Anyone else get the feeling that Dany won't arrive in Westeros at 100%?

[Old-Growth]

I have been saying this for a while. I think that Dany and her story line is a great big red herring. I don't think that she will ever make it to Westeros.

Take that one up with GRRM. There is an SSM to the effect that she is going to Westeros with the dragons. That has been quoted several times in the forum, including by me once before to you. Yet you ignore this: why?

[Quiet Isle]

It's certain that Winds is going to open with a huge battle at Merreen with the soldiers inside the city, the Iron fleet and the surrounding slave armies/mercenaries. Even with the dragons, there's bound to be plenty of casualties on both sides. There is the possibility that the Dothraki she meets at the end of Dance could join up with her, but I personally find this unlikely.

So there will be a large exodus from Esos to Westeros with Dany's soldiers (and maybe even the older people she swears to protect) and there's the possibility of plague/sickness because the last Barristan chapter in Dance showed the slaver armies flinging infected bodies over the walls.

Now, in the newest chapter released (as well as in Storm) the real krakens are brought up again, quote: "And krakens off the Broken Arm, pulling under crippled galleys," said Valena."

So we'll have thousands of ironborn, soldiers, and weaker people (if Dany still is a good queen to all) crossing the narrow sea with the very likely possibility that a significant portion of that fleet will be drowned by underwater sea beasts- the Broken arm is on the eastern tip of Dorne so it seems a decent spot for such an event to go down. Plus GRRM has written amazing naval stuff in past books and he's teased the kraken thing for a while now- it's bound to happen.

I'm not saying that there won't be supporters for Dany once she arrives- Doran and the fifty thousand men will certainly bend the knee for her, and yes, the dragons will command some degree of respect, but just think about if Dany arrived on the Westeros scene as an underdog with a small infantry force and 3 dragons of questionable behavior and loyalty (who knows how well the hellhorn will work?).

Nothing's for certain, to all those folks rooting for Dany out there- I would brace for some disappointment (just like anyone else reading this series should).

why would Dorne bend the knee to her? they didn't before when the targs came with dragons.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

"The Tattered Prince and the Windblown- The Tattered Prince's help is, of course, conditional thanks to Barristan's promise. That condition being Pentos. The same Pentos where Daenerys' main benefactor and the reason she has dragons lives. She has to let down one of the two (I think it will be the Tattered Prince, as Barristan will be alive to ratify the promise he made). That will have dire consequences."

Once she hears what Tyrion has to say about Magister Illyrio and Aegon, if she goes to Pentos, the Magister is a dead man.

Why?

[Ser Lepus]

Why?

Because he was using her as a pawn in his game and his real candidate for king was Aegon. He wanted Viserys and her either to die in the Dothraki Sea or to die while invading Westeros, softening it for Aegon and the GC.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

Because he was using her as a pawn in his game and his real candidate for king was Aegon. He wanted Viserys and her either to die in the Dothraki Sea or to die while invading Westeros, softening it for Aegon and the GC.

He said as much to Tyrion did he?

[Ser Lepus]

He said as much to Tyrion did he?

It should be as evident for Tyrion and Dany as it is for us. Aegon gets protection, training and the Golden Company. Dany and Vyseris are left to wander the Free Cities for years and then handed to the dothraki.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Me thibnk s that might be a smaller problem for dany.. that aegon nearly unifies th e realm without her dragons

I seem to be in the minority when I argue that Daenerys is far less strong than people perceive her to be.

Let's view her army and potential allies.

Khal Jhaqo and his (20,000?) men. As yet uncommitted to Daenerys, an impatient army made up entirely of cavalry (hard to maintain in the winter) under a man whose loyalty I imagine will be questionable. Not a huge advantage.

The Unsullied- I'll grant you this lot. That said, their numbers may be thinned fighting for Meereen.

The Tattered Prince and the Windblown- The Tattered Prince's help is, of course, conditional thanks to Barristan's promise. That condition being Pentos. The same Pentos where Daenerys' main benefactor and the reason she has dragons lives. She has to let down one of the two (I think it will be the Tattered Prince, as Barristan will be alive to ratify the promise he made). That will have dire consequences.

Dorne- Angry Gerris Drinkwater says hi.

Barristan- Her most qualified military mind is a dead man walking.

Tyrion, Brown Ben Plumm and Jorah- Three men whose minds are far too preoccupied to be loyal. They may be a great help, they may be a greater hindrance. Jeor's dying words may play a part.

Euron (by proxy Victarion)- As Apple said, an experienced naval commander like Victarion lost a number of his ships on the voyage, meaning that any attempt for Dany to travel by sea will be fraught with danger (dromond Aurane Waters shaped danger amongst others). That is, of course, requiring us to work under the concept that Victarion will be completely helpful upon arriving in Meereen. I personally can't see him getting on particularly well with the other commanders, or being sympathetic to the needs of the freed slaves and such. He also has the horn.

Not to mention that his help is somewhat conditional on Euron, who, if he can't get Daenerys to agree to marry him, will happily fuck her over quicker than you demand your dragons back. The Gods know what game Euron is playing. I personally think the guy knows how to kill a dragon, if the horn is legit he knows how to control a dragon, and he is a sadistic mother who will care little for the wishes of others.

Aegon- Jon Con and Aegon may very well have Dorne sewn up by the time Daenerys comes. Daenerys may have to march to their tune upon arrival.

The Dragons- Incredibly volatile and as yet untested in warfare dragons.

The Yunkai don't realise they've lost the Battle of Meereen yet. Daenerys doesn't realise she's all but lost the battle for Westeros already.

not to mention her whole army in unprepared for WINTER IN WESTEROS

[Roza Ahai]

It should be as evident for Tyrion and Dany as it is for us. Aegon gets protection, training and the Golden Company. Dany and Vyseris are left to wander the Free Cities for years and then handed to the dothraki.

But he have given her precious dragon eggs. No eggs, no dragons

[Roza Ahai]

And all this building up of Dany and her dragons would be for nothing :/

Just to add more havoc to Westeros.

[Old-Growth]

Why?

She will think herself betrayed by Magister Illyrio. Why was she not told about Aegon? She was married off to Khal Drogo just to get an army---used, exploited---and the Magister expected her to die in the Dothraki Sea. We have seen her "dragon's temper" in action: it will flare up most certainly in this case. Also, Ser Barristan will have only bad things to say about Varys; he has already offered such sentiments. Learning that the Magister is in cahoots with Varys will only stoke the fires.

[Quiet Isle]

She's going to Westeros. no question. but her mission is not the throne. she's getting those dragons north to jon and she doesnt even know that. yet. and i think she will die getting them there. last betrayal of the three prong prophecy - betrayal by love. she dies launching those dragons, protecting her children. she betrays her own corporeal self for her children. "a mother does not flee without her children." she gets them there. at all costs. and that means her own life.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

It should be as evident for Tyrion and Dany as it is for us. Aegon gets protection, training and the Golden Company. Dany and Vyseris are left to wander the Free Cities for years and then handed to the dothraki.

She will think herself betrayed by Magister Illyrio. Why was she not told about Aegon? She was married off to Khal Drogo just to get an army---used, exploited---and the Magister expected her to die in the Dothraki Sea. We have seen her "dragon's temper" in action: it will flare up most certainly in this case. Also, Ser Barristan will have only bad things to say about Varys; he has already offered such sentiments. Learning that the Magister is in cahoots with Varys will only stoke the fires.

Illyrio took Dany in, gave her the source of her power (hint hint, they hatched in book one), engineered a scenario by which she could have returned home, and manipulated the circumstances which almost saw Aegon come to her in Meereen ready for (one assumes) marriage.

Outwardly Illyrio is a great friend of Daenerys. He's done nothing publicly incriminating that we know of.

[Quiet Isle]

Illyrio took Dany in, gave her the source of her power (hint hint, they hatched in book one), engineered a scenario by which she could have returned home, and manipulated the circumstances which almost saw Aegon come to her in Meereen ready for (one assumes) marriage.

Outwardly Illyrio is a great friend of Daenerys. He's done nothing publicly incriminating that we know of.

haha hahahahaha.

[Roza Ahai]

Outwardly Illyrio is a great friend of Daenerys. He's done nothing publicly incriminating that we know of.

He have her not only eggs, but delivered ships to the Slaver's Bay IIRC. She instead decided to go to Astapor.

[Old-Growth]

"He would have dragons and the girl who makes them. He would have you."

So Strong Belwas to Dany on the docks at Quarth, when she asks why Illyrio would send him and "Arstan" to her. What do you suppose she will think if she reflects on what Belwas said once she learns about Aegon? Plainly Aegon was Plan A all along, and she is only of use at first because she might be able to bring Drogo and Khalasar to a struggle that will put someone else on the throne, and now because she was able to make something truly useful of what had only been valuable trinkets.

Furthermore Ser Jorah warned her about showing up in Pentos without a military force; about showing up wholly dependent on Illyrio's good will. That too will appear in a different light once she learns about Aegon. Her anger at Ser Jorah notwithstanding, that advice will still ring true: Illyrio's good will was a manipulative exercise from the start, or so she will likely think.

Illyrio may be able to calm the waters somewhat by stressing the great need to keep Aegon hidden, but she will rather reasonably wonder why she was left exposed: was she put at risk to protect Aegon? (As sundry posters have suggested in other threads.)

Her gratitude for Illyrio's help will wither.

Also do we know of any bad blood between Illyrio and the Tattered Prince? Maybe Illyrio would just accept the change at the top.

[Roza Ahai]

Illyrio may be able to calm the waters somewhat by stressing the great need to keep Aegon hidden, but she will rather reasonably wonder why she was left exposed: was she put at risk to protect Aegon? (As sundry posters have suggested in other threads.)

It is easy to explain. Aegon is assumed to be dead. Everybody in Westeros know that Dany and Viserys are alive.

[Jorg Ancrath]

why would Dorne bend the knee to her? they didn't before when the targs came with dragons.

Well Doran has raised his banners and the soldiers are just waiting for her- I fully expected them to fight for her winning of the throne... I hadn't considered Doran might change his mind when he learns Dany's dragon had toasted his kid though.

[Old-Growth]

It is easy to explain. Aegon is assumed to be dead. Everybody in Westeros know that Dany and Viserys are alive.

To our hot headed Dragon Queen?

[Ser Lepus]

But he have given her precious dragon eggs. No eggs, no dragons

Nobody knew that the eggs could hatch at that point. Those were just expensive trinkets, like jewels. Illyrio was expected to give an expensive wedding gift to Khal Drogo. And remember, Drogo gave horses and slaves to Illyrio in exchange for Dany, Illyrio was making a profit out of the exchange.

I suspect that, from Khal Drogo's point of view, Dany was just another gift from the magisters of Pentos, and he would have gifted back the horses and slaves anyway. I don't think Drogo ever had any intention of crossing the Narrow Sea and crown Vyseris (he would just have crowned Vyseris the "king" of some lhazarene town and be done with it).

He have her not only eggs, but delivered ships to the Slaver's Bay IIRC. She instead decided to go to Astapor.

He sent the ships to get Dany and her dragons, yes. How does that make him different to Xaro, the Good Masters of Astapor, the Undying, and all the other people who is trying to take the dragons from her?. If something, it should make her wary of Illyrio's intention.

[Quiet Isle]

I'm pretty sure that GRRM has said that this story really is the tale of Westeros, despite the mess on Essos. So yeah, Dany's going to Westeros. what happens after that is pure speculation on our parts.

And what do you mean when you say who will be the three dragonriders? Do you mean at the endgame when the world has to unite against the WWs? beause Dany has already ridden one. There's a good chance that Jon may ride one of them. I agree with Apple to a certain extent. We may see others ride as well over the course of several world altering events.

But it won't be Victarion in my opinion because a) that horn is bogus and B) the iron islanders always have eyes too big for their stomach. He won't be able to handle it.