A question about the Crown's debts.

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

I am well aware of both income and substitution effects. I am wonder if there is any data about elasticities of substitution and of income.

I don't know what you mean.

Anyway, it's much much easier for me or you to buy a bushel of corn than it was for a person in a medieval and starving King's Landing. So that would have to be kept in mind when comparing prices.

[OldGimletEye]

I don't know what you mean.

Anyway, it's much much easier for me or you to buy a bushel of corn than it was for a person in a medieval and starving King's Landing. So that would have to be kept in mind when comparing prices.

Start with the Slutsky Equation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slutsky_equation

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

Start with the Slutsky Equation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slutsky_equation

Hmm, it doesn't sound like this would support your equation between corn prices in a starving medieval city and corn prices today. It seems to add even further variables, such as food alternatives, albeit these variables are likely much less important than difficulty in corn production (lack of pesticides, machinery) or starvation.

Maybe I don't understand your point. But in that case, you should elaborate and explain your thinking.

[OldGimletEye]

Hmm, it doesn't sound like this would support your equation between corn prices in a starving medieval city and corn prices today. It seems to add even further variables, such as food alternatives, albeit these variables are likely much less important than difficulty in corn production (lack of pesticides, machinery) or starvation.

Maybe I don't understand your point. But in that case, you should elaborate and explain your thinking.

Did you read what I wrote? Seriously? I said I recognized that there were problems with my estimate because of income and substitution effects. Now go back and read my comments and try again. My estimate was intended to be very a crude one. I fully realize you'd need to come up with a better model for better estimates.

[Poodle Pup From Astapor]

Did you read I wrote? Seriously. I said I recognized that there were problems with my estimate because of income and substitution effects. Now go back and read my comments and try again. My estimate was intended to be a crude one. I fully realize you'd need to come up with a better model for better estimates.

Well, I think your estimation lacks at least one zero. I know you said it's "very crude" and "isn't precisely accurate", but I don't know if we have the same perception of how far off it is.

Anyway, you seem to be losing your temper, so I'll end that conversation here.

[OldGimletEye]

Well, I think your estimation lacks at least one zero. I know you said it's "very crude" and "isn't precisely accurate", but I don't know if we have the same perception of how far off it is.

I am certainly open to suggestions about the size of potential error. At some, point, when I get some time, I'd like to revisit the issue with a better model.

Anyway, you seem to be losing your temper, so I'll end that conversation here.

Losing my temper? Why, like Ernest King, I'm the most even tempered man you'll ever know. I am angry all the time. :cool4:

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I am certainly open to suggestions about the size of potential error. At some, point, when I get some time, I'd like to revisit the issue with a better model.

It doesn't matter. Depending on which good you choose to base your calculation on, you'll have up to 10,000% discrepancy between any two.

[OldGimletEye]

It doesn't matter. Depending on which good you choose to base your calculation on, you'll have up to 10,000% discrepancy between any two.

I don't think so. Financial historians have estimated the GDP per cap of medieval England. I am not sure of their exact methodology, but they are certainly aware of income and substitution effects. Of course, you are never going to get a precise estimate. But, I think its possible to get a reasonable range of plausible values.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I don't think so. Financial historians have estimated the GDP per cap of medieval England. I am not sure of their exact methodology, but they are certainly aware of income and substitution effects. Of course, you are never going to get a precise estimate. But, I think its possible to get a reasonable range of plausible values.

If you get an almost complete list of Westerosi goods with appropriate prices and the income of basically any distinct group, please tell me.

Otherwise, it's doomed to fail because of lacking data.

[SeanF]

What seems very curious was that Aerys's government was actually in financial sound position by Ned's account. We know that Aerys was fond of conceiving of grand and costly schemes (even if he never ended up carrying them out), and that the first thing Tywin did as Hand was to repeal all Egg's reforms that took the power away from the nobles and gave it to the people (and the Crown?), which probably meant lower taxation for the nobility. Duskendale rebels because the taxes (of a major port) are seen as too high - they might have just been greedy, but maybe this was actually stifling the trade? And crucially, any taxation fo trade still seems to go through the coffers of the noble families that own the city/port, like the Lannisters, Hightowers, Darklyns, Manderlys etc - we have no actual royal charters, no cities paying taxes directly to the Crown. Where is the IT getting its income from?

The IT probably gets a hefty rental income from KL, and rents and profits from the Crownlands. KL is also a big port, so customs will bring in a big income.

In theory, customs duties and other taxes should bring in a big income from the rest of the country, but my suspicion is most of the income remains with Lords Paramount, the Bannermen, and bureaucrats. Feudal dues, fines, confiscations will also produce an income.

[OldGimletEye]

If you get an almost complete list of Westerosi goods with appropriate prices and the income of basically any distinct group, please tell me.

Otherwise, it's doomed to fail because of lacking data.

There is some price data from the Middle Ages. If we were to assume that Westeros has about the same habits, then I think getting more precise estimates wouldn't be impossible( although yeah, there is always going to be some uncertainity). Particularly, if we were able to get a good idea about relative prices during that time.

I haven't read D & E, but isn't their mention of some prices there?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

In theory, customs duties and other taxes should bring in a big income from the rest of the country, but my suspicion is most of the income remains with Lords Paramount, the Bannermen, and bureaucrats. Feudal dues, fines, confiscations will also produce an income.

The custom duties the Crown gets from White Harbour o nit's own in two years are enough to build, equip and crew about fifty wargalleys.

That's a lot of money.

There is some price data from the Middle Ages. If we were to assume that Westeros has about the same habits, then I think getting more precise estimates wouldn't be impossible( although yeah, there is always going to be some uncertainity). Particularly, if we were able to get good idea about relative prices during that time.

I haven't read D & E, but isn't their mention of some prices there?

Dunk's new armor is worth four dragons. I did some calculations based on those and some cows once, with about 10,000 € per dragon, give or take.

That's a huge discrepancy compared to your estimates, but the calculation itself is sound. As is yours.

[SeanF]

The custom duties the Crown gets from White Harbour o nit's own in two years are enough to build, equip and crew about fifty wargalleys.

That's a lot of money.

Dunk's new armor is worth four dragons. I did some calculations based on those and some cows once, with about 10,000 per dragon, give or take.

That's a huge discrepancy compared to your estimates, but the calculation itself is sound. As is yours.

The only explanation I have for the Crown being heavily in debt is that money sticks to a lot of hands on the way up (as was true in many medieval States. )

As to Dunk's armour, assuming it's a pretty basic set of armour, I'd value one Dragon at 1-2 pounds sterling, c.1400 from Ian Mortimer's Time Traveller's

Guide to Medieval England.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The only explanation I have for the Crown being heavily in debt is that money sticks to a lot of hands on the way up (as was true in many medieval States. )

Of course.

But you have to take the financial situation and the barter part of the economy into account: Only cities provide a meaningful amount of taxes in coin. Farmer Pate gives some grain to his Lord and works a month on his Lord's projects, but he pays not a single penny in coin. And you can't ship 20,000 bushels of grain from let's say Pennytree to KL.

Only merchants and craftsmen regularly handle coin. Only in towns and cities are taxes paid in coin. Only there can the Crown gather their taxes.

That means KL (recently sacked) and Duskendale (sacked and economically ruined) are the prime sources of the Crown's income, with Lannisport (got a gigantic taxbreak a couple years ago) and Oldtown (same) as runners up. White Harbour and Gulltown pay similar, but are vastly smaller.

Driftmark has been ruined earlier.

At the end of Robert's Rebellion, the Crown's revenue streams were basically ruined while Robert had to pay for the war. And then he gave Dragonstone and it's incomes away as well.

Small wonder LF's predecessors were hard-pressed.

[Blackfish Tully]

The only explanation I have for the Crown being heavily in debt is that money sticks to a lot of hands on the way up (as was true in many medieval States. )

You are completely ignoring Tyrion's quote on what Littlefinger has been doing as Master of Coin.

He bought wagons, shops,ships , houses, grain, wool, linen & lent out gold all over Westeroes. You cannot do all that without incurring debt. He turned the Iron Bank into a commercial operation and like most commercial operation he acquired debt to buy inventory and expand operations. Debt in itself is not a bad thing (nearly every company and government has debt) as long as you can pay the interest and it seemed that Littlefinger had no trouble doing that.

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king's debts in promises, and put the king's gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

[OldGimletEye]

Dunk's new armor is worth four dragons. I did some calculations based on those and some cows once, with about 10,000 € per dragon, give or take.

That's a huge discrepancy compared to your estimates, but the calculation itself is sound. As is yours.

Well, certainly my estimates have some conceptual problems. However, I still would prefer "very crude" estimates as opposed to pure guessing. And your estimates, might even be closer to the mark. At least, though, our estimates have established a plausible range of values.

I still think tighter estimates might be possible if 1) you are willing to assume that Westeros is economically very similar to Medieval Europe, and 2) if you have some reasonable method of figuring out what people consumed in Medieval Europe and in what proportions. Also, understanding how things were relatively priced would be helpful I think. How many bushels of wheat could a suit of armor buy?

Of course, you are never going to get a precise estimate. A reasonable range, might be doable though, if things are thought out well enough.

[hodorisfaclessman]

You are completely ignoring Tyrion's quote on what Littlefinger has been doing as Master of Coin.

He bought wagons, shops,ships , houses, grain, wool, linen & lent out gold all over Westeroes. You cannot do all that without incurring debt. He turned the Iron Bank into a commercial operation and like most commercial operation he acquired debt to buy inventory and expand operations. Debt in itself is not a bad thing (nearly every company and government has debt) as long as you can pay the interest and it seemed that Littlefinger had no trouble doing that.

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king's debts in promises, and put the king's gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

This seems to fit

LF through his investment of the crowns finances as well as ridding all the incompetent lesser lordlings and replacing them with his own lowborn but competent men seems to have increased the crowns incomes vastly as tyrion says....... it simply wasnt enough to cope with roberts spemding.

Id imagine ruinious feasts and tourneys became commonplace on top of robert writing off debts owed the crown to please others.

Now did LF skim? probably as his men prob did too but then again their predecessors prob did as well

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Now did LF skim? probably as his men prob did too but then again their predecessors prob did as well

Skimming is the actual payment. These guys are expected to feed themselves from what they gather.

[SeanF]

You are completely ignoring Tyrion's quote on what Littlefinger has been doing as Master of Coin.

He bought wagons, shops,ships , houses, grain, wool, linen & lent out gold all over Westeroes. You cannot do all that without incurring debt. He turned the Iron Bank into a commercial operation and like most commercial operation he acquired debt to buy inventory and expand operations. Debt in itself is not a bad thing (nearly every company and government has debt) as long as you can pay the interest and it seemed that Littlefinger had no trouble doing that.

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king's debts in promises, and put the king's gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from

the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

But then, the government should be deriving a big cash income from all of these investments. The government isn't just heavily in debt, (which is no problem if the Crown has substantial assets to match) it's also short of money.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But then, the government should be deriving a big cash income from all of these investments. The government isn't just heavily in debt, (which is no problem if the Crown has substantial assets to match) it's also short of money.

Well, LF reinvested.

And lost it all when war broke out.