The Agents of Chaos: Spies, Spymasters and Their Tradecraft in Westeros Part 2: The Power of Suggestion

[BryndenBFish]

Spoiler Warning: This essay contains minor spoilers for The Winds of Winter.

Introduction

In terms of mysteries in A Song of Ice and Fire, there are major ones that exist (e.g. Jon’s parentage, the true identity of Aegon VI, who wrote the Pink Letter etc), middling mysteries (e.g. Who is the Hooded Man in Winterfell?) and minor ones (What happened to Weasel?) However, there are a handful of mysteries that belie categorization. One of the more interesting ones is how Stannis Baratheon discovered the parentage of Cersei’s children. It seems like a question with a relatively straightforward answer. He figured it out on his own.

But did he actually figure this out on his own? Or did he come across this information in a different way? In part 1 of the Agents of Chaos series, we puzzled out the identity of Taena Merryweather as an agent of Varys’. In part 2, we shift our focus from Varys to Littlefinger, but our focus will be on his methods of spreading chaos, and I’ll make a plausible case that Littlefinger was responsible for Stannis discovering the parentage of Cersei’s children with a bonus section of who Littlefinger’s unwitting agents might possibly be.

The Motivations of a Gambler

Littlefinger the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing.” (AGOT, Arya III)

Littlefinger’s motivations for what he does has been of interest to me for a long time. I think that Littlefinger’s motivation in sowing discord in the realm is three-fold.“

• First, I think that Littlefinger is inspired by personal grudge against a nobility that looked down on his Braavosi origins and his father’s low station. A sub-motivation is that Littlefinger’s personal grudge was widened by his shameful interactions with House Tully & House Stark in his youth. As a young man, he lost the girl (Catelyn Tully) to Brandon Stark. After his wounding, his one-night stand with Lysa Tully & subsequent expulsion from Riverrun for this act by Hoster Tully, he developed a life-long hatred of House Stark & House Tully.
  
• Littlefinger has an inferiority complex — that is, he makes aggressive moves as compensation for his small physical stature. Littlefinger’s inferiority complex is augmented by his narcissism which has a component of extreme risk-taking.
  
• Littlefinger is also motivated to improve his own station in life both in terms of personal enrichment and in increasing his power, hence the probable massive amounts of embezzlement that he pulled off as Master of Coin.
  

The Methods of the Mockingbird

Littlefinger plays the game of thrones much like a maniac poker player plays his cards — that is Littlefinger plays extremely aggressively, no matter how strong or weak his cards are. But like a good loose-aggressive player, he’s able to dial back and play cautiously when needed. Before we delve into Littlefinger & Stannis, let’s first examine an area where Littlefinger’s playing style is better explained: the Tyrell/Littlefinger conspiracy & the Purple Wedding.

If you’ll recall from A Clash of Kings, Littlefinger is dispatched by the Iron Throne in an attempt to form an alliance between House Lannister & House Tyrell. At Bitterbridge, he meets up with the Tyrells & Reacher Lords and convinces them to join with House Lannister against Stannis Baratheon.

At least that’s the common story. In reality, while Littlefinger did indeed create the alliance, he was playing a different game under the surface.

She (Olenna) asked pointed questions about Joffrey’s nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure… whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell’s servants. That is how the game is played. (ASOS, Sansa VI)

Outwardly, Littlefinger was singing the praises of Joffrey, but secretly, he had his men spread tales of Joffrey’s barbarity among the Tyrell servants. And if these servants of the Tyrells were any good, they would then tell their Tyrell masters of what they heard. But Littlefinger made other plays as well.

I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped the Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell’s army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. (ASOS, Sansa VI)

So, what does all of this tell us about how Littlefinger operates?

• First, while he does make extreme aggressive moves (telling Catelyn that the Valyrian dagger was Tyrion’s in the presence of Varys for instance), he can also act subtly too.
  
• Secondly, he uses intermediaries and others to do the real work of conveying what we really wants communicated.
  
• Thirdly, Littlefinger crafts his narrative through people & occupations that have a distinct appeal to those he wishes to actually adhere to his message. In this case, using singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield & Prince Aemon the Dragonknight was an ingenious way to appeal to traditional Tyrell sensibilities both as a medium (music is something that the Tyrells are fond of) and as a message (the heroism and valor of two Reacher knights was a particularly brilliant stroke)
  
• Fourthly (and most importantly for our purposes today), he pushes his true narrative through unwitting intermediaries. The Tyrell servants were not directly in Littlefinger’s employ, but they were his agents all the same by telling their masters the truth about Joffrey.
  

This brings us to Littlefinger’s role in leaking information about the parentage of Cersei’s children to Stannis.

How Did Littlefinger Find Out?

We know that Littlefinger knew about the parentage of Cersei’s children based on his conversation with Eddard Stark late in A Game of Thrones.

But how did he find out? Well, at least one of Robert Baratheon’s bastard children was born to a whore in King’s Landing at Chataya’s Brothel, and it’s probable that more bastards were fathered at various brothels around the city. And many of the brothels in King’s Landing are owned by Littlefinger (though not Chataya’s). While searching for more of Robert’s bastards, Eddard Stark was led to Chataya’s brothel by Littlefinger. So, Littlefinger knew at least one of the bastards specifically. Plus, he hints at knowing more than he’s letting on.

Littlefinger leaned forward. “Yet I’ll wager you did not drag me here in the black of night to discuss the eunuch.”

“No,” Ned admitted. “I know the secret Jon Arryn was murdered to protect. Robert will leave no trueborn son behind him. Joffrey and Tommen are Jaime Lannister’s bastards, born of his incestuous union with the queen.”

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. “Shocking,” he said in a tone that suggested he was not shocked at all. (AGOT, Eddard XIII)

So Littlefinger is aware of the appearance of Robert’s bastards. Moreover, he’s also aware of the appearance of Robert’s true born children. Given these two truths, one idea is that Littlefinger was able to put two-and-two together and determine the bastardy. Another possibility is that one of Littlefinger’s spies caught Jaime & Cersei clandestinely.

“Lord Baelish, what do you know of Robert’s bastards?”

“Well, he has more than you, for a start.”

“How many?”

Littlefinger shrugged. “Does it matter? If you bed enough women, some will give you presents, and His Grace has never been shy on that count.” (AGOT, Eddard IX)

Regardless of how Littlefinger discovered the truth, it’s clear that he knew ahead of Eddard knowing. It’s my estimation that this knowledge came well in advance of Ned’s arrival in King’s Landing. Enter Stannis Baratheon.

The Stannis Connection

“Lord Stannis,” she asked, “if you knew the queen to be guilty of such monstrous crimes, why did you keep silent?”

“I did not keep silent,” Stannis declared. “I brought my suspicions to Jon Arryn.” (ACOK, Catelyn III)

Stannis Baratheon’s early identity in A Song of Ice and Fire is shaped by his grudges against those who usurped his rightful kingship out from under him. He believed that Joffrey Baratheon was no true heir to the Iron Throne — that he was a bastard born of incest. But how did he come to this idea?

Steven Attewell makes the case that Stannis made the discovery on his own. As Varys himself says:

“It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. Besides, the bastards were there for all to see…he fathered eight, to the best of my knowing…their mothers were copper and honey, chestnut and butter, yet the babes were all black as ravens…so when Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen slid out between your sister’s thighs, each as golden as the sun, the truth was not hard to glimpse.” (ACOK, Tyrion III)

But is that really the case that Stannis just discovered the secret? I don’t think so. Let’s consider a few facts that aren’t in question:

• Stannis has been at the court of King’s Landing off-and-on for most of of Robert Baratheon’s reign.
  
• Thus, he’s born witness to the births & colorings of Joffrey, Myrcella & Tommen.
  
• Stannis knew the identity and appearance of Edric Storm due to him being conceived by Robert Baratheon & Delena Florent on his own marriage bed.
  
• Thus, Stannis was well-aware of the difference in coloring between at least one of Robert’s bastards & his true born children for something like 11-13 years. (Edric is born in 287 AC, Joffrey is born in 286/287 AC)
  

The timeline begs the question as to why Stannis suddenly had suspicions about the parentage of Cersei’s children at the time he did. Re-enter Littlefinger.

Littlefinger & the Power of Suggestion

While Varys & Illyrio might have wondered what game Littlefinger was playing, I think that we as readers can deduce a big part of Littlefinger’s motivation. Littlefinger’s primary motivation was to push the realm to chaos in order to punish those he held a grudge against all the while profiting handsomely off of the chaos. But the game that Littlefinger was playing was quite subtle. Consider what Varys tells Tyrion about the business of how Stannis found out about Cersei’s children.

“You missed a lively council. Stannis has crowned himself, it seems.”

“I know.”

“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”

“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” (ACOK, Tyrion III)

Was it Varys who whispered it? Unlikely. Recall that his desire was to delay chaos until they (Varys, Illyrio, Aegon VI) were ready. But Littlefinger had the motivation to kick chaos into motion. Now, the obvious, dumb play was to push the information about Cersei’s children to the king himself, Robert Baratheon. But that’s not a play that would net the chaos that Littlefinger needed. If Littlefinger were to sow the maximum amount of chaos in the realm, he couldn’t give the information to Robert, but to Stannis.

In Stannis, Littlefinger had a perfect candidate whose personality ensured that he would sow the maximum amount of chaos in the realm. Stannis’s personality is one where perceived and actual slights to his rights grate heavily against him. Stannis’s anger at being given Dragonstone instead of Storm’s End was legendary.

“Your brother has been the Lord of Storm’s End these past thirteen years. These lords are his sworn bannermen-“

“His,” Stannis broke in, “when by rights they should be mine. I never asked for Dragonstone. I never wanted it. I took it because Robert’s enemies were here and he commanded me to root them out. I built his fleet and did his work, dutiful as a younger brother should be to an elder, as Renly should be to me. And what was Robert’s thanks? He names me Lord of Dragonstone, and gives Storm’s End and its incomes to Renly. Storm’s End belonged to House Baratheon for three hundred years; by rights it should have passed to me when Robert took the Iron Throne.” It was an old grievance, deeply felt, and never more so than now. (ACOK, Prologue)

So, Littlefinger has the perfect foil for his plot in Stannis. He has a man who holds grudges due to perceived or real injustices done to him and someone who is a strong military commander, who could wreck havoc on the realm if given the chance. So, if Littlefinger figured out that Cersei’s children were bastards born of incest and was well-aware of Stannis’s personality, the value of Stannis’s throne being usurped by a bastard born of incest was astronomical.

But Stannis was a righteous man. Would a righteous man like Stannis listen to an immoral man and known liar like Littlefinger? Probably not. Stannis says this of Littlefinger:

‘‘Better a thief we know than one we don’t, the next man might be worse.’ Lord Petyr’s words in my brother’s mouth, I’ll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I’m certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself.” (ASOS, Samwell V)

Stannis’s use of the word corruption speaks to Stannis’ distaste of the man. I find it likely that Stannis had unconcealed contempt for Littlefinger at court and would likely never adhere to anything that Littlefinger might say openly to him. So, how did Littlefinger get around this inconvenient fact?

The Intermediaries

Let’s return again to the Tyrell story from A Storm of Swords. Littlefinger’s greatest coup was the Tyrell conspiracy. The fact that this was so well-executed likely speaks to the idea that this was a tactic that Littlefinger used before. The use of knowing & unknowing intermediaries to communicate his true message to those in power is known.

So, let me just lay all my cards on the table right now. I believe that Littlefinger used knowing & unknowing intermediaries to pass the information of the parentage of Cersei’s children onto Stannis. The same tactic that he used with the Tyrells is one that he used previously with Stannis. Knowing that Stannis would never listen to his words if Littlefinger were the speaker, I think that he used men whose words would be palatable to Stannis, instead of speaking them himself.

Stannis Baratheon trusted few people and no politicians. However, his reputation as a military commander was firm. And though he rarely listened to politicians and never trusted them, Stannis does have a history of listening to military advisers and acting on their advice. One of the best examples of this comes in A Dance with Dragons when Stannis changes his mind about the assault on the Dreadfort & decides to move against Deepwood Motte at the advisement of Jon Snow.

So, Stannis does listen to other military men. Littlefinger is likely aware of this, and so I think that Littlefinger leaked the information to military men close to Stannis. And these men were unwitting agents of Littlefinger’s in conveying Littlefinger’s message to Stannis. Here are my two suspects:

Ser Richard Horpe

Ser Richard Horpe is a knight in Stannis’s service in ADWD. In the march to Winterfell, Horpe acts as second in command to Stannis, but Horpe’s past is a bit more interesting. He’s said to have a love for battle and killing, and then there’s this curious passage.

“Horpe will take Val to wife if I command it, but it is battle he lusts for. As a squire he dreamed of a white cloak, but Cersei Lannister spoke against him and Robert passed him over.” (ADWD, Jon IV)

Ser Richard Horpe could have held a grudge against Cersei Lannister for speaking against his nomination to the Kingsguard. Would Littlefinger have used this knowledge to spread information about the bastardy of Cersei’s children? He could have. Using a past grudges as motivation is one that’s interesting given the Littlefinger grudge-as-motivation theory. But he’s not really my prime suspect.

Ser Justin Massey

Ser Justin Massey is introduced to us in ADWD as knight from the Crownlands. A glib man, Stannis tells us something interesting about Justin Massey.

“Massey wants the wildling princess too. He once served my brother Robert as squire and acquired his appetite for female flesh.” (ADWD, Jon IV)

As discussed earlier, Robert was known to frequent brothels throughout King’s Landing. It stands to reason that Robert introduced his squire to prostitution and that Justin

Massey’s “appetite for female flesh” came in part from patronage of brothels. Given his reputation for womanizing, I’ll make the small leap that this “appetite for female flesh” that Robert imbued into his squire extended to brothels.

Given that Massey was no longer Robert’s squire in A Game of Thrones, we have to assume that Massey was in Stannis’s service during events in A Game of Thrones. And given that Massey spent some time in King’s Landing — time that likely overlapped with the time that both Robert & Stannis were in King’s Landing in 297 — Massey could have been an unwitting agent of Littlefinger’s.

If he’s frequenting brothels, Littlefinger likely leaked the information about the bastardy of Cersei’s children through one of his whores to Massey. Throughout A Dance with Dragons, Massey gives off the air of being a gossip. He reports Stannis’s war councils back to Asha Greyjoy, his prisoner. Moreover, Stannis has this to say of Massey in sample Winds of Winter chapter:

“I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue.” (TWOW, Theon I)

Glib is not a word in common usage, but it is generally defined as “fluent and voluble but insincere and shallow.” More importantly, Stannis previously heeded Massey’s advice in a critical moment:

“Is that your counsel? That I should flee?” The king’s face darkened. “That was your counsel on the Blackwater as well, as I recall. When the battle turned against us, I let you and Horpe chivvy me back to Dragonstone like a whipped cur.”

“The day was lost, Your Grace.”

“Aye, that was what you said. ‘The day is lost, sire. Fall back now, that you may fight again.’ And now you would have me scamper off across the narrow sea… ” (TWOW, Theon I)

In my estimation, Justin Massey is the greater suspect as an unwitting agent of Littlefinger’s. Littlefinger leaked information to Massey through one of his whores and Massey reported the information on up to Stannis Baratheon.

In the End…

Regardless of whether any of the speculation about the unwitting agents of Littlefinger prove correct, it seems clear that there is strong circumstantial evidence that Littlefinger was behind Stannis’s discover of the truth about Cersei’s children, else why would Stannis and Jon Arryn be found searching brothels for Robert’s bastard children…

“Where did they (Stannis & Jon Arryn) go on these rides?” Ned asked.

“The boy says that they visited a brothel.”

“A brothel?” Ned said. “The Lord of the Eyrie and Hand of the King visited a brothel with Stannis Baratheon?” (AGOT, Eddard VI)

… unless they were directed there by someone — one who knew where to find Robert’s bastard children — maybe one who directed Eddard Stark to find Robert’s bastard Barra at Chataya’s brothel in King’s Landing.

Littlefinger was responsible, and his leak kicked the shitstorm of chaos into motion.

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[house of dayne]

thank you...excellent analysis..

[Walid Can]

Thanks for the well written and well researcherd posts.

It's funny that you forgot that there's a much simpler way for LF to plant the idea in stannis's head without using agents , by him making a remark on joffrey/myrcella/ tommen 's appearance or a joke the same way sansa did with ned , and that fits bettet since we know that all what stannis had was doubts at the time.

[BryndenBFish]

Thanks for the well written and well researcherd posts.

It's funny that you forgot that there's a much simpler way for LF to plant the idea in stannis's head without using agents , by him making a remark on joffrey/myrcella/ tommen 's appearance or a joke the same way sansa did with ned , and that fits bettet since we know that all what stannis had was doubts at the time.

Yes, that's possible that Littlefinger simply made an off-hand remark that caught Stannis's attention much as he did with Ned, but remember that Stannis does not trust Littlefinger at all. So, an off-handed remark would probably be rejected by Stannis as a manipulation. But the word of a trust soldier and knight in either Massey or Horpe? That's something that might plant suspicion in Stannis's mind.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Yes, that's possible that Littlefinger simply made an off-hand remark that caught Stannis's attention much as he did with Ned, but remember that Stannis does not trust Littlefinger at all. So, an off-handed remark would probably be rejected by Stannis as a manipulation. But the word of a trust soldier and knight in either Massey or Horpe? That's something that might plant suspicion in Stannis's mind.

As you know, I also believe it was Littlefinger who planted the information. At first I was somewhat doubtful about the third party theory though. But after reviewing your argument, especially in the case of Justin Massey, I have to say this seems a very likely way for LF to operate. I especially love the Robert's squire catch, and the connection of LF -> whores -> Massey -> Stannis.

Also given that Massey has been introduced to us as a character likely to reappear in TWoW, I can see a logical way for us to learn via an offhand remark that he does possess that knowledge.

All in all, well done! :cheers:

[Blackfish Tully]

Yes, that's possible that Littlefinger simply made an off-hand remark that caught Stannis's attention much as he did with Ned, but remember that Stannis does not trust Littlefinger at all. So, an off-handed remark would probably be rejected by Stannis as a manipulation. But the word of a trust soldier and knight in either Massey or Horpe? That's something that might plant suspicion in Stannis's mind.

It's likely that it was both . If Stannis is hearing rumors or comments from multiple sources that is more likely to convince him of the truth.

[Blackfish Tully]

Great post by the way. One of the best I've seen in a while.

[Ser RoddyRuinuous]

Hmm... some very interesting points. Especially about Massey. After reading TWOIAF, I get the feeling that the Masseys might be a slightly more important House than just some randos attached to Stannis. He could certainly work as a LF go-between. Hmm...

[DraculaAD1972]

Horpe may be connected to LF via symbolism of moths: the moths of his house sigil and the dream Ned has of LF's words appearing as grey moths.

[Sanset]

:thumbsup: Wow! I think it is a really good catch! I agree that if we have to chose only one messenger Justin Massey works better. But I think that Richard Horpe, as you've pointed out, has personals reasons to be angry with Cersei, so Petyr could have used him too. I think it wouldn't be difficult to make him hear about the issue, let's say, while drinking, and then wait to see who is the "bird that sings first". Something like Tyrion's strategy with Varys, Petyr and Pycelle about Myrcella's betrothal.

Besides, if the info reaches Stannis by two trustworthy sources it is more probable that the seed grows stronger. The more people spreading the gossip, the better for Petyr's plans to reach Stannis ears and the real source stays covered up that way, because no one really knows where the hit came from. That would fit your point about Stannis despise towards Petyr.

[Mithras]

It is a nice analysis, though I think the revelation might not come in the future.

I am more interested in LF's endgame. We thought he wanted Harrenhal but that was only a step to marry Lysa. He apparently used Sansa as a tool in he Purple Wedding but he did not have to include her to make things more complicated. The only reasonable explanation is that LF desires Sansa which means the marriage to Lysa was not an endgame too.

Part of why LF desires Sansa might be his boyhood traumas and his inferiority complex. However, he should have other motives than acquiring a Cat incarnate. I also do not believe he wants power for the sake of having power.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Horpe may be connected to LF via symbolism of moths: the moths of his house sigil and the dream Ned has of LF's words appearing as grey moths.

Interesting catch! Here's the quote from one of Ned's dreams in AGoT:

...it was Littlefinger, grinning, mocking him. When he opened his mouth to speak, his lies turned to pale grey moths and took wing.

If BBF is right about Horpe, this line could be highly significant :thumbsup:

[BryndenBFish]

Horpe may be connected to LF via symbolism of moths: the moths of his house sigil and the dream Ned has of LF's words appearing as grey moths.

That's awesome! Interesting evidence for the Horpe as unwitting agent theory! Curious whether it's coincidence, but that seems awfully specific.