Mel and Stannis at Odds

[Lord Martin]

I am starting to wonder if GRRM is setting us up to have Mel and Stannis come to oppose each other at some point. On a re-read I was struck by one of Davos's chapters when he has the following conversations with Stannis and Mel:

First after the parlay, he says to Davos

Unthinking, Davos raised his maimed hand to the pouch at his throat, and felt the fingerbones within. Luck.

The king saw the motion. "Are they still there, Onion Knight? You have not lost them?"

"No."

"Why do you keep them? I have often wondered."

"They remind me of what I was. Where I came from. They remind me of your justice, my liege."

"It was justice," Stannis said. "A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward. You were a hero and a smuggler." He glanced behind at Lord Florent and the others, rainbow knights and turncloaks, who were following at a distance. "These pardoned lords would do well to reflect on that. Good men and true will fight for Joffrey, wrongly believing him the true king. A northman might even say the same of Robb Stark. But these lords who flocked to my brother's banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are. Pardoned them, yes. Forgiven. But not forgotten." He fell silent for a moment, brooding on his plans for justice. And then, abruptly, he said, "What do the smallfolk say of Renly's death?"

But in the same chapter Mel tells Davos:

Silent, Davos tended to his course. The shore was a snarl of rocks, so he was taking them well out across the bay. He would wait for the tide to turn before coming about. Storm's End dwindled behind them, but the red woman seemed unconcerned. "Are you a good man, Davos Seaworth?" she asked.

Would a good man be doing this? "I am a man," he said. "I am kind to my wife, but I have known other women. I have tried to be a father to my sons, to help make them a place in this world. Aye, I've broken laws, but I never felt evil until tonight. I would say my parts are mixed, m'lady. Good and bad."

"A grey man," she said. "Neither white nor black, but partaking of both. Is that what you are, Ser Davos?"

"What if I am? It seems to me that most men are grey."

"If half of an onion is black with rot, it is a rotten onion. A man is good, or he is evil."

The fires behind them had melted into one vague glow against the black sky, and the land was almost out of sight. It was time to come about. "Watch your head, my lady." He pushed on the tiller, and the small boat threw up a curl of black water as she turned. Melisandre leaned under the swinging yard, one hand on the gunwale, calm as ever. Wood creaked, canvas cracked, and water splashed, so loudly a man might swear the castle was sure to hear. Davos knew better. The endless crash of wave on rock was the only sound that ever penetrated the massive seaward walls of Storm's End, and that but faintly.

A rippling wake spread out behind as they swung back toward the shore. "You speak of men and onions," Davos said to Melisandre. "What of women? Is it not the same for them? Are you good or evil, my lady?"

That made her chuckle. "Oh, good. I am a knight of sorts myself, sweet ser. A champion of light and life."

"Yet you mean to kill a man tonight," he said. "As you killed Maester Cressen."

"Your maester poisoned himself. He meant to poison me, but I was protected by a greater power and he was not."

"And Renly Baratheon? Who was it who killed him?"

Her head turned. Beneath the shadow of the cowl, her eyes burned like pale red candle flames. "Not I."

"Liar." Davos was certain now.

Melisandre laughed again. "You are lost in darkness and confusion, Ser Davos."

I have to wonder if the bolded quotes are setting up an inherent philosophical difference between Stannis and Mel. Yet at the same time, they seem to describe different sides of the same coin.

Stannis takes the position that good deeds do not wash out bad and vice versa. Men are a mixture of both and therefore deserve both rewards and punishments. One cannot help but think Stannis' guilt over his role in the death of Renly might be motivating his statements. Yet I think he believes what he says. For Stannis, this sort of earthly justice is as close as he can get to perfect justice. Punishment for bad acts and simulaneous reward for bad deeds.

Mel on the Other hand believes that a man is either good or evil. Yet she does not seem to base that on deeds alone, but on end goals. For her the ends justifies the means whereas for Stannis there must be justification for the means.

Yet rather than justify the means of Renly's death, she disavows any role in it... and we know that is not true. She seems to be "blaming" Stannis or at least attributing the deed to him.

I don't have the time at the moment, but it would be interesting to explore other places where Stannis and Mel have agreed and disagreed.

[Leave it to your goat]

Well Stannis and Mel definitely disagreed on what to do with Mance. Seeing how Stannis wanted to burn him, and Mel went behind his back and glamoured Rattleshirt to take Mance's place in the flames.

[Gregor Clegane's head]

As soon as she realizes Stannis isn't AA she will betray him.

[Lopsang]

And when Stannis left Mel at Dragonstone when he besieged King's Landing. When I read that I thought to myself that Mel's loyalty may not always hinge on Stannis. A divide may be widening between them. Mel is really all that's keeping Stannis afloat at the moment.

[Roose on the Loose]

By the end of ADwD, Mel seems to be losing interest in Stannis. She doesn't accompany him on his military campaign. Instead she stays at Castle Black where she fawns over Jon.

[Mithras]

Well Stannis and Mel definitely disagreed on what to do with Mance. Seeing how Stannis wanted to burn him, and Mel went behind his back and glamoured Rattleshirt to take Mance's place in the flames.

I am quite sure that Stannis knew the Mance glamor.

As for the OP, I don't think Mel and Stannis will oppose each other. Mel is too invested in Stannis. Stannis likes to embrace the comforting lies of Mel when it suits him.

“Stubborn or craven, what does it matter? Ser Cortnay Penrose seemed hale and hearty to me.”

“So did my brother, the day before his death. The night is dark and full of terrors, Davos.”

Davos Seaworth felt the small hairs rising on the back of his neck. “My lord, I do not understand you.”

“I do not require your understanding. Only your service. Ser Cortnay will be dead within the day. Melisandre has seen it in the flames of the future. His death and the manner of it. He will not die in knightly combat, needless to say.” Stannis held out his cup, and Devan filled it again from the flagon. “Her flames do not lie. She saw Renly’s doom as well. On Dragonstone she saw it, and told Selyse. Lord Velaryon and your friend Salladhor Saan would have had me sail against Joffrey, but Melisandre told me that if I went to Storm’s End, I would win the best part of my brother’s power, and she was right.”

“B-but,” Davos stammered, “Lord Renly only came here because you had laid siege to the castle. He was marching toward King’s Landing before, against the Lannisters, he would have—”

Stannis shifted in his seat, frowning. “Was, would have, what is that? He did what he did. He came here with his banners and his peaches, to his doom . . . and it was well for me he did. Melisandre saw another day in her flames as well. A morrow where Renly rode out of the south in his green armor to smash my host beneath the walls of King’s Landing. Had I met my brother there, it might have been me who died in place of him.”

“Or you might have joined your strength to his to bring down the Lannisters,” Davos protested. “Why not that? If she saw two futures, well . . . both cannot be true.”

King Stannis pointed a finger. “There you err, Onion Knight. Some lights cast more than one shadow. Stand before the nightfire and you’ll see for yourself. The flames shift and dance, never still. The shadows grow tall and short, and every man casts a dozen. Some are fainter than others, that’s all. Well, men cast their shadows across the future as well. One shadow or many. Melisandre sees them all.”

We see that Davos is very quick to understand the inconsistencies in Mel’s visions (two futures that contradict each other) but Stannis repeats the feeble lies of Mel to Davos.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

By the end of ADwD, Mel seems to be losing interest in Stannis. She doesn't accompany him on his military campaign. Instead she stays at Castle Black where she fawns over Jon.

I don't think this is a sign that she is losing interest at all. Stannis doesn't seem to want her on his campaigns and this really seems smart. She doesn't fawn over Jon but she does want to win him over to the cause which at this point is still Stannis being the AA. She asks the flames to show her a sign of him wanted to see Stannis and grows frustrated when she sees only Snow. They may eventually split (Melisandre is more devoted to R'hollor and his will than Stannis and will follow her god) but they haven't begun to, at this time. She is also held back by her huge belief in her initial interpretations of the signs and visions and will most likely continue to ignore the signs that are pointing away from Stannis until something really huge forces her to reflect and revise her plans.