Why Balon was right not to ally with Robb

[khalhotpie]

Robb has closer to 10 k men, with a large proportion on horse back

ok then wel say closer to 10k

They strike when hes at riverrun we know then the starks have about 10k foot left unforunatly under old roose who for this we are pretending stays loyal (15k or so before green fork but 5k lost there roughly) and his cavalry is around 6k (not all stark) so wel say around 13k alltogether

the north has around another 10-15 k men it can raise but that will take time and theres riverruns forces but for this wel say they will stay put

Thats 10k foot and 3-4 cavalry to take all the way from riverrun to moat cailin undetected

[khalhotpie]

It's mentioned time and again that Theons ability on a horse is exceedingly rare I'm islanders. They ride mules or not at all. Iirc it took the on time to even find a horse. Can they outfit a strong scout group of competent riders? And decent horses? Was this even part of balons plan?

And the Freys had Lannister men hanging from there walls when we first see them. There lands and Mallister lands are the coast nearest to the ironborn. Once news of invasion of their kingdom (they are part of the north now) comes they will be on high alert

Its mentioned being a good rider is rare yes not that they dont have them, can t use them or cant steal them once they hit land

None of that means scouting cant be done, all we talking is small groups of guys who can dart back to their ships if things get too heavy.

[Waylin Stark]

If Balon was dead set on independence, then allying with Robb was the only logical thing to do.

But it would have been smarter to stay neutral and not declare independence in the first place.

Yeah.

And if he was going to declare independence, he should have stayed quiet like the Vale and Dorne, and when KL is most damaged, he should have wreaked havoc on the Westerlands and the Reach. That would certainly bring down the morale of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, and they'd be too weak to do much about it.

Just like his Greyjoy Rebellion. He should have started when at the end of Robert's Rebellion, when KL was at it's weakest and Robert could have probably granted them independence.

Instead the shithead waited years so that they could recover, and then decided to attack.

I think we should crown him stupidest king ever.

[khalhotpie]

Balon was a fool for not allying with Robb. Had he done that, the Lannister would have suffered more, meaning there were better chances of gaining independence.

It wouldn't have worked, but their chances of succeeding would have been greater.

Balon was too weak to accomplish anything himself, he needed allies.

And Robb was willing.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Especially when both of them wanted independence from the IT.

And attacking the North instead of the Reach or the Westerlands is a bonus stupid move.

attacking the westerlands from the shore means taking lannisport then casterly rock (if they even can take that) before u can hold anything ......they chose the much softer targets north.

the reach is the last enemy anyone should attack period

[Waylin Stark]

attacking the westerlands from the shore means taking lannisport then casterly rock (if they even can take that) before u can hold anything ......they chose the much softer targets north.

the reach is the last enemy anyone should attack period

Yeah, but attacking the North was really stupid.

Why'd he unnecessarily make an enemy of Robb?

Even if he didn't ally with him and decided to go solo, he had no clear reason for attacking the North.

If anything, he was unwittingly helping the Lannisters defeat the Northerners.

And yes, attacking the Reach is dangerous.

The Ironborn are going to get their asses handed to them by Willas and Garlan Tyrell.

[khalhotpie]

Yeah, but attacking the North was really stupid.

Why'd he unnecessarily make an enemy of Robb?

Even if he didn't ally with him and decided to go solo, he had no clear reason for attacking the North.

If anything, he was unwittingly helping the Lannisters defeat the Northerners.

And yes, attacking the Reach is dangerous.

The Ironborn are going to get their asses handed to them by Willas and Garlan Tyrell.

Because he wanted to take land and expand the ironborns power....he chose robb over tywin as the weaker target and may have felt the timber of the north was more valuable to him than the gold of the westerlands.

Add in the castles they took were much much easier to take that casterly rock and lannisport would have been.

possibly but then again we have no clue what euron has planned yet.

Im thinking it has something to do with the wizzards hes captured and 'broke in' , maybe he knew winter was comming and there will be some sort of stormy weather he can use to smash the redwyne fleet leaving the ironborn in control of the seas,

[Minstral]

Because he wanted to take land and expand the ironborns power....he chose robb over tywin as the weaker target and may have felt the timber of the north was more valuable to him than the gold of the westerlands.

Add in the castles they took were much much easier to take that casterly rock and lannisport would have been.

Three castles is just that, three castles. And really, attacking either the North or West are bad choices for their own reasons. As you have unfailing pointed out, they are not likely to take the Rock (Casterly Rock) or the city in its shadow (Lannisport), and the strength of the West is considerable. If given a reprieve from the Wot5K then they could build their own strength at sea, and the proximity of the Westerlands to the Islands is a cause of some concern (though it could offer better logistics for the forces of the Ironmen). With that said, one does not need to look at Casterly Rock to find all the gold, which means there is a better economic reason to raid the West (and the Ironmen are much more interested in gold then you seem to think, they defy Euron on passing on the rich city of Oldtown).

The North is too big. The Attrition rate that Victarion suffered from the Cronnogmen were more then just a nuisance, and the Northmen have a greater degree to outmaneuver Balon's men. And as far as Asha was concerned, going North was a bad idea (she probably never questioned the invasion to his face because it could have gone against her standing as her fathers successor).

And after saying all that, the land forces of the Iron Islands is seemingly inferior to those of the North and West. Tywin's men were amongst the best equipped in the kingdoms and he was renowned for how he drilled them. The battle of Torren's Square indicates an advantage to the North, and Tywin was of the opinion that the soldiers of the North were more effective then those from the Iles ("they will be feasting on octopus by the time of spring").

[HouseHarrison]

It was a big mistake motivated out of petty vengeance towards the family that took his remaining son hostage and "softened" him.

The Iron Throne was never going to grant the Islands autonomy, and indeed had no concern for the Iron Islands. Meanwhile Robb actively sought them as an ally, and making it conditional that the Throne recognize both the North and Iron Islands as free from the realm would have been a realistic demand. It was hardly some big sacrifice for the Iron Throne, the Iron Islands do not come off as especially valuable and indeed often troublesome.

[Northernmonkey]

Meanwhile Robb actively sought them as an ally, and making it conditional that the Throne recognize both the North and Iron Islands as free from the realm would have been a realistic demand.

But here's the thing - what if the Iron throne said to Robb that they'll grant the North independence but not the Iron Islands? Do you really think Robb would say no?

Or what if it happened the other way round? If the Iron Throne offered the Iron islands independence but not the North, Balon would definitely accept straight away.

So in a lot of ways an alliance would have been meaningless.

[khalhotpie]

Three castles is just that, three castles. And really, attacking either the North or West are bad choices for their own reasons. As you have unfailing pointed out, they are not likely to take the Rock (Casterly Rock) or the city in its shadow (Lannisport), and the strength of the West is considerable. If given a reprieve from the Wot5K then they could build their own strength at sea, and the proximity of the Westerlands to the Islands is a cause of some concern (though it could offer better logistics for the forces of the Ironmen). With that said, one does not need to look at Casterly Rock to find all the gold, which means there is a better economic reason to raid the West (and the Ironmen are much more interested in gold then you seem to think, they defy Euron on passing on the rich city of Oldtown).

The North is too big. The Attrition rate that Victarion suffered from the Cronnogmen were more then just a nuisance, and the Northmen have a greater degree to outmaneuver Balon's men. And as far as Asha was concerned, going North was a bad idea (she probably never questioned the invasion to his face because it could have gone against her standing as her fathers successor).

And after saying all that, the land forces of the Iron Islands is seemingly inferior to those of the North and West. Tywin's men were amongst the best equipped in the kingdoms and he was renowned for how he drilled them. The battle of Torren's Square indicates an advantage to the North, and Tywin was of the opinion that the soldiers of the North were more effective then those from the Iles ("they will be feasting on octopus by the time of spring").

I dont think its unreasonable to think they couldnt hold part of the north not all of it , and as this thread is about balons planning we must remember as far as he and 99% of westros lords are concerned you cannot take the north from the south due to moat cailain which he siezed. He made his plan with no knowledge of the crannogmens secret routes.

The battle of torrens square also shows us that place was threatened by theons meagre forces so may have been next in balons plan.

[zJordan]

If the Lannisters actually fell to the Starks then Balon would be in for a fight as Robb would just march back North and push him out. The Iron Islands aren't even profitable to the Iron Throne in my opinion (they can raise about 15,000 men, their navy is the only thing that seperates them), Cersei wouldn't waste a lot of resources on reconquering them, she would probably give up and focus on regaining the North.

Back on topic: Balon was a fool to declare independence full stop. If Balon had lived longer I'm reasonably sure the Tyrells would raise the armies and navies to take them back. Robert did and he couldn't possibly raise an army as big. (Even though he had the majority of Westeros on his side)

To summarize, Balon may have held out for a few years while the Iron Throne regathered its strength from WOTFK but they would fall even faster than their previous rebellion.

[khalhotpie]

It was a big mistake motivated out of petty vengeance towards the family that took his remaining son hostage and "softened" him.

The Iron Throne was never going to grant the Islands autonomy, and indeed had no concern for the Iron Islands. Meanwhile Robb actively sought them as an ally, and making it conditional that the Throne recognize both the North and Iron Islands as free from the realm would have been a realistic demand. It was hardly some big sacrifice for the Iron Throne, the Iron Islands do not come off as especially valuable and indeed often troublesome.

I think at this stage balon had no fear of a united westeros under the iron throne anymore. He viewed the war of 5 kings as the end of any united front for some time, a chance to expand ironborn power in a time of chaos

beween the westerland and the north he chose the much easier target

[Minstral]

I dont think its unreasonable to think they couldnt hold part of the north not all of it , and as this thread is about balons planning we must remember as far as he and 99% of westros lords are concerned you cannot take the north from the south due to moat cailain which he siezed. He made his plan with no knowledge of the crannogmens secret routes.

The battle of torrens square also shows us that place was threatened by theons meagre forces so may have been next in balons plan.

Balon claims the entirety of the North when by claiming the title of "King of the North". he even further entreats to the Lannisters that he should be recognized as such. It is Asha who had the thought of holding a part of the North, so contrary to what you are suggesting Balon is not looking to hold onto slivers but the entire feast. And when some of his men overreach their grasp, such as the Cleftjaw with a couple hundred men, they get slapped like a child stealing food against a greater force of better equipped and disciplined land armies (which is something alluded to by Asha when she surmises the battle). Moreover, if Balon intended to come in force to the Stony Shore, then it would be reasonable to think that Asha would come in force when she comes to gather Theon. Since she does not, then there is nothing to imply that he considered it a target.

[khalhotpie]

Balon claims the entirety of the North when by claiming the title of "King of the North". he even further entreats to the Lannisters that he should be recognized as such. It is Asha who had the thought of holding a part of the North, so contrary to what you are suggesting Balon is not looking to hold onto slivers but the entire feast. And when some of his men overreach their grasp, such as the Cleftjaw with a couple hundred men, they get slapped like a child stealing food against a greater force of better equipped and disciplined land armies (which is something alluded to by Asha when she surmises the battle). Moreover, if Balon intended to come in force to the Stony Shore, then it would be reasonable to think that Asha would come in force when she comes to gather Theon. Since she does not, then there is nothing to imply that he considered it a target.

He was aiming for the whole north , may not have gotten it all or maybe he would have we'l never know my pint was it wasnt unrealistic to think they couldnt hold territory.

cleftjaws actions are a distraction to draw men away from winterfell so theon can take it not an overeach ...that much should be obvious

plus remember they return and take the castle anyway.

Neither greyjoy comes in force as they are supposed to be siezing vunerable points as bridgeheads for the rest of the ironborn using suprise ..the bulk of the military is still sitting awaiting whatever the next phase of the plan was ...prob massively increasing the garrisons at those siezed points to begin with.

[Minstral]

He was aiming for the whole north , may not have gotten it all or maybe he would have we'l never know my pint was it wasnt unrealistic to think they couldnt hold territory.

cleftjaws actions are a distraction to draw men away from winterfell so theon can take it not an overeach ...that much should be obvious

plus remember they return and take the castle anyway.

Neither greyjoy comes in force as they are supposed to be siezing vunerable points as bridgeheads for the rest of the ironborn using suprise ..the bulk of the military is still sitting awaiting whatever the next phase of the plan was ...prob massively increasing the garrisons at those siezed points to begin with.

Clefjaw's actions, attacking Torren's Square, are against orders and are stretching their numbers too thin. Dagmar tells this to Theon that attacking Torrens Square is a battle he cannot win because any force that Rodrick summons will be larger than his own, therefore it is obvious that the man cannot truly mount an effective attack and is overreaching himself. There is no buildup there, and the attack on Deepwood Motte is half a continent away from the Neck where the bulk of their forces are. These forces, under Theon/Clefjaw and Asha, are very vulnerable to the likes Cassle who could very easily exceed the 2000 men he gathered at Winterfell to oust Theon (there is a point that he and Luwin make in ACOK that they have the manpower to raise another host to join Robb if need be, he didn't take all their military mustering power when he marched south). Dagmer only takes the castle later when Rodrick took whatever the Tallharts had in manpower to Winterfell where they die when Ramsay turns on Cassle.

Last of all, the bulk of the Greyjoy power is in the Neck. When Balon details his plans he states as much when they plan the invasion, so alluding that he has secret forces somewhere else waiting to spring on the Northmen is a fabrication that you are making.

[Fat King Robert]

Yeah.

And if he was going to declare independence, he should have stayed quiet like the Vale and Dorne, and when KL is most damaged, he should have wreaked havoc on the Westerlands and the Reach. That would certainly bring down the morale of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, and they'd be too weak to do much about it.

Just like his Greyjoy Rebellion. He should have started when at the end of Robert's Rebellion, when KL was at it's weakest and Robert could have probably granted them independence.

Instead the shithead waited years so that they could recover, and then decided to attack.

I think we should crown him stupidest king ever.

We don't know the circumstances to why he waited those many years. According to the wiki, his father died before RR. Still, we don't know why he waited. Did he have the manpower or the ships? Did he know himself that he wanted independance for the IB DIRECTLY after Robert's Rebellion?

I dissagree with him being the most stupid king ever. Joffrey, Robb and Renly comes before him, IMHO.

Yeah, but attacking the North was really stupid.

Why'd he unnecessarily make an enemy of Robb?

Even if he didn't ally with him and decided to go solo, he had no clear reason for attacking the North.

If anything, he was unwittingly helping the Lannisters defeat the Northerners.

And yes, attacking the Reach is dangerous.

The Ironborn are going to get their asses handed to them by Willas and Garlan Tyrell.

He needed lands for the IB, amongst other things. He also wanted revenge for his dead sons. Whether this is something you agree on. If you think that was a a stupid decision, go ahead. But it was one of many reasons.

Garlan is a good swordsman, but Willas is a cripple. Euron will outplay both of them with cunning. :fencing:

Clefjaw's actions, attacking Torren's Square, are against orders and are stretching their numbers too thin. Dagmar tells this to Theon that attacking Torrens Square is a battle he cannot win because any force that Rodrick summons will be larger than his own, therefore it is obvious that the man cannot truly mount an effective attack and is overreaching himself. There is no buildup there, and the attack on Deepwood Motte is half a continent away from the Neck where the bulk of their forces are. These forces, under Theon/Clefjaw and Asha, are very vulnerable to the likes Cassle who could very easily exceed the 2000 men he gathered at Winterfell to oust Theon (there is a point that he and Luwin make in ACOK that they have the manpower to raise another host to join Robb if need be, he didn't take all their military mustering power when he marched south). Dagmer only takes the castle later when Rodrick took whatever the Tallharts had in manpower to Winterfell where they die when Ramsay turns on Cassle.

Last of all, the bulk of the Greyjoy power is in the Neck. When Balon details his plans he states as much when they plan the invasion, so alluding that he has secret forces somewhere else waiting to spring on the Northmen is a fabrication that you are making.

The attack was to draw most of the attention towards Cleftjaw, so Theon could take Winterfell (which he should have sacked the moment after he took Bran and Rickon as hostages) without having to lose any men. Had Theon not royally fucked up, both Theon and Dagmer could sail back to Pyke with Bran and Rickon, which would give them advantages in their war against the north.

[khalhotpie]

Clefjaw's actions, attacking Torren's Square, are against orders and are stretching their numbers too thin. Dagmar tells this to Theon that attacking Torrens Square is a battle he cannot win because any force that Rodrick summons will be larger than his own, therefore it is obvious that the man cannot truly mount an effective attack and is overreaching himself. There is no buildup there, and the attack on Deepwood Motte is half a continent away from the Neck where the bulk of their forces are. These forces, under Theon/Clefjaw and Asha, are very vulnerable to the likes Cassle who could very easily exceed the 2000 men he gathered at Winterfell to oust Theon (there is a point that he and Luwin make in ACOK that they have the manpower to raise another host to join Robb if need be, he didn't take all their military mustering power when he marched south). Dagmer only takes the castle later when Rodrick took whatever the Tallharts had in manpower to Winterfell where they die when Ramsay turns on Cassle.

Last of all, the bulk of the Greyjoy power is in the Neck. When Balon details his plans he states as much when they plan the invasion, so alluding that he has secret forces somewhere else waiting to spring on the Northmen is a fabrication that you are making.

They are agaisnt balons orders but are theons to draw men away so winterfell can be taken

and again we are talking a small part of the ironborns forces...sent to take critical points in stealth

erm no it isnt ...the greyjoys military is estimated on here to be about 15k-25k (see various threads on it)

Vic goes with just the elite, the iron fleet (100 boats with about 1000 hardcore ironborn) to take the critical moat cailin, with this as far as most of westeros is concerned a force marching from the south cannot get past. It is thus highly important so the bulk of his elite force is used but bear in mind this is just a small part of the ironborns overall fleet and men.

then later vic leaves a skelton crew of just over 63 men and goes to the kingsmoot.

then even later euron has his own plans so the force there is forgotten about.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Battle_of_Moat_Cailin

[Lord Reaver]

erm no it isnt ...the greyjoys military is estimated on here to be about 15k-25k (see various threads on it)

Vic goes with just the elite, the iron fleet (100 boats with about 1000 hardcore ironborn)

Heh, nope. Go read any of my responses to those threads. The total military of the Ironborn is somehwere between 25-50k. No way is it 15k, the Iron Fleet alone is nearly that large. You'll notice you missed a factor 10 when calculating how many men are in the Iron Fleet: 100 ships, each with about 100 men. That makes 10k, not 1k.

[Lord Damian]

The letter that was sent to Balon was worded improperly. Had the words been more respectfull and more along the lines of agreeing that they too deserve to by and independent Kingdom would possibly hit a more aggreeable tone. "Give" him a crown was an insult and belittlement that Iron Born cannot stand. Also, they should have considered a marriage alliance if they knew Asha was alive and well to Edmure.

[khalhotpie]

Heh, nope. Go read any of my responses to those threads. The total military of the Ironborn is somehwere between 25-50k. No way is it 15k, the Iron Fleet alone is nearly that large. You'll notice you missed a factor 10 when calculating how many men are in the Iron Fleet: 100 ships, each with about 100 men. That makes 10k, not 1k.

cool thats makes balons plan even more achieveable