Rose of Red Lake

I dont know why our theories can't co-exist. I'm saying they won't follow the Targaryen without dragons, you're saying they won't follow the one with dragons. I'm in agreement they won't follow Dany either. It's looking like Dorne is turning against House Targaryen entirely, whether pretender or not. What the hell is Arianne going to do when she inevitably finds out JonCon wants to ally with Dany? Oh I can guess...tell these guys NOPE you dont get Dorne.

Arianne sailing to Ghost Hill on the Peregrine (Pippin) suggests a growth arc for her. She starts off foolish and becomes smarter like her parallel character Sansa. Its in her best interests to sit this one out because Jon Con is being duped and Arianne is fully capable of being smarter than him and seeing through the lies where he cannot. We're all in agreement that Aegon's is a losing cause eventually and Arianne can see that already.

I would also add - 

Aegon met Tyrion and his plans changed 360 degrees over a game of cyvasse.

Aegon meets Arianne and his plans will probably change 360 again.

So am I the only one out of the whole 45 pages who is sticking up for Arianne here? She's not C-list character. She's the key to Dorne like Sansa is key to the North. She has autonomy to decide Aegon's fate and therefore holds more soft power than he does. And he's not entitled to her. He isn't Daeron the Good to her Mariah Martell. He's more like the Young Dragon (Young Griffin). Daeron the Good is more like Jon who marries outside the Targaryen line to unite the kingdoms. He is the one who will bring the North and Dorne into the fold tactfully, rather than stupidly, like how JonCon is doing (JonCon is being duped too).

10 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Yeah Aegon's cast is C tier, including Arianne, this is why she and Dorne basically exist. As I explained GRRM meticulously cultivated the story so that Dany and dragons would become a non-factor to Dorne at the time of deciding if they'll back Aegon or not, but you'll throw out all that work because it doesn't fit with what you want Arianne to be and do.

My theory ties into Dornish history and everything GRRM writes about in Fire and Blood (Part I and soon to be Part II), so I'm not really persuaded by anything you've said.

Arianne is our window into the Dornish POV which has played a significant role in being a thorn in the side of Targaryens. Aegon showed up 2 seconds ago and he's not going to win Dorne lickety-split.

Its a better story when Arianne is caught between Aegon, the crown, and Dany and she's trying to walk a tightrope between all three. It's a worse story when she's a gullible bimbo and happily marching along with Aegon and drinking the JonCon coolaid.

Arianne's resistance makes this an interesting problem for Aegon's crew. Bringing up the raiders in the sea of Dorne pushes this storyline even further south, where Aegon will likely attempt to win Dorne by playing hero and saving the day. This is also a parallel with Dany trying to do the same thing for the North. I think both Targaryens will encounter resistance from the heirs to their respective kingdoms, to their frustration.

3 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The story on the way to Dorne is that Dany is dead or lost, and when she was not she had no interest in Dorne but had her own battles on the other side of the world. Her dragons are riderless and wild, and on the other side of the world. The doubts about the GC fade as they succeed, they've taken Storm's End in a blink, they're going to roll over their enemies in their first pitched battle, they're going to have 'friends' no-one supposed and Aegon is the HS's answer to the mess in KL.

Characters change, including how they think due to events and to new information. A story in which things do not changed is not a story. GRRM only made sceptics out of Doran (Arianne isn't really) so that he may placate him. He has at hand all the ducks in a row. This is why Quentyn's failed adventure happened. Why Arianne is a sex bomb almost simpleton.

I don't think Aegon will get a single Great House to join him, because I think the author is saving that for the actual son of Rhaegar. 

Aegon gets minor houses, smallfolk, and bastards like the Sand Snakes. It's just the way his story is written. Everyone in his cast is a C-rate character.

I think you underestimate Arianne's intelligence to read people. You're basically calling her a bimbo? If that's all you're seeing in her POV, no wonder you're missing a lot of the warning signs. At the moment, she's smarter than Dany because she doesn't trust sellswords.

And she shouldn't because Aegon is ALL ILLUSION.

She can see through plots and machinations because she plans her own. Her father checked her on that and now she's trying to live up to his wishes, because he actually told her about his plans for her (for once). She's empowered now because she's the heir to Dorne, and she has responsibilities to that end to not draw her country into a war they have a shit chance of winning. Because they DO have a shit chance when Dany shows up. Arianne can put 2+2 together that a pretender arriving in Westeros with a Targaryen name WITHOUT DANY will piss Dany off.

14 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

They change their thinking because the GC continues to win and court more allies. By parts of the reach turning cloak for them. By defeating their enemies in the field. By the Faith supporting them. All those things aligning that you didn't provide answers for isn't by accident, so many things pushing in the same direction, GRRM has moved mountains to make it happen.

Dorne under Martell rule doesn't exactly go with the flow of what the other kingdoms are doing. They never quickly go along with what a Targaryen demands. Jon Con feels entitled to Dorne and it would be just like GRRM to deny him that right now. Highgarden and Dorne hate each other so whatever they do isn't really sign that Dorne will follow suit. Doran is a skeptic while everyone else falls for the populist b.s. He knows the only way he can win all 7 kingdoms is with dragons, which he is waiting for. Arianne brings up all the failed GC escapades, and she's right. Plus they're treating the heir to Dorne like a captive - it's like she's walked into a trap. Arianne says she doesn't trust them because they're sellswords. As well she should. fAegon has hubris written all over him and I bet Arianne will see this. They have no proof that he's Elia's. Doran wants proof and dragons, and he told Arianne only to send him word of what she knows to be TRUE. She can't know that it's TRUE.

It's way too much skepticism to overcome. But like I said Aegon still might get Dorne if Arianne and Doran are betrayed by the Sand Snakes, for instance. I just dont see it happening through the Martell family.

1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

So what was the point of Quentyn if not to turn Dorne from Dany to Aegon? Do you not think GRRM gave JC greyscale to explain why team Aegon didn't team up with Dany? Why do you think Arianne who was willing to crown Myrcella with basically no support would think Aegon is a hopeless cause? Why is JC strangely fixated with having Dorne's support? Do you think there's nothing in GRRM having set up in the minds of both JC and Arianne that the taking of Storm's End would be a big deal and proof of competency? Do you think "Friends in the Reach" is not going to factor into the impending battle? After having built up the GC as the professional fighting force in all of planetos, with elephants, do you think they're going to lose their first real battle in the series? 

Doran said that a sellsword company has no chance in winning ALL seven kingdoms and Arianne backs him up on it, so how do they completely change their thinking on this?  Doran and Arianne know that Aegon lacks dragons. Arianne wasn't wowed by the taking of Storm's End. Arianne reminded me of Catelyn at Bitterbridge. They're the knights of summer and Dorne wants dragons, which Aegon doesnt have. I think Doran and Arianne will be betrayed by their own people because they continue to kneel to the crown, and refuse this alliance.

I just read Arianne I & II - sorry if this has already been discussed, but I was surprised by how Arianne was forced to go to Storm's End. She's sort of their hostage now, even though she agreed to go, it's really not a way to treat an invited guest. I got an ominous vibe like it's a trap.

I had heard a lot of fandom theories about how she would be seducing Aegon to get him to marry her, but I dont really see that happening now that I read the chapters. I think she sees Aegon's cause as hopeless because he doesnt have dragons. Her point about the GC losing every battle on Westeros soil was sobering. Doran is also unimpressed.

I don't see any parallels to Rhaenrya/Aegon here - really doubt Aegon vs. Dany is the big Dance of Dragons 2.0.

Teora sounds like Shireen, "the dragons are coming to eat me."

Arianne declining to read the history of Ghost Hill sounds like a bad move. Tyrion would take up that offer and learn something useful. Arianne has created a blindspot for herself.

Teora's line does make me wonder if Aegon will move on from Storm's End and to try and conquer Dorne. 

I could see him attempting this; he's got enough arrogance like the Young Dragon. Meanwhile as he's marching, Aegon uses Arianne for intel. It would get dark from there; she might be in Sansa or Asha's position as a captive who has to seduce her way out of a delicate situation. She'd be doing that without trying to bring Aegon or Cersei's wrath down on Dorne.

It may be all for naught though if Dany shows up. It would be doubly ironic if the Martells finally get their "dragons" that they always wanted but because Aegon is attempting to conquer Dorne, Dany sets fire to the one place they were trying to protect.