[TWOIAF spoilers] Size and age of Asshai vs its poppulation and food resources hint at a past ecological disaster?

[H0X0]

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Didn't he start as a Sci Fi writer? Doesn't he claim Sci Fi was his first writing passion?

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Strange that GRRM has put evidence suggesting some type of climatic event if he is not going to follow up on it though. Global darkness, land bridges separating, east/west north/south prophecy - and in the end the Children of the Forrest are probably digging their way from Asshai, to the doom to the lands of Always Winter or some shit that will seem pretty lame in comparison :D

There's sci-fi, then there's hard sci-fi. I haven't read his sci-fi stuff, so I can't say for sure he doesn't right this way. But, to paraphrase Ronnie from Frisky Dingo, it's complicated enough without all this astronomy bullshit having.

I'm sure we get some explanation, maybe in TWoW (if we live that long), but it won't be related to orbit. I so wanted to gloat about calling that. Oh well, at least I called r+l=j.

[Jaak]

I did find this GRRM answer to a related question:

[Are the seasons irregular only in Westeros or also in the eastern continent?]

The eastern continent (Essos) is further south than Westeros, and feels the North of the great sweep of the eastern sweep of the eastern lands is a huge ocean, the Shivering Sea. Only Westeros extends to the far north.

This seems to suggest that winter doesn't effect Essos - so the Long Night seems to have been a one off event unrelated to the coming winter.

No, it suggests that winters affect Essos less severely than Westeros - that the winters of northern Essos may be similar to winters of southern Westeros, but they are also irregular and in fact simultaneous with winters in northern and southern Essos.

Tyrion finds trees bare in Pentos as they are in Westeros, and even Daenerys far south near Meereen finds the Dothraki Sea wilted with winter.

[ummester]

There's sci-fi, then there's hard sci-fi. I haven't read his sci-fi stuff, so I can't say for sure he doesn't right this way. But, to paraphrase Ronnie from Frisky Dingo, it's complicated enough without all this astronomy bullshit having.

I would have thought hard Sci Fi is really hard Sci Fi - as in very technically accurate. ie 2001

Sci Fi is just basic science mixed with fiction. ie Aliens

A total disregard for any science is pure fantasy, even if its set in space. ie Star Wars

[ummester]

No, it suggests that winters affect Essos less severely than Westeros - that the winters of northern Essos may be similar to winters of southern Westeros, but they are also irregular and in fact simultaneous with winters in northern and southern Essos.

Tyrion finds trees bare in Pentos as they are in Westeros, and even Daenerys far south near Meereen finds the Dothraki Sea wilted with winter.

So do you think a long winter is the same as a Long Night or not?

[Edd fetch me the boo box]

Polar and magnetic north may not be aligned on Planetos.

Imagine a globe, with an equator. Spin it down to the left, so the equator is on an angle. But north is still up.

If the planet has had a full polar reversal, as some believe is possible on ancient Earth, then north and south, east and west would literally be back to front.

I'm saying Planetos may have had one, when the ice on Ulthos melted, because of dragons and, because it only has one frozen pole left, has not settled correctly on it's axis. It's like a spinning ball flipping over and then continuing to wobble, as it spins, for a a long time.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/119729-will-danys-dragons-reproduce/page-2

I need to draw/photoshop a map to correctly visualize it.

You're wrong. Point blank.

The equator is by definition: An equator is the intersection of a sphere's surface with the plane perpendicular to the sphere's axis of rotation and midway between the poles.

The way the planet rotates determines where the equator is.

Edited quoted wrong post.

[ummester]

You're wrong. Point blank.

The equator is by definition: An equator is the intersection of a sphere's surface with the plane perpendicular to the sphere's axis of rotation and midway between the poles.

The way the planet rotates determines where the equator is.

Dude, you can't say your wrong. Point blank, without knowing where the axis of rotation for this planet is.

I know what an equator is - I was suggesting that it may not be where people think it is on this planet.

The best evidence to condradict my theory has nothing to do with vegetation or crap like that - because wherever you put the equator on the maps provided doesn't equal Earth. We don't have savannahs in the east.

The best and only evidence to contradict it is the north star remaining in a relatively northerly position for summer and winter.

Everything else is mute - just because people have been assuming for a long time what they think the map represents in Earth terms, it can all be thrown out the window tomorrow.

And there is still nothing to prove where the equator is on the maps provided. All that can be disproven is that the planet doesn't wobble as much on it's axis of rotation as I thought. It is far more stupid to assume cultures represented in ASoIaF could draw an accurate equatorial map than the maps being all over the shop with regards to the equator.

I'll laugh my ass off, if in the next book, Dany does sail east to Asshai, south past Ulthos and come up under or west of Westeros.

[Werthead]

This seems to suggest that winter doesn't effect Essos - so the Long Night seems to have been a one off event unrelated to the coming winter.

The Long Night was a one-off event, a winter that lasted a generation (possibly c. 25 years). However, very long winters are not unknown, three years or even five I think are occasionally mentioned.

Indeed, both the original AGoT blurb and now info in TWoIaF suggest that it was the Long Night that threw the seasons out of balance in the first place (and we may speculate that the coming new War for the Dawn against the Others could end with normal seasons being restored; GRRM has also 100% promised that we will get an explanation for the crazy seasons before the end of the series).

The seasons certainly do effect Essos, just not quite as quickly or badly: the canals of Braavos are freezing over, the Dothraki Sea is wilting and storms are ravaging the Narrow Sea.

Ran has an interesting discussion on the topic here.

[ummester]

Thanks for Ran's discussion Werthead, it was interesting and did suggest the most reasonable/logical way to resolve the weather is regarding the planet's axial tilt. The article also said that it may not be the case, as GRRM may give an entirely magical description that doesn't take it into account.

I would now suggest that, if the tale of ASoIaF is based on any logic/current scientific understanding at all, then the moon leaving the planet's orbit and the Long Night must represent a time when the planet was both thrown off its original axis and out of its original orbit around the sun. If something like this did happen, applying any Earth understanding of temperate zones and equators to the maps would be moot, because we have no basis for comparison, with a very regular yearly orbit around our own sun.

If the explanation is entirely magical/human heart in conflict with itself, then it is even more ridiculous to try and apply Earth understanding of where an equator should be to the maps provided. They can be wherever the magical human heart desires them :D

[Waters Gate]

Dude, you can't say your wrong. Point blank, without knowing where the axis of rotation for this planet is.

I think though the reason why people have issue's with youre perception on the planets axial tilt is that there might be loads of issue's with it which are hard to perceive for the untrained astronomer, no't that i'm breaking off youre attempt, i have found that stuff interresting aswell. Eitherway, i'm not sure if i even understand youre theory well, but let me give my perceptions of things a large deviation in axial tilt might entail:

In principle, our planet has some axial tilt, and it's somewhat off from the magnetic north. The axial tilt we have determine in part seasons, and are the reason why it's aking to be 6 months night and 6 months day at the pole.

if our planet would change tilt:

-If our planet would tilt more towards the magnetic north, or say the same plane the sun is on, then season would stop or weaken, and there would be a place on the magnetic north and south pole where there woudl be sun all year trough.

- if the planet would tilt more away from magnetic north, then the seazons would change more strongly, with greater variations trough the year, harder winters and hotter summers, and the area where there is 6 months day or night goes down more south.

For what regards planetos, obviously, just like our planet, it does have a axial tilt that deviates somewhat from its magnetic north, or atleast the north of the Sun i guess. If Planetos axis would be aligned with it's sun then there would be no seasons. Westeros has seasons, and furthermore days shorten and lenghten, and the sun changes it's course along the horizon somewhat, lever or higher depending on the season. Atleast that is for what regards its normal seasons, a long night is something different afcourse.

So, could the long night and cold be the result maybe of a sudden axial tilt change? Axial tilts of planets can change, fairly sudden too give al the crazy things that can theoreticly happen in space. Collision betwen objects in space of various size often change tilt i gather, although those are rather violent affairs on their own. i'm not sure of other ways in which it can happen. That said, it has complications, depending how much it changes. The first thing that changes is the starmap obviously, sudently the stars might be very different indeed, star systems people in the north might never have witnessed even. Many places at the souther hemisphere cannot see the pole star, just as people in the northern hemisphere cannot see all the southern stars.

If the planet tilts so much as to put the pole's at the equator, well then there is still going to be day and night, but there is going to be some time along the new equator, which might say be a meridian line from pole to pole otherwise, where there is no light for months, probably about 3 months i'd guess. Weater on the new equator, where the south and north pole presumably are along, is so extreme that it's a pole ,region in winter and a blazing inferno in summer.

The long night lasted supposedly a generation. An Axial titl change rather than creating a long period of 1 sort of weather would rather i guess make things more wild, going from very cold to quite hot, and days would change too but al places would still get light and heat at some point in the year, as the planet still turns afterall.

Really if you want to fix a winter for a few decade's, rather than thinking so much about axial tilt, it would rather be more handy if the planet stopped turning, or turned in such a way in combination to its rovolution to the sun that there was always 1 side facing the sun and 1 side facing cold space. Mercury is very much like that, Scalding hot at one side and freezing on the other.

[Edd fetch me the boo box]

Dude, you can't say your wrong. Point blank, without knowing where the axis of rotation for this planet is.

I know what an equator is - I was suggesting that it may not be where people think it is on this planet.

The best evidence to condradict my theory has nothing to do with vegetation or crap like that - because wherever you put the equator on the maps provided doesn't equal Earth. We don't have savannahs in the east.

The best and only evidence to contradict it is the north star remaining in a relatively northerly position for summer and winter.

Everything else is mute - just because people have been assuming for a long time what they think the map represents in Earth terms, it can all be thrown out the window tomorrow.

And there is still nothing to prove where the equator is on the maps provided. All that can be disproven is that the planet doesn't wobble as much on it's axis of rotation as I thought. It is far more stupid to assume cultures represented in ASoIaF could draw an accurate equatorial map than the maps being all over the shop with regards to the equator.

I'll laugh my ass off, if in the next book, Dany does sail east to Asshai, south past Ulthos and come up under or west of Westeros.

Everything else is moot*. You can't try to refute an argument and have horrible grammar and spelling. ;)

Regardless... Nope. North, on our earth if you look at it, is perpindicular to the equator going toward the north pole. North is north, regardless of the tilt of the planet. If the planet spins down and left in relation to the "equator", that line isn't the equator, the equator is the exact line in between the poles, equally separating the planet's northern and southern hemispheres. We know the cardinal directions in the books are the same as IRL. Therefore, no matter what happens, north is north. The equator, by definition can't run the way you're saying.

[ummester]

I think though the reason why people have issue's with youre perception on the planets axial tilt is that there might be loads of issue's with it which are hard to perceive for the untrained astronomer, no't that i'm breaking off youre attempt, i have found that stuff interresting aswell. Eitherway, i'm not sure if i even understand youre theory well, but let me give my perceptions of things a large deviation in axial tilt might entail:

In principle, our planet has some axial tilt, and it's somewhat off from the magnetic north. The axial tilt we have determine in part seasons, and are the reason why it's aking to be 6 months night and 6 months day at the pole.

if our planet would change tilt:

-If our planet would tilt more towards the magnetic north, or say the same plane the sun is on, then season would stop or weaken, and there would be a place on the magnetic north and south pole where there woudl be sun all year trough.

- if the planet would tilt more away from magnetic north, then the seazons would change more strongly, with greater variations trough the year, harder winters and hotter summers, and the area where there is 6 months day or night goes down more south.

For what regards planetos, obviously, just like our planet, it does have a axial tilt that deviates somewhat from its magnetic north, or atleast the north of the Sun i guess. If Planetos axis would be aligned with it's sun then there would be no seasons. Westeros has seasons, and furthermore days shorten and lenghten, and the sun changes it's course along the horizon somewhat, lever or higher depending on the season. Atleast that is for what regards its normal seasons, a long night is something different afcourse.

So, could the long night and cold be the result maybe of a sudden axial tilt change? Axial tilts of planets can change, fairly sudden too give al the crazy things that can theoreticly happen in space. Collision betwen objects in space of various size often change tilt i gather, although those are rather violent affairs on their own. i'm not sure of other ways in which it can happen. That said, it has complications, depending how much it changes. The first thing that changes is the starmap obviously, sudently the stars might be very different indeed, star systems people in the north might never have witnessed even. Many places at the souther hemisphere cannot see the pole star, just as people in the northern hemisphere cannot see all the southern stars.

If the planet tilts so much as to put the pole's at the equator, well then there is still going to be day and night, but there is going to be some time along the new equator, which might say be a meridian line from pole to pole otherwise, where there is no light for months, probably about 3 months i'd guess. Weater on the new equator, where the south and north pole presumably are along, is so extreme that it's a pole ,region in winter and a blazing inferno in summer.

The long night lasted supposedly a generation. An Axial titl change rather than creating a long period of 1 sort of weather would rather i guess make things more wild, going from very cold to quite hot, and days would change too but al places would still get light and heat at some point in the year, as the planet still turns afterall.

Really if you want to fix a winter for a few decade's, rather than thinking so much about axial tilt, it would rather be more handy if the planet stopped turning, or turned in such a way in combination to its rovolution to the sun that there was always 1 side facing the sun and 1 side facing cold space. Mercury is very much like that, Scalding hot at one side and freezing on the other.

Yes, Waters Gate, that the planet spun off axis during the Long Night is exactly what I am suggesting.

For a generation, when the Others came, The Lands of Always Winter probably had no sunlight at all. The planet was still re-aligning, during this time. The moon also left orbit during this time.

Once re-aligned, the planet had a different axial tilt and different orbit around the sun to what it did beforehand.

The bit that seems to cause the most grievance is that I suggest Ulthos is now the approximate location of the south pole. It is not on the equator and the maps we have seen are not truly aligned to North.

This does not have to mean that Planetos is significantly smaller than Earth, only that the equator sits somewhere just above Dorne and, rather than running directly west, runs a little north and west. The continent of Essos spills both east and south from Westeros, more than the maps indicate.

[ummester]

Everything else is moot*. You can't try to refute an argument and have horrible grammar and spelling. ;)

Regardless... Nope. North, on our earth if you look at it, is perpindicular to the equator going toward the north pole. North is north, regardless of the tilt of the planet. If the planet spins down and left in relation to the "equator", that line isn't the equator, the equator is the exact line in between the poles, bisecting the planet's northern and southern hemispheres. We know the cardinal directions in the books are the same as IRL. Therefore, no matter what happens, north is north. The equator, by definition can't run the way you're saying.

Ok mr spelling cop - where are the poles on Planetos? Where are the hemispheres? What makes you so sure you know where these elements are on maps that have been drawn with the supposed skill of medieval cartographers?

We have never seen a global view of the planet. GRRM has never said where the equator is. All we have is conjecture of people trying to match the planet to Earth when clearly it isn't, because it has totally different seasons to Earth which must indicate a totally different orbit around its sun.

And, how do the people on Planetos gauge what North is? Earlier it was shown there was only one usage of the word compass in the entire text and that was to describe a table.

The only other way they can gauge it is with stars and where the sun rises and falls.

[Waters Gate]

Yes, Waters Gate, that the planet spun off axis during the Long Night is exactly what I am suggesting.

For a generation, when the Others came, The Lands of Always Winter probably had no sunlight at all. The planet was still re-aligning, during this time. The moon also left orbit during this time.

But its impossible to make it perma dark anywhere on planetos for over 6 months with axial tilt alone. Because the side that is in the dark when the planet is at one side of the sun, will be the side thzt will be in the light when the planet is on the other side of the sun.

T make it perma dark for over a year on the planet, either the axis would need to change as the planet is turning around the planet trough the year, or otherwise you could also do it with making the earth stop spinning, which could also put a side in perma dark. making the earht stop spinning in relation to the sun is the easiest way, but then thas quite a difference from changing it's axial tilt.

Once re-aligned, the planet had a different axial tilt and different orbit around the sun to what it did beforehand.

How do you mean different orbit?

[ummester]

But its impossible to make it perma dark anywhere on planetos for over 6 years with axial tilt alone. Because the side that is in the dark when the planet is at one side of the sun, will be the side thzt will be in the light when the planet is on the other side of the sun.

T make it perma dark for over a year on the planet, either the axis would need to change as the planet is turning around the planet trough the year, or otherwise you could also do it with making the earth stop spinning, which could also put a side in perma dark. making the earht stop spinning in relation to the sun is the easiest way, but then thas quite a difference from changing it's axial tilt.

How do you mean different orbit?

Different orbit around its sun to what it had before the Long Night.

And yes, to make it permadark, during the Long Night, one area of the planet was constantly facing away from the sun. It hadn't stopped spinning, it was just spinning on an axis that was horizontal to its solar orbit - it was in a generation long adjustment phase.

During the Long Night the axis went through a complete loops, in all directions. Perhaps the whole time the planet was trying to find it's new orbit, with one moon less, it had no poles at all.

Some of the links I posted in the other thread showed that complete polar reversal is theorised to have happened more than once on Earth - and that is with Earth keeping it's orbit. Imagine if a planet had no distinct poles and no distinct orbit, for a period of time. On Planetos, this period of time would be known as the Long Night for some and probably the Long Day for others, say from Southeros.

[Waters Gate]

And yes, to make it permadark, during the Long Night, one area of the planet was constantly facing away from the sun. It hadn't stopped spinning, it was just spinning on an axis that was horizontal to its solar orbit - it was in a generation long adjustment phase.

Even if a planet is spinning on an axis horizontal towards the sun, then still the side thats in the dark when the planet is one one side of the sun, will be the side that will be in the light when the planet is on the opposite side. In order to get the same side that was in the dark on one side again in the dark on the other side, or ever other side trough the year by axial tilt, then the axial tilt of the planet would neet to change at an exact constant rate as to change 180 degrees ever 6 monts, and make a whole turn thus every year,conveniently.

I'm not sure though for what convoluted reason for heavens sake the axial tilt of the planet should change sudently to 360 degres per year..... why?

[ummester]

Even if a planet is spinning on an axis horizontal towards the sun, then still the side thats in the dark when the planet is one one side of the sun, will be the side that will be in the light when the planet is on the opposite side. In order to get the same side that was in the dark on one side again in the dark on the other side, or ever other side trough the year by axial tilt, then the axial tilt of the planet would neet to change at an exact constant rate as to change 180 degrees ever 6 monts, and make a whole turn thus every year,conveniently.

I'm not sure though for what convoluted reason for heavens sake the axial tilt of the planet should change sudently to 360 degres per year..... why?

It could only have been spinning horizontal for that period it was out of orbit, after it lost the moon. It may not have been a complete orbit of the sun, just an orbital drift - that lasted a generation. During the Long Night, Planetos may not have had an orbit.

Then, when the planet reclaimed a new orbit, with it's single moon, the axis re-aligned and the new seasons came into effect.

This new orbit is not stable, however, because the seasons are not consistent.

Pre Long Night - orbit 1, axis 1, year 1, quarterly seasons.

Magical event, moon leaves orbit

Long Night - no orbit, off axis, no years, no seasons

Continents change, oceans rise and fall, single moon finds new orbit around planet, planet finds new orbit around sun

Post Long Night - orbit 2 (unstable), axis 2 (relatively stable) year 2 (relatively stable), seasons unstable

Actually, bear with me as I'm thinking as I type - this is where the comet may come in. The comet could be the old moon, or a piece of it. Whenever Planetos gets close to it's original disruption position, the comet is seen.

[Waters Gate]

You know with all that thinking work youre done on it, you might aswell give it it's own thread.

[ummester]

I'm trying to work out theories for all the other stuff to, before I post a - what I think is happening on Planetos thread :D

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack yours. I agreed with your OP - that Asshai is very relevant to what is happening in Westeros/Lands of Always Winter. And that the ash cloud has something to do with the original dragons.

But I also can't shake the idea that the shadow over Asshai has something to do with the south pole. That passing under the shadow is just changing direction.

[Edd fetch me the boo box]

Ok mr spelling cop - where are the poles on Planetos? Where are the hemispheres? What makes you so sure you know where these elements are on maps that have been drawn with the supposed skill of medieval cartographers?

We have never seen a global view of the planet. GRRM has never said where the equator is. All we have is conjecture of people trying to match the planet to Earth when clearly it isn't, because it has totally different seasons to Earth which must indicate a totally different orbit around its sun.

And, how do the people on Planetos gauge what North is? Earlier it was shown there was only one usage of the word compass in the entire text and that was to describe a table.

The only other way they can gauge it is with stars and where the sun rises and falls.

It isn't spelling. It is a completely different word with a completely different meaning.

North. It's a direction, the opposite of south. It isn't up for debate that Martin aligned the maps to correspond to the cardinal directions of the real world. I would stop reading if his biggest twist was "LULZ THE MAP WUZ CROOKED". It isn't a matter of opinion, it is a matter of fact. The fact that you're holding out hope that the map isn't lined up to the cardinal directions is incredible to me. I'm done with this.

[H0X0]

Magnetic and rotational north are roughly aligned.

They speak of queer lights shimmering in the sky, where the deamon mother of the ice giants dances eternally through the night, seeking to lure men northward to their doom.

Clearly an aurora, charged particles impinging on the magnetosphere, traveling along the field lines, the iridescing as the impact the atmosphere... At the magnetic poles.

(Oh, and the magnetic poles have nothing to do with the seasons or the axial tilt)