[TWOIAF spoilers] Size and age of Asshai vs its poppulation and food resources hint at a past ecological disaster?

[ummester]

It isn't spelling. It is a completely different word with a completely different meaning.

North. It's a direction, the opposite of south. It isn't up for debate that Martin aligned the maps to correspond to the cardinal directions of the real world. I would stop reading if his biggest twist was "LULZ THE MAP WUZ CROOKED". It isn't a matter of opinion, it is a matter of fact. The fact that you're holding out hope that the map isn't lined up to the cardinal directions is incredible to me. I'm done with this.

If you are so done with it and so sure of your 'facts' why did you bother getting involved with it in the first place?

You do realise you are reading a book about a world that isn't real, right? It's fiction, yea? Going on about facts seems kind of obsessive. If GRRM played a LULZ with his maps, it's ok, I'm sure it will not effect North in your understanding of the real world :)

On top of all of this, Martin has constantly stated that the world maps are drawn from the relative skill of a medieval cartographer. It wouldn't really being playing a LULZ - it would just be subverting the whole idea of an accurate map in a fantasy novel, which is totally in line with how the novel is written.

Don't let it stress you so much.

[ummester]

Magnetic and rotational north are roughly aligned.

Clearly an aurora, charged particles impinging on the magnetosphere, traveling along the field lines, the iridescing as the impact the atmosphere... At the magnetic poles.

(Oh, and the magnetic poles have nothing to do with the seasons or the axial tilt)

Is this over The Lands of Always Winter H0X0?

And yes, I would agree that the magnetic field is probably irrelevant. It's only going to make a difference if you find north with a compass anyway and you've already established there is no compass use in ASoIaF.

So anyway, besides starting to come up with a theory for what may have happened to the ASoIaF planet during the Long Night and how it's orbit and axial tilt could (probably) be different than before it, the original talk was Asshai and how I suspect Ulthos could be the south pole.

Is there any text for the weather around Asshai other than that it is shadowed?

[hollowcrown]

Asshai is a creepy and fascinating place, personally one of my favourite chapters of the book. It is very well written and leaves the entire place with a sense of mystery and foreboding, even though the place did get fleshed out a lot. I wonder how much of it is hyperbole though.

If the planet is sufficiently off axis it won't work quite like that - the sun would pass along the southwest, or north east, depending on your position on the planet.

Hey, your theory is really interesting, however it's a bit weird to understand in your head. Could you possibly use a map of Planetos or produce one and add things like where North, South, the tropics and the equator is in your opinion? I think it would help people a lot.

[ummester]

Hey, your theory is really interesting, however it's a bit weird to understand in your head. Could you possibly use a map of Planetos or produce one and add things like where North, South, the tropics and the equator is in your opinion? I think it would help people a lot.

I do mean to - soon :D

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ummester

The fundamental flaw in your theorizing - across a number of these threads - is that you try and ascribe a scientific cause to the lopsided seasons. Martin has expressly stated that the explanation is magical, and not scientific, in nature.

So it has nothing to do with axial tilts, magnetic or polar north and south, an eccentric orbital path around the planet, a binary star system with an irregular interplay between the two stars or anything along those lines.

The answer lies in some magical balance that was disrupted. Most likely the balance between Ice and Fire. Now, I know you said that this is meaningless hogwash as there is no scientific balance between Ice and Fire, but that's where your approach breaks down entirely. In the world of this series, the forces of Ice and Fire are real. Not as scientific or pseudo-scientific forces. But as magical forces.

And the magical event that caused the Long Night and the lopsided seasons almost certainly disrupted this balance, thus causing the seasonal variations.

The idea of Ulthos as the South Pole is about as wrong as an idea can be, in the context of this series.

[ummester]

Then why make the magic in the series so grounded and secondary to the main plot Free Northman Reborn?

I would argue, if Martin relies on a purely magical explanation and presents no logic or pseudoscience at all, then the conclusion will have an inconsistent tone to the rest of the series. You don't spend 7000 fucking pages trying to make a world feel realistic and believable just to throw it all away on an explanation that will not feel relevant.

The reason traditional fantasy stories have the big prologue about how the magic shaped the world is so that it doesn't break tone by the conclusion. I'm sorry, but if martin neglected to include that prologue and then ends with a similar explanation to a traditional high fantasy series, it will be bad writing and he wont be subverting anything, in the end.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ummester

I think you have a very strong personal preference for the manner in which this series should be written. A preference which is based on a perceived commitment from Martin to follow a certain subversive approach aligned to your expectations. In truth, there is no such commitment.

Fact: Martin has said the lopsided seasons are magical in origin, not scientific. He has said that for many years. Note too that this magical element is not meant to be in the foreground, with Martin also having said for many years that the series deliberately tones down the magic compared to some other fantasy series, but that magic will gradually increase in presence as the series progresses.

Furthermore, he has also always stated that to him magic should not be a methodical Dungeons and Dragons or One Power type system that serves as a substitute for science in his world. Magic should be mysterious, the rules of it should remain hidden, with tantalizing hints emerging from time to time, without it ever being fully understood. Magic should be dangerous and mysterious, according to Martin. "A sword without a hilt."

So while the cause of the lopsided seasons will eventually be revealed, according to Martin, don't expect the entire mechanism of this event to be fully explained. This is not a science fiction series.

Don't expect, for example, to learn that when heat builds up over X percentage of the world, to a temperature of more than 40 degrees Celsius, the balance of Fire becomes excessive and a Long Night is triggered to reduce the excessive heat.

But do expect to learn that in their desperation to stop the First Men, the Children engaged in a massive blood sacrifice to unleash powers they could not fully control, which disrupted the balance between Ice and Fire, thus triggering the Long Night, or some such explanation. The mechanics thereof will forever remain a mystery. But the broad strokes might be revealed.

I hope this explanation makes things a bit clearer to you.

[not in the face]

What do they do with the kids?

[ummester]

Ummester

I think you have a very strong personal preference for the manner in which this series should be written. A preference which is based on a perceived commitment from Martin to follow a certain subversive approach aligned to your expectations. In truth, there is no such commitment.

Fact: Martin has said the lopsided seasons are magical in origin, not scientific. He has said that for many years. Note too that this magical element is not meant to be in the foreground, with Martin also having said for many years that the series deliberately tones down the magic compared to some other fantasy series, but that magic will gradually increase in presence as the series progresses.

Furthermore, he has also always stated that to him magic should not be a methodical Dungeons and Dragons or One Power type system that serves as a substitute for science in his world. Magic should be mysterious, the rules of it should remain hidden, with tantalizing hints emerging from time to time, without it ever being fully understood. Magic should be dangerous and mysterious, according to Martin. "A sword without a hilt."

So while the cause of the lopsided seasons will eventually be revealed, according to Martin, don't expect the entire mechanism of this event to be fully explained. This is not a science fiction series.

Don't expect, for example, to learn that when heat builds up over X percentage of the world, to a temperature of more than 40 degrees Celsius, the balance of Fire becomes excessive and a Long Night is triggered to reduce the excessive heat.

But do expect to learn that in their desperation to stop the First Men, the Children engaged in a massive blood sacrifice to unleash powers they could not fully control, which disrupted the balance between Ice and Fire, thus triggering the Long Night, or some such explanation. The mechanics thereof will forever remain a mystery. But the broad strokes might be revealed.

I hope this explanation makes things a bit clearer to you.

It does make things clearer and thanks for taking the time to write it.

I am fully expecting a magical explanation. I'm not expecting a fully realized scientific explanation. However, I will be disappointed if the magical explanation feels illogical or whimsical and I'm sure I won't be the only one.

For instance, on the case of Ulthos - if Dany does indeed travel east to go weast and south to go north on route to Westeros and she does this by passing through a magical portal, that has not previously been foreshadowed in the text, I'm sure a lot of readers will be displeased. If it is reasonably foreshadowed and set up then it is fine - but it hasn't been as yet and it is a long way into the tale. Setting up a magical portal in book 6, for book 6, will seem like poorly planned writing - this is nothing to do with personal preference.

My estimate of the tone did not originally come from the books, but from the show, as this was my initial introduction. The main thing that reading the books made me aware of as different to the show was that there was an underlying eco tale, which the show did not really present, other than that I have found the overall tone fairly consistent with the show.

Finally, if GRRM is truly erudite, as others have described him - his magic will feel grounded and he will have taken some pseudoscience into account. He does not have to put it in the text - but it should work, on a logical level, if a reader were to think about it. There should be an underlying element of general truth,if the writing is smart.

[Waters Gate]

Ummester

I think you have a very strong personal preference for the manner in which this series should be written. A preference which is based on a perceived commitment from Martin to follow a certain subversive approach aligned to your expectations. In truth, there is no such commitment.

Fact: Martin has said the lopsided seasons are magical in origin, not scientific. He has said that for many years. Note too that this magical element is not meant to be in the foreground, with Martin also having said for many years that the series deliberately tones down the magic compared to some other fantasy series, but that magic will gradually increase in presence as the series progresses.

I know the community has a strong prefference for the "it's magic" explenation regarding astrophysics. That said, i have dwelled in this before aswell, and while i will tottaly agree that Martin unlikely read books on the subject to create a realistic enviroment, i woundn't dare to say that even within the perspective that "it's magic" things like planets or stars or say meterorite's don't matter. Imho certain things might be "astromagical", a lot of religious pantheon on Planetos refers to bodies in space. The fate of the seven with it's stars, the moonsingers of braavos, the fact that there are certain astrological beliefs, etc.

For ex. lets say that there would be working astrology in the series. Things like if this planet or constelation is in this circumstance then x will happen, and then x actually happens too. There are astrological beliefs in the series, like best time to steal a spearwive is when the stranger is in the moonmaid. Afcourse that in itself has nothing to do with the seasons, but it might be that certain objects in space really are diety's and can act in stranger ways than physics would allow them too, thereby creating the seasons in some magical way. However: i do believe if one is going to make an "astromagical theory", that it should in the least be substantiated by hints provided in the book.

@Ummester: something that i find more difficult with youre theory is that it tries to give a lot of complex suggestions to how the seasons might be explained from an asronomical way, but that i find very find canon material that would in any way suggest that situation, or that you yourself don't provide much canon material to back youre theory's up. To put it somewhat differently, you seem more engaged with expanding on youre complec theory even when you have very few material that suggest that the basic theory you started from had any foundation in the text.

I have thought about how a long night could be created astronomicly. there are various methods. I have given my doubts about an ever changing axial tilt already because it's a very complex soughted sollution imho withought substance from the canon text. I have thougt before that other reaons,like a plannet that stops turning around it's own axis, and others like say a object exacting a large solar exclipse on a certain region on the globe, could also be explenations and often they are far easier ones than axial tilt imho. But for me, the issue with launching such a theory is, again, that i don't seem to find cannon material that gives any strong suggestion of such things happening or having happened. Sure, there are some suggestions, but there are also many other suggestions to other reasons for the changing seasons that are not astronomical.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ummester

I agree with most of your post.

The go east to go west thing remains unexplained. We know Martin has said we won't be seeing Ashai, so she isn't going that far East. My take on it, if it is to be taken literally, is that she has to return to the Vaes Dothrak to resolve some issues with all those crones hanging around there, unite the Dothraki and then march West with that entire bloodthirsty horde in tow.

Certainly the end of Dance seems to be leading up to such an outcome.

As to the consistency of the magic. Of course. The reveal will undoubtedly tie into some carefully placed hints that were scattered through the preceding books. I think warging is a very important component of it. As is the concept of blood magic. I also think the reveal will be logically consistent based only on hints provided in the main series itself, and that you will not need to have read peripheral add-ons like the World Book to make sense of it, in the end.

So I think the cause of the Long Night is Westeros centric, and that it originates Beyond the Wall. Its effects were felt all over the world, however.

[Free Northman Reborn]

An explanation I am currently considering is that if Ice and Fire is given free reign, it will turn the planet into a hell that cannot support life. Which was probably the original state of the planet in any case. Then at some point in history, the balance of Ice and Fire achieved a point where life could actually emerge between these two extremes.

Thus emerged Those Who Sing The Song Of Earth. The Children. They used their magic to push back the forces of Ice and Fire (both of whom are alien to our type of life). That's what the hinges of the World is all about. From the hints in the World Book, the Wall might just be the hinge that holds back the power of Ice. There may be other hinges - like the Five Forts perhaps - that equally hold back the Power of Fire. Or maybe some unknown hinges at the southern edges of Sothoryos and Ulthos etc.

So in between the "hinges", life can thrive. Outside them, the forces of Ice and Fire hold sway. But as humans emerged and started using their technology to wipe out the Children, so the power of Earth waned, and eventually when the Children dwindled sufficiently, Ice had the power to sweep forth from the North to try and reclaim the territory that the Children took from it.

Or some such scenario. It is as good a theory as any, at this point in time, given our limited knowledge. Tomorrow I will have another theory again.

[ummester]

@Ummester: something that i find more difficult with youre theory is that it tries to give a lot of complex suggestions to how the seasons might be explained from an asronomical way, but that i find very find canon material that would in any way suggest that situation, or that you yourself don't provide much canon material to back youre theory's up. To put it somewhat differently, you seem more engaged with expanding on youre complec theory even when you have very few material that suggest that the basic theory you started from had any foundation in the text.

I have thought about how a long night could be created astronomicly. there are various methods. I have given my doubts about an ever changing axial tilt already because it's a very complex soughted sollution imho withought substance from the canon text. I have thougt before that other reaons,like a plannet that stops turning around it's own axis, and others like say a object exacting a large solar exclipse on a certain region on the globe, could also be explenations and often they are far easier ones than axial tilt imho. But for me, the issue with launching such a theory is, again, that i don't seem to find cannon material that gives any strong suggestion of such things happening or having happened. Sure, there are some suggestions, but there are also many other suggestions to other reasons for the changing seasons that are not astronomical.

Well the crux of my theory was always that dragon fire, or something in Asshai, somehow disrupted the planets orbit Waters Gate - so it was astromagical.

The thing what really upset posters was not that - but the idea that the larger fan maps may be incorrect. The maps in the books never show the continents alongside each other, so I think anything still goes as far as for how the continents fit together,

This thread has proved, with the north star being constant in winter and summer, that the axis doesn't wobble. That's fine, it disregards one option.

Ummester

So I think the cause of the Long Night is Westeros centric, and that it originates Beyond the Wall. Its effects were felt all over the world, however.

This is the only place I would say we disagree here - I see the response as something that initiated beyond the wall, to an action that occurred elsewhere, likely Asshai.

There is a feeling of human conquest - that is canon in the text - from east to west, across the globe. The older peoples and human magics are from the east, whilst the older non human magics are from the west. I think this has to be relevant in some way.

[H0X0]

Is this over The Lands of Always Winter H0X0?

And yes, I would agree that the magnetic field is probably irrelevant. It's only going to make a difference if you find north with a compass anyway and you've already established there is no compass use in ASoIaF.

So anyway, besides starting to come up with a theory for what may have happened to the ASoIaF planet during the Long Night and how it's orbit and axial tilt could (probably) be different than before it, the original talk was Asshai and how I suspect Ulthos could be the south pole.

Is there any text for the weather around Asshai other than that it is shadowed?

It's in the shivering sea part. Sorry should have included page numbers. In reference to sailing up to the ice caps.

The only way to end up with multi year seasons from orbital parameters is if the period of procession is roughly one year. Conservation of angular momentum dictates angle between the axis of rotation and a reference plane (normal to the orbital plane) remain constant once procession is accounted for. For one pole to remain pointed towards the sun for many years means that the angular velocity due to procession has to be almost equal and opposite to the angular velocity of orbit.

But we can rule this out because there isn't a procession of pole stars that's noticeable on human time scales.

I don't recall there being any mention of weather in Asshai.

[Jaak]

What do they do with the kids?

Kids, like lambs, goats and sheep, die when brought to Asshai. Which is not a problem if they are not intended for rearing in the first place, but intended to be slaughtered promptly on arrival for fresh meat.

What is the age cutoff for young humans to survive arrival in Asshai? If Mercy were sent to Asshai to carry out an assassination, can she do it? Or would she, as still a child, die in Asshai like as animals do without accomplishing her mission?

[ummester]

An explanation I am currently considering is that if Ice and Fire is given free reign, it will turn the planet into a hell that cannot support life. Which was probably the original state of the planet in any case. Then at some point in history, the balance of Ice and Fire achieved a point where life could actually emerge between these two extremes.

Thus emerged Those Who Sing The Song Of Earth. The Children. They used their magic to push back the forces of Ice and Fire (both of whom are alien to our type of life). That's what the hinges of the World is all about. From the hints in the World Book, the Wall might just be the hinge that holds back the power of Ice. There may be other hinges - like the Five Forts perhaps - that equally hold back the Power of Fire. Or maybe some unknown hinges at the southern edges of Sothoryos and Ulthos etc.

So in between the "hinges", life can thrive. Outside them, the forces of Ice and Fire hold sway. But as humans emerged and started using their technology to wipe out the Children, so the power of Earth waned, and eventually when the Children dwindled sufficiently, Ice had the power to sweep forth from the North to try and reclaim the territory that the Children took from it.

Or some such scenario. It is as good a theory as any, at this point in time, given our limited knowledge. Tomorrow I will have another theory again.

In broad terms I agree with this. What I am suggesting is that the embodiment of fire being given free reign are the dragons, which were created by humans in Asshai.

And then yes, the children/old gods of the north responded to this expansion of humans and dragons, throwing the world off axis and out of orbit in the process. A moon was lost and the Long Night came. When everything settled, the planet had a different orbit and axis.

Our understanding of the text isn't dissimilar - I am just asserting that there should be a reasonable pseudoscience that ties in with it.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ummester

Yes, I too have long held the view that the unnatural creation of dragons allowed the power of Fire to spread beyond its original confinement. And that indeed, humans emerging to make use of blood magic may have led to the disruption of the balance. So your theory is certainly one that I also favour.

I just totally reject any impacts on orbital positions or other celestial relationships as a result. To me, the impact of Ice and Fire is a direct one, and not an indirect one through the manipulation of celestial bodies, orbits etc.

[ummester]

The only way to end up with multi year seasons from orbital parameters is if the period of procession is roughly one year. Conservation of angular momentum dictates angle between the axis of rotation and a reference plane (normal to the orbital plane) remain constant once procession is accounted for. For one pole to remain pointed towards the sun for many years means that the angular velocity due to procession has to be almost equal and opposite to the angular velocity of orbit.

But we can rule this out because there isn't a procession of pole stars that's noticeable on human time scales.

So wait a minute, does this suggest that the planet is actually astronomically impossible?

We've ruled out axial wobble with the north star. And now you are saying it is impossible to have multi year seasons without the wobble? I guess an irregular orbit would be impossible if the years are always the same length.

[ummester]

Ummester

Yes, I too have long held the view that the unnatural creation of dragons allowed the power of Fire to spread beyond its original confinement. And that indeed, humans emerging to make use of blood magic may have led to the disruption of the balance. So your theory is certainly one that I also favour.

I just totally reject any impacts on orbital positions or other celestial relationships as a result. To me, the impact of Ice and Fire is a direct one, and not an indirect one through the manipulation of celestial bodies, orbits etc.

If I'm reading what H0X0 just wrote correctly - the planet may be astronomically impossible anyway :D

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ummester

I repeat. There is no astronomical reason for the lopsided seasons. It is magical in nature.

In fact, there is even evidence in-series that the normal seasons are continuing undisturbed in the background according to the planet's orbital path, even while the magical "blanket' of a lopsided Summer or Winter is blocking it out.

This evidence comes from the reference to Spirit Summers and False Springs in the middle of Winter, and to Summer Snows in the middle of Summer. Martin has stated that spirit summers in the middle of Winter can be long enough for an entire harvest to be planted and harvested. What this seems to show is that such a spirit summer in the middle of a multi-year Winter is in fact the planet reaching its normal orbital summer position for the northern hemisphere, and that the summer is then able to temporarily reduce or even break through the grip of the magical "blanket' of Winter, allowing harvests to be planted in the depth of Winter.

Such spirit summers do not occur regularly or predictably, but may be the result of some magical weakening of the lopsided season, allowing part of the normal season to pierce its veil. Similarly, Summer Snows in the middle of a magical long Summer appear to the be reverse of the above, with the natural 3 month winter breaking through the magical blanket of a long Summer.

All of the above seem to show that the orbit or tilt of the planet remains undisturbed, and that the lopsided seasons are in fact akin to a magical "veil" or "blanket" that blocks out the natural Season and produces a magical long Winter or Summer at ground level. Go up beyond this veil - maybe into the stratosphere - and you will see the planet experiencing the normal seasons, which could be the opposite of what is happening on the ground.