Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[Lord Varys]

@bemused

George occasionally extends the scope of the chapter so the third-person narrator knows and tells us about things the character him-/herself doesn't catch (the most extreme example there would be Victarion's magical healing). Thus I think the stuff about the fourth knife is supposed to be information about a fourth knife. The impression the ending of the chapters gives us is that Jon didn't just lose consciousness, it also gives us the impression that he was stabbed more than three times.

You raise a good point with the Yarwyck question - if there was a conspiracy going on between Thorne and Marsh it is unlikely that they would have included Yarwyck from the start. But if Yarwyck was as pissed (or even more pissed) about the decisions Lord Commander Snow was making it would not be impossible at all that Yarwyck later began conspiring with Marsh.

I don't think he did but it certainly is a possibility. And I'm pretty sure that Yarwyck is going to approve of Jon's murder after the fact even if he didn't participate in it. That is, if not everything is going to hell.

But I still see no reason to believe Thorne had any hand in all that at all. This isn't an anti-Jon movement, it is against Jon's political agenda, and I'd actually not be surprised one bit if the deed in the end was essentially nothing but them putting down and oathbreaker and deserter rather than all that connected to his politics. The wildlings are there now. They have to deal with them, and presumably they don't want to kill them all (that would be both stupid and very dangerous) but by killing Jon they (hoped to) prevent(ed) a war between the Night's Watch/wildlings and the Boltons/Iron Throne. And there was no chance whatsoever that the NW and the wildlings could win such a war. No chance at all.

Satin is likely to be Jon's man. Marsh's objection to him seems to have to do with his common birth, his previous profession as a male whore, and his (apparent?) homosexuality. Jon's mother may be unknown but he is most definitely a Stark bastard on his father's side and thus light years away from rabble like Satin.

[bemused]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Satin is likely to be Jon's man. Marsh's objection to him seems to have to do with his common birth, his previous profession as a male whore, and his (apparent?) homosexuality. Jon's mother may be unknown but he is most definitely a Stark bastard on his father's side and thus light years away from rabble like Satin.

It was Septon Cellador (the souse) who first objected to Satin being a"whore and a "painted catamite" and Bowen only asks if Jon thinks the men would "follow a whore" secondary to his initial "good birth" objection. I agree Jon is light years away from Satin - as far as anyone knows. (I happen to suspect he's a Hightower bastard, but that's another story)

But I want to take you back to the distinction made by Dunk in the Mystery Knight..

"I saw the dragon's egg." Dunk squirrled the food away with their hard-bread and salt beef. "It was red, mostly. Does Lord Bloodraven own a dragon's egg as well?" Egg lowered his book. "Why would he? He's baseborn."

"Bastard born, not baseborn." Bloodraven had been born on the wrong side of the blanket, but he was noble on both sides.

So noble bastards (almost completely of good birth), bastards accorded the common surname (implying nobility of whatever degree on one side) or baseborn (common on both sides and no last name).. Maybe there are even more distinctions, IDK.

To all appearances (and possibly in actuality) Satin would be base born coming to the NW with just one name.. I'm not sure that Bowen would go so far as accepting Jon as being "of good birth" with the status of his mother being unknown(though being castle raised would be a point in his favour). It all depends on how fussy Bowen is, and I think he's pretty fussy.

OTOH, I don't think the apparent homosexuality is that much of an issue, or Alf wouldn't be a close associate.

I suspect Mully's "winter friends are friends forever" is a clue to his friendship with Marsh.. if so, how close? (I'm teasing, here, about the closeness. Pure speculation.)

I want to reply to some of the rest, but later...

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, bemused said:

But I want to take you back to the distinction made by Dunk in the Mystery Knight..

"I saw the dragon's egg." Dunk squirrled the food away with their hard-bread and salt beef. "It was red, mostly. Does Lord Bloodraven own a dragon's egg as well?" Egg lowered his book. "Why would he? He's baseborn."

"Bastard born, not baseborn." Bloodraven had been born on the wrong side of the blanket, but he was noble on both sides.

So noble bastards (almost completely of good birth), bastards accorded the common surname (implying nobility of whatever degree on one side) or baseborn (common on both sides and no last name).. Maybe there are even more distinctions, IDK.

To all appearances (and possibly in actuality) Satin would be base born coming to the NW with just one name.. I'm not sure that Bowen would go so far as accepting Jon as being "of good birth" with the status of his mother being unknown(though being castle raised would be a point in his favour). It all depends on how fussy Bowen is, and I think he's pretty fussy.

OTOH, I don't think the apparent homosexuality is that much of an issue, or Alf wouldn't be a close associate.

I suspect Mully's "winter friends are friends forever" is a clue to his friendship with Marsh.. if so, how close? (I'm teasing, here, about the closeness. Pure speculation.)

I want to reply to some of the rest, but later...

You have to keep in mind that Marsh is a Northman, and Jon Snow is a Stark bastard. The idea that he sees him as baseborn is a very unlikely setting in that scenario, especially in light of the fact that many Stark bastards seem to have joined the NW in the past to rise to high office in their ranks.

For a Targaryen prince any man not born of an (incestuous) marriage can be seen as baseborn. A Blackwood mother isn't exactly the peek of nobility for a royal prince.

In general, we know that the steward/squire of the Lord Commander is groomed for command. That's what Jeor did with Jon. Marsh isn't wrong to groom a male whore of common birth to be seen as the potential next Lord Commander. The Watch may suck in these days but that makes it look even more degenerate. Especially if people came to look at this appointment as part of Jon Snow's own sexual preferences - he might have made Satin his steward because the man had become his lover. That would be undue favoritism.