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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. I guess there’s still a chance we are Korea and not France in that graph! Good link.
  2. Agreed, but it’s still the best data we have. Daily new cases is even more flawed given testing limitations and inconsistencies.
  3. The data I didn’t like was the Ontario daily new cases data. It looked like the same pattern we’ve seen in Europe. I certainly am hoping to be completely wrong!
  4. I can see the Provinces and the Feds going even more draconian after this weekend. The latest Canadian data isn't overly promising - it looks eerily like a Euro trajectory.
  5. Yes but this was a rather large re-classification of nursing home deaths - representing more than half of the reported fatalities. From what I’m reading anyway!
  6. Fact checking required on that French fatalities data. Most of them seem to be unreported deaths from earlier.
  7. Maybe slightly lost in the current news environment but: we are about to (finally) see an end to the Pell legal battle. I have been very conflicted on this case from the beginning and, whichever way the HCA goes, I'm not sure I'll ever feel great about it. On the one hand I have a very strong sense of pride that Australia is one of only a select few jurisdictions to prosecute a high-ranking cleric for child sex offences. It shows that nobody is above the law in this country, even when they are in the Pope's inner circle and can get character references from ex-PMs. I'm also pleased that the Court revoked his bail and didn't allow house arrest or any other arrangement. He's been in jail for over a year now and I am not aware that he has received better treatment than any other convicted sex offender. On the other hand, there is a reason why we had a dissenting judgement at the Victorian Court of Appeal. There are undoubtedly a few issues with the Crown's case. And I want our justice system to be completely and utterly free from bias (at least insofar as this is ever possible!) So let's see what the Full Bench of the HCA says.
  8. That's super annoying. I've been on the running bandwagon given gym closures. Generally doing around 6 km in 35 mins. Goal is to get below 30 before too long. I'm recovering from a torn MCL so can't push it too hard yet...
  9. I'm not convinced about the masks personally (though of course I'm no expert!) I think the success (hitherto) of countries like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan is more down to: Taking the virus very seriously from the get go (c.f. USA) Rapidly rolling out testing and "seek and isolate" programs Having populations that are respectful of social distancing rules Haha. That will go down well in WA. There is nothing West Aussies like more than creating a clear divide with the "Eastern States".
  10. Ah sorry, I was looking at NSW only. But even 300/day is good going compared to most other Western countries.
  11. Brings to mind Friedman's line: "We are all Keynesians now".
  12. Pretty good health data coming out of Australia compared to other jurisdictions. Who knows if the warmer weather is helping, but to be in a situation of only 100 new cases per day (as of yesterday) is cause for optimism. Canada is tracking over 1000+ a day at this point.
  13. There’s also the argument that a rapid ramp up in health care capacity will let us deal somewhat better with a spike - so a delayed spike is better than no change at at all.
  14. I was simply citing the current data as evidence for stabilization. I am not declaring a peak for Italy, though of course, it's possible the peak has been reached if the national lockdown works in the manner hoped. As a Calabrese by ancestry, I am well aware of deficiencies in public health services in the Mezzagiorno.
  15. There is some evidence of stabilization of new cases and fatalities/day across some of the nations with the most reported cases: Italy: Peak fatalities of 919 on March 27, currently at 727. Peak new cases of 6,557 on March 21, currently at 4,782. Spain: Peak fatalities of 913 on March 30, currently at 598. Peak new cases of 8,271 on March 26, currently at 6,213. Germany: Peak fatalities of 130 yesterday, today at 73 (which is the lowest daily number for a week or so). Peak new cases of 6,993 on March 27, currently at 3,946. France, US and the UK are of course some way off peaking on both these measures.
  16. Delaying the peak I guess is still a worthy goal if it allows the health care system to adapt. Perhaps the Nordics are more confident in their systems with more wealth and a smaller population.
  17. I'm guessing Quebec is at a unique disadvantage with inbound citizens/residents returning from both Europe and the US. The rest of the country is probably mainly dealing with US returnees only. Canada overall coping well though, with less fatalities across the entire country than Georgia or Louisiana on their own.
  18. Italy has recorded its lowest number of new cases in nearly two weeks. It is possible therefore that Italy is reaching its peak number of fatalities/day (at least for this first wave). ETA: Deleting references to Spanish data that was incorrect.
  19. I’m can stay here until June 2021. What is not entirely clear is if Canada would let me back in if I returned home for any reason. At this stage I’m staying put!
  20. I really feel for Aussies (and others) stuck on cruise ships around the world. Must be very stressful. And unfortunately it’s just not a priority to repatriate them when the world is facing a global crisis.
  21. Yeah this kind of benchmarking has helped me a lot. For example, I feel comfortable concluding that Germany is having more luck/better response in dealing with the virus than its European counterparts. The evidence is that, two weeks after its 10th death, Germany is experiencing a daily fatalities growth rate of around 25%. At the same stage, Italy and Spain had growth rates in the mid 30s. Without seeing that analysis, I was wondering whether Germany would have the same trajectory as its neighbours.
  22. Across the board was intended to mean “across countries which have confirmed fatalities over 100” (for the fatalaties data) or "cases over 5,000" for the new cases data. ETA: Worth looking at the FT website for a more fulsome look at the stats. ETA: Correction of who was in the FT sample.
  23. Amid the devastating absolute numbers, it's worth noting that the rates of growth in cases and deaths are starting to slow almost across the board. The Financial Times ran some good charts on this today. South Korea is clearly the star pupil so far: nearly five weeks since the 10th death and they have already managed to get their fatalities growth rate to well below 10%/day. Italy is now at around 10%, but peaked at around 40% (S Korea never went above 20%). The big question now is around further waves and the effects of relaxing lockdowns.
  24. Canada now reporting around 1,000 new cases daily. I wonder whether the timing really hurt us - had the US border closed a week or so before Spring Break (rather than during) then we could be at a much lower rate of new cases. Plus far fewer people would be caught on cruises, which must be pretty chaotic and stressful.
  25. !! Nice to have you back. The last Ashes was not the same without you here.
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