The loyalties of the Vale

[Garbad]

Note: I haven't watched any of season 5, I am trying to avoid spoilers. But all books/released chapters are go.

So about the Vale...so far, its stayed out of the war. We know it has among the richest farmlands in westeros. It may well be the largest uncommitted force left.

Petyr plans to marry harry the heir to sansa to rule the vale by proxy, and then perhaps reclaim the north. Sansa may or may not be a pawn in that scheme, after all. Even if she is, I imagine the knights declarant (and others) have pretty sketchy loyalty to petyr, or to sweetrobin (given what he is). Finally, even if all that falls into place, I'm not aware of any proven, notable war leaders that can be relied on.

Except one -- the Blackfish.

Yes, he's a tully. But he served as knight of the gate for the last 17 years. The lords of the value know him and respect him. He was a skilled fighter during the ninepenny war, plus was a primary advisor to the young wolf (perhaps even the brains behind the throne -- keep in mind it was he who made the decisive move in each battle). He resigned as knight of the gate because Lysa refused to aid riverrun. He was born in the riverlands, all men know him. He fought for the north, and has blood ties to them. He fought for the vale, and has blood ties and connections there. He knows how to fight, how to lead, and can rally loyalty from large and disseperate groups. And we know he is alive and on the run, as of FEAST.

As far as I know, no one has considered the impact he could have. I doubt he has ambitions for a throne. He loves war -- and duty, family, honor. But as far as I know he has no history with stannis, mild dislike of john snow (perhaps a misunderstanding), and likely wants hot red vengeance against both the lannisters and the freys.

That seems a singularly potent combination.

Its my belief that he will flee down the red fork, then head north to seagard, seat of the mallisters. They recently surrendered, but would likely hide him and in any event there aren't a lot of other places he could go. From there, I'm a lot less certain. But its easy to see how Stannis would treasure a man like him falling into his lap, with the loyalties he could command. And since the mannis is the one true king, the chosen of god, and the only just man in westros I have faith in my heart that he will triumph.

What do you think? What role does the blackfish have to play?

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

I think the Blackfish was deeply loyal to King... and Queen.

He is going to part of the Jeyne Westerling story

[Good Guy Garlan]

I wonder if he'll show up as a mystery knight at the

tourney at the Gates of the Moon

He wouldn't even have to go through the High Road. He could disguise himself, go to Maidenpool, take a ship to Gulltown, easy peasy.

[aryagonnakill#2]

As you said, Seaguard surrendered and there are Frey troops there, it is also on the wrong side of the continent to sail to the Vale, he would have to sail past the Iron Isles, Lannisters, and Reach, where the Ironborn are raiding, then around Dorne, threw the Stepstones where pirates are everywhere, and then finally up the narrow sea to the Vale.

While it is theoretically possible for the BF to make it to the Vale, I would simply ask that you consider the logistics. There are roving parties of warriors all over the Riverlands, and only 2 of them would be friendly to the BF, the 2 factions of the BWB. The bloody mummers, Gregors men, Lannister men, and Randyl Tarly at Maidenpool would all take his head. There is also the sheer distance to consider, were talking like a thousand miles for a guy without a horse. Moving backwards in time we come to the original obstacle, the Trident itself. It is snowing and yet supposedly the BF swam underwater and presumably stayed in the river at least a few miles until he was past the Lannister camps, and lighting a fire when men are searching for you is a dead giveaway, so how did he even survive that trip considering how quickly hypothermia would set in?

It is my opinion that the BF never left Riverun. In the Griffen Reborn chapter we see Jon Connington knows of a secret hidey hole within Griffens Roost where the nobles were found, but they were only found because Jon Connington grew up there. Why was this scene included in the books at all? Perhaps it was foreshadowing, or at least laying the ground work so it is not baseless when the BF pops out in Riverrun?

Also, Bronze Yhon Royce is an excellent fighter and is very qualified to lead the Vales Forces, there is no need for the BF to lead them.

[Garbad]

Another thought -- he will have known Petyr since boyhood. And he knew cat (obviously). Sansa is described as looking like Cat, but more beautiful, with distinctly tully features. I think he could easily spoil petyr's plans with a single swing of his sword, and the knights of the vale would cheer him on. And he knows that robb named jon snow his heir, which throws off petyr's plans for sansa.

He could be the bridge between the vale and the north/riverlands. And also -- he fought besdie ser barristan in 9k. He could also be a bridge to dany.

Or for that matter instead of the vale, he could attempt to hide with the BWB or even howland reed. Or rescue edmure and jeyne

BRLLLARG. but I know he is important and a badass, either way.

[The Witch King of Asshai]

In regard to the Lords Declarant, if Bronze Yohn is convinced by Sansa then his loyalty is assured (to her), he appears to be an ally of the Starks. And if he is half the man he sounds like, then he is a formidable commander and leader. The remaining LD's will follow his lead. But that won't make him like Littlefinger.

Personally, I think the Blackfish is either with the BwB (hiding in Riverun perhaps for RW 2.0) or following Queen Jeyne. That said, would love it if he teamed up with the Mannis, implausible as it may be.

[James Arryn]

I would say that for many commanders in the series, we don't hear much about their command skill until it's specifically brought up because they are in potential command situations. Some aren't even mentioned at all until they are mentioned as able commanders. The BF is among these, I think. So one sentence could turn Bronze Yohn or Lyn Corbray or X into an excellent commander, and the lack of warfare in the Vale best explains the lack of mention.