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[Book Spoilers] The Ides of Marsh or not?


NorthernBastard11

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After watching the first episode it appears that Jon's arc is moving quickly and can assume that the LC will be picked and a certain someone executed in the next couple of episodes. Whilst I initially thought Jon's assassination would happen in season 6 I can now see it happening in this season, possibly episode 9. Which brings me to the question of who is going to carry it out, with Bowen Marsh not having a developed character in the show, I personally think the assassination may fall to our good friend Dolourous Edd. Do you guys think we will see it this season and does anyone have any ideas on who it will be?

They had better not. They had just better not. :angry2:

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It's obvious that kid will take part in the assassination, in the same way it was obvious that he'd be the one to kill Ygritte. They aren't exactly being subtle with it. He was practically grinning at Mance's execution.





The issue I have with a character like Ollie doing it is how are we supposed to believe he has the influence to convince other Night's Watch brother's to carry out that kind of attack. In the novels, Marsh was developed as a leadership figure within the Watch, albeit not necessarily a good one. He had many friends and followers, with the necessary influence to convince those to follow him. Ollie is a ten year old recent recruit. I also think Edd is too close to John. IMO a strong candidate, in the absence of them developing the Marsh character this season, is Ser Alliser.





Who said Ollie has to be the one leading it?


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I think Ollie's been dangled in front of our faces too much for him to have no part in anything. IMO, either he's in with the Ides or gets killed after Jon has grown close to him, either in that incident, or maybe at Hardhome? I doubt he's going to go on his merry way as a new recruit, unimportant to any plot.

Edd I think is probably going to die at Hardhome. Bowen Marsh is cast, so I think they'll still have him orchestrate the Ides, but his character development will either be little, or play out at lightning speed because he's just going into the show. Either way, with the pace of Wall plot, I would be shocked if the Ides didn't happen this season, 9th/10th episode.

The issue I have with a character like Ollie doing it is how are we supposed to believe he has the influence to convince other Night's Watch brother's to carry out that kind of attack. In the novels, Marsh was developed as a leadership figure within the Watch, albeit not necessarily a good one. He had many friends and followers, with the necessary influence to convince those to follow him. Ollie is a ten year old recent recruit. I also think Edd is too close to John. IMO a strong candidate, in the absence of them developing the Marsh character this season, is Ser Alliser.

I can see Alliser developing a grudging respect for Jon this season, perhaps to the point where a viewer could believe he's no longer the obvious choice. Then boom, Alliser leads the mutiny against Jon. But not because of the petty quarrels they've had in the past, but because (and I think the show has done a good job of showing us this), Alliser does truly care about the Watch. He just doesn't think Jon is the right person to lead.

Yeah it makes sense for Marsh to orchestrate it, in this case Ser Alliser as Marsh isn't a good mix, Janos Slynt is good as a "illegitimate" opponent to Jon but there needs to be legitimate criticism of Jon which is where Ser Alliser is good in the books and we are avoiding cartoonishness.

He covered it excellently in E10 where Ser Alliser said there is always someone criticising you sometimes legitimately when talking about whether they should have blocked the tunnel so it is good they are setting this up for a reversal once Jon is LC

And of course Ser Alliser did a great organisation on top, made a great speech and fought very well even though viewers hate him because he is mean to Jon which I thought was great and they had Slynt do the opposite. Ser Alliser will be off-screen when Ides happens as in the books, perhaps he will be sent to take over Shadow Tower of Eastwatch or better yet re-open the Nightfort

As for the larger issues, Ollie is good there as an "anti-Sam", eg Sam has a legitimate relationship with Gilly, Jon has a legitimate relationship with Tormund so rather than making Ser Alliser as a cartoonishly "bad guy" in his suspicions of Wildlings having Ollie there as a child whose parents and entire Hamlet not only wiped out but got eaten by Wildlings is a great counter weight in the TV show to illustrate the legitimate side of Nights Watch suspicion.

Similarly I expect they are turning the already introduced Rattleshirt into the Weeper (already got the high vis Bone Armour) to act as a counter weight to the legitimate Tormund

If we look at the first episode they are setting the debate up nicely with that Sam/Gilly scene (lol at him avoiding combat training in front of her btw)

In short

Jon-Ser Alliser

Ollie-Sam

Slynt-Mance presumably

Tormund-Weeper

Mallister-Marsh

Ultimately I expect Ollie will play the Brutus role, Marsh will start it but having Ollie then spontaneously plunge the knife in afterwards will be the real big shock which actually make for good writing now that I have thought about it

It'll actually be like an anti-Crasters, eg we had the dubious Dirk/Karl Tanner and Rast knife Mormont, but imagine it was Edd or Grenn joining in that which is probably the point

In books and show I suspect this is the end of the Watch as an institution, it falls just as the Others will descend on the Wall which is where Hardhome makes sense, eg they are closing in

Worth mentioning I reckon the same thing is happening to the Iron Throne as an institution, Ser Robert Strong ascending to the Kingsguard ranks is a sign the Kingsguard is "dead on its feet" and the destruction of its honour so to speak and this will match up with Euron (Daario?) or Victarion killing Ser Barristan who is the last vestige of honour and integrity.

Reckon it will be Dany who destroys the Iron Throne and torches Kings Landing, and Drogon will melt it. This is all off topic though...

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Varamyr being in the show definitely makes me think that the Jon warging into Ghost is a sure thing, but he will stay in there a much shorter time than in the book before Mel steps up. He needs to die and have a funeral of sorts so that his 'watch can be ended' and be released honourably from his vows as he is really the 'true king'. Where that will lead I really have no idea, but it is important that as other claimants to the throne get killed off (and no Aegon?) that he can pop up to be potentially opposed to/allied with Dany and have all sorts of internal and external conflict. That is what Thrones is all about, after all.



The Ides of Whoever scene MUST surely be the end of season cliffhanger for maximum impact. That way it would be bigger than the Red Wedding. 9 months before the fallout episode. Killer!!!!!


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I would bet money Episode 10 does not feature "For the Watch". They have never ended the show on a cliffhanger of that magnitude, and I doubt it starts now. It wasn't even supposed to be a book cliffhanger if I remember correctly.

If it happens this season it will be how Episode 9 ends, and we will get the Wind's spoiler of his fate, or at minimum a HINT at his fate that can be pieced together on what will happen (live or die).

Why are you so certain that would not do it? Just because they have never had something of this magnitude does not mean they would not start now. If they done it, it would mean GOT was a talking point for a whole year, I would not put it past HBO. And about the sullied having to be spoilt, they could also do it in episode 9 and then not return to the wall in episode 10 and hence not spoiling winds and the fate of Jon.
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Pretty certain that the Ides of March is for S5, epi 10, though perhaps not the last scene.



Dany: Yunkai only demands for the pits to be reopened and is OK with slave trade being something of the past. Qarth can't be a threat anymore, as everybody's dead. Those pits will be reopened halfway through the season I suspect, so time enough for Dany to fly off with Drogon and Hizdar gets killed by the other two. I suspect she will rather join the Golden Company than the Dothraki. Heck there might even be time for a shot of Dany setting off to the actual Dragonstone. Before she leaves Mereen, Selmy will give some info dump on RR and Rhaegar.



Bran: already taken care of in S4.



KL: HS and the militant faith will play out... foreshadowed by Margaery warning Loras about being discreet and Cersei's meeting with Lancel. Walk of shame, and probably the death of at least one of her children.



Sansa Stark: no Eyrie plot, trailer shows her to be in WF crypts... so she probably gets betrothed or wed to Ramsay (without any actual harm coming to her), and the crypts suggest more hints on Lyanna and RR... giving enough clues for the viewers to piece R+L=J together. Add Brienne and Pod there to take the role of Abel and we're right on schedule, except that Sansa will rescue herself and gets helped before Ramsay can do to her what he did to fArya in the books.



Which brings us to Jon: Stannis is planning to fight the Boltons at WF, dangling Jon's home in front of his nose. Jon refuses several times, but with Sansa at WF and Stannis going there, it's more logic for Jon to decide to battle the Boltons at the end of this season than S6. Ollie's been featured heavily too in e1, so I agree he'll be Brutus. Sure HH rescue may happen late in the season, but with ships they'll return soon enough. Remember how fast Stannis appeared all of a sudden at the Wall while we still assumed he must have been returning from Braavos. So, I see them doing something similar in e10 with Jon. And I wouldn't fear necessarily they cut Jon warging into Ghost. I noted how they featured Ghost twice in a row in the training shot. It was an odd angle. Actually my eyes were more attracted to Ghost gnawing bones than Jon parring with Ollie. They've rarely featured one of the direwolves in a scene so much where they could have not shown him just as well (except with Bran). IMO they wouldn't be featuring Ghost like that if they aren't letting Jon warg into him.



If we're gonna see several references dropped towards R+L=J this season then the Ides of March is in... it makes for the exact amount of drama for the Unsullied to just have figured out that Jon is Rhaegar's and Lyanna's love child and possible heir to the IT to then have him assassinated and warg into Ghost, just as Dany is finally setting sail for Westeros with an army.


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Personally, I think the Ides of Marsh almost has to occur at the end of this season for them to keep their same basic structure. What I mean is, typically the end of the season is where a big plot twist of revelation occurs. They then spend the first ep or 2 of the next season reestablishing where each of their characters are. Given that, it doesn't make sense for the Ides to occur in the first couple eps of next season. Why introduce a huge plot point in the episodes where you are supposed to be catching your viewers up on what's going on in the world? I am almost certain this scene will occur in episode 9 or 10. I could see 9 being the battle at winter fell so perhaps it'll more likely be ep 10 but we shall see.

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Personally, I think the Ides of Marsh almost has to occur at the end of this season for them to keep their same basic structure. What I mean is, typically the end of the season is where a big plot twist of revelation occurs. They then spend the first ep or 2 of the next season reestablishing where each of their characters are. Given that, it doesn't make sense for the Ides to occur in the first couple eps of next season. Why introduce a huge plot point in the episodes where you are supposed to be catching your viewers up on what's going on in the world? I am almost certain this scene will occur in episode 9 or 10. I could see 9 being the battle at winter fell so perhaps it'll more likely be ep 10 but we shall see.

Dont think we will see a battle at winterfell (this season), the main action sequence appears to be north of the wall at Hardhome, which will most likely be epsiode 9, Id bet on the Ides cliffhanger to follow in episode 10.

The whole Jons parentage angle will make for a more devastating effect if placed at the right time during the final episodes of the season before the disaster, if popular theory turns out to be true.

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Dont think we will see a battle at winterfell (this season), the main action sequence appears to be north of the wall at Hardhome, which will most likely be epsiode 9, Id bet on the Ides cliffhanger to follow in episode 10.

The trailers show Mel and Stannis at a camp and a map with battle pawns representing the flayed sigil of the Boltons + Roose Bolton's voiceover telling how Stannis is moving to attack WF.

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Olli would make no sense - he is not invested in the rules and traditions of the Nights Watch whatsoever.



Bowen Marsh has been cast for this season, so if Jons dies by the hands of a NW man this season, I think it will be Bowen Marsh in episode 10. The alternative would be some incident during or after the Hardhome showdown, which would be reasonable as well I guess.


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Ok so now I am partly convinced it will be Ollie. However this would massively disappoint me and would hope it's a more senior and established member. Also think whatever episode it falls in will be titled "For the Watch," unfortunately this is one of the only moments I'm excited for so do hope they get round to it this season

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What better way to show the NW has truly fallen than to have members of both generations take part in the Ides?

Potentially, I think it depends on Ollies development throughout the season. If they have had it planned to do it in season 5 I personally would have kept Grenn the giant slayer or Pyp alive and have them carry it out, betrayal right there
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Ollie will absolutely stab or betray Jon for growing close to the widlings. I think whoever leads the conspiracy will convince Ollie to betray Jon. I too hope that Alliser Thorne isn't portrayed as the 1 dimensional "bad guy" . The scene will carry a lot more weight if it is someone close to Jon and also someone FORMIDABLE. Like when Roose betrayed Robb, it had a big impact because Robb trusted him and we knew he Roose was a badd@@@. Maybe Tormund?? Tormund could tell Ollie that the Wildlings will leave Westeros and return north if Ollie helps Tormund get vengeance on the turncloak Jon Snow?. Doubt it, but I have feeling there will be a twist to the Ides of ..... scene. I also like the idea of the viewers finding out about Jon's parentage and getting really excited and then, out of no where, Jon is killed.


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