"The Northerners will never forget this" - The long term strategic folly of the RW?

[Lord Egeman]

That's not a bad way of putting it.

Like I said elsewhere, he was more of an embodiment of the Stark cause than much of a personality in his own right.

With this way of the statement I can agree. I saw it as judging GRRM's ability rather than commenting on Robb alone. I still think he was tragic, but not among the greatest tragic heroes.

Regarding the success of the Red Wedding, it had the promise of keeping the Northmen in line if Tywin was able to unite the realm eventually. Then it would turn into a rebellion 300 or so years later. The realm is not united at the moment and that's why there are conspiracies.

[Gala]

That's not a bad way of putting it.

Like I said elsewhere, he was more of an embodiment of the Stark cause than much of a personality in his own right.

With this way of the statement I can agree. I saw it as judging GRRM's ability rather than commenting on Robb alone. I still think he was tragic, but not among the greatest tragic heroes.

Regarding the success of the Red Wedding, it had the promise of keeping the Northmen in line if Tywin was able to unite the realm eventually. Then it would turn into a rebellion 300 or so years later. The realm is not united at the moment and that's why there are conspiracies.

That is right, but what does him being a tragic hero or his personality (character, which is shown from the other POV's) have to do with him being a good military general?

Actually, it is kind of hard to compare Robb and Tywin, because everything depends on your own principles and points of view, I mean whether you (I mean any reader) approve or not the actions of both characters. I like Tyrion and Jaime (I pity a lot both of them) or Kevan (I mean from Lannister characters), but Tywin, Cersei and Joff disgust me.

Robb was a good general, he was a boy still, Tywin was a good politician, the means both these men used to gain what they need are completely different and opposite, really. Robb lacked experience, cunning and cold heart to be a match for Tywin and to win over him too, but that doesn't mean he was worse in warfare than Tywin.

[kingnorthman]

It is a long term folly, first of all he meant that Tywin never won a battle against Robb stark, and he would've lost the war had Robb not broken his vow to walder frey( still think walder is a cunt) but let's look at the lannisters here. You're talking about a house who's victories are purely based off treachery, they waited till the end of robert's rebellion to choose sides, a pussy move. They orchestrate the red wedding because they were losing, another pussy move. Tywin is a cunt that's why he's dead now. House lannister will be in ruin before the series ends, and in the words of jojen, "The wolves will return"

[Whitering]

It is a long term folly, first of all he meant that Tywin never won a battle against Robb stark, and he would've lost the war had Robb not broken his vow to walder frey( still think walder is a cunt) but let's look at the lannisters here. You're talking about a house who's victories are purely based off treachery, they waited till the end of robert's rebellion to choose sides, a pussy move. They orchestrate the red wedding because they were losing, another pussy move. Tywin is a cunt that's why he's dead now. House lannister will be in ruin before the series ends, and in the words of jojen, "The wolves will return"

They had won the war by then essentially though. If the Tyrells went North, Robb was toast, even a small part of their army matched his for manpower. Robb had also lost the war by then, but like Cat said a long time before they had accomplished their goals of freeing the Riverlands, punishing the Westerlands and securing Northern independence. Nothing was going to bring Ned back, and peace had a chance of getting Sansa back, but Robb stayed at the table too long.

 

Also, the Red Wedding never had to happen Edmure did it by stripping the garrison out of the Twins that Robb had left there to ensure their loyalty. If that garrison was still there, Robb could have told Walder to let them through or get slaughtered by men within his Walls, no Wedding necessary. That ability to tell the Freys to fuck themselves was gone because of Edmure, so he had to have a Wedding.

 

However, Robb never needed to go south in the first place, when Cat made the proposal he had not yet done so and they could have traded Jaime for peace and Arya and Sansa and maybe even Ned taking the black, that means Robb never betrays Frey, gets married to Roslin and Arya kills her idiot husband before or on the Wedding day.

[The Wolves]

They had won the war by then essentially though. If the Tyrells went North, Robb was toast, even a small part of their army matched his for manpower. Robb had also lost the war by then, but like Cat said a long time before they had accomplished their goals of freeing the Riverlands, punishing the Westerlands and securing Northern independence. Nothing was going to bring Ned back, and peace had a chance of getting Sansa back, but Robb stayed at the table too long.
 
Also, the Red Wedding never had to happen Edmure did it by stripping the garrison out of the Twins that Robb had left there to ensure their loyalty. If that garrison was still there, Robb could have told Walder to let them through or get slaughtered by men within his Walls, no Wedding necessary. That ability to tell the Freys to fuck themselves was gone because of Edmure, so he had to have a Wedding.
 
However, Robb never needed to go south in the first place, when Cat made the proposal he had not yet done so and they could have traded Jaime for peace and Arya and Sansa and maybe even Ned taking the black, that means Robb never betrays Frey, gets married to Roslin and Arya kills her idiot husband before or on the Wedding day.

The Tyrells would have never marched North, why would they with winter coming and nothing north of the Neck they cared about?

[sweetsunray]

They had won the war by then essentially though. If the Tyrells went North, Robb was toast, even a small part of their army matched his for manpower. Robb had also lost the war by then, but like Cat said a long time before they had accomplished their goals of freeing the Riverlands, punishing the Westerlands and securing Northern independence. Nothing was going to bring Ned back, and peace had a chance of getting Sansa back, but Robb stayed at the table too long.

 

Also, the Red Wedding never had to happen Edmure did it by stripping the garrison out of the Twins that Robb had left there to ensure their loyalty. If that garrison was still there, Robb could have told Walder to let them through or get slaughtered by men within his Walls, no Wedding necessary. That ability to tell the Freys to fuck themselves was gone because of Edmure, so he had to have a Wedding.

 

However, Robb never needed to go south in the first place, when Cat made the proposal he had not yet done so and they could have traded Jaime for peace and Arya and Sansa and maybe even Ned taking the black, that means Robb never betrays Frey, gets married to Roslin and Arya kills her idiot husband before or on the Wedding day.

 

They only managed to capture Jaime because Robb went south to the Riverlands. And before Robb could make a deal regarding Ned, Joff had his head chopped off.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

It is a long term folly, first of all he meant that Tywin never won a battle against Robb stark, and he would've lost the war had Robb not broken his vow to walder frey( still think walder is a cunt) but let's look at the lannisters here. You're talking about a house who's victories are purely based off treachery, they waited till the end of robert's rebellion to choose sides, a pussy move. They orchestrate the red wedding because they were losing, another pussy move. Tywin is a cunt that's why he's dead now. House lannister will be in ruin before the series ends, and in the words of jojen, "The wolves will return"

Even Tywin's lauded achievement, The Rains of Castamere, wasn't done on the battlefield. It was another dirty trick. The guy has a clear MO. People go on and on about Stark apologists but this guy is an average general a best. A ruler who deals with dissent with savagery then doesn't even have the stones to admit what he did afterwards. Know why? Because he knows he's done something wrong. Saying he's this genius strategist is a massive overstatement. He's a politician and a thug. A good politician and a good thug but let's keep things in perspective. His biggest victories in life came through savage acts of violence, not on the battlefield like a warrior, or through diplomacy like a statesman. His way works, that's not up for debate, but eventually it wears thin. His own son killed him because he wasn't smart enough to keep his mouth shut. Does that sound like a genius to you?

[The Dragons Hand]

Oh, most certainly. It wouldn't have been as bad had the Lannisters had the situation locked down afterward, but then every competent Lannister died of conspicuous crossbow bolts or they fucked right off because Cersei is nutty.

Plus, having the Northmen bow to the Boltons was just asking for trouble.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

The Northeners had already shut up and dealt with it until Tywin died, Stannis went north and Cersei screwed the Lannisters like they've never been screwed before.

 

Northern independence isn't happening and wasn't really realistic at any point of the War of the Five Kings. Robb's role was to show that no matter how good a tactician you are if you're crap at strategy and politics you're getting screwed as a ruler.

[TheonSanders]

It seems to me that Tywin is very poor when it comes to long-term politics but great in short-term politics. In the short term the RW was an absolutely brilliant move that temporarily put down the North. But lacking foresight he couldn't see that the North remembers and are fiercely loyal to the Starks and that possibly the North will rise up again the Lannisters in retribution (but that's not Tywin's problem anymore). 

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

It seems to me that Tywin is very poor when it comes to long-term politics but great in short-term politics. In the short term the RW was an absolutely brilliant move that temporarily put down the North. But lacking foresight he couldn't see that the North remembers and are fiercely loyal to the Starks and that possibly the North will rise up again the Lannisters in retribution (but that's not Tywin's problem anymore). 

 

If the South were united the North can rise up as many times it wants. It'd only get beaten down. 

 

Tywin's 'mistake' was not cutting Littlefinger's and Varys' heads as soon as possible (though he had no way of knowing exactly what games they were playing- Tyrion hadn't told him about Littlefinger's knife and Cat's accusations from what I remember).

[Darksnider05]

 

If the South were united the North can rise up as many times it wants. It'd only get beaten down. 

 

Tywin's 'mistake' was not cutting Littlefinger's and Varys' heads as soon as possible (though he had no way of knowing exactly what games they were playing- Tyrion hadn't told him about Littlefinger's knife and Cat's accusations from what I remember).

 

You understand starting a blood feud is completely different from starting a War.  It means no one in your family can ever be safe in the presence of X party.  You travel anywhere you better look over your shoulder because someones cousin or father got butchered at the RW might be there. 

 

That's not the same as War.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Even Tywin's lauded achievement, The Rains of Castamere, wasn't done on the battlefield. It was another dirty trick.

 

 

How was it a dirty trick?

 

Did Tywin tell them that he had forgiven them, did he offer terms and them betray them at the last minute?

 

No. His position was clear.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

 

You understand starting a blood feud is completely different from starting a War.  It means no one in your family can ever be safe in the presence of X party.  You travel anywhere you better look over your shoulder because someones cousin or father got butchered at the RW might be there. 

 

That's not the same as War.

 

The Starks were pretty much wiped out as far as Tywin knew- and they're pretty low even with the current events and most of the shame related to the Red Wedding fell on the Freys.

 

Yeah a lot of northern houses would hate the Lannisters- so what? The North was pretty screwed anyway. Bolton and Karstark were firmly against the Starks, the Starks themselves killed or under Tywin's thumb and the rest of the land a chaotic mess filled with Ironborn. If suddenly Varys didn't happen Tywin could oppress the northeners as much as he wish. The problem is trusting (or at least trusting that he can control) Varys and Littlefinger.

[Van Gogh]

The Red Wedding is paying off for the Freys so far.  I don't expect it to continue paying off in the long-term. 

[Ramsay Gimp]

Even if we buy into the claim that Tywin wasn't a "great general" like Robb or Stannis (he was actually better than Stannis and equal to Robb, but I'll pretend not for the sake of argument), what's so great about being a "great general" anyway? Robb and Stannis both won battles, but neither ever won a war. Tywin won two. 

 

Even Tywin's lauded achievement, The Rains of Castamere, wasn't done on the battlefield. It was another dirty trick. The guy has a clear MO. 

 

You realize he had defeated both the Reynes and Tarbecks on the battlefield before he slaughtered them, right?

 

Or is this the part where you say that doesn't matter because Tywin had superior numbers for those battles, while ignoring the reasons he had superior numbers?

 

It seems to me that Tywin is very poor when it comes to long-term politics but great in short-term politics. In the short term the RW was an absolutely brilliant move that temporarily put down the North. But lacking foresight he couldn't see that the North remembers and are fiercely loyal to the Starks and that possibly the North will rise up again the Lannisters in retribution (but that's not Tywin's problem anymore). 

 

But the North was already fighting the Lannisters in retribution when Tywin authorized the Red Wedding. They were already Tywin's mortal enemies, and Robb had made it clear that he would not bend the knee. So what did Tywin have to lose? 

 

People who say that the Red Wedding created a bunch of new enemies for the Lannisters never name who these new enemies are. Because there aren't any. Everyone from the North/Riverlands who is currently fighting the Lannisters was already fighting them before the Red Wedding, the only difference is that now they are much weaker. 

 

War isn't about being fair or nice to your enemies. It's about winning. 

[Ramsay Gimp]

 

You understand starting a blood feud is completely different from starting a War.  It means no one in your family can ever be safe in the presence of X party.  You travel anywhere you better look over your shoulder because someones cousin or father got butchered at the RW might be there. 

 

That's not the same as War.

 

This applies to Walder Frey, and to a lesser extent Roose Bolton.

 

Tywin was Robb's enemy, not his host or his bannerman. He broke no truce, betrayed no oath. 

[The Wolves]

The Red Wedding is paying off for the Freys so far.  I don't expect it to continue paying off in the long-term. 

The Freys never had any pay off from the RW except two marriages to the Lannisters and Boltons.

[HappilyEverAfter]

The Freys never had any pay off from the RW except two marriages to the Lannisters and Boltons.

And getting Riverrun as well as revenge.

[The Wolves]

And getting Riverrun.

But it's not a safe seat.