the trident was 40k strong. Robert’s army was slightly smaller. The latter compensated to that by fighting on home turf + they were battle hardened.

If Rhaegar won the battle at the trident then we can still assume that he would have suffered heavy casualties. A quarter of his army would probably end up killed with another quarter being injured. The Rebels won’t bend the knee immediately. As said the Riverlands is rebel’s turf and its renowned for its castles. Rhaegar will have to besiege those castles and force the rebels to surrender.

Now back to Tywin. The old lion invaded with an army of 12k. The Westerlands can raise far more troops than that, so we can assume that Tywin could rely on a 20k army at a blink of an eye if he wanted. Walder’s son is Tywin’s brother in law and the fact that the two stayed out of the war is suspicious. The Freys could raise a further 4k if needed.  Assuming that the two were working together then we can conclude that Tywin could easily reach the Riverlands with a 24k army, all fresh for the fight ahead.That can easily surprise and break Rhaegar's depleted army.

So what was Tywin’s alternative plan?

I believe that Aerys and Tywin had already cooked a plan on how to proceed after Rhaegar has won. Tywin’s army would surprise the tired loyalist army, breaking the Crown prince army’s back before he could set the ball rolling for his revolt. The old lion would then bring Rhaegar in chains alongside Robert, Ned and co and he would use his son as witness of Rhaegar’s treachery towards the rightful king of Westeros.

In exchange, Aerys would release Jamie from the KG, he would allow the new crown prince Viserys to marry Cersei and he would probably give the Riverlands to Walder Frey. Tywin would be restored as hand of the king and the two would return good buddies as they were before.

That would explain why Aerys (who was renowned for his paranoia) allowed Jamie to be so close to him and was so easily swayed to open KL gates to Tywin. The two had been planning stuff together and there was no reason for the mad king to believe that his friend would want to harm him.

 

 

 

Tywin and Aerys despised each other, there was no trust between them, they'd never be able to work together for something like this. A more likely explanation for Aerys not forcing Tywin to help is he didn't believe he needed him, they outnumbered the rebels it seems and if he brought Tywin into it people would start whispering how Tywin won the war for him and we know how he hates to be seen as reliant on or inferior to Tywin. Tywin would of been seen as a resort, something he'd call on after a defeat like the Trident when he had no other choice, clearly Tywin had other plans though.

[DarkBastard]

On 5/27/2017 at 2:01 AM, Prof. Cecily said:

Why? Rhaegar is married to the Dornish princess Elia. And Rhaegar has a brother Cersei could marry. There's also  a sister of Rhaegar's for a male Lannister to wed.

I'm very curious about why you think Lyanna, who is simply a prince's fancy, would be of any importance to Lord Tywin.

Because she was carrying Rhaegar's child, and she was Robert's obsession.  

And I don't think he was willing to remove Rhaegar for Viserys to ascend...but that would always remain a remote option on if absolutely necessary.  He already had the Prince's trust, he would use that.  I think it was also a matter of pride (at least partly) due to the snub from Aerys when he previously proposed the betrothal to Cersei.  Tywin is a prideful and vengeful character at heart, and he had things set up for either outcome of the war.  He obviously will do anything to protect his interests, why not remove all contenders, and blame...anyone else.

If he left Lyanna alive, and Robert won the rebellion...Robert could still take her as his wife.  She had to die for his plan to work.

Maybe I missed it in the texts, but has anyone read how it was reported that Lyanna was "abducted and raped"?  An important detail, to be sure.

DB

[Prof. Cecily]

18 minutes ago, DarkBastard said:

Because she was carrying Rhaegar's child, and she was Robert's obsession.  

And I don't think he was willing to remove Rhaegar for Viserys to ascend...but that would always remain a remote option on if absolutely necessary.  He already had the Prince's trust, he would use that.  I think it was also a matter of pride (at least partly) due to the snub from Aerys when he previously proposed the betrothal to Cersei.  Tywin is a prideful and vengeful character at heart, and he had things set up for either outcome of the war.  He obviously will do anything to protect his interests, why not remove all contenders, and blame...anyone else.

If he left Lyanna alive, and Robert won the rebellion...Robert could still take her as his wife.  She had to die for his plan to work.

Maybe I missed it in the texts, but has anyone read how it was reported that Lyanna was "abducted and raped"?  An important detail, to be sure.

DB

Yes, Lyanna is carrying a child. A bastard, as far as we know. 

How is this bastard a threat?

 

Do you really think Robert would have married a Lyanna with a Targ baby in her arms?

Would Lyanna consent to such a marriage?

[SeaWitch]

3 minutes ago, Prof. Cecily said:

Yes, Lyanna is carrying a child. A bastard, as far as we know. 

How is this bastard a threat?

 

Do you really think Robert would have married a Lyanna with a Targ baby in her arms?

Would Lyanna consent to such a marriage?

'Consent' is a bit of a nebulous concept.  Find herself yoked to a man who killed her lover, who expects her to be grateful for her rescue, and probably harps on about how magnanimous he was to take her, even soiled and dishonoured...  

I wouldn't give a copper for the baby's chances of survival, no.  Either a nice cup of tea takes on a really sinister meaning beforehand, or later, there's 'stillbirth' or 'dead of a fever'.

Actually, I wouldn't give much for Lyanna's chances.  I suspect she'd die of 'grief' or 'melancholy' fairly swiftly, before a legitimate heir could happen, and someone else would step in. (*coughcerseicough*) 

[DarkBastard]

A bastard, yes.  But if Rhaegar won against Robert, and Tywin was able to remove Elia and her children...King Rhaegar could marry Lyanna and legitimize the child.  It was something that could happen, and therefore Tywin would deal with it to secure his family's future.  Why let Lyanna live?  Why let another child muddy the waters, and potentially challenge for the crown later?

He would not leave anything to chance, he would have planned to eliminate them both...and their children.

[Prof. Cecily]

2 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

'Consent' is a bit of a nebulous concept.  Find herself yoked to a man who killed her lover, who expects her to be grateful for her rescue, and probably harps on about how magnanimous he was to take her, even soiled and dishonoured...  

I wouldn't give a copper for the baby's chances of survival, no.  Either a nice cup of tea takes on a really sinister meaning beforehand, or later, there's 'stillbirth' or 'dead of a fever'.

Actually, I wouldn't give much for Lyanna's chances.  I suspect she'd die of 'grief' or 'melancholy' fairly swiftly, before a legitimate heir could happen, and someone else would step in. (*coughcerseicough*) 

Hmmm, yes, childhood fevers.

And the melancholy.

And soothing teas prescribed by GM Pycelle.

Cersei-

I'm reminded of that sad little monologue of Kevan Lannister's

Quote

 

 

Ser Kevan remembered the girl she once had been, so full of life and mischief. And when she'd flowered, ahhhh … had there ever been a maid so sweet to look upon? If Aerys had agreed to marry her to Rhaegar, how many deaths might have been avoided? Cersei could have given the prince the sons he wanted, lions with purple eyes and silver manes … and with such a wife, Rhaegar might never have looked twice at Lyanna Stark. The northern girl had a wild beauty, as he recalled, though however bright a torch might burn it could never match the rising sun.

But it did no good to brood on lost battles and roads not taken.

 

A Dance with Dragons - Epilogue

 

2 hours ago, DarkBastard said:

A bastard, yes.  But if Rhaegar won against Robert, and Tywin was able to remove Elia and her children...King Rhaegar could marry Lyanna and legitimize the child.  It was something that could happen, and therefore Tywin would deal with it to secure his family's future.  Why let Lyanna live?  Why let another child muddy the waters, and potentially challenge for the crown later?

He would not leave anything to chance, he would have planned to eliminate them both...and their children.

Perhaps I've misunderstood you- are you saying Rhaegar would consent to the murder of his queen and his heirs? And also his mistress and his bastard?

Because Tywin wants him to marry Cersei?

The fact is, IIRC, Tywin doesn't display this type of behaviour with Robert's bastards, though his daughter's incestuous relation with her brother has put the Lannister grasp on the throne in very real danger.

I think your idea doesn't match the characters in ASoIaF.

 

 

[DarkBastard]

No, I'm saying Tywin is plotting behind Rhaegar's back to eliminate them, as stated previously.  Being a "friend" to him all the while plotting to destroy his offspring, and blame another.

Either way, Lyanna had to die.  That is the point.  If she was allowed to live, in either scenario, House Lannister wouldn't ascend.  That's the point of all this, that Tywin had her killed (or attempted to)...that's the wound to Ned that still bleeds.

[Jasta11]

On 5/27/2017 at 10:49 AM, Boarsbane said:

Tywin and Aerys despised each other, there was no trust between them, they'd never be able to work together for something like this. A more likely explanation for Aerys not forcing Tywin to help is he didn't believe he needed him, they outnumbered the rebels it seems and if he brought Tywin into it people would start whispering how Tywin won the war for him and we know how he hates to be seen as reliant on or inferior to Tywin. Tywin would of been seen as a resort, something he'd call on after a defeat like the Trident when he had no other choice, clearly Tywin had other plans though.

Yeah, I'm really not sold on such a plan either. These two cordially loathed each other, and while I could see Tywin looking past that in the name of realpolitik, Aerys was too far gone to hatch such complicated schemes and overlook his intense hatred and jealousy of Tywin, he certainly wouldn't trust him as the linchpin of his entire strategy of war. 

Plus how would this make Aerys believe that Tywin's there to save him in this scenario? If the plan was for him to fall upon a tired rebel army with 24k, why is suddenly knocking at the doors of King's Landing with 12k? 

There's no need to add complexity to the situation. Tywin was bidding his time until he could join the winning side, which after the Trident was clearly the rebels. It worked well for him.