Counterpoint: It was smart of Balon to attack Robb

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

On 26/08/2016 at 11:55 PM, Duranaparthur said:

Except the Ironborn now have three active enemies, two of whom were antagonized directly by Balon (Roose in that it's his homeland under attack, Stannis in that Balon is a traitor to the Iron Throne) and are smashing his Northern gains, and one that seems poised to defeat defeat them (the Reach, with Redwyne fleets being built and a chance for them to consolidate Westeros behind the Rose and invade the Iron Islands) in part because of the political isolation Balon achieved.

They pretty much simply abandoned the North as Euron pivoted them towards the Reach. Granted, they probably would have lost the gains anyway as Asha argued, but who knows given Stannis and Bolton are primarily concerned with fighting each other. Overall, they didn't lose all that much from attacking the North. 

I sincerely doubt the Redwynes will defeat the Ironborn, I think there's going to be a major upset, and am convinced there isn't going to be an invasion by them of the Iron Islands, they have Aegon to face, and their own problems in Kings Landing. 

Spoiler

In the Aeron chapter of Winds, it looks like Euron has a few more tricks up his sleeve and the Redwyne fleet is about to have it's arse handed to it. 

 

On 26/08/2016 at 11:55 PM, Duranaparthur said:

He wouldn't have Stannis or the Reach as immediate enemies if he didn't declare himself king

True when it comes to Stannis, but Tyrell didn't give a shit about Balon declaring himself king. He argued that the Iron Throne should accept an alliance with the Ironborn and cede them the North. 

[devilish]

It would be smart if Balon made backroom deals with the Lannisters to be allowed to keep the land he actually conquered. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

5 hours ago, devilish said:

 

It would be smart if Balon made backroom deals with the Lannisters to be allowed to keep the land he actually conquered.

 

He did try that, but was ignored. 

[Duranaparthur]

16 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

They pretty much simply abandoned the North as Euron pivoted them towards the Reach. Granted, they probably would have lost the gains anyway as Asha argued, but who knows given Stannis and Bolton are primarily concerned with fighting each other. Overall, they didn't lose all that much from attacking the North. 

I sincerely doubt the Redwynes will defeat the Ironborn, I think there's going to be a major upset, and am convinced there isn't going to be an invasion by them of the Iron Islands, they have Aegon to face, and their own problems in Kings Landing. 

  Hide contents

In the Aeron chapter of Winds, it looks like Euron has a few more tricks up his sleeve and the Redwyne fleet is about to have it's arse handed to it. 

 

True when it comes to Stannis, but Tyrell didn't give a shit about Balon declaring himself king. He argued that the Iron Throne should accept an alliance with the Ironborn and cede them the North. 

Was it anyone else besides Mace who argued they should give Balon that? I'm curious; it's been a while since I read that part of the book. Because if it was just Mace, then I'd argue the actual political will of the Reach isn't behind it; Book!Mace isn't the idiot the show makes him out to be, but that's because he's generally smart enough to listen to his smarter advisers, all of whom have an end goal of getting more power over the entirety of the Seven Kingdoms, which again leaves the Iron Born under Balon's rule facing overwhelming odds, plus at the time of his offer, a Tywin Lannister who does not suffer fools and knows the value of a common enemy from first hand experience. The best Balon can hope for is that they make him put away his crown after a few years but keep the North, making him look a fool again and giving him only nominal lordship over a violent and huge land where a Bastard Snow can gather a strong force to seize Winterfell right as winter hits, and he's done nothing to improve his relationships with anyone who actually has a bread basket.

But even then, I stand by my argument that attacking the North and declaring himself king was monumentally stupid on Balon's part. Those are two diametrically opposed objectives; as such, attacking the North only makes sense if you have no long term ambitions as an autonomous power.

And again, his attempts at making deals were ignored for good reason. He's the weakest man in the game once you get even a mile in land, because literally everyone else has more people and resources than he does, and he's not even attacking an enemy of the state to be a good bannermen of the Iron Throne; all he is now is a glorified bandit putting on airs he won't be able to keep who just happens to be robbing another belligerent. Tywin regards making a deal with two treacherous second-place houses, both of which actually are smaller than Balon's forces and require breaking a cultural taboo, as worth far more than even giving Balon's offer a discussion period. Balon could have launched his attack on the North at the exact time he did, then maybe send out Ravens giving windy words to any of the other claimants to at least test the waters, but nope! Had to go whole hog in challenging everyone's authority.

And as to the fact that Euron may be able to continue to exploit the chaos of Westeros... Most of the current anarchy is not the result of Balon's actions, since it belongs more to fAegon, Varys, Stannis's sheer tenacity and magic accomplice, and Tyrion's impulse to climb a ladder and have a heart to heart with dad. And since the anarchy is the main reason why no one is responding to the Iron Born's actions, their safety is thus dependent on luck and everyone else's distractions... All of which would have been even more amplified if Balon had either joined with the North or been patient in trying to crown himself.

 Join with the North and you have a theoretical force over 100,000 strong, with a huge stretch of coastline under control for Iron Born ships to base off of to attack others, along with two land powers and a breadbasket to maybe survive winter, as well as being still effectively behind the North and Riverlands in case of attack. Decide to attack the North, but don't crown yourself? You've proven your deadliness and make yourself a tempting offer to Stannis in the lead up to Blackwater, or to Cersei or the Tyrells when they come to cross purposes. Just sit still and do nothing while waiting for an advantage (classic game theory)? You're an even bigger late chess piece capable of merging with Dorne and Aegon as well if the mood suits you.

Euron might be capable of pulling a magic trick from beneath his eyepatch... But that only means he's deliberately counting on breaking the laws of physics and politics on a massive gamble. And that's Euron, not Balon; and even the former seems to have decided the latter's plan was screwy.

[devilish]

15 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

He did try that, but was ignored. 

Did he?

[Sullen]

7 hours ago, devilish said:

Did he?

He tries to open negotiations with Tywin in ASoS. While the Reach lords were open to the idea of bartering with Balon, Tywin already had the Red Wedding planned, and thus completely dismissed it. (Though he still does consider Balon and Theon as valid matches for Cersei should she remarry)

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

14 hours ago, Duranaparthur said:

Was it anyone else besides Mace who argued they should give Balon that? I'm curious; it's been a while since I read that part of the book. Because if it was just Mace, then I'd argue the actual political will of the Reach isn't behind it

Redwyne was in favour of it, although they were both easily convinced by Tywin's reasoning.

 

8 hours ago, devilish said:

Did he?

Well he offered an alliance with Tywin, of course on an equal basis as King of the Iron Islands and the North

[devilish]

19 minutes ago, Sullen said:

He tries to open negotiations with Tywin in ASoS. While the Reach lords were open to the idea of bartering with Balon, Tywin already had the Red Wedding planned, and thus completely dismissed it. (Though he still does consider Balon and Theon as valid matches for Cersei should she remarry)

I honestly don't remember that. My apologies. I guess Tywin was in no mood of conceding land to someone who had once burnt his entire fleet. 

I also think its a mistake from Tywin's part. Irrespective on who becomes Lord Paramount of the North he will never be a friend to the Lannisters. He simply cant afford to be like that (else he would lose respect of his people). Weakening the North by giving a chunk of it to the iron islanders would make it easier to keep them in line.

[devilish]

2 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

 

 

Well he offered an alliance with Tywin, of course on an equal basis as King of the Iron Islands and the North

Ah that's different. No wonder why Tywin refused that

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, devilish said:

Ah that's different. No wonder why Tywin refused that

He had the Red Wedding in the works. He also wanted to have Tyrion's son by Sansa in line for Winterfell.

Tywin's reasoning as stated was quite sound, they gained nothing from the alliance as Balon was already fighting the Starks anyway and he didn't think he could hold the North through winter. 

[Sullen]

50 minutes ago, devilish said:

I honestly don't remember that. My apologies. I guess Tywin was in no mood of conceding land to someone who had once burnt his entire fleet. 

I also think its a mistake from Tywin's part. Irrespective on who becomes Lord Paramount of the North he will never be a friend to the Lannisters. He simply cant afford to be like that (else he would lose respect of his people). Weakening the North by giving a chunk of it to the iron islanders would make it easier to keep them in line.

The Iron Islands are rowdy to be honest, them getting more powerful, even when vassals of the Iron Throne, could spell trouble for realm stability.

48 minutes ago, devilish said:

Ah that's different. No wonder why Tywin refused that

To be honest, nothing says the offer was final, and Asha's reminiscence of Balon in ADwD implies that he planned to fold eventually. (He reminds her of the importance of bending the knee when faced with a foe that is undeniably too powerful, which the Lannister-Baratheon-Tyrell power bloc was)

[devilish]

16 hours ago, Sullen said:

The Iron Islands are rowdy to be honest, them getting more powerful, even when vassals of the Iron Throne, could spell trouble for realm stability.

To be honest, nothing says the offer was final, and Asha's reminiscence of Balon in ADwD implies that he planned to fold eventually. (He reminds her of the importance of bending the knee when faced with a foe that is undeniably too powerful, which the Lannister-Baratheon-Tyrell power bloc was)

 Well it depends. Sometimes one strengthens the enemy to actually weaken him. King Edward I gave the Scottish Lords more lands in England to keep them in line. He brought them into a situation when they knew that rebelling against him would mean ending worse off because they would lose the lands they were given. However for that to happen, the lands in question must be easily conquered. If I was Tywin I would negotiate a deal were the Greyjoys would get a big chunk of the Riverlands (- the Freylands and small pieces of lands which will be added to the Westerlands and the crownlands domain) in exchange for their support. The Freylands and the neck will be incorporated into one region with Walder becoming Lord Paramount of the Neck and the Crossing (assuming he appoint Emmon as his successor)

In that way, the North would lose Moat Cailin which is strategically important for them, The Greyjoys on mainland Westeros will be surrounded by royalists and everyone will benefit for aiding the crown without being in a position to really rebel. 

 

[Sullen]

5 hours ago, devilish said:

 Well it depends. Sometimes one strengthens the enemy to actually weaken him. King Edward I gave the Scottish Lords more lands in England to keep them in line. He brought them into a situation when they knew that rebelling against him would mean ending worse off because they would lose the lands they were given. However for that to happen, the lands in question must be easily conquered. If I was Tywin I would negotiate a deal were the Greyjoys would get a big chunk of the Riverlands (- the Freylands and small pieces of lands which will be added to the Westerlands and the crownlands domain) in exchange for their support. The Freylands and the neck will be incorporated into one region with Walder becoming Lord Paramount of the Neck and the Crossing (assuming he appoint Emmon as his successor)

In that way, the North would lose Moat Cailin which is strategically important for them, The Greyjoys on mainland Westeros will be surrounded by royalists and everyone will benefit for aiding the crown without being in a position to really rebel. 

So you'd give Balon some lands in the Riverlands as well as the North? That's unorthodox, but I see the sense in it.

Balon can hardly rebel if he's left in a situation that vulnerable. The main advantage of holding the Iron Isles only is that it becomes difficult to counterattack you, but with most of his territory on the mainland now, he stands more to lose should he ever get uppity. 

[devilish]

33 minutes ago, Sullen said:

So you'd give Balon some lands in the Riverlands as well as the North? That's unorthodox, but I see the sense in it.

Balon can hardly rebel if he's left in a situation that vulnerable. The main advantage of holding the Iron Isles only is that it becomes difficult to counterattack you, but with most of his territory on the mainland now, he stands more to lose should he ever get uppity. 

No I would give him a big chunk of the Riverlands in exchange of the lands conquered by him in the North. The lands conquered by Balon will be given to the Freys (creating a new region ie the Lord Paramount of the Crossing and the Neck) if Walder agrees to appoint Genna's husband as heir. The Westerlands will get a bit of the Riverlands land (including Riverrun).

Such deal will make everyone who bend the knee to Joffrey happy

a- Balon will exchange the swampy lands in the neck for Fertile Lands in the Riverlands. He'll also avoid the North revenge.
b- The Freys will get more land and Walder will finally become a Lord Paramount. Considering that the Freys are loaded they will be expected to restore Moat Cailin and resist the Northerners for long enough until support arrive from the South.
c- The Lannisters will see their lands increased which would include Riverrun (a nice home for Kevan)
d- The Iron islanders will take most of the Riverlands including Harrenhal. Considering that the iron islanders can raise more troops than the Freys, it shouldnt be a problem for them to stabilise the lands and put the rebels in place.

If the North rebels, then the Freys should be able to hold them off  for enough time until they get support from the South. The Greyjoys will provide help because they know that they would be next in line to be invaded by the angry wolves. 

If the Greyjoys rebel then they will find themselves surrounded by enemies (ie crownlands, the reach, the freys and the westerlands)

If the Freys rebel then they will be on their own against the North fury.