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Did Rugen (Varys) really plant the highgarden coin?


Young Nan

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some Dornish master plan is about as likely as the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory. Not very likely, basically.

Have to disagree with you there. Pretty much everything about the Tyrells has been fairly transparent, as even their back room scheming (Olenna taking out Joffrey) is directly verified to a POV character.

The Martells, Doran specifically, have been mired in contradictions on the other hand. Multiple characters, chief among them Tywin Lannisters, express trepidation when dealing with Doran's planning and intellect. But everything we've seen this far from the gout-stricken Prince goes against that. He only seems to have had one plan (Quentyn), which was bafflingly stupid, and otherwise appears content to have sat on his ass while just talking a big game.

Now, it's possible GRRM messed up with Doran and really did waste our time with him. I find that unlikely given how much effort the author put into AFFC and ADWD. Furthermore, most of Qyburn's action, while seemingly helping Cersei, can very easily blow up in her face.

Consider Ser Robert Strong. Yes he seems invincible, but remember that Cersei's trial is being administered by the Faith. If they find out her champion is a black magic zombie it will probably cause an automatic conviction, and even a giant can be taken down by a ton of men swarming him. You could say the smarter course would just to have been to not help her at all, but why not ensure her demise and get a chance to put your (Qyburn's) long-held necromancy dreams to the test?

Take a look back through all of the things Qyburn does and advises Cersei on and ask yourself if, in the long run, they're actually helpful or just seem that way short-term. Yes, this theory I'm advocating is a bit of a stretch, but it's not as absurd as you claim.

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12 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

I generally do not subscribe to the preston jacobs theories but that one would be very entertaining. The issue is that as of the mercy chapter, Cersei seems to have won her trial and could be back in power, so I guess that means Bob Strong has not been sent to run amok

I've actually never looked into any of Preston Jacobs theories, I think the general opinion around here has made me uninterested in what he has to say. I don't really think it likely Doran is behind Robert strong. It would not make sense for Doran to want to use Gregor for any reason. I really do believe Qyburn is acting in as honest a position someone like him could be. His sinister nature matches Cersei's so it seems he found the best place for himself. If you're right that Cersei is back in power during the Mercy chapter that means that Qyburn would be set by this point as Cersei would no doubt lay some honors on him. It would also mean that the highly anticipated "Clegane Bowl" hasn't happened(Sandor would win) and either won't happen or is happening later for another trial, perhaps Sansa's. How do you think the Tyrells will react to Margaery being the victim of the trial. I feel like sharing a grievance against the Lannisters and the mountain might be able to lead towards the Tyrells and Martells towards burying their differences. Their feud doesn't seem to run to deep, just since the Viper crippled the tyrell heir (Willas?*) in a tourney, and according to Oberyn, it was the family holding the grudge whereas Willas forgave him. It seems unthinkable which makes me think it harder.

Sorry for getting off topic.

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We really don't know when the Mercy chapter is in the book. With Kevan dead, Cersei will probably regain power for a bit, but that doesn't mean that much about her future - it takes a while for ships to travel to/from Westeros (we have no evidence that the Free Cities use ravens) and so there is considerable delay between Braavosi understanding of Westerosi politics and the actual changes in the continent.

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Just a couple of random thoughts... 

The Martells are in a better position to make long-term plots and plans for a number of reasons. Doran has played the role of weak broken man very well (especially when his brother was around to be his foil) ever since Jon Arryn was thought to have so easily calmed a Dornish rebellion after Robert was crowned.

They're kind of easy to forget about, down there in their bizarrely different region. Also, they already appear to more or less rule themselves with their rulers retaining semi-royal titles and their own laws. I don't think most people (except Tywin who is no longer around) believe the Martells have that much to complain about.

Alternatively, the Tyrells were already sitting in a somewhat usurped seat of power at Highgarden, and none of them are subtle in their efforts to advance themselves and their family. They've been sticking themselves in the Lannister's faces for quite some time and show no sign of reaching a point of satisfaction with their position. 

Lastly, is there any independent confirmation that Qyburn was ever even at the Citadel or forging a maester's chain, and/or what truly happened if he was there? It's been the story he's told to gain a foothold in various places, but he had to have something besides "I cut people up alive for fun" (which, as far as we know, I think he's only shared with Cersei) to offer as bona fides. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

How about this: this coin was a obvious set up to make Cersei distrust the Tyrells, and I mean stupidly obvious. Since Qyburn's fortune is linked to Cersei's he said he found the coin to make Cersei think someone is trying to make her suspicious of the Tyrells. If she had any intelligence this would make her LESS suspicious of them,

I guess that could be what Qyburn tried to do.

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I assumed that Qyburn had produced the coin. He may have hitched his cart to Cersei for the moment but I there is more to him than Westeros' own Dr. Frankenstein. During his "they laughed at me back at the Citadel" speech he mentions Marwyn as the only archmaester he respects- the same Marwyn on his way to Dany. I think he may have as much interest in a destabilized realm as Varys and company.

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