Robb's Plan?

[Raving Stark the Mad]

Where is the 80k coming from? Source?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Nyrex, I don't think your really being fair about how things would have played out, because everything bad that happened to the Lannisters and Tyrells would still have happened.

 

Lets presume Duskendale still happens, Robb retreats north and leaves strong garrisons at Riverrun and the Twins, and has Bracken and Blackwood leading cavalry forces around to harass the enemy.  Tarly would probably have moved north from Maidenpool and it would have been him besieging Riverrun instead of the Freys, but under these different circumstances, I think the Blackfish would make them storm the castle, costing them thousands of men.  Assuming they take it, by the time Tarly got to the Twins, the snow would be falling, madness I Kings Landing would have started and he would have to return to save Margery, and Walder would still hold the twins with 4k men.  While a good chunk of the Riverlands would fall, I don't think they would ever have been able to obtain full control before things spiraled out of control for them, and then Robb can come back south and retake everything.

[Bobby b's bobby]

If the Reach can ship enough food to feed 500,000 Kingslanders, why not 80,000 troops? What else are the soldiers going to do? Invest Storm's End?

Jaime had trouble feeding his men because they hadn't planned on a long siege. And again, they could have brought in food. The topic was being discussed.

Army isn't the same as city

[Blackfish Tully]

If the Reach can ship enough food to feed 500,000 Kingslanders, why not 80,000 troops? What else are the soldiers going to do? Invest Storm's End?

Jaime had trouble feeding his men because they hadn't planned on a long siege. And again, they could have brought in food. The topic was being discussed.

They would have a hard time feeding 80,000 because they were feeding the 500,000 Kingslanders plus they would have to have supply lines going to Kings landing and then going all thru the Riverlands . Logistically it would be a nightmare especially considering the Riverlands were destroyed by the Lannisters , there is almost nothing to eat there 

 

As for what the soldiers are going to do , they would just go home , there are no standing armies in Westeroes . Those men are farmers , craftsmen, workers etc.. . The Reach cannot afford to have 80,000 men in their prime just sitting in front of Riverland Castles for months on end. 

 

 

Jaime had trouble feeding his men because they hadn't planned on a long siege. And again, they could have brought in food. The topic was being discussed.

 

The topic was being discussed and Jaimie was worried that they would not be able to get enough food before they all starved . That's to feed 2000 not 80,000.

[Blackfish Tully]

Also you have to remember that the whole time that the Tyrells and Lannisters are in the Riverlands they have to worry about Robb returning with a Northern army . They have no idea how long he will be in the North . It could be weeks or months but he could hit return at any time. How comfortable would you be in a army laying siege to Riverrun when you know that Robb has already destroyed one army that was laying siege to the castle? It's not as simple as just sending 80,000 men to the Riverlands and guaranteeing  a victory . The Riverlords are battle hardened and they would be ready and they know that Robb will be returning soon. 

[Bobby b's bobby]

Where is the 80k coming from? Source?

Renly says 100k but is likely inflating a bit so 80k I guess

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Please quote where it suggests Harrenhal is losing its wealth.

That's the point, her egress was a plot weakness.

 

Not necessarily. Edmure called his banners, there was a Riverland army that went to the Golden Tooth and another army that fought at Riverrun.

 

It is possible that Lady Whent sent many of her men to help her relatives the Tullys leaving herself vulnerable to attack.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Nyrex, I don't think your really being fair about how things would have played out, because everything bad that happened to the Lannisters and Tyrells would still have happened.

 

Why would they?

 

Tywin stays put at Kings Landing because he knows Robbs own bannermen are preparing to deal with him. If that plan is not in place it is likely that he returns to the field to deal with Robb and the Riverlords.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^It seems to me that they would have stayed in the city for the wedding, and Joffrey would still have been killed.  Once that happens Tywin still gets killed by Tyrion and from there everything else happens the same anyway.

[Bobby b's bobby]

Agree with above the marriage was needed from a lannister pov and from a tyrell pov joffrey had to go then with joffrey dead tywin needs to stay and deal with that then dies to tyrion.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

^It seems to me that they would have stayed in the city for the wedding, and Joffrey would still have been killed.  Once that happens Tywin still gets killed by Tyrion and from there everything else happens the same anyway.

 

There is almost three months between the Battle of Blackwater and Jofffeys wedding. It would be pointless allowing this huge Tyrell-Lannister army to sit around and do nothing as the Crown was desperate for the war to end as quickly as possible.

 

That is enough time for Tywin to go and pacify the Riverlands.

[Blackfish Tully]

 

Why would they?

 

Tywin stays put at Kings Landing because he knows Robbs own bannermen are preparing to deal with him. If that plan is not in place it is likely that he returns to the field to deal with Robb and the Riverlords.

 

I have a feeling that Tywin stays in Kings Landing regardless of what happens . Seeing how screwed up  Joffrey and not really trusting the Tyrells that much I just can't see Tywin being comfortable leaving Kings Landing under somebodies else's control. He would trust that Lord Tarly and/or his brother would be able to handle the Riverlands. With the King being a minor the King's Hand should be in Kings Landing ruling the Iron Throne. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

If he didn't do that when they were more of a threat because Robb was still south, why would he do it when they are less of a threat.  Also, that's not nearly enough time for him to do anything.  A single siege will take longer than that and just marching places takes weeks.

[Eli Stark]

 

Plan? What plan?

 

For all intent and purpose, Robb's plan was to basically abandon the Riverlands. An army ~70,000 strong was a couple weeks away, and Robb decides that this is the best time to take away half his forces, while the Ironborn are away and the troops already in the North could take care of the remaining garrisons of Moat Cailin, Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte. 

 

As KITN Robb would have a small fleet to defend his eastern shore, but it is no match for the Redwyne Fleet, let alone if the throne had added new war galleys during winter. Had the Others not showed up during the winter for some reason, come summer the Iron Throne would have sent a massive army and a massive fleet to bring the North to bend the knee again. After the losses of the war and the harsh winter, 50 war galleys are no match for 200 with experianced crews, and the ~9,000 veterans of the war plus whatever scraps remain are no match for an army 50-70,000 strong landing in White Harbor. The North would have lost, Robb was just running after easy victories without a coherent plan for how to bring about a victory. He hoped that Stannis would win on the Blackwater so that he could deal with him or likely just bend the knee. Against the Lannister-Tyrell alliance Robb had no plan. Nothing that we see points to anything more than simply running back home because he had no idea what to do down south.

 

Does anyone honestly doubt that the Riverlands would have fallen by the time Robb had sorted out the North? Even assuming that he does not have to deal with the Wildlings and the Others? Does anyone doubt that the North lacked the resources to retake the Riverlands after they had fallen from the Lannisters and the Tyrells? Does anyone doubt that the Redwyne Fleet would make short work of Manderly's 50 galleys full of new and in-experianced crews? Does anyone doubt that the 50-70,000 men would have faced far fewer numbers on the North, and in summer conditions would have little problem to take over the North?

 

Calling Robb's movement a part of a "plan" is laughable. He had no idea what to do. In the Riverlands he had a host, he had strongholds, he had access to the enemy's lands. In the North he would be stuck, the Riverlords too few and only able to play defence until they are sieged and taken. The North takes the greatest hit during winter, and the Lannisters and the Tyrells can outspend him anything he may want to hire from across the sea. The only chance to get ahead of the enemy on that front is to bend the knee to Stannis if he gets to the Wall (considering that Robb still lives, etc. etc...) and gets the loan from the Iron Bank.

If sailing a navy up to invade the North is that easy, why hasn't anyone done it in 8,000 or so years?  May be a plot hole if you ask me, but in the world GRRM created, it is obviously not that easy to do.  You would have to sail up a huge army and a constant stream of supplies from the south, especially if the North implements any scorched earth policies.  Not to mention, the North is simply huge and the capital is very far inland.  You can't check mate it by taking a city close to water like you could King's Landing.  Whether the North is invadeable with a navy is probably a discussion that could take up a whole thread though, so not going to argue much here other than to point out that it is not likely as simple as you are seeming to indicate here.

[KimberBenton]

Did Robb ever had a plan? Something happens, Robb reacts.Most things he does are not thought through to the end. He is 15 years old, and he behaves like it. His only good plans are how to get past the Twins (Cats plan), how to take back Riverrun (Blackfishs plan). I'm not sure who had the idea to send part of his army against Tywin and go to Riverrun with the rest, but even there he wanted to send the Greatjon, which was a terrible idea.

 

He wanted to go back north to take revenge on Theon and free Winterfell (and that situation was his fault to start with). He would have left the riverlands open for attack. You can't hold the riverlands from Winterfell. And it seems they aren't able to help themselves. I doubt he had any further plan after that. He is a lot like his father :)

[Seaworth'sShipmate]

Did Robb ever had a plan? Something happens, Robb reacts.Most things he does are not thought through to the end. He is 15 years old, and he behaves like it. His only good plans are how to get past the Twins (Cats plan), how to take back Riverrun (Blackfishs plan). I'm not sure who had the idea to send part of his army against Tywin and go to Riverrun with the rest, but even there he wanted to send the Greatjon, which was a terrible idea.

 

He wanted to go back north to take revenge on Theon and free Winterfell (and that situation was his fault to start with). He would have left the riverlands open for attack. You can't hold the riverlands from Winterfell. And it seems they aren't able to help themselves. I doubt he had any further plan after that. He is a lot like his father :)

 

 

 

Hmm. Your right. It sounds like he never had much of a plan, and it almost is making Roose Bolton look good.

 

Roose Bolton, by acting as he did made peace between the Iron Throne and the North, and stopped having northern lives and resources wasted on an unwindable war. He also went North and saved the northerners from the IB. Roose FTW?

[Blackfish Tully]

Did Robb ever had a plan? Something happens, Robb reacts.Most things he does are not thought through to the end. He is 15 years old, and he behaves like it. His only good plans are how to get past the Twins (Cats plan), how to take back Riverrun (Blackfishs plan). I'm not sure who had the idea to send part of his army against Tywin and go to Riverrun with the rest, but even there he wanted to send the Greatjon, which was a terrible idea.

 

He wanted to go back north to take revenge on Theon and free Winterfell (and that situation was his fault to start with). He would have left the riverlands open for attack. You can't hold the riverlands from Winterfell. And it seems they aren't able to help themselves. I doubt he had any further plan after that. He is a lot like his father :)

 

That's how warfare works . You have no idea what the other side is going to do so you try your best to make educated guesses and plans based on those guesses but mostly you are just reacting to the changing situations. How is Tywin's plans any different then Robb's ? He attacks the Riverlands with a plan but then everything after that is reacting to what Robb does and what Renly and Stannis are doing . If there wasn't a miracle shadowbaby incident with Renly then Tywin would have lost the war badly. 

[KimberBenton]

Hmm. Your right. It sounds like he never had much of a plan, and it almost is making Roose Bolton look good.

 

Roose Bolton, by acting as he did made peace between the Iron Throne and the North, and stopped having northern lives and resources wasted on an unwindable war. He also went North and saved the northerners from the IB. Roose FTW?

 

I don't think I'm Team Bolton, but Roose Boltons plans are much better. And they work quite well. :)

[KimberBenton]

That's how warfare works . You have no idea what the other side is going to do so you try your best to make educated guesses and plans based on those guesses but mostly you are just reacting to the changing situations. How is Tywin's plans any different then Robb's ? He attacks the Riverlands with a plan but then everything after that is reacting to what Robb does and what Renly and Stannis are doing . If there wasn't a miracle shadowbaby incident with Renly then Tywin would have lost the war badly. 

 

Do you play chess? Because war is like chess. You plan your moves ahead, and you have a plan B and a plan C and so on. You might all of a sudden have to play someone you don't know, so your change your plans. Tywin starts out rather good. He starts mayhem in the Riverlands, because Tyrion got kidnapped. He doesn't get involved himself, good move. Then his daughter kills her husband and Robb marches. At that point he doesn't know about Stannis and Renly. He seeks to make the Riverlands unable to take sides. He makes the mistake of underestimating Robb, so he marches against Robb, wants to cut him off. He sucseeds. He decides to take Harrenhal as a good position to regroup. Then he has a lot of luck and the war is his.

 

Robb learns his father is taken prisoner, he calls the banners. His men get restless, so he decides to free Riverrun, he marches without the slightest clue how to do that. His father is killed, he is named King in the North... with Riverlanders thinking, they are of the north now too. Robb gets himself a crown. He marches west with the hope Tywin will follow, but forgets to tell his bannermen, who hinder Tywin to follow him. He breaks his pact with the Freys in marrying some chick he had... unflowered :) Oh, yes, and while all that is going on, he sends his very arrogant hostage back to his father, so that the ironborn have no more reason to stay put.

 

I don't blame him, he is completely overwhelmed, and he listens to all the wrong people. I blame the people surrounding him for not giving better council. Watching Robb pains me, because you just know that will end badly.

[Nyrhex]

Where is the 80k coming from? Source?

 

Renly has 80k men at Bittebridge, and 10k coming from Highgarden. After Renly dies, some go home, some die on the Blackwater on both sides. There are 50-70k Tyrell troops in the city by the time of Joffrey's wedding, and another ~15,000 Lannister troops at least. Even if we don't count the fact that the Stormlands have suffered very few casualties and are now part of Joffreys forces, with thousands of men at Tarly's command at the Battle of Dukendale, that is still a massive host. After the Red Wedding, the Riverlands are quickly sorted out, and both the Lannister and the Tyrell hosts can afford to send men home. Tarly has thousands, perhaps as many as 10-15k. Mace has ~30,000 men, and the rest went with Garlan back home. And that is not the full potentail of the Reach yet.

 

Nyrex, I don't think your really being fair about how things would have played out, because everything bad that happened to the Lannisters and Tyrells would still have happened.

 

Lets presume Duskendale still happens, Robb retreats north and leaves strong garrisons at Riverrun and the Twins, and has Bracken and Blackwood leading cavalry forces around to harass the enemy.  Tarly would probably have moved north from Maidenpool and it would have been him besieging Riverrun instead of the Freys, but under these different circumstances, I think the Blackfish would make them storm the castle, costing them thousands of men.  Assuming they take it, by the time Tarly got to the Twins, the snow would be falling, madness I Kings Landing would have started and he would have to return to save Margery, and Walder would still hold the twins with 4k men.  While a good chunk of the Riverlands would fall, I don't think they would ever have been able to obtain full control before things spiraled out of control for them, and then Robb can come back south and retake everything.

 

I also don't think it's fair to count on everything bad that happened to the Lannisters in one timeline, but giving Robb a bone. Especially not when we are talking about what Robb knew at the time, and what he should have planned for.

 

The events in AFFC and ADWD have plenty to do with Robb's death. Does Varys dare launch Aegon's invasion while the Lannisters and the Tyrells are still in full war gear? Do events still go as planned if Littlefinger had wanted a few years of quite and Cersei acts slower in destroying the alliance since the war still rages? The assumption that Robb can avoid death in the Red Wedding and everything bad that happens to the Lannisters after remains the same is false.

 

Worse off, Robb had no idea what would happen in the next books, because he does not read them. We are talking about what he planned for.

 

They would have a hard time feeding 80,000 because they were feeding the 500,000 Kingslanders plus they would have to have supply lines going to Kings landing and then going all thru the Riverlands . Logistically it would be a nightmare especially considering the Riverlands were destroyed by the Lannisters , there is almost nothing to eat there 

 

As for what the soldiers are going to do , they would just go home , there are no standing armies in Westeroes . Those men are farmers , craftsmen, workers etc.. . The Reach cannot afford to have 80,000 men in their prime just sitting in front of Riverland Castles for months on end. 

 

 

 

The topic was being discussed and Jaimie was worried that they would not be able to get enough food before they all starved . That's to feed 2000 not 80,000.

 

They don't have that hard a time feeding 80,000 men, they might have a problem feeding them in one place. Split into a few hosts and it gets much easier. Attacking the North and using 1,200+ ships to transpot supplies is also not that hard if they do it in spring when the seas are clam. After a few months to sort out the Riverlands, most of the soldiers would indeed go back home. So what? What do you expect the bulk of Robb's men to do? What do you expect the few Karstarks, the Boltons, the Umbers, to do now that tens of thousands of Wildlings are raiding thier lands? The bulk of the Lannister and Reach troops are said to be paid soldiers. Even if we assume a large percentage is a levy, even if we take the it's cheaper to have paid soldiers have regular pay rather than increased war time pay, it's still not something that hinders the Lannisters and the Tyrells nearly as much as it does Robb's men.

 

Also you have to remember that the whole time that the Tyrells and Lannisters are in the Riverlands they have to worry about Robb returning with a Northern army . They have no idea how long he will be in the North . It could be weeks or months but he could hit return at any time. How comfortable would you be in a army laying siege to Riverrun when you know that Robb has already destroyed one army that was laying siege to the castle? It's not as simple as just sending 80,000 men to the Riverlands and guaranteeing  a victory . The Riverlords are battle hardened and they would be ready and they know that Robb will be returning soon. 

 

That's not how it works. Robb can't be halfway across the continent and still pose a threat to the south. If he comes south he needs to pass near the Twins. If the Twins are sieged or have already switched sides, that closes whatever threat Robb may pose fast. Robb can't return in weeks, it takes months just to travel one way. He would need time to gather men and supplies to march south again, and by that time it's a blizzard with snow blocking his way. This is ADWD timeframe already. He has no other chance to return south before winter. How comfortable would Robb be with trying the same schtick a third time? Even assuming that Robb changes his mind and rides back from Moat Cailin, do you forget that Jaime makes extra sure that his outriders are enough and that his camp is well defended? A third time using the same trick can only end with far worse results, and Robb is cut off from reinforcements. He can't play what-a-mole forever, and he can't live off the land if everyone had already burned out everything they could not carry into thier castles. His logistics would be non-existant even if he pulls off another raid.

 

^It seems to me that they would have stayed in the city for the wedding, and Joffrey would still have been killed.  Once that happens Tywin still gets killed by Tyrion and from there everything else happens the same anyway.

 

The different interests change. Joffrey may die, but will Varys chose to help Tyrion out when most of the armies are still there? It's one thing to launch Aegon when the war is over and most return home, it's quite another when any landing would face at least 50,000 men a couple of weeks to a month away. Your base assumption that everything bad would happen to the Lannisters but not to Robb is false.

 

If sailing a navy up to invade the North is that easy, why hasn't anyone done it in 8,000 or so years?  May be a plot hole if you ask me, but in the world GRRM created, it is obviously not that easy to do.  You would have to sail up a huge army and a constant stream of supplies from the south, especially if the North implements any scorched earth policies.  Not to mention, the North is simply huge and the capital is very far inland.  You can't check mate it by taking a city close to water like you could King's Landing.  Whether the North is invadeable with a navy is probably a discussion that could take up a whole thread though, so not going to argue much here other than to point out that it is not likely as simple as you are seeming to indicate here.

 

Over the past ~8,000 years there were the Ironborn, who at some points had control over the western shore of Westeros, the North included, but due to the lack of manpower had never been able to take over the North. The Lannisters and the Tyrells have no such shortage. The western shore is void of any meaningfull defences, it's fleet is made up of a handfull of fishing sloops based at Bear Island. The eastern shore has White Harbor and it's ~50 war galleys. It's clear that control of the seas, if either a western or eastern invasion is launched, would be at the hands of the Redwyne fleet. The North has barely enough men for one host, or it can place garrisons in all of it's castles. Since the bulk of the remaining troops were the garrisons, it's either or. Either that or Robb would again take only his cavalry. More likely, since he has very little idea of just how to use his infantry. At best he could hope to attack any invading army's supply lines, but it is safe to say that an invasion would take place at White Harbor, would easily take it, and would place so much defenses there for a logistics base that the North would not be able to re-take it. 

 

At best, Robb's strategy would be to keep hald-two thirds of the North, while the south-east would be in enemy control. He simply won't have the men to do anything else. The North being huge is the only thing he can paly with, but his logistics are not that much better. His host would also need supplies, and if he can't retake enemy possesions, there is only so much he could do against a slow, but steady enemy advance.

 

 

That's how warfare works . You have no idea what the other side is going to do so you try your best to make educated guesses and plans based on those guesses but mostly you are just reacting to the changing situations. How is Tywin's plans any different then Robb's ? He attacks the Riverlands with a plan but then everything after that is reacting to what Robb does and what Renly and Stannis are doing . If there wasn't a miracle shadowbaby incident with Renly then Tywin would have lost the war badly. 

 

No, that is how a kid plays in war. War should have a goal, a goal should have a target to get to said goal, a target needs a plan to shape the reality to meet said target. If Robb's plan was to run home, deal with three miseralbe garrisons, easily dealt with by Ramsay's men, and going "meh, I'll see what I can do next summer", then no that is not a plan. That is the opposite of a plan. Tywin is not much better than Robb. He too launched a poorly thought out war. Wow, it's almost as if the writer has no military experiance and was more interested in telling a story, one that has "young hero dies tragically" as a plot-point since before he started writing...

 

Tywin's plans were bad. That does not make Robb's plan any good because it was just as poorly thought out.