Tywin Planning War?

[Chaircat Meow]

Personally I don't think he fully invaded because he wanted Edmure to strike first in Westerland territory so he can claim that he was only acting in self defence. The whole point of Gregor riding without banners was to both provoke and to have plausible deniability. So he could still be on Roberts goodside.

That's what Ned thought. But Ned could only guess at Tywin's motivations.

I actually think his daughter killing Robert actually screwed things up for him. Had he know of a potential Civil War he would have been courting the likes of the Freys and other Riverland Houses from the start rather than burning bridges(so to speak).

He really does not act like it did. He never mentions this as a problem at all.

Can you refresh my memory on the Arryn & Stannis quotes(just the general gist of it would be OK and which book).

There are kind of a lot of pieces of evidence for this dotted around. Here is a little appetizer.

Lord Tywin's face gave no hint of his feelings. ''There is Lysa Arryn to deal with as well. Jon Arryn's widow, Hoster Tully's daughter, Catelyn Stark's sister ... whose husband was conspiring with Stannis Baratheon at the time of his death.''

SoS Tyrion, UK Hardback p. 211

[Ramsay Gimp]

Can you refresh my memory on the Arryn & Stannis quotes(just the general gist of it would be OK and which book).

In addition to what Meow's quote, Tywin says to Tyrion in AGOT (paraphrase) "From the beginning I thought Stannis was a greater threat than all the rest combined...but he does nothing except gather swords." So Catelyn Stark, a Tully by birth, kidnapped his son, but Tywin was still worried about Stannis Baratheon. Which suggests he was aware of some of the plotting going on in KL, and knew there was a grave threat against his entire dynasty

[thelittledragonthatcould]

That's what Ned thought. But Ned could only guess at Tywin's motivations.

He really does not act like it did. He never mentions this as a problem at all.

There are kind of a lot of pieces of evidence for this dotted around. Here is a little appetizer.

SoS Tyrion, UK Hardback p. 211

Well yeah, that quote hardly proves anything as its Tywin speaking to Rowan, Tyrell and Redwyne. I doubt he was going to tell them that he was planning a war.

Tywin was aware that Stannis and Arryn were close before Jons death and Stannis fled. It is only natural that he wonders in retrospect if it had anything to do with Stannis wanting the Throne.

If it was a conversation between just Tywin, Tyrion and/or Cersei I'd consider it to be something more but considering the audience I don't think this was a revelation of pre-planning.

In addition to what Meow's quote, Tywin says to Tyrion in AGOT (paraphrase) "From the beginning I thought Stannis was a greater threat than all the rest combined...but he does nothing except gather swords." So Catelyn Stark, a Tully by birth, kidnapped his son, but Tywin was still worried about Stannis Baratheon. Which suggests he was aware of some of the plotting going on in KL, and knew there was a grave threat against his entire dynasty

Well yeah, Stannis does seem more dangerous than Renly, Cat, Mace and Robb.

If he really knew that Robert was going to die and war was imminent then why concentrate on the Riverlands and not Dragonstone. Why not neutralize Stannis before he can even make a claim. Why piss off one of the regions, the Riverlands, that he could actually try to get support from.

To me Tywin is acting very cavalier at the start of the War, like someone who thought that Robert Baratheon would have his back against the Riverlands. Had he been expecting the Stormlands,(Stannis and Renly), the Vale(Jon and Lysa), and parts of the Crownlands all to be against him he would have been courting more Lords from the Riverlands and the Reach rather than alienating them.

And this conversation between Tyrion and Tywin makes it sound like Tywin went to war for his son.

"Kind of you to go to war for me," he said as he climbed into a chair and helped himself to a cup of his father's ale.

"By my lights, it was you who started this," Lord Tywin replied. "Your brother Jaime would never have meekly submitted to capture at the hands of a woman."

"That's one way we differ, Jaime and I. He's taller as well, you may have noticed."

His father ignored the sally. "The honor of our House was at stake. I had no choice but to ride. No man sheds Lannister blood with impunity."

edit: It's weird disagreeing with the two of you on anything :crying:

[Ramsay Gimp]

edit: It's weird disagreeing with the two of you on anything :crying:

:cheers: At least we all agree there was some logic and planning going on. A good number of people seem to think Tywin just said "I've been insulted! How dare they!" and marched off to war without thinking of the consequences

Well yeah, Stannis does seem more dangerous than Renly, Cat, Mace and Robb.

But why would Tywin view Stannis as the greatest threat "from the beginning" unless he knew there was a deeper conspiracy going on than just the Starks seizing Tyrion?

We know Varys at least kept him informed that Stannis was gathering men and ships, and Tywin is not the type to ignore such warnings. I also find it hard to believe that a man as rich, powerful and connected as Tywin, who ruled as Hand for 20 years, would not his own spies in KL. These spies could have told him of Jon Arryn, Stannis, or Ned's snooping, as well as Stannis' flight to Dragonstone.

If he really knew that Robert was going to die and war was imminent then why concentrate on the Riverlands and not Dragonstone. Why not neutralize Stannis before he can even make a claim. Why piss off one of the regions, the Riverlands, that he could actually try to get support from.

I'm not necessarily claiming he knew Robert would die, just that he was aware of the threat posed by Stannis and co.

Tywin has very little influence on Dragonstone, and the Starks have better connections in the Riverlands. He seems to have put all his eggs in the royal basket; the Lannisters have enormous influence at Court but very little over neighboring regions. Rather than lose possibly precious time trying to court these Houses, he planned to seize the initiative and smash them quickly in order to give his House a better starting position(which worked great in the Riverlands before Robb showed up)

To me Tywin is acting very cavalier at the start of the War, like someone who thought that Robert Baratheon would have his back against the Riverlands. Had he been expecting the Stormlands,(Stannis and Renly), the Vale(Jon and Lysa), and parts of the Crownlands all to be against him he would have been courting more Lords from the Riverlands and the Reach rather than alienating them.

And this conversation between Tyrion and Tywin makes it sound like Tywin went to war for his son.

When does he seem cavalier? That wasn't my impression in AGOT, except for a bit of overconfidence re. Robb.

And who says he wasn't reaching out to any of these lords? On the Northern side know Manderly and Bolton received offers from Tywin at some point, so I don't see why he wouldn't have tried with other lords as well. Mace Tyrell rebelling kind of came out of nowhere, so Tywin wouldn't have been focused on the Reach before they crowned Renly. We also know that he was going to foster Robin Arryn, potentially giving him a hostage over the Vale (credit to Meow for pointing this out)

That snippet with Tyrion does make it seem rather straightfrorward, but is contradicted by the facts and order of events. First, Tywin reacts to Tyrion's arrest with the initial raids by Gregor, done without banners, etc. We are later told that Tywin did this to lure out Ned Stark, who would then be captured and hopefully traded for Tyrion. So he did care about Tyrion, at least for honor's sake. But I think these raids also had the purpose (as observed by Ned himself) of spreading out the Tully forces in preparation for the larger war that was coming. Provoking Edmure into invading the West is an interesting interpretation, but seems to contradict provoking Edmure into dispersing his troops (since he would need a unified host to invade the West). I go with the latter.

But Tywin and Jaime's actual invasion doesn't come until after Robert has died, Ned Stark has been arrested for plotting with Stannis, and Renly had fled the capital. At that point Tywin obviously has much bigger fish to fry than getting Tyrion back, but (unless I'm misunderstanding) you seem to think that was still his primary motivation. However, given what Tywin knew, taking out the Riverlands would actually have made sense even if Tyrion had never been nabbed. The North is bound to respond to Ned's arrest, and the Tullys are their allies and kin. Factor in the fact that Ned was supporting Stannis, and I think Tywin's aggressive moves start to look a lot like pre-emptive defense

[Dorian Martell]

It seems to me rather odd because Tywin hired the Brave Companions which had to have been done I would say almost before. Tywins planned raids and attacks on the Riverlands seem to be him preparing and waiting for Roberts death seems rather strange don't you think. This could all be due to the time it takes messages and information to be passed, it could be a factor. It seems to me Tywin was already building up his war machine, which is for what I have no idea I think it could be the fact that he heard that Robert was going to make Eddard Stark Hand of the King. I remember in interviews with Martin him saying that Robert never trusted Tywin or he doesn't fully trust the Lannister to which its strange because he could have gone after Tywin to be Hand of the King. He was a great administrator during Aerys reign but maybe Robert knew that Lannisters wanted to increase their power in the Seven Kingdoms with people like Grand Maester Pycelle being Tywins agent.

Though Robert doesn't blame Tywin for the Sack of King's Landing it is rather odd I would say that Robert did not go for Tywin to be hand after Jon Arryn died, to which I think Tywin expected Robert to do but instead he choose Ned Stark. I think Tywin knew Eddard Stark was going to be a problem and realized Ned could bring up old bad blood over the Sack all over again. Its kinda like when Oberyn Martell came and his appearance was a huge problem for the Lannisters.

Tywin was Lord Paramount and Warden of the west. As supreme commander of a kingdom with a reputation like Tywin and with a high speed communication system, calling his banners would be no problem. As for hiring a sell sword company from essos, as the father of the queen he probably could have an agent dispatched at the first sign if war. It need not be a grand plan, he was just a dutifully prepared Lord paramount that never left his kingdom weak or unprepared

[thelittledragonthatcould]

But why would Tywin view Stannis as the greatest threat "from the beginning" unless he knew there was a deeper conspiracy going on than just the Starks seizing Tyrion?

From the beginning of what? From when Robert died, war actually broke out or from when Renly called his banners. The sentence is a little vague.

Stannis is both stubborn and capable. A deadly combination in someone with a chip on their shoulder about their station in life. Other potential threats could be negotiated or beaten on the battlefield. Stannis is unbending.

When does he seem cavalier? That wasn't my impression in AGOT, except for a bit of overconfidence re. Robb.

The start of the campaign and the potential consequences of fighting the Riverlands, once he finds out that Ned has been executed he becomes more grounded

And who says he wasn't reaching out to any of these lords? On the Northern side know Manderly and Bolton received offers from Tywin at some point, so I don't see why he wouldn't have tried with other lords as well.

Well the obvious one to reach out to would have been his relatives the Freys, the second most powerful House in the Riverlands, and we know he has had no contact with Walder from his conversation with Cat at the Twins. We also know that he has not been in contact with any of the IronLords.

Had Tywin been planning on being involved in a Civil War he would have tried to get their support and the other Riverland Houses who were not 100% behind Hoster.

Attacking potential allies is awfully cavalier if he already knew that the North, Vale, Stormlands and parts of the Crownlands would be against him.

Mace Tyrell rebelling kind of came out of nowhere, so Tywin wouldn't have been focused on the Reach before they crowned Renly. We also know that he was going to foster Robin Arryn, potentially giving him a hostage over the Vale (credit to Meow for pointing this out)

He was going to foster Robin when Jon was alive. Why would Jon give him a hostage if he was conspiring against Tywin and his children?

But Tywin and Jaime's actual invasion doesn't come until after Robert has died, Ned Stark has been arrested for plotting with Stannis, and Renly had fled the capital.

It also comes after the Battle of Golden Tooth when Tywin has a legitimate reason to strike back. Tywin can then turn to Robert and state that he had no choice but to strike back as Riverland soldiers first kidnapped his son and then they invaded his territory while denying that his man Clegane was ever in the Riverlands.

Had he known that Robert was about to die there is no way he would have Jaime leading an army as his presence would be needed in Kings Landing.

If he truly suspected that there were factions trying too usurp Joffreys crown he would have sent more men to protect the Royal family, instead it is left to the easily bought Gold Cloaks to do the job.

"The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands . . . enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back"

112 is not really a lot if Tywin actually thinks that Ned, Stannis and Jon are all plotting against him. Nor do we see him send a host back like Ned is worried about, they are only sent much later with Tyrion after news has reached that Ned is dead and Renly has married Maegary and been crowned.

It is not conclusive either way, but from my reading I dont think Tywin every thought it would actually go to war. He was expecting him to threaten the Tullys into releasing Tyrion but then Edmure sent men to the Golden Tooth, Robert died, Ned imprisoned and chaos ensued with Robb coming on the scene.

IMHO Tywin would have played it a lot more cautious if he truly thought there was going to be a Civil War and his preparation would have included a larger and superior sellsword company to the Brave Companions.