"The Northerners will never forget this" - The long term strategic folly of the RW?

[Myrish Swamp Thing]

The roach in your pudding is that you assume that Tywin had to choose between the Red Wedding and letting Rob go free. That is not really the case.

For instance, how hard it would have been to drug Robb's wine/food at the feast with some dreamwine and the next time he would have waken up, it would have been in a cell?

With more careful planning, Walder and Roose could have easily captured the entire Northern leadership without any blood spilled and, with the leaders in their hands, they could have taken control of their army, thus avoiding the massacre altogether.

With Robb and his companions prisoners, but alive, Roose could have even portrayed himself as a Northern patriot who had to make a hard choice in order to save the North from the folly of a young king bent on revenge against overwhelming odds.

In such a case, the stigma created by the Red Wedding to foster deep hatred between Lannister/Frey/Bolton camp and the North/Riverlands would not have existed and there would have been a real chance at pacification and reconciliation.

Even if Robb had to die, he could have been seized in his chamber, just like Edmure, when he was away from his guards - and his companions could have been arrested without even knowing that Rob was offed.

The Red Wedding occurred because Walder and Tywin both wanted revenge for their injured pride - Walder for the spurned marriage, Tywin for the humiliations he suffered in the field. This is so typical a reaction from Tywin when he thinks someone slighted him, that looking for political motivations is pointless - particularly when there were other, and better, options.

Actually, Tywin's original plan was for a hunting "accident". It was Walder and Roose who escalated it.

[Celestial]

Actually, Tywin's original plan was for a hunting "accident". It was Walder and Roose who escalated it.

Tywin was obviously lying.

First, if Robb was to die in an "accident", why did Walder Frey need a "a promise of protection" from Tywin?

Second, the plotters needed to be sure that Robb would actually go on a hunt - which is very unlikely, having in mind the circumstances. Robb had to go to the North as soon as possible - no way he would have lingered more than absolutely necessarily, wasting several days on a hunting trip.

Third, no way Roose and Walder would have dared perpetrate such a slaughter, which such deep and long-lasting repercussions, without Tywin's approval.

Even if the "hunting accident" theory is true (which is very unlikely), that still does not absolve Tywin for the folly of his pawns. Tywin should have made it perfectly clear to Walder that the Northern must be taken alive - else the Lannister "protection" might not be what Walder hoped for. This would have avoided the ugliness of the red Wedding from its inception.

If Tywin "forgot" about it, then he is incompetent.

It wouldn't be the first time he "forgets" crucial details, though.

[shearstone]

Tywin was obviously lying.

First, if Robb was to die in an "accident", why did Walder Frey need a "a promise of protection" from Tywin?

Second, the plotters needed to be sure that Robb would actually go on a hunt - which is very unlikely, having in mind the circumstances. Robb had to go to the North as soon as possible - no way he would have lingered more than absolutely necessarily, wasting several days on a hunting trip.

Third, no way Roose and Walder would have dared perpetrate such a slaughter, which such deep and long-lasting repercussions, without Tywin's approval.

Even if the "hunting accident" theory is true (which is very unlikely), that still does not absolve Tywin for the folly of his pawns. Tywin should have made it perfectly clear to Walder that the Northern must be taken alive - else the Lannister "protection" might not be what Walder hoped for. This would have avoided the ugliness of the red Wedding from its inception.

If Tywin "forgot" about it, then he is incompetent.

It wouldn't be the first time he "forgets" crucial details, though.

Yeah I never bought Tywin's hunting trip quip either. The reason it went down like it did as Tywin said, he was too careful with his men. So even if Robb was convinced to go on a hunting trip he wouldn't go alone with just the Freys he'd have his guards and the Greatjon just like the RW. The difference would be they would all be armed. Any Frey attempting to assassinate him during the hunt wouldn't live to return and It'd be a lot harder for the Frey's to slaughter Robb's army as they wouldn't be drunk from the wedding.

Maybe Tywin's line was his own personal joke at Cersei's expense due to the ridiculousness of her plot to kill Robert and the even more ridiculous fact that it succeeded.

[Celestial]

Maybe Tywin's line was his own personal joke at Cersei's expense due to the ridiculousness of her plot to kill Robert and the even more ridiculous fact that it succeeded.

Most likely he simply did not trust Tyrion.

Tywin does not keep him in any high regard, that's plain. Albeit Tyrion is more intelligent that Tywin gives him credit for, the fact of the matter is that Tyrion does keep a rather dubious entourage. I would be the last to defend Tywin, but when Tywin said in AGOT that "I am not about to entrust my plans to a man who consorts with sellswords and savages", he did actually have a good point.

[Mad Monkey]

Most likely he simply did not trust Tyrion.

Tywin does not keep him in any high regard, that's plain. Albeit Tyrion is more intelligent that Tywin gives him credit for, the fact of the matter is that Tyrion does keep a rather dubious entourage. I would be the last to defend Tywin, but when Tywin said in AGOT that "I am not about to entrust my plans to a man who consorts with sellswords and savages", he did actually have a good point.

You are right, but I can see how Tyrion might be rankled at this since Tywin has his own menagerie of horrors (Gregor Clegane, Vargo Hoat and his Brave Companions, the latter of whom turn out to be more treacherous than Bronn or the mountain clans ever were).

[Celestial]

You are right, but I can see how Tyrion might be rankled at this since Tywin has his own menagerie of horrors (Gregor Clegane, Vargo Hoat and his Brave Companions, the latter of whom turn out to be more treacherous than Bronn or the mountain clans ever were).

Yes, but Tywin's goons are not his drinking buddies. Tywin makes use of them to perform dirty tasks, but he has not taken them into his confidence. Tyrion actually confides in his companions, on occasion. In addition, he is also known to be fond of wine. If Tywin entrusted his secrets to Tyrion, he has absolutely no guarantee the latter would never spill the beans - deliberately or not.

[Gala]

The roach in your pudding is that you assume that Tywin had to choose between the Red Wedding and letting Rob go free. That is not really the case.

For instance, how hard it would have been to drug Robb's wine/food at the feast with some dreamwine and the next time he would have waken up, it would have been in a cell?

With more careful planning, Walder and Roose could have easily captured the entire Northern leadership without any blood spilled and, with the leaders in their hands, they could have taken control of their army, thus avoiding the massacre altogether.

With Robb and his companions prisoners, but alive, Roose could have even portrayed himself as a Northern patriot who had to make a hard choice in order to save the North from the folly of a young king bent on revenge against overwhelming odds.

In such a case, the stigma created by the Red Wedding to foster deep hatred between Lannister/Frey/Bolton camp and the North/Riverlands would not have existed and there would have been a real chance at pacification and reconciliation.

Even if Robb had to die, he could have been seized in his chamber, just like Edmure, when he was away from his guards - and his companions could have been arrested without even knowing that Rob was offed.

The Red Wedding occurred because Walder and Tywin both wanted revenge for their injured pride - Walder for the spurned marriage, Tywin for the humiliations he suffered in the field. This is so typical a reaction from Tywin when he thinks someone slighted him, that looking for political motivations is pointless - particularly when there were other, and better, options.

Perfect! Thank you, that's nothing to do with any smart moves, they just bloodthirsty and proud (in a bad sense of this word). Neither of them have any respect for anyone. As for me RW was a terribly stupid tactical move. Robb beat Tywin on the battlefield and at strategy, and eventually Tywin made a grave mistake in tactics, so much for his intelligence. That is my point of view.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Robb beat Tywin on the battlefield and at strategy, and eventually Tywin made a grave mistake in tactics, so much for his intelligence. That is my point of view.

Tywin was playing chess while Robb was busy playing checkers, it was not even a proper match up.

Tywin wasn't just playing against Robb but was also focused on Stannis, Renly, Balon and the Vale while Robb allowed his homeland to be conquered as he focused on largely meaningless victories.

[Jon 'Ghost' Targaryn]

But to your point, Jon, Bran, Sands and Arya have all pretty much accepted defeat. They haven't thought about restoring Winterfell and have accepted their fate. That has actually disappointed me. In Jon's defense, as a sworn brother there's not much he can do.

??????? Jon at least had plans of restoring winterfell. He got stabbed for wanting to take a wilding horde and whatever sworn brothers that wanted to follow to retake winterfell. I'd say he was a lil pissed after the pink letter. And him being stabbed and somehow released from his vows will ultimately lead to such a act.

[Jon 'Ghost' Targaryn]

I take it you're English.

I agree with Bright Blue Eyes and I think the OP was thinking long term.

But to your point, Jon, Bran, Sands and Arya have all pretty much accepted defeat. They haven't thought about restoring Winterfell and have accepted their fate. That has actually disappointed me. In Jon's defense, as a sworn brother there's not much he can do.

Fortunately for the Starks, the rest of the North remembers.

[Jon 'Ghost' Targaryn]

I take it you're English.

I agree with Bright Blue Eyes and I think the OP was thinking long term.

But to your point, Jon, Bran, Sands and Arya have all pretty much accepted defeat. They haven't thought about restoring Winterfell and have accepted their fate. That has actually disappointed me. In Jon's defense, as a sworn brother there's not much he can do.

Fortunately for the Starks, the rest of the North remembers.

[Knight Of Winter]

I posted this is another thread, so I'll just paste it here:

In short term, Red Wedding was a brilliant move, at least for Tywin and the Lannisters. It eliminated charismatic enemy king immediately, killed most of his army, demoralized the rest and gave opportunity for blackmailing Northern families with hostages.

In long term, however, it was far from brilliant. First and foremost, while it did eliminate the enemy, it drastically changed the warfare customs - for the worse. It established that killing thousands of unarmed guests is okay thing to do and legitimate way of leading a war. Before RW, such act was unthinkable - Cat and Robb thought they were safe once Walder Frey offered them food and drink. They, along with the rest of Northern army, did not even consider the possibility of Frey betrayal while protected by guest right. Now, every subordinate of Bolton, Frey and Lannister houses has legitimate excuse to do similar thing to their own overlords. Ultimately, it makes future wars more treacherous and more costly.

Secondly, it made excellent rallying point for Northmen (much like American battle cry "Remember the Alamo", and yes, I'm aware that Alamo was a siege, not guest-slaying. I'm just stating that defeat at Alamo made great unifying point for all American soldiers). Before, North could bow the knee under right conditions. I think Robb's resolve to prolong the war would weaken over time, and Robb, with right leverage, would consider making peace (much like Ned). Nowdays, every existing Northmen will be hell-bent on revenge. Instead of usual enemy, L&B&F got themselves rabid "determinators" who will fight to the very end. RW made the war personal for them.

And thirdly - instead of inexperienced and fallible teenager king, his enemies are now facing the legend of martyr. This is much related to second point explained above.

[juanml82]

The Red Wedding is not the only wrong that Iron Throne did to the Starks. Although under different dynasties, they kept harrassing the Starks amd the houses loyal to them for Three generations.

1) Lyanna Stark, "kidnapped" by Rhaegar Targaryen, The Crown Prince to the Iron Throne, Lord of Dragonstone.

2) Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, burned to death in a trial by combat against fire; "The Champion of the Targaryens", picked by Aerys Targaryen, The Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm. His company of 200 men were killed.

3) Brandon Stark, Heir to Winterfell, strangled to death while trying to save his father from burning, by orders of Aerys Targaryen, the Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

4) Lady, the direwolf belonging to Sansa Stark, executed by Queen Cersei Lannister's orders on the Kingsroad.

5) The household of Eddard Stark in King's Landing: Arya Stark went missing, presuned dead, Sansa Stark kept hostage by the Lannisters engaged to Joffrey Baratheon, Jeyne Poole kept hostage by Littlefinger to be trained as a whore; the rest are murdered including Septa Mordane, Wayon Poole and Jory Cassel.

6) Lord Eddard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, the Hand of the King to Robert Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm, executed at the Great Sept of Baelor in King's Landing after being accused of treason on orders of Joffrey Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

7) Noble Causalities during the War of the Five Kings.

8) The Northern Host that is killed by treachery of Ramsay Snow, the Bastard of Dreadfort.

9) The Red Wedding Causalities

-Robb Stark, the first of his name, King in the North and King of the Trident, killed by Roose Bolton, Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North.

-Lady Catelyn Tully, Widow of Lord Eddard Stark, mother to Robb Stark.

-Smalljon Umber, Heir to the Last Hearth.

-Ser Wendel Manderly.

-Lady Dacey Mormont.

-Donnel Locke

-Robin Flint

-Owen Norrey

-Lucas Blackwood

-Grey Wind

10)Red Wedding Captives

-Lord Greatjon Umber

-Lord Edmure Tully

-Patrek Mallister

-Ser Marq Piper

After all these treacherous acts and murders, there is no way for the North to forget, or to forgive, the Iron Throne.

It doesn't end there. When the Skagosi rebelled, and killed a Lord Stark, it looks like the North fought on its own. When the wildlings under that King beyond the Wall before Mance invaded, the North was on its own again. When Dagon Greyjoy raided the North and the Westerlands, the Iron Throne quite literately looked the other way.

The Iron Throne never contributed much, if anything at all, to keep the King's Peace in the North.

Not only the Northern lords were affected by it, the other Riverland lords like Blackwood, Mallister etc. were affected by it, too. The Lannisters managed to turn two regions against them for centuries to come.

On a side note: I do not comprehend, how Walder Frey imagined to repair relations with the other Riverlords after the Red Wedding. If it is true, that he thought his family would be made Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, then he must have anticipated, that vassal lords, whose families and troops have been taken captive/killed while he gave them a sacred promise of protection (guest right) would not be vassals he could rely upon in the future.

By hostages and military victory. He plans on making them obey at the tip of a sword. The Frey turned into the House with the largest surviving host and it's likely to remain that way for about 10 years.

Westeros isn't post-French Revolution 19th century Europe, Westeros is a feudal with no conceptions of nationalism. To speak of Northern nationalism, not to mention ultra-nationalism, is absurd. The nationalistic undertones, however, are present in the HBO series, which is yet another testament to how poorly adapted it is.

There are no nation states in the modern sense, that I agree. There is a religious, cultural and racial divide, though. It might not cement "Northern Nationalism" because the concept of "Nationalism" doesn't exist, but it can cement many of the underlying factors which do make up modern nationalism.

As for the Lannister's involvement, Tywin pretty much got clean hands and, should thing turn for the worse, I think he wouldn't have hesitated to sacrifice the Freys. Yes, there are suspicions, but nothing clear. And some northerner said the North would have peace until the last of the Freys is buried on top of the last of the Boltons, or something around those lines. No mention of Lannisters there.

I think his mistake was the wedding arrangements post RW. While Amerei Frey marriage with a Lannister might still be justified due Amerei's weak claim to Darry, giving Riverrun to the Freys and marrying them to a Lannister pretty much put a huge neon sign saying "RW accomplices here!". That might have been Kevan's notion, though, and Kevan is a very poor shadow of his older brother IMHO.

[The Fallen]

Tywin was playing chess while Robb was busy playing checkers, it was not even a proper match up.Tywin wasn't just playing against Robb but was also focused on Stannis, Renly, Balon and the Vale while Robb allowed his homeland to be conquered as he focused on largely meaningless victories.

So meaningless that they had Tywin scurrying back to the westerlands.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

So meaningless that they had Tywin scurrying back to the westerlands.

Until a more meaningful threat presented itself at Kings Landing.

[The Frosted King]

Tywin was playing chess while Robb was busy playing checkers, it was not even a proper match up.

Tywin wasn't just playing against Robb but was also focused on Stannis, Renly, Balon and the Vale while Robb allowed his homeland to be conquered as he focused on largely meaningless victories.

Not really.

Tywin was fortunate in that his most probable enemies had brainfarts and decided to attack each other, rather than their common enemy.

When did Tywin give a thought to Balon?

Robb was playing Go, Tywin was mangling chess and Stannis was trying to diagonally jump in checkers.

Be serious.

Between Rodrik pulling a Joffrey and leaving the northern capitol defenseless, Balon working strongly against his own best interests, and Theon burning Winterfell, Robb was hamstrung by idiots and fools.

Meanwhile Tywin had Tyrion and Baelish squarely working on his behalf.

Tywin took advantage of his windfalls, while the heavens rained on the Starks continually.

[TheMaxx]

Tywin had some massive luck on his side too.

Renly being a cocky git and allowing the Tyrells to brainwash him into seeking the Throne; no combined Baratheon force to take down the Lannisters crushingly and easily.

Balon being stupid and also not really Ironborn and attacking the North instead of the weakly defended, gold rich Lannister ports.

Robb being stupid and marrying a girl he was not supposed to. Robb's bannermen being stupid (Karstark).

Tywin had skill but also a lot of luck it seems.

[Little Lark]

Question: "Was the Red Wedding a long-term strategic folly?"

Short answer: Yes.

Long answer: It's a bit more complicated.

Most of the responses to the OP thus far are either forgetting or passing over a number of the most important factors both in Tywin's (the primary mastermind behind the RW) calculations and plans, and the reasons that these are not going to pan out with regard to keeping the North subservient to the Iron Throne in the long run.

There are two elements in any debate about the political aspects of the Red Wedding that require no discussion: first, that it was an instance of utter moral depravity (unless you subscribe to a really extreme brand of utilitarianism); and second, that the conventions of narrative esnure that pretty much all of the perpetrators (those who are still alive that is) are doomed to be eventually defeated at some point over the course of the remaining books in the series. However, accepting these two things as a given doesn't invalidate the merits of Tywin's original plan for the Red Wedding and its aftermath, from the realpolitik perspective.

There were two immediate primary benefits that the Red Wedding brought for the Lannisters, that could not have been achieved through any other viable means. The first one is obvious, but has implications that aren't always given as much examination as they merit, in my opinion. Simply put, it made them the victors in the war against the Starks, quickly and at very small cost. A lot of fans (not unnaturally, it must be said) are fond of expressing outrage at Tywin's ex post facto justification for his involvement in the conspiracy with the Freys and Boltons: to wit, "Why is it more noble to kill ten thousand men in battle than a dozen at dinner?" Many fans have correctly skewered Tywin for being almost obscenely glib in this portrayal of the massacre - a "dozen men dying at dinner" hardly even begins to do justice to the extent of the atrocity carried out by the Freys at his behest. That being said, in the midst of this righteous indignation it is easy to overlook that Tywin's words carry a broader implication that is less easy to dismiss, which can be amply illustrated by considering a simple hypothetical: what if the Red Wedding didn't take place?

In an alternate scenario where Robb Stark and his men survived the hospitality of the Freys, and returned to the North, as he had originally planned, then the Lannisters would have been staring down the barrel of a situation likely to result in far greater losses than Tywin's "ten thousand men". If the Young Wolf had been left free to return to his homeland to expel the Ironborn invaders and rally the Northmen anew to his cause, then it is very difficult to imagine any sort of scenario in which the Lannisters could have achieved any sort of clean-cut victory in the war against the North. Robb Stark, apart from being a brilliant general, was also an utterly irreconcilable foe for the Lannisters by that point, and as long as he remained alive and was able to continue fielding armies, the war would have continued, potentially for years, unless the Lannisters had staged an invasion of the North itself - something that would be the virtual definition of 'strategic nightmare' to accomplish. Faced with the alternatives of either subduing the Starks through conventional military means or accepting a negotiated settlement to the conflict (both of which would have necessitated losses unacceptable to the Lannisters' pride and/or interests), it is no wonder at all that Tywin resorted to intrigue and murder as his weapons of choice to defeat the Young Wolf. The reaction against the Red Wedding ensured that the challenge of bringing about a lasting subjagation of the North to the Iron Throne would be an imposing, possibly even an insurmountable one - but if it weren't for the Red Wedding, then the Lannisters might never have been able to defeat the Starks in the first place, and so the question of how to rule their lands would have been a moot question.

That brings us to the second primary benefit of the Red Wedding for the Lannisters in comparison to other viable strategic options, and to the aspect of Tywin's calculations that has been most overlooked in the comments in this thread thus far: the hostage factor. Although the Red Wedding is popularly depicted as an indiscriminate massacre, it is worth remembering that it was anything but. Robb Stark, his mother, most of his bodyguards, and all of the lowborn northern soldiers were mercilessly slaughtered, but many of the highborn Stark loyalists were not: arguably the most direct political consequence of the RW was that the Lannisters and their allies gained a veritable cornucopia of hostages, from many important Houses in the Riverlands and the North, that ought to have been of invaluable utility for enforcing the submission of the former supporters of the Starks and Tullys (something that we see in action in both AFFC and ADWD). It is also worth noting that under Tywin's original plans for the RW, the hostage situation might have been even more beneficial for the Lannisters, as he had hoped that the Freys would keep Catelyn Stark alive as a prisoner (which would have had the added benefit, though no one could have realised it, of ensuring that she never became the leader of the BWB) - although in 'fairness' to the Freys' decision to kill her instead, it is difficult to say what utility she would have had as a hostage after she went insane.

That more or less covers the political merits inherent for the Lannisters in the Red Wedding. On the flip side of the coin is the blow-back that the atrocity generates, both throughout Westeros generally and in the North and Riverlands particularly, and the complications that these create for the efforts of the Lannisters to consolidate their dynastic control over the Seven Kingdoms. Here I would contend that most of the comments made in this thread thus far (including in the OP) show insufficient regard for the degree to which Tywin at least was cognizant of the challenge involved in bringing a post-RW Kingdom of the North back under the rule of the Iron Throne, and that his designs to bring this goal to fruition were ultimately rendered inadequate far more by plot developments that would have been difficult or impossible to predict in advance, than by the inadequacy of his political strategy.

Most of the comments in the thread thus far - including the OP - have noted that the central obstacle to binding the post-RW North to the Iron Throne lies in the overwhelmingly pro-Stark sentiment that abounds throughout the region. What most of them pass over is that Tywin not only plainly recognized this, but actively tried to turn it to his advantage by endeavouring to make sure that the only surviving (legitimate) Starks would be half-Lannisters, thanks to the marriage between Tyrion and Sansa. This is another area in which consideration of a hypothetical illustrates how events could easily have turned out positively for the Lannisters: in an alternative scenario where Bran and Rickon didn't survive the fall of Winterfell, and where Sansa didn't escape from King's Landing in the aftermath of Joffrey's wedding, then Tywin could have had the ultimate playing card to utilize in bringing the North under control: a grandchild who would have been the legitimate heir of House Stark, and which would have been a game-changer in terms of winning over the northmen in the long term. Obviously this hope was rendered null by events in the latter part of ASOS, but it does illuminate the main pathway by which the North could have been reconciled, in the long term, to rule by a Lannister monarchy.

Basically, although the Lannister victory in the war against the North, achieved as it was through the device of the Red Wedding, is almost certainly going to turn out to have been a poisoned chalice, that eventuation is contingent on a variety of factors that Tywin could not have realistically been expected to anticipate when he signed off on Roose Bolton and Walder Frey's plot to murder Robb at the Twins: Sansa Stark escaping from the Red Keep without Tyrion having ever consumated their marriage, Catelyn Stark being resurrected by Beric Dondarrion and turning the BWB into an instrument of vendetta, Stannis Baratheon arriving in the North and eluding all of Roose Bolton's efforts to destroy him, Bran and Rickon Stark surviving the fall of Winterfell, a witness reporting their survival to Wyman Manderly, etc, etc. Most importantly, he didn't anticipate that he himself would be dead mere weeks after the culmination of his political masterstroke, or that his death would precipitate the near-total collapse of House Lannister's power, thanks largely to the blundering of his daughter.

:agree: It's funny how that quote makes Tywin seem completely cavalier about the RW and it's potential consequences. It may even seem a little out of character; I mean, Tywin's ruthless but he's not stupid. Why would he risk violating one of the most important cultural mores in Westeros, especially with the kingdom so unstable? I think what people sometimes forget is that we, as readers, have the information that most of Westeros lacks. Tywin himself tells us that the RW was planned in the utmost secrecy:

"No one was told, save those who had a part to play. And they were only told as much as they needed to know. You ought to know that there is no other way to keep a secret-here, especially."

As far as the 7 Kingdoms are concerned (for the most part), Tywin's hands are clean. Admittedly, you don't have to be a genius to figure out that Lannister involvement would have been a necessity for Walder Frey to actually go ahead with the massacre, but even then it would be difficult to confirm these suspicions. Throughout the rest of the series, most of the RW references are made in slurs against the Freys. The Bolton role is rarely mentioned at all although the Northmen, at least, seem fully aware of it. At any rate, the Lannister reputation wasn't tainted by this incident.

That the RW was sickening is something we all agree on (I hope..), but Tywin DID end the war with the North in a decisive manner with fewer casualties that he could have hoped for otherwise. Among those casualties, we can include the Freys. They represented an important group of expendable players with petty, short-sighted goals for revenge that could easily be thrown under the bus. Not to mention, characters outside of Tywin's inner circle have generally implicated Lame Lothar Frey and Roose Bolton as the masterminds behind the RW.

So in regards to the OP, I don't think the RW has been haunting the Iron Throne so much as it's haunting the Boltons and Freys. The social leprosy that the Lannisters have been suffering from in later books is mainly due to Cersei's inability to couple ruthlessness with subtlety. Not to mention, there are plenty of other reasons for the North to hate the crown, such as the beheading of Ned Stark.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Balon being stupid and also not really Ironborn and attacking the North instead of the weakly defended, gold rich Lannister ports.

Robb mentions that he does not have manpower to take either Lannisport or Casterly Rock so we can assume that the wealth of the rich ports was well guarded as opposed to the poor seat od the Westerlings, the Crag.

[TheMaxx]

Robb mentions that he does not have manpower to take either Lannisport or Casterly Rock so we can assume that the wealth of the rich ports was well guarded as opposed to the poor seat od the Westerlings, the Crag.

Only because he was spending forces elswhere. If he had a decent sized group to spare he'd take them; that decent sized group could've been the Ironborn.