Gilbert Green

2 hours ago, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

Ned would protect Lyannas son, true, but wouldn´t he do the same for his own ? Or for the son of anyone else he cares about ?

He would even protect Jaime and Cersei's children.

2 hours ago, Him of Many Faces said:

Because no coherent timeline is given in the novels.

That's not why.  A timeline has been created, on this very forum, that dispense with the requirement that Jon Snow be born at the time of the TOJ battle.

Long before that, timelines had been constructed for the events of the main series.

Timelines are inherently speculative, but that never stopped fans before.

2 hours ago, Him of Many Faces said:

I don't think people with more exotic interpretations should leave the conversation, but ...

Seems to me that you absolutely do believe that.

2 hours ago, Him of Many Faces said:

... but I do believe in the reminder that ASoIaF is a series of novels, literature. It should be analyzed as such. When making up assumptions and theories about the text, one should not forget how they would change the meaning of the story or character actions along the way. Ned Starks' relationship with Robert in AGoT is directly affected by Jon being his sister's and Rhaegar's child. They had a fallout of the murder of Rhaegar's children. They reconciliated over Lyanna's death. The old rift over killing children resurfaces when Dany gets pregnant and Robert wants to kill her child (and her). Ned was right to keep Lyanna's child identity hidden because Robert didn't change, he was still okay with the murder of kids as seen by his furious reaction to the news about Dany. And when Ned finds out about Cersei's incest he will try to save the kids again because he correctly assumes Robert would kill them - why wouldn't he think that after Robert's reaction to previous child murders. Making Ned's flashbacks and dreams mean something different than R+L=J would change the entire narrative that we are given from Ned's POV. Like I said, R+L=J is the key to Ned Stark's behavior and relationship with Robert, it really isn't important to Jon as of yet in the story.

All you are doing here is playing connect-the-dots, and filling in the blanks to create one intriguing and plausible scenario.

But GRRM has left us alot of dots.  We can connect the dots in different ways.  And come up with different scenarios.

Ned can be plagued by guilt and regret over his promise to Lyanna even if Lyanna's child is someone other than Jon.  In fact that could potentially make even more sense, since Jon is kinda safe, at least from King Robert.

On 1/10/2024 at 7:38 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

Not so much theories, but every 'What if' post.

• What if Robb had marched south?
• What if Renly had survived?
• What if Tyrion had been a cyborg?
• What if Ned had sideburns?

Cue 10,000 replies. Ugh.

The nice thing about most "what if" threads, is that most are clearly labeled.  They don't interest me so I avoid them.

2 hours ago, Him of Many Faces said:

I don't agree. I see it as a solvable mystery in the first book. And it's far more relevant to Ned than it is to Jon. By understanding the blue winter rose dreams and flashbacks, we understand his relationship with Robert on the issue of child murder and why he felt the need to warn Cersei. By understanding that the honorable Ned swallowed his honor and pride and promised to raise Jon as his own (to save a child from murder) we understand why he will lie about the coup in front of the sept of Baelor (to save another child, Sansa, from murder). This is why I dismiss every alternative to Jon's parentage, because they will not align with Ned Stark's character arc in AGoT. 

Yes, we know Ned's character would cause him to protect children.  One can devise more than one possibility that is consistent with Ned's character.  Because Ned plausibly would have protected any child.  Not just Jon.  And bringing the child home and calling it your own child is not necessarily the best strategy.  It would depend on the features of the child.  So this is in effect a circular argument that starts and ends with the assumption that the child born at the TOJ was Jon.

Again, I think R+L=J is a good theory.  I just don't think other theorists should be forced to shut up and go away.

Also I don't think the standard version of R=L=J is correct.  Jon is probably too old to have been born at the time of the fight at the TOJ.  If he was born to Lyanna and Rhaegar, he was born earlier in the abduction; which also leaves room for the TOJ fight to have occurred later.

There's a reason fans have never been able to come up with a coherent timeline of Robert's Rebellion.  They can't make it fit their fave theory.  And rather than deal with the issue, they employ various stratagems to drive their adversaries off and/or make them shut up.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Most fans have, but you still come across pockets of resistance, so to speak. Some genuinely don't buy it/don't see it, like my mum. To be fair, she loves the books but is a casual reader; she's certain Jon is the son of Lyanna and Robert!  And no matter how many times I try to explain why it doesn't work, all I get from her is a dismissive waving of the hand as she walks away. And this has been going on since she first read the books some 15 years ago or so.

But there's another group of fans as well... readers who really, really want to solve something that hasn't been solved yet- in ~ 30 years! And they really want to be the one person who found that one mysterious clue that no one has seen or understood in all this time. And the issue here is, the mysteries that haven't been solved yet remain mysteries b/c Martin hasn't provided the clues needed to solve them, and not because no one has been able to find said clues apart from the one reader. It's special snowflake syndrome and thankfully this latter group is much smaller than the former.

"Pockets of resistance".  You make it sound so political.  And I think the RLJ Truthers and other Strident Theory Bullies really do think that way.  It is all about dominance and submission.

As if new fans should not be allowed enjoy the books for themselves or to think for themselves.  And you want to insult them and call them special snowflake.

You seem to have trouble accepting that others have read the books as well.

12 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

It's only on this forum that I've seen people questioning Jon's parentage, on other forums it's recognized as an established fact.

I doubt you've done a scientific survey.  But it does not matter. Unless these other people, on these other forums, have inside information, it is irrational to appeal to what they think.

The books say that Ned is Jon's father; and only the identity of the mother is a mystery.  I'm not saying we can't question the text.  Lot's of decent theories give due consideration to the possibility that the text may mislead at times.

1 hour ago, Him of Many Faces said:

Jon being Lyanna's and Rhaegar's son is a matter of reading comprehension to me. I think the fandom should have long time ago (like decades ago) accepted that as a stone carved fact and moved on from bringing up alternatives. 

It is a good theory.  I more or less subscribe to it myself.  But it is a theory.

A fan consensus is nothing more than a curious phenomenon.   One that becomes particularly curious when it is motivated to silence dissenting voices.

Why on earth should it bother you that others think differently? 

On 1/10/2024 at 7:26 AM, Him of Many Faces said:

For me, it would be any of the A+ B = C theories regarding parentage.

So you oppose R-L=J?

Or only Ashara + Brandon = Cersei; and combos like that.

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

So, whaddaya think, should we start posting how many of the most hated theories we see in this list are theories that we subscribe to?

I subscribe to, or am at least intrigued by, many hated theories.  Some have been mentioned in this thread.  Others have not been mentioned ... yet.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I do it just now, lol. The Hand is the highest royal official and the lieutenant of the king in his absence and incapacitation. In now treatise on statecraft and law would such a person be described as an 'agent'.

Why not?  What you describe is 100% consistent with the principles of Agency.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is like saying the British Prime Minister is an agent of the king.

It is not even remotely like that.  Westeros is not a constitutional monarchy.  The King can appoint and dismiss his Hand at will, just as I can hire and fire my lawyer at will.

Not so with the current PM of Britain.  So yeah.  Partly for that reason, and no doubt for other reasons, the PM of Britain cannot be called an agent of the King.

However, it might be more to the point to remember that the Hand of the King is the King's SUBJECT, just as Arianne is the SUBJECT of Prince Doran Martell.  Not to mention that she is his daughter.  That's two reasons why, normally, she would normally be thought to owe him loyalty and obedience.  A duty that will continue even after he removes her from whatever position of trust he has appointed her to.

This is morphing from a discussion about theories we hate into a discussion about people we hate.

11 hours ago, James Steller said:

I hate any theory which vindicates Bloodraven and Rhaegar (and possibly Lyanna) for their actions. 

That also goes in the Opinion-Not-Theory category.  Even if future books reveal that they murdered countless babies in blood magic rituals, some people will still defend them.

But "Rhaegar and Lyanna murdered babies in blood magic rituals" could actually be a theory, capable of being proven right or wrong if the series is ever finished.

Poor George.  No wonder he can't finish the story.  He tunes in and sees haters hating what he has planned.

12 hours ago, Aldarion said:

"Person X is really Aegon VI".

Look, if Rhaegar's Aegon somehow survived, there is no reason for Young Griff to not be exactly who he and his caretakers claim he is. But Aegon is most likely dead, and if YG isn't Rhaegar's son, then Rhaegar's Aegon should stay dead.

There are reasons to suspect Aegon is alive.  The HOTU prophesy, for instance.  There are also reasons to suspect that Young Griff is not Aegon.

It is possible that the clues on one side are clues, and the clues on the other are red herrings.  But it also could well be that both propositions are true.

That Aegon SHOULD be dead, if he is not Young Griff, is merely an opinion. 

Not sure why we should rule out the third option.   Or why the third option should be deserving of hate.

12 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And tied with it is the "X person is mad" theory, but since most of those posts are actually troll posts, I am not sure it counts?

I don't count them because they will never be proven right or wrong, even if GRRM finishes the series.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, what? The Hand has led the armies of the king in more than one occasion. And, again, in the king's absence he is effectively the king himself.

There is no theory there. Arianne is told to gather information on Aegon and then decide by herself if the guy is the one they should go to war with or not. And she acts independently from Doran there, as his heir and successor.

LOL, that isn't a theory, it is nonsense. If Lemore was Doran's agent then he wouldn't have sent Arianne to the Stormlands as this mission puts her in considerable danger. She could be captured or she could be killed. Not to mention that it would be completely pointless.

Also, if Doran knew about Aegon he would have *never* sent Quentyn to Dany.

If you want to theorize, do actually read the books.

Reread the books. Arianne never conspired against her father specifically, she wanted to implement a plan to avenge House Martell on the Lannisters because she believed her father was to weak to do it. She was also partially motivated by her wrong assumption that her father wanted to disown her in favor of Quentyn ... but they got over both of those issues. It wasn't her house arrest that changed her mind but the subsequent revelation about Doran's plans with Oberyn, the old marriage pact between her and Viserys III, and the Quentyn mission.

Arianne Martell is Doran's eldest child and anointed heir. He wants her to succeed him. And they both want the best for Dorne. They are on the same page.

The Hand of the King is the King's agent.  LOL all you want.

Arianne was asked to act on Doran's behalf, not on her own behalf.  There's a difference.

Agents must inevitably exercise judgment, because they rarely have their principals sitting on their shoulders telling them exactly what to do.  Nonetheless, the distinction matters.  An agent who knowingly acts contrary to his principals wishes, betrays his principal.

Arianne DID in the past conspire against her father's wishes.  She acted on what she wanted; not on what he wanted.  That's the difference.  I guess when you say she wasn't conspiring against him, you merely mean she was not plotting to murder or usurp him, which is true enough.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I think for this thread maybe it would be better to get past the question of IF Myrcella will ever be queen and focus on the HOW.

IF remains an open question we can’t answer. But looking at the how of it all makes for much more speculative fun when you just assume she will be queen, however briefly. You can, after all, never come up with good scenarios for how she becomes queen if you assume she will not.
The pieces are moving on the board.

Myrcella is in transit. she could be held up indefinitely in Dorne. She could be captured on the road just as Cersei had planned, but by different people. She could be captured at sea by Aurane Waters in the Stepstones, or by the Redwyne fleet going from Dragonstone to Oldtown. She could just as easily be captured by the Golden Company, who also have plenty of boats and just arrived. She could even, miraculously, make it back to KL safely though I would not bet on it.

Reach armies are in KL awaiting Margaery’s trial. If the trial goes badly, those armies will attack the Sparrows and Faith Millitant. What a mess. If the trial result is more favourable for Margaery then the armies will leave for Storm’s End, and the Faith will largely control KL. Predicament for Cersei.

Euron controls the Shield Islands, and so the Mander. Willas has gathered an army that he can’t move because Cersei refused him ships. An attack on Oldtown is imminent, and the Redwyne fleet may not arrive in time to help. Nor, it seems, will Willas Tyrell. Once Oldtown falls, which seems likely, everything along the Honeywine will also be vulnerable to Ironborn raids.

Stomlands armies are busy defending the Stormlands against the Golden Company. Only Dorne and the Vale are relatively unoccupied and theoretically available to help the Reach, but their leaders may have other plans.

I question many of these assumptions, even if you deem it better that I not.

- I doubt very much that Myrcella is going to be queened, then killed.  I think she has already been queened and killed.

- I doubt very much that Myrcella is in transit, unless you mean her corpse.  I think Rosamund is in transit.

- I doubt very much that Cersei plans to attack Myrcella's entourage.  I think Doran lied to inflame the Sand Snakes, now that he is ready to give them bloody work.

- I doubt Euron controls the Shields.  I think the Lords of the Shields control the Shields, and Euron has left them to their fate, exactly as he explained to Aeron.

- I doubt there is going to be an attack on Oldtown, still less that it will fall if attacked.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you make somebody your voice they are not 'a field agent'. They speak for you, and their words are your words, even if they say stuff you wouldn't have said.

That concept is very well-known in this world, in fact, with the office of Hand of the King. When the Hand speaks with the King's Voice he is, effectively, the king.

Yes, the Hand of the King is also an agent of the king.  The only reason you would not count him as a "field agent", is because he remains at court and does not venture out into the field.

A person sent abroad to speak for you is often called an "ambassador".  And yes, your ambassadors are also your agents.  It is fair to say that Doran has asked Arianne to be his ambassador.   He also asked her to send a coded message on his behalf.   That's all we know for sure.  Everything else is theory.

How much he truly trusts her is another question.  I would not be surprised if he is just testing her.  I would not be surprised if he has other agents in that company, and some are tasked with keeping tabs on her.   Nor would it surprise me if he has another ambassador with Young Griff.  Such as Lemore?  But that too is only theory.

Is Feathers just a random raven minder?  Or is he also Doran's agent, working directly for Doran?  Dunno.  Feathers (or whoever) may be a backup agent sending backup messages.  And then there are the other members of the company.  Why did Doran choose them, specifically?

I am slightly skeptical of your eagerness to glorify Arianne's newfound Stockholm Syndrome induced Daddy Love, occasioned by her isolation and conditioning in the Tower.  I wonder if a few nights in the sack with a hot dude, and she will not be merrily conspiring against her Dear Old Daddy once again.   And Doran may anticipate this peril and guard against it.  I'm not saying I know one way or the other. 

My personal hunch is that I think Doran would be a fool to trust Arianne.  But of course, I also think that Arianne would be a fool to trust Doran.  Neither seem like particularly admirable people to me.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, now you are just making scenarios up.

Details don't matter.  Granting discretion to your agents in the field is a normal part of war, because you simply cannot micromanage things from 1000 miles away.  And Doran has other agents besides Arianne.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are also kind of acting childish by wanting to ignore that Doran has given Arianne authority to make the decision whether the two Dornish armies should start a war or not.

I never ignored anything.  Arianne was asked to signal "dragon" or "war" to a nearby army, based on her assessment of Aegon's strength.  She was asked to send information.  And he represented, perhaps truthfully, that he had instructed his armies to act immediately on the signal "dragon".

The reason the army is not to wait for Doran's direct command is so he can potentially act more quickly.  Raven flies quicker when it flies direct.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure why you are obsessed with modernistic nonsense talk like 'commander-in-chief'.

I'm not.  What word or phrase would you prefer?  It does not matter.  My point would be the same.  Delegating to subordinates does not mean you are stepping down or relinquishing authority to command.

"be my eyes, my ears, my voice".  Doran is asking Arianne to be his agent.  He's still the principal.  Or, if you prefer, the Prince.

14 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

What I am now wondering in retrospect is why Illyrio didn't make more of an effort to tip Dany off about Aegon when he sent her Barristan. Sure, he was probably hoping she would just come back west with Groleo and he could set things up then, but he didn't give her much of a reason to do it. If he'd said at that point that the Golden Company were standing by, say, she might have been more inclined to accept. I get why he didn't do that while Viserys was alive, or while Dany was "just" Khal Drogo's wife, but once she survived the Red Waste and turned up in the east with her dragons, he should surely have been making every effort to get her back to western Essos and integrate her with his primary plan.

Aegon and Dany should be natural allies, but the actual Targaryen loyalist factions have been operating in almost complete isolation from, and ignorance of, each other, which has created a conflict of interest. And the one person in a position to join the two causes, Illyrio, hasn't taken meaningful steps to do so despite apparently planning for it.

Until he chooses to reveal himself, Young Griff is a secret known only to a few.  You don't just tip people off about things like that.  Not unless you are sure they are on board.

Yes, Dany is a potential ally.  But she is also a potential enemy and rival claimant.

And, other than not prematurely spilling the beans, Illyrio did try to bring Dany on board.  He tried to bring her to Pentos.  An introduction to YG would have surely followed.   His latest plan was for YG to go to her and propose a marriage alliance or other alliance.  She would have been among the first people he would have revealed himself to.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can just stop it here. If Dorne attacks because Arianne's message tells the generals to attack then she - and she alone - will start this war.

Sure.  She.  And she alone.  And the raven.  And Doran, whose instructions she is following.  And the General in the pass.  And all the General's men.  And when Obara massacres Ser Balon Swann and all his men, that too will be an act of war.  And when the Sand Snakes assassinate Tommen, that too will be an act of war.

I get what you're saying about her being a but-for cause of this General's attack.  But that does not make her Commander in Chief.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran Martell can't - and doesn't want to - stop that.

Doran is very nervous.  He wants to strike early and strike hard with maximum surprise.  But the invaders were supposed to bring dragons.  He has heard nothing, so far, about dragons.

Maybe when Arianne finds out how YG captured Storms End, she will be impressed enough to give the okay. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And once fighting starts it will hard to stop.

True.  Which is why he is so nervous.  Should he strike now?  Or delay a little longer?  Until, for instance, someone actually shows up with dragons.

But none of this implies that Arianne is the new Commander in Chief.

She was sent to assess the STRENGTH of YG's invasion.  And if it has dragons, or is otherwise strong enough, she is to signal the army in the pass, who will act on that information.  As per Doran's instructions to them both.

Doran understands the need for speed.  He knows he cannot micromanage every battlefield decision from 1000 miles away.  That is why he has authorized his field agents to signal to each other and act on each other's signals.  It does not mean he is stepping down.  That's just silly.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is that he doesn't want to countermand anything.

Normally one does not countermand one's own orders as they are given.    But of course, one can do so later.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why he gave Arianne the authority she has.

He asked her to send a single raven, with one of two code words.  Assuming he has told her the whole truth, then the armies may take certain actions, or inactions, based on the code-word sent.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

She will decide if and how and with whom Dorne goes to war, not Doran Martell.

With WHOM to go to war????  Depending on the code word sent, the army will either act immediately or continue to wait in the pass.   Awaiting further instructions.  From Doran, presumably.  Because Arianne's instructions do not extend beyond that single raven.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He trusts her to make the right call.

Or maybe he just wants her to think that.  But she might not be the only one he has asked to send ravens.

But assuming he trusts her to send that one raven, it is just that one raven.  It does not mean he has stepped down and made her commander in chief.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If he wanted to make the final decision he would have not have given Arianne the code phrase and he would have told her to send a raven to Sunspear once she made up her mind on Aegon, so he, Doran, could make the final call. But that isn't the case.

The binary choice is one between acting quickly, and continuing to wait.

A raven directly from Arianne will reach them sooner than a round trip through Doran will.  Allowing them to act more quickly.

Granting some decision-making authority to subordinates, during wartime, in the interests of speed, efficiency, and flexibility of action, is simply a normal part of war.   It does not mean you are stepping down as commander in chielf.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess you didn't read the sample chapters?

No.  I read them.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess you didn't read the sample chapters? They confirm that Arianne Martell has been granted authority by her lord father, the Prince of Dorne, to decide what Dorne is going to do with this Aegon situation. She will send back ravens to the two armies in the passes, telling their generals to either stay out of the war or to attack. They even chose code phrases which do ensure that she can't be forced to write anything against her will as the words one would expect her to write if the armies where to attack will tell the generals to do exactly the opposite.

Doran Martell put himself out of the game and ceded authority to decide what Dorne should do to his daughter and heir.

When a leader asks field agents to send signals to each other, it does not mean he is stepping down as commander in chief.

Doran's armies will act on Arianne's signal if he gives them that conditional instruction.  Which he can countermand at any time he is able to reach them with a command.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We also know from George's own mouth that Varys/Illyrio have no clue about the Quentyn-Dany plan nor the original marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell.

Maybe.  But I'm not sure what quote you are referring to.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is an obvious reference to his plans with Dany and Quentyn.

I find it hard to believe he counts those plans as a sure thing.  It is not as though he said that war is not yet upon us because I'm waiting for Quentyn and Dany.

More likely, me means that Myrcella is dead; and that means war with the Iron Throne; and he can't keep her death a secret forever using Rosamund.

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I just think people are acting like Arianne has all the negotiating power when I really am not sure that is true. Aegon's clearly stated goal, and the whole reason he invaded the Stormlands, is to win DANY's hand. So everyone is waiting on word from Quentyn and word of Dany. Noone is rushing to get married, least of all Aegon.

Right.  Her task is basically to observe and report.  She has no more authority to speak on Doran's behalf than perhaps the bare minimum occasioned by time and distance, which prevent Doran from speaking directly on his own behalf. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Guys, if Aegon already had Dorne we wouldn't get an Arianne subplot in her own chapters where she is sent to the Stormlands by her father to determine if Aegon is the real deal and/or if he is it worth it to support him.

This assumes too much.  What Doran chooses to tell the once-traitorous Arianne is not necessarily all there is to know.  All we can really tell from these chapters is that Doran wants Arianne to report back to him. 

And as to the ultimate point of her POV chapters, that's for GRRM to know and us to find out.   And if GRRM is planning to surprise his readers in any way, her POV chapters may be more important for what she does not know than for what she knows.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran and Arianne have their own Daenerys plan involving Quentyn, and until they receive confirmation that this plan is not going to be realized - which will be only when/if word reaches Sunspear that Dany is dead/disappeared and/or that Quentyn is also dead. That should take quite some time.

Doran tells the Sand Snakes that, for reasons he can't explain with too many ears about, "war is already upon us".   He may not think he has the luxury of waiting too long for Dany; or for news of Dany.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, honestly, I think there is small to no chance that Arianne is going to actually buy Aegon's story. If she supports him then because she likes him and what she might be able to accomplish through him, but not because she actually buys this guy is her first cousin.

I'm not so sure of that.  I anticipate that Arianne may notice a distinct family resemblance, that may tend to convince her that he is indeed her cousin.   That's not to say that I think YG is really Aegon.  But he might really be a Martell relative.

11 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Well, Arianne is super hot and brings Dorne with her, as well as being old enough to have kids right away. There is currently no other remotely comparable marriage offer on the table, or even obviously available. The only reason to turn it down is if he's holding out for Daenerys.

Young Griff already has Dorne.  Dorne is scrambling for allies because "war is already upon us".   Doran's wife Mellario is already with Young Griff (as Lemore).

Not saying they won't get married.  But they don't particularly need to.

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I don't see why people take it as a given that Aegon would choose to marry Arianne? Or even that this is Arianne's strategy at all?

They are (supposedly) cousins.  People who are related, but not raised together, often find each-other hot.

And, while I am not sure about marriage, I think some kind of sexual relationship is at least foreshadowed.  I cannot prove that absolutely, because foreshadowing is a vague thing.  But Arianne is not exactly known for her purity and chastity, her last BF got sliced up by Hotah, and she has not found anyone new yet.

Also, GRRM has not done an "accidental incest" story yet (Tolkien once did one that, IIRC, ended in suicide).  He can do it here, since Young Griff was actually born as her brother Quentyn.