"The Northerners will never forget this" - The long term strategic folly of the RW?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The Freys never had any pay off from the RW except two marriages to the Lannisters and Boltons.

 

Roose was married before the Red Wedding was arranged. As I recall Roose got paid for that marriage, not vice versa.

[Lord Wraith]

 

War isn't about being fair or nice to your enemies. It's about winning. 

 

Precisely.  We can sit here and armchair general everything but the results speak for themselves whether or not we like the outcome.

[The Wolves]

 
Roose was married before the Red Wedding was arranged. As I recall Roose got paid for that marriage, not vice versa.

Forgot about that.

So the Freys only got two Lannister marriages out of it and a unsafe seat.

[LordPathera]

In the short term, the Red Wedding was a good idea.

 

But it backfired because Tywin and his allies underestimated the North's loyalty towards the Starks and how po'ed they'd be.

 

Tywin essentially did to the North with the Red Wedding what Joffrey did to Robb when he killed Ned Stark.

[HappilyEverAfter]

Forgot about that.

So the Freys only got two Lannister marriages out of it and a unsafe seat.

How exactly is it an unsafe seat? At best, Riverrun could be expected to hold out for two years, and it's practically untakable, it's a pretty safe seat. And the Freys also get the seat of House Darry who they seem to have an enmity with, as well as securing a marriage to the Warden of the West. The Red Wedding, and the results, also allowed Walder Frey to live out all of his revenge fantasies. And with Littlefinger in the Vale, they are the de facto ruling house in the Riverlands, simply by virtue of being the most powerful.

[The Wolves]

How exactly is it an unsafe seat? At best, Riverrun could be expected to hold out for two years, and it's practically untakable, it's a pretty safe seat. And the Freys also get the seat of House Darry who they seem to have an enmity with, as well as securing a marriage to the Warden of the West. The Red Wedding, and the results, also allowed Walder Frey to live out all of his revenge fantasies. And with Littlefinger in the Vale, they are the de facto ruling house in the Riverlands, simply by virtue of being the most powerful.

It's an unsafe seat because that is the place that would be hit first when a rebellion against the Freys/Lannisters happen. Even Genna Lannister calls Riverrun a unsafe seat.

And no the Freys are not the defecto rulers of the Riverlands just because Littlfinger is in the Vale it doesn't work like that, Littlfinger is still the overlord of the Riverlands.

Okay so Walder Frey got to live out a short lived fantasy of revenge when in the process he's doomed his house and got nothing out of it but a castle, two Lannister marriages and revenge that people are disgusted with.

[HappilyEverAfter]

It's an unsafe seat because that is the place that would be hit first when a rebellion against the Freys/Lannisters happen. Even Genna Lannister calls Riverrun a unsafe seat.

And no the Freys are not the defecto rulers of the Riverlands just because Littlfinger is in the Vale it doesn't work like that, Littlfinger is still the overlord of the Riverlands.

Okay so Walder Frey got to live out a short lived fantasy of revenge when in the process he's doomed his house and got nothing out of it but a castle, two Lannister marriages and revenge that people are disgusted with.

1. Even if it's targeted first (rather than the Twins), how would they take it? The Lannisters tried twice and only succeeded the second time (with very large hosts) because of Jaime's hostages and reputation. The Freys are too numerous for hostages to be effective.

2. And he hasn't governed the Riverlanders whatsoever. While the Freys hold three castles, have the IT on their side and were the mosy powerful bannermen of the Tullys anyway. And they have hostages to keep the rest of the Riverlands (which aren't burnt or destroyed) in line. Even if Littlefinger takes his seat in the Riverlands (which looks unlikely), he needs the Freys on his side, and the only way to get the Freys on your side is to marry them.

3. He's got two castles, a marriage to the Warden of the West (which is a pretty big thing in terms of military) who will probably get Casterly Rock if Cersei stays in KL. And destroyed the Starks, Tullys and Darrys who all disrespected him. Even if people are disgusted with him, he's an old man who's going to die soon and doesn't really care who inherits, safe in the knowledge that he has dozens of heirs. The only people who are capable and willing to punish him are a poorly equipped guerilla force and the armies of the North which (if they get past the Frey soldiers he's sent there as well as his buddy Bolton) is going to be weak in terms of numbers, while he has two of the most defensible castles in the Riverlands.

[The Wolves]

1. Even if it's targeted first (rather than the Twins), how would they take it? The Lannisters tried twice and only succeeded the second time (with very large hosts) because of Jaime's hostages and reputation. The Freys are too numerous for hostages to be effective.

2. And he hasn't governed the Riverlanders whatsoever. While the Freys hold three castles, have the IT on their side and were the mosy powerful bannermen of the Tullys anyway. And they have hostages to keep the rest of the Riverlands (which aren't burnt or destroyed) in line. Even if Littlefinger takes his seat in the Riverlands (which looks unlikely), he needs the Freys on his side, and the only way to get the Freys on your side is to marry them.

3. He's got two castles, a marriage to the Warden of the West (which is a pretty big thing in terms of military) who will probably get Casterly Rock if Cersei stays in KL. And destroyed the Starks, Tullys and Darrys who all disrespected him. Even if people are disgusted with him, he's an old man who's going to die soon and doesn't really care who inherits, safe in the knowledge that he has dozens of heirs. The only people who are capable and willing to punish him are a poorly equipped guerilla force and the armies of the North which (if they get past the Frey soldiers he's sent there as well as his buddy Bolton) is going to be weak in terms of numbers, while he has two of the most defensible castles in the Riverlands.

1. There are men roaming the Riverlands who know Riverrun inside and out of the castle plus I doubt the Freys are going to hold Riverrun anytime soon.

2. We don't know what Littlfinger has done regarding tilting the Riverlands. And no he doesn't need to marry the Freys to get them on his side the crown will demand the Frey work with Littlefinger and they will comply cause the crown cares more about Littlfinger than the Freys.

3. All Walder did was stomp on the Starks and Tullys for a little while they are still very much alive FYI.

And no it's winter and as we see in the North those 2000 Greys and Frey men that Walder sent forth is not doing so good in the north. The Northernmen are doing much better than them and the Freys are dying fast I doubt any of the 2000 will make it back to the Twins.

And no the Freys have no hostages Jaime took those they're all on their way to Casterly Rock.

[The Wolves]

War isn't about being fair or nice to your enemies. It's about winning. 

Than own it.


Don't do those atrocites that society looks down upon to win and than try to distance yourself away from it. Don't try to throw a few men to take the blame when it's you who orchestrated it. Don't try to justify it with words or the idea that you're saving thousands of lives.

It's funny how man like Tywin, and the Freys are all throwing out excuses and blame on who is the cause of the RW. Tywin blamed the Freys and than justified it by using the excuse of saving lives. The Freys tried to justifie it by saying that Robb betrayed them yet none of them have owned what they did to "win" but what else would you expect from a monster and a house of cowards?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Than own it.
 

 

What do you expect him to do?

 

Tywin and the Lannisters did not participate in the Red Wedding, they certainly benefited from it but guest rights has nothing to do with people not hosts or guests.

 

The Crown has owned it, they have made Roose the Warden of the North and gave Riverrun to the Freys. What more do you want them to do?

[HappilyEverAfter]

1. There are men roaming the Riverlands who know Riverrun inside and out of the castle plus I doubt the Freys are going to hold Riverrun anytime soon.

2. We don't know what Littlfinger has done regarding tilting the Riverlands. And no he doesn't need to marry the Freys to get them on his side the crown will demand the Frey work with Littlefinger and they will comply cause the crown cares more about Littlfinger than the Freys.

3. All Walder did was stomp on the Starks and Tullys for a little while they are still very much alive FYI.

And no it's winter and as we see in the North those 2000 Greys and Frey men that Walder sent forth is not doing so good in the north. The Northernmen are doing much better than them and the Freys are dying fast I doubt any of the 2000 will make it back to the Twins.

And no the Freys have no hostages Jaime took those they're all on their way to Casterly Rock.

1. Excellent. You know Riverrun inside out. Which would help if it didn't turn into an island when attacked. And the Freys already have Riverrun.

2. Nothing? It's war torn when he gets it and when the war's over he's in the Vale, trying to solidify his claim. He's shown no interest in the Riverlands or Harrenhal beyond its title. And even if the Crown sends an army to Walder and tells them to help Littlefinger, Walder's not going to try very hard and make excuses, so Littlefinger needs to solidify his relationship with his most powerful vassal, like the Tyrells and Martells do. The Freys are rich so he can't give them money, so he needs to marry them if he doesn't want to be the victim of the next Red Wedding.

3. And I'd hardly call ending the line of Starks that aren't puppets, making Catelyn and most of her issue dead, while taking the ancestral home of the Tullys for their own and killing most of the bannermen if the two houses 'stomping on the Starks and Tullys for a little while. Oh, and he's also got 2000 Frey men with a numerous Bolton host in the heavily weakened North who have subdued rebellion there for the most part.

And the captives are being sent to one of the strongest fortresses in Planetos with a heavy guard.

Yes, us readers know that things are going badly in the North, all of the Freys will probably die and the captives of the Red Wedding will be intercepted but Walder Frey doesn't. From where he's standing, he's come out of the WOTFK a winner.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

I'm one of those who believes that the RW was a long term mistake, but was a short term victory. 

 

One thing, I think Tywin is evil and a monster.  I think he's the #1 non-psycho villain of the series.  But I don't hate him, I just know that he's evil.  But I really do understand that he pushes utilitarian and Machiavellian thinking to the maximum. 

 

I'd like to address the idea that war is not about being fair and nice.  I generally agree with that, but it's far more complex.  Strategy, good strategy, is more than about winning a single battle, or even a single war.  It's about winning all of them.  When you set up rules of warfare, that are meant to limit the amount of collateral destruction to people or land, and then break them in the name of victory, then you continually open yourself up to reprisals of the same kind from your next enemy.  And there will always be a next enemy. 

 

When the Germans use gas on the western front, and do so in order to achieve a victory, save the life of their soldiers, and possibly win the war and end the death of even the enemy's soldiers, they do so without the thought that this then opens them up to suffering gas attacks from their enemies, in this war or in a later war.  The British and French are going to say "why should we not gas the Germans?  They gas us!". 

 

When the Lannister's okayed the RW, they opened themselves up to repercussions from not just their present enemies, but all enemies in the future.  You can see this occurring in how TBWB is hunting down members of the Freys and Lannister soldiers they can find.  You can see it in how the North, despite losing, refuses to honor their enemies.  They have no respect for them because they broke the rules, hence the peace is tenuous. 

 

I honestly believe that Tywin Lannister knew most of this.  That is why he distanced himself as much as he could.  Same thing he did with the way Elia and her children were killed.  I believe that what Tywin was thinking, was that as long as he was alive, he was smarter than his enemies and could eventually deal with problems as they arose.  I generally agree with him.  I think that as long as Tywin was around and in control, the Lannisters always had the upper hand.  But that was the weakness of Tywin's strategy.  He constantly talked about his legacy, but never really understood that he was going to die eventually, and that generations of Lannisters would have to do without him. 

[Lord Ravenstark]

Tywin was not nearly as smart as people make him look like. Events like RW always come back to haunt you.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Tywin was not nearly as smart as people make him look like. Events like RW always come back to haunt you.

 

Really?

 

Can you give examples?

[Lord Ravenstark]

 
Really?
 
Can you give examples?

His battle strategies of dividing the army was not really smart, unless they can move really fast. I don't see any railroad in the iron throne.

And that is just one example.


We all can see the effects of the RW.

[Knight of the Teabags]

Tywin was not nearly as smart as people make him look like. Events like RW always come back to haunt you.

 

Not if like Tywin you are murdered (by incidently someone whose motives are entirely unrelated to the Red Wedding) long before the 'haunting' starts.

 

I think that is the question that everybody is skating around here is not whether the RW made the North eternally ungovernable by the Iron Throne but whether if Tywin Lannister had not been murdered whether things would have got as bad for the Lannisters' proxies in the North as they have done in the real storyline where he takes a crossbow bolt on the 'john'? Because things unraveling in the North and elsewhere in Westeros have something of a connection to certain decisions Cersai makes in the power vacuum left by her father's death.

 

Such as Lannister hostage management in the post-Tywinnic era. I do wonder whether Tywin might just have managed the Northern Hostages which were holding the Northern lords under control better than Cersai. The key one is the release on Ser Wyllis Manderly back to his father Lord Wyman 'Too-Fat-to-sit-on-a-horse' Manderly, because effectively as the plot develops Wyman doesn't really raise a finger against the Boltons and Freys representing Lannister rule in the North until Wyllis is sent home. Lord Wyman pretty much admits to Davos his first concern is getting his son and heir back, once Wyllis is back safe in Whitehabor however his father is perfectly happy to get out his oven gloves and start baking Frey pie. Would Tywin as readily have released as important a hostage as Ser Wyllis Manderly who was ensuring the good behaviour of one of the most powerful bannermen in the North?   

[Knight of the Teabags]

Tywin was not nearly as smart as people make him look like. Events like RW always come back to haunt you.

 

Not if like Tywin you are murdered (by incidently someone whose motives are entirely unrelated to the Red Wedding) long before the 'haunting' starts.

 

I think that is the question that everybody is skating around here is not whether the RW made the North eternally ungovernable by the Iron Throne but whether if Tywin Lannister had not been murdered whether things would have got as bad for the Lannisters' proxies in the North as they have done in the real storyline where he takes a crossbow bolt on the 'john'? Because things unraveling in the North and elsewhere in Westeros have something of a connection to certain decisions Cersai makes in the power vacuum left by her father's death.

 

Such as Lannister hostage management in the post-Tywinnic era. I do wonder whether Tywin might just have managed the Northern Hostages which were holding the Northern lords under control better than Cersai. The key one is the release on Ser Wyllis Manderly back to his father Lord Wyman 'Too-Fat-to-sit-on-a-horse' Manderly, because effectively as the plot develops Wyman doesn't really raise a finger against the Boltons and Freys representing Lannister rule in the North until Wyllis is sent home. Lord Wyman pretty much admits to Davos his first concern is getting his son and heir back, once Wyllis is back safe in Whitehabor however his father is perfectly happy to get out his oven gloves and start baking Frey pie. Would Tywin as readily have released as an important a hostage as Ser Wyllis Manderly who was ensuring the good behaviour of one of the most powerful bannermen?   

 

[Raving Stark the Mad]

Tywin was not nearly as smart as people make him look like. Events like RW always come back to haunt you.

I don't think he was JLA Batman smart, but he was smart enough to come out ahead most of the time, and keep his hands as clean as possible.  He was pretty smart.  But he was even more ruthless and unscrupulous. 

[Raving Stark the Mad]

 

Such as Lannister hostage management in the post-Tywinnic era. I do wonder whether Tywin might just have managed the Northern Hostages which were holding the Northern lords under control better than Cersai. The key one is the release on Ser Wyllis Manderly back to his father Lord Wyman 'Too-Fat-to-sit-on-a-horse' Manderly, because effectively as the plot develops Wyman doesn't really raise a finger against the Boltons and Freys representing Lannister rule in the North until Wyllis is sent home. Lord Wyman pretty much admits to Davos his first concern is getting his son and heir back, once Wyllis is back safe in Whitehabor however his father is perfectly happy to get out his oven gloves and start baking Frey pie. Would Tywin as readily have released as an important a hostage as Ser Wyllis Manderly who was ensuring the good behaviour of one of the most powerful bannermen?   

 

I believe it was Tywin who let Ser Wyllis go.  That was the deal Tywin made with Wyman.  So the entire piece of evidence is invalid. 

 

 

I think that is the question that everybody is skating around here is not whether the RW made the North eternally ungovernable by the Iron Throne but whether if Tywin Lannister had not been murdered whether things would have got as bad for the Lannisters' proxies in the North as they have done in the real storyline

I think it should be undoubted that the Lannisters would be better off with Tywin alive, rather than Cersei or even Kevan at the helm.  But the whole point is that Tywin shouldn't be making moves under the assumption that he's always going to be around to cover the Lannister asses.  One entire point of view in the debate is that the Red Wedding was a LONG term mistake, despite it's short term successes.  Part of that mistake is that the individual who gave the green light, Tywin Lannister, did not foresee how things would change after his eventual death, or even plan for a sudden death. 

[Lord Ravenstark]

I don't think he was JLA Batman smart, but he was smart enough to come out ahead most of the time, and keep his hands as clean as possible.  He was pretty smart.  But he was even more ruthless and unscrupulous. 

Oh no, he was Batman smart. I don't know if you know, but Batman and Sherlock Holmes and any other detective are not really smart… they are plot smart. Their plans only work because the universe bends itself so much around them that they don't even bother to make alternative plans, failsafes, et cetera.