How long before House Lannister comes crashing down?

[Ours if the Fury]

I think Tommen and Mrycella will die in WoW, cersi will live a little longer, some of the extended lannister family will also die but not all and i do believe jamie will live to DoS but don't know how long into dream. But it is inevitable that the lannisters all die

[Morienthar]

Took the words right out of mouth, well deserved.

Isn't what the Kids deserve though.

I think Tommen would have made a decent king if he was left under someone like Tywin or Tyrion or Kevan.

To the OP.

Last few chapters of TWoW.

[Maia]

I hate that stupid prophecy so much! It is way too detailed and deterministic, IMHO. For one thing, it decrees that Robert would have become a king no matter what, he would have married Cersei no matter what, etc.

Therefore, I really hope for some twist that would show that the things weren't completely set in stone. I.e. Myrcella surviving, for instance, and either getting married into whatever family holds IT/CR or living out her life as a septa.

I'd like to think that Darkstar's attempt on her life was when she was supposed to die, per Maggy's vision, but didn't.

[SkaggCannibal]

Isn't what the Kids deserve though.

I think Tommen would have made a decent king if he was left under someone like Tywin or Tyrion or Kevan.

To the OP.

Last few chapters of TWoW.

Tywin? The father of Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion? The one with the 'sharp' lessons?

[TalalOfDorne]

Tywin? The father of Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion? The one with the 'sharp' lessons?

One of the main reasons House Lannister is in its current state is because of Tywins awful parenting.

[Maia]

Some people make bad parents, but decent grandparents. Or maybe Kevan could have been in actual charge of raising Tommen, if Tywin admitted to himself his massive failure as a parent.

[The Pain Yak]

Some people make bad parents, but decent grandparents. Or maybe Kevan could have been in actual charge of raising Tommen, if Tywin admitted to himself his massive failure as a parent.

Tywin? Admit to failure? Nah, I'm pretty sure he just blames his kids for their screw-ups, and would just as happily blame Tommen when he didn't turn out exactly the way Tywin wanted him to.

[Not a kneeler]

Can't see the Lannisters keeping the IT untill the end of WoW, but that doesn't mean the whole family will be wiped out. Mycella and Tommen may die, then Cersei. She constantly claims that she and Jaime will leave this world as they came into it - together - so, since Cersei has never been right about anything, Jaime will survive into the last book. Tyrion will probably survive the final ending.

[Morienthar]

Tywin? The father of Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion? The one with the 'sharp' lessons?

Better than Cersei and Tommen is the kind of kid who wouldn't need too many Sharp Lessons.

[Scipio Africanus]

if Tywin admitted to himself his massive failure as a parent.

It would be freezing in Hell before Tywin ever did something like that. His whole raison d'etre was about his image as a faultless ruler and head of Westeros' most prominent and perfect family.

@OP

Tywin's line is already failing, but house Lannister is much bigger than what we see in the books. I think they just might revert back to being just head of the Westland families, with the Lannisters of Lannisport gaining prominence instead of the Lannisters of the Rock.

[Mikkel]

Tywin? Admit to failure? Nah, I'm pretty sure he just blames his kids for their screw-ups, and would just as happily blame Tommen when he didn't turn out exactly the way Tywin wanted him to.

Most likely. Tywin was many things, but introspective or likely to admit he'd failed - that he wasn't.

[Lord Damian]

I and other people are sick of the Lannister incest bastards on the throne. Aegon takes it in the WOW and Tommen dies or flees with "mommy" towards, where?, the Rock. I say she gets captured by The BWB and /lady Stoneheart and she can be reunited with Jaime. Kill all three. Marcylla, let her die. she will not be crowned anything. Daven and the rest of them golden asses I hope get slaughtered in RW 2.0 along will all of the Freys that attend. House Lannister's story has reached its end (except Tyrion, I fear), The Tyrells, Martells, Targaryen/Blackyre Targaryen, Arryns and Starks are the ones to move forward. Oh yeah, and the Greyjoys too.

[Reek Da Villain]

As soon as House Tyrell realizes there is a dragon in Westeros.

[The King's Justice]

With their luck, Aegon will probably get hit by a stray arrow before pressing on King's Landing, Dany will turn North before setting course the throne, and Jon will refuse any claim he has to the throne. Tyrells and Tarly will weaken due to in-fighting, and Stannis will be involved up North. The Lannisters will survive because, well, they are the Lannisters and regular rules need not apply.

But if you look at their predicament right now, they are close to being totally extinguished from existence. Tywin is dead, Cersei and Jaime are far from safe, and they've lost a ton of cousins recently. So yeah, from a rational standpoint I'd say they'll be expelled by mid-WoW by Aegon, so he can be in place when the second Dance of Dragons begins.

It's just that something tells me Martin has a soft spot for the Lannisters, and they will survive all of the events of the series and be the rulers in the end. And of course we know GRRM hates the Starks, so it's only a matter of time before we see all of them wiped out.

The Winds of Winter was provisionally going to be called "A Time for Wolves" so I think just by that title it can be assumed that the Starks will rise again. They have a strong position right now actually because none of their enemies really knows where they are or if they're alive.

Maggy the frog said that Cersei would outlive all her children before she is killed by the "volonqar" and as all of maggy's prophecies have come to pass, it can be assumed that this will too. that means Cersei will die.

[Lord Damian]

The Winds of Winter was provisionally going to be called "A Time for Wolves" so I think just by that title it can be assumed that the Starks will rise again. They have a strong position right now actually because none of their enemies really knows where they are or if they're alive.

Maggy the frog said that Cersei would outlive all her children before she is killed by the "volonqar" and as all of maggy's prophecies have come to pass, it can be assumed that this will too. that means Cersei will die.

Yeah, a pretty good indication that The Stark prisoners/hostages from the Red wedding will be rescued, Rickon/Stark friendly forces will defeat the Boltons in the North because the stage needs to be open for the Others to enter. I also think Cersei will be present to watch all 3 children die. The prophecy may not say that but for dramatic effect, yes.

[Thor Odinson]

I'd like to think that Darkstar's attempt on her life was when she was supposed to die, per Maggy's vision, but didn't.

One could argue that the attempt failed because of the prophecy. Each child is to be crowned and die in turn according to the prophecy. Joffrey was crowned and died, and now Tommen is crowned. Tommen will have to die first before Myrcella can be crowned, and only then will she die. Personally, I expect the Dornish will crown her the instant that Tommen kicks the bucket, and may end up doing away with her themselves once they decide to seal the deal and join with Aegon. That would seal their revenge against the Lannisters. The Lannisters murdered the children of Elia, who were heirs to the Iron Throne, to prove their loyalty to Robert, and the Martell's will murder the child of Cersei, the heir to the Iron Throne, to prove their loyalty to Aegon.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

The Tyrells will leave King's Landing (claiming they have to protect their lands versus the Ironborn assault) abandoning the Lannisters and ultimately ally with the Vale though Mace Tyrell will die either during the escape to save Margery (who will be freed by the Kettleblacks) or in the battle with the Iron Born. The Tyrell/Vale alliance will put forward an Edric Storm/Margery Tyrell combo for the throne, down the road. This will leave King's Landing massively under defended, allowing Aegon to attack, but before he does so, he'll receive Arianne Martell who is there to investigate Aegon and she determines that he is a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen, and will have to make an escape. Aegon Blackfyre attacks King's landing anyways.

Tommen will be murdered most likely by Cersei herself during this invasion (she almost did it when Stannis attacked), though she'll survive when Dorne arrives just in the nick of time, claiming the throne for Myrcella/Tristane with Doran as Hand of the King. Lastly the Vale/Tyrell alliance will arrive, Myrcella will be murdered by the Kettleblacks, and Cersei will throw herself from the Red Keep in anguish. Edric Storm/Margery Tyrell will be on the throne with Littlefinger as their Hand of the King when Dany/Victarion/Jon Snow (now leading the North after the Wall fell) and Tyrion arrive. The resulting battle will completely destroy King's Landing and Edric/Margery will die during the assault (probably by Varys's hand). Littlefinger will be the last one sitting on the throne when Dany/Jon come to claim it.

[Maia]

Most likely. Tywin was many things, but introspective or likely to admit he'd failed - that he wasn't.

How do we know this? IMHO, Tywin wouldn't have been a dangerous SOB he was if he were incapable of recognizing his mistakes and learning from them. Granted, Tywin used to be stubbornly delusional re: the twins, but according to Kevan before his death he finally saw Cersei for the failure she was.

I also find it interesting that Tywin never took a ward and prior to their quarrel wanted Jaime to raise Tommen. Maybe he was well aware of his limitations as a parental figure.

One could argue that the attempt failed because of the prophecy. Each child is to be crowned and die in turn according to the prophecy.

Or maybe Arianne's plot is close enough to fulfill the prophecy. Again, this prophecy is way too encompassing and deterministic. If it comes true to a T, it would mean that nobody in the series world has free will.

I would hate ASOIAF turning into WoT, personally and that's what it would amount to.

[Gurkhal]

Depends on what you mean with "crashing down". They may well lose the Iron Throne but to be extinguished it would require something else entirely.

Tommen will be murdered most likely by Cersei herself during this invasion (she almost did it when Stannis attacked),

Only in the show. In the books Tommen was safe in Rosby by that time.

[bloody_mummer]

Anyone have stats on how much manpower the lanni's have lost since AGOT? I know they lost a sizeable fighting Robb, but have they had any serious losses since the battle of blackwater?