Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Greywater-Watch

Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

Recommended Posts

I wish to put forward three theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at Castle Black. I will propose them in a parallel way and deliberately stretch the interpretation of each detail to its extreme to fit in one of the theories. The truth may lie in between the three theories, but I prefer to think out of the box and go to extremes.

I will lead through the last Jon chapter in ADWD chronologically.

Theory a: The assassination was planned on short notice, from an impulse by Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. The trigger point was the declaration of Jon’s decision to go to Winterfell, which Bowen and Othell regard as a break of the Night Watch’s vow not to interfere with politics in the Seven Kingdoms.

Theory b: In fact close to Theory a, but Jon Snow (b1) or Melisandre (b2) wrote the Pink Letter (Jon to get a legitimation to go to Winterfell, Melisandre to gain Jon’s trust and make one of her prophecies finally come true). But this gun fires back (unintentionally) as it triggers off Bowen and Othell to react (see Theory a).

Theory c: The assassination was planned well before the day of Jon’s assassination. The Pink Letter was part of the plan. Other people have been part of the plot (Clydas, Selyse Baratheon, at least one of Jon’s guards, maybe some Wildlings).

JS tells Selyse (in presence of all Queen’s men and Melisandre) that he intends to lead the ranging to rescue the wildlings at Hardhome. Selyse tells JS that she would prefer a different Lord Commander. Selyse receives Gerrick Redbeard, names him „King oft he Wildlings“. She declares that she intends to marry Val with Ser Patrek, which Val does not know yet of.

1-a,b: The usual unhappy discussion between Selyse and Jon.

1-c: Selyse is now a real foe of JS, wishing him dead.

Leaving Selyse’s room, JS tells Melisandre on the steps outside (probably overheard by Selyse’s guards) that he does not dare to let Ghost run free as long as Borroq (the Wildling skinchanger) and his bear are at CB. JS accuses Melisandre also of being wrong in three crucial visions and refuses to talk to her. Melisandre replies: „look to the skies, when you have your answer, send to me“.

2-a: No deeper meaning

2-b: Melisandre feels she has completely lost Jon’s trust. She decides to regain his trust by cheating. So she invents a prophecy, which she intends to make come true by faking the Pink Letter. Until now all prophecies took more than only half a day to become true, the Pink Letter will be delivered the evening of the same day.

2-c: If she did not already know it, now Selyse by her guards is informed that for a short time from now on Jon will be without protection of his direwolf.

JS tells Toregg to inform all leading men to gather in the Shield Hall at nightfall.

JS’s guards in front of his room (Mully and Fulk the Flea) tell him that Ghost was behaving strange and aggresive and had tried to bite Mully. JS thinks Ghost is in that mood because of the presence of Borroq’s boar at CB.

3-a,b: Just as JS thinks, Ghost is only in a bad mood because of the presence of Borroq’s bear. It has nothing to do with the guards. Proof is that the direwolf is even aggressive towards Jon himself.

3-c: We know that direwolves (remember Grey-Wind when Robb leaves Riverrun) can sniff out treason. A clear indication that Ghost has identified treasonous intentions in Mully. Borroq’s bear is too far away (at the other end of Castle Black) to play a role here.

JS meets with Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck to discuss his plans to settle widlings in the empty castles at the wall, the ranging to Hardhome and tells them about his conversation with Selyse. Both officers show themselves not helpful at all. “As they walked through the armory, Ghost sniffed at them, his tail upraised and bristling.”

4-a,b: The usual fruitless discussions between JS and Bowen and Othell. Ghost is in a bad mood, so nothing special in his reaction when Othell and Bowen pass by. He does not like the two anyway, sensing that the relation between Jon and them is tense.

4-c: Again, Ghost clearly identifies the treason, Othell and Bowen have already planned.

Tormund arrives at CB with 50 wildling fighters, JS receives Tormund in his office. During their conversation Mully announces Clydas was very disturbed by a letter he received. JS asks Clydas to be sent in. Clydas is very shaken (white in the face) and hands a letter (sealed with a smear of hard pink wax) to Jon. The only thing Clydas has read is the word „Bastard“ on the outer side of the scroll.

5-a: The Pink Letter arrived by raven, written by someone outside CB. Nothing special.

5-b,c: The Pink Letter cannot stem from Roose or Ramsay Bolton as there is no sigil in the wax. Further, the timing is too perfect to be a coincidence: Had the letter arrived only one day later, and JS would be off to Hardhome for a long time, either not returning at all or with thousands of Wildlings.

5-b2: Melisandre had the wits and surely the means to fake the letter.

5-b1: Jon is not very surprised to get the letter. He plays a bit of mummers show to Tormund (“Snow?” said Tormund Giantsbane. “You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’that paper.”) But his calm thoughts and his reflection “You were right to be afraid.” towards Clydas before even reading the letter, reveal that Jon wrote the letter himself. Probably Clydas and maybe even Mully were informed about the roles they had to play.

5-c: Why should Mully push JS to receive Clydas? Why should Clydas be so afraid, when the only thing he could read was the word “Bastard” on the outer side of the scroll? No, Clydas knew the content of the letter and he was so pale and nervous because of his part in the conspiracy against JS.

JS sends Clydas away and then breaks the seal and reads the Pink Letter, first silent to himself, then to Tormund (who claims he could not read). Due to the content of the letter, JS tells Tormund he would change his plans for the ranging to Hardhome (both discuss this matter for 2 hours).

JS’s guards Fulk and Mully are replaced due to shift change by Horse and Rory.

JS moves together with his guards and Tormund to the Shield Hall. There he notes the presence of:

  • About five times more Wildlings are present than men of the Night Watch

  • Bowen Marsh (with Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew, Alf of Runnymudd)

  • Othell Yarwyck (surrounded by his builders)

  • Soren Shieldbreaker, Howd Wanderer, Gavin the Trader, Harle the Handsome (Wildling leaders, Gavin and Harle whispering to each other)

  • Borroq (Wildling skinchanger) without his bear

  • Ser Narbert Grandison and Ser Benethon Scales (the only Queen’s men present)

  • Melisandre arrives during JS’s speech

6-c: All the Queen’s men should be present. JS let Toregg spread the word that all leading men should assemble in the Shield Hall by nightfall. That surely should have flattered all Queen’s men. Their absence (except of two in order not to rouse suspicion) proves: They are elsewhere, busy to prepare the scene for Jon’s assassination.

JS explains that Tormund would – instead of himself – lead the ranging to Hardhome, reads the Pink Letter aloud to the assembled men of the Night Watch and the Wildlings, declares that he would himself go to Winterfell to rescue Mance Rayder, declares he would not take any man of the Night Watch in order to prevent them from breaking their vow not to mingle in affairs of the realm, then asks if any man would accompany him (i.e. the Wilding men gathered) and receives stronger support of these than he dared to hope for.

The moment JS declares he would head for Winterfell, Othell Yarwyck and Bowen Marsh, together with their men leave the Shield Hall. Melisandre and the two Queen’s men leave shortly after.

7-a: Othell and Bowen have heard sufficient and do not need to hear the feedback of the Wildlings on JS’s proposition to accompany him. They leave and maybe decide just now to assassinate Jon.

7-b: The ruse with the letter has worked out, just as Jon or Melisandre wished it would.

7-b2: Melisandre retires to her chambers, hoping JS would visit her and thank her for the useful prophecy she gave him.

7-c: All foes implied in the conspiracy (Queen’s men and Bowen, Othell) have time to gather outside

JS leaves the Shield Hall together with his guards, Horse and Rory, leaving Tormund and the Wildlings behind.

Right when out of the Hall, a loud cry is heard, Horse „reports“ at once, the noise came from Hardin’s Tower.

8-c: Strange that Horse knows at once where the cry comes from, and strange that the “reports”, so he is unnaturally calmed. Horse is one of the traitors. The conspirators have decided to lure Jon away from the Shield Hall to put some distance between JS and the Wildlings, who are a risk as they would probably defend JS.

JS runs there. He sees Wun Wun swinging the dead body of a man who apparently has attacked Wun Wun with his sword. JS identifies the man as Ser Patrek by his garment, his squashed face is no longer distinguishable. JS tries to calm Wun Wun. He calls out not to draw weapons and asks Leathers to speak to Wun Wun in the Old Tongue.

„Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen’s men…“

9-a,b: An incident easy to explain: Ser Patrek wanted to get to Val, but had troubles to get around Wun Wun. Overestimating his forces, he attacked the giant. A big but fortunate coincidence for the traitors Bowen and Yarwyck.

9-c: Are we sure it is really Ser Patrek? Maybe they made Wun Wun drunk and forced someone else to attack the giant (e.g. Clegane Karstark), disguising him with Ser Patrek’s garment. And this is much too lucky a convenient situation for the traitors Bowen and Othell to be true. This is not a coincidence, but part of the plan to assassinate JS. A big turmoil, JS far away from his Wildling friends, it would probably take some time until someone realizes the attack on JS, sufficient for the traitors to finish their crime before someone interferes.

Then JS is attacked: First by Wick Whittlestick (JS evades his first attempt and thus only receives a non-deadly bleeding wound, then unarms him). Wick says: „For the Watch.“

JS tries to draw his sword, but does not succeed („…his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.“)

10-a,b: As the text says, Jon’s finger are cold, clumsy or whatever.

10-c: JS is not a dude like prince Aegon or Quentyn Martell, who are well trained but in the decisive moment are too afraid to move or draw a weapon. This is JS, unlikely that he would not be able to draw Longclaw in such a situation. His scabbard has been manipulated, so that JS cannot draw his sword.

Second attacker is Bowen Marsh, also saying „For the Watch.“, then burying a dagger in JS’s belly.

Third attacker is not identified, but stabs JS from behind („… the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades,…“).

JS whispers the word „Ghost“, then appears to become unconscious and is apparently attacked by a fourth person: „He never felt the fourth knive.

 11-a,b: JS is stabbed by four attackers.

11-c: One attacker at least from behind. GRRM has often characters mentioning that foes should be kept in front, but friends in the back. So, here someone JS thought to be a friend was amongst the attackers, probably one of his guards (Horse?). Strange also that no one is noticed by Jon coming for help. The conspiracy obviously has a lot of supporters. No Ghost, no Wildling (like Tormund) to help Jon: Very well planned, Bowen and Yarwyck alone could not have done that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great post! I love how you are presenting 3 different theories with the same passages. I did have just a few counterpoints to a few of the things you said:

9-c: Are we sure it is really Ser Patrek? Maybe they made Wun Wun drunk and forced someone else to attack the giant (e.g. Clegane Karstark), disguising him with Ser Patrek’s garment. And this is much too lucky a convenient situation for the traitors Bowen and Othell to be true. This is not a coincidence, but part of the plan to assassinate JS. A big turmoil, JS far away from his Wildling friends, it would probably take some time until someone realizes the attack on JS, sufficient for the traitors to finish their crime before someone interferes.

I also think it unlikely that it was a coincidence that WW was attacked at that moment, but I didn't see any clues that it might not be Ser Patrek. While the plan was to start a fight w WW to create a diversion, I doubt it was originally conceived as a suicide mission. (Also, I'm pretty sure GRRM did some sort of interview recently that he talks about Ser Patrek, and according to that interview, it seems like it was him, and he's all the way dead.)

10-c: JS is not a dude like prince Aegon or Quentyn Martell, who are well trained but in the decisive moment are too afraid to move or draw a weapon. This is JS, unlikely that he would not be able to draw Longclaw in such a situation. His scabbard has been manipulated, so that JS cannot draw his sword.

While I had never considered this, I like this idea a lot. I just don't know if that's the kind of thing that's possible. I just can't think of many reasons the LC would be separated from his sword. Especially when that LC is Ned Starks son... you know he was most likely sharpening and caring for his sword himself. I don't remember specifically paying attention to his sword though... maybe he leaves it behind when eating? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Aedam Targaryen said:

I just don't know if that's the kind of thing that's possible. I just can't think of many reasons the LC would be separated from his sword. Especially when that LC is Ned Starks son... you know he was most likely sharpening and caring for his sword himself. I don't remember specifically paying attention to his sword though... maybe he leaves it behind when eating? 

Might be sufficient to wet the scabbard with water. With the temperatures at CB it would freeze and block the sword.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

 

I wish to put forward three theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at Castle Black. I will propose them in a parallel way and deliberately stretch the interpretation of each detail to its extreme to fit in one of the theories. The truth may lie in between the three theories, but I prefer to think out of the box and go to extremes.

I will lead through the last Jon chapter in ADWD chronologically.

Theory a: The assassination was planned on short notice, from an impulse by Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. The trigger point was the declaration of Jon’s decision to go to Winterfell, which Bowen and Othell regard as a break of the Night Watch’s vow not to interfere with politics in the Seven Kingdoms.

Theory b: In fact close to Theory a, but Jon Snow (b1) or Melisandre (b2) wrote the Pink Letter (Jon to get a legitimation to go to Winterfell, Melisandre to gain Jon’s trust and make one of her prophecies finally come true). But this gun fires back (unintentionally) as it triggers off Bowen and Othell to react (see Theory a).

Theory c: The assassination was planned well before the day of Jon’s assassination. The Pink Letter was part of the plan. Other people have been part of the plot (Clydas, Selyse Baratheon, at least one of Jon’s guards, maybe some Wildlings).

 

Option b doesn't work at all.  There is no indication that Jon is at all aware of the contents of the letter before he reads it.  Also, no way is Jon going to disclose Mance's survival and the rescue attempt for his sister unless he has to.  In addition, the letter clearly references "Arya"'s disappearance ("I want my bride back") which neither Mel nor Jon would know about.  I doubt it is a coincidence.

I think it is a combination of a and c.  The attack has been planned, or considered, for some time, and Jon's decision to leave CB and take on Ramsay forced the plotters' hand.  Either they had had no good opportunities, or Jon hadn't yet done anything worth killing him over.  In any case, they had to move immediately or lose their opportunity.  Thus the attack, which gives the appearance of having been minimally planned (the number of attackers is quite small, and there are lots of allies of Jon present).  I seriously doubt that the letter was part of the plan.  It shows too many signs of having been written by Ramsay and contains information that plotters at CB would be unlikely to know. (Arya's disappearance, Mance being alive, for instance)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Might be sufficient to wet the scabbard with water. With the temperatures at CB it would freeze and block the sword.

Yea I guess it could be that easy. I was trying to imagine how one would go about sabotaging that, and all the ways that I could think of were much more complicated. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jon’s death was not a murder. it was not an insurrection or rebellion. it was a sacrifice. Jon’s death wasn’t even a sacrifice made by the Watch.

I believe Jon was sacrificed by someone using a glass candle who made the conspirators sleepwalk. That's why the stewards body language said "it wasn't me."

Theory: https://endgameofthrones.com/2015/06/10/a-shocking-new-theory-for-the-night/ 

I believe that Jon Snow was sacrificed to wake the stone dragon, that is made of ice. 

Theory: https://endgameofthrones.com/2015/05/30/the-stone-dragon-is-made-of-ice/?preview_id=174

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As stated above, we have Jons own POV on the matter, so he is clearly not involved.  I do believe that the conspirators opened the letter before it went to Jon, and that is why the seal was gone and it was just a smear, they could re-melt the wax using any candle but did not have the intricate stamp the Boltons have.  I believe they were probably on the edge about doing it, but that the letter and Jons reaction pushed them over the edge, so when they saw their chance they took it, that is why they did not fully think through the fact that the wildlings outnumber the watch 5-1.  I assume they would have waited until Tormund led the ranging to Hardhome and the numbers were more in their favor and ambushed them when most people were sleeping.

Ser Patrek went after Val because Jon told him she would not accept a match made that way and he had to steal her, Ser Patrek replied that no one has ever had cause to question his courage and neither would Val, so he went to try and steal her in their custom, again simply taking advantage of the fact that Jon called everyone to the hall.  The rest of the queens men were not there simply because of politics, Selyse doesn't like Jon so they curry favor from Selyse by rejecting his invitation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also don't see how Jon could possibly be the author of the PL. Or Mel for that matter. It simply doesn't work, imo. I think the PL was indeed written by Ramsay. And I agree with @aryagonnakill#2 that Marsh & Co had a soft plan but what they heard in the Shieldhall made them decide to act then and there. Quite fortunate for Jon that they did, btw, since now the wildlings can take over the NW. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Jon's assassination was quickly decided upon, but there were many people involved, Theory A.  An opportunity was created after the public reading of the Pink Letter but Marsh and Yarwyck devised the plan after meeting with Jon in his solar.  I think enough people were clear that they did not like the way Jon was doing things and they had indicated through nods and whispers that the Watch would be better off without Jon as LC.  The Queen's men were probably part of it, a diversion was created, probably not what they really intended for Ser Patrek, and they jumped Jon away from the Wildings.  

The scabbard was not tampered with though.  There are many, many instances throughout the books where men state that they loosened their swords in the scabbards.  How many times does Jon say that he flexed his fingers or hand when he anticipates trouble. He wasn't anticipating needing the sword, and he was just too slow and clumsy to defend himself. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Greywater-Watch

What makes you think Othell Yarwyck is part of Marsh's cabal? He doesn't show up during the assassination as far as we know as of yet. Othell is always described as a follower. I'd not be so convinced that Marsh trusted him with something as dangerous as this.

My personal guess is that there was a growing unrest among the old guard of the Watch since Jon began to implement his new policies involving fraternizing with the wildlings and depleting the stores of the NW in the process. Mance hints at Marsh scheming with people as early as the Mel chapter.

There might have been talks and plans for an assassination for quite some time but the fact that Jon wasn't taken out before he had brought the wildlings through the Wall is a strong sign that they were either not yet ready or not really willing to do it. A coup would have had much more chances of success if there weren't thousands of additional wildlings at the Wall.

I think the Pink Letter was a genuine letter from Ramsay and that Jon's later decision to actually march with the wildlings down to Winterfell, breaking his vows in the process was the last drop.

Bowen has tears in his eyes when he stabs Jon, after all. He does not want to do this but he feels he has no other choice.

Another important factor would have been Stannis' alleged death. With him out of the way Bowen and his cronies are less likely to face immediate repercussions from him or his allies in the North.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to know if everyone thinks it is just a coincidence that Ghost was not there, even after Mel's warning.  Jon refuses to let his wolf out just because it might upset a pet pig??  If there was a conspiracy was GRRM in on it lol?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

I would like to know if everyone thinks it is just a coincidence that Ghost was not there, even after Mel's warning.  Jon refuses to let his wolf out just because it might upset a pet pig??  If there was a conspiracy was GRRM in on it lol?

Idk if coincidence is the word for it. But yeah Jon didn't have Ghost just bc of the pet pig. It goes along with sort of a theme throughout the books. Remember Robb ignores Catelyn's warnings to have Grey Wind with him while with the Freys. And Tyrion warns Aegon to always keep his dragon close. Same quote could work for the direwolves 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

I would like to know if everyone thinks it is just a coincidence that Ghost was not there, even after Mel's warning.  Jon refuses to let his wolf out just because it might upset a pet pig??  If there was a conspiracy was GRRM in on it lol?

Har! there might be a conspiracy afoot. Jonboy has not yet learned to trust that Ghost knows stuff. Ghost acted up when Benjen’s two wighted men were rampaging around CB. Ghost acted up at the ring wall of the Fist. Ghost isn’t acting up because of da pig. Could be Ghost was acting up due to those dead men LC Snow had put in the ice cells?

Or not. Maybe Ghost had been acting up this time because he knew Jon was in danger. And where was Mormont’s raven during all the hoopla? :smoking: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Theory A

That is the only theory that makes sense. 

  1. Jon Snow was obsessing over his sister, Arya Stark.  It was obvious he wanted to help her even knowing it violated his oaths. 
  2. Mellissandre opens the door for Jon to save his sister.  It was still Jon's decision and his responsibility.  He chose to let Mance Rayder off the execution block in order to send the man to get his sister out of her Bolton marriage.
  3. Jon uses the little wildling boy, Dalla's baby, to coerce Mance to rescue fake Arya.  He let Mance think he had the baby and used it to get Mance to do his dirty work. 
  4. Mance asks for a handful of tough wildling women to infiltrate Winterfell.  Jon provides the women.
  5. Mance and his women take shelter in Winterfell and passes themselves off as traveling entertainers.  They partake of Bolton hospitality and murder Bolton men.  They violate guest rights.
  6. Mance gets Theon and fake Arya out of Winterfell but gets caught in the process.  Jon's illegal actions are brought to light.  Ramsay writes the Pink Letter.  Jon's illegal activities get exposed.
  7. Jon recruits the wildlings to his cause.  Wildlings who were allowed through to protect the wall not attack the people of the kingdom.  Jon announced his intentions to ride out and attack the Boltons. 
  8. Bowen Marsh and his men had no choice but to stop their mad lord commander from riding out to battle the Boltons. 

Jon Snow committed treason.  He was about to make the situation a hundred times worse until Bowen Marsh stopped him.  Bowen had a duty to the Night's Watch and to the realm to stop his crazy ass lord commander from doing something even worse than what the Night's King had done thousands of years ago.  Jon had to be stopped. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A. 

No one at the wall was happy about what was going on. As many have said above, Jon was committing treason, straight up. I'd say it's understandable treason, but inexcusable in the eyes of his men. Jon telling them he's ditching them to go play the Game of Thrones with his new wildling buddies was just the last straw that drove Marsh and his cohort to murder. 

I don't see there being enough communication between the different factions to create a multi-front coup attempt. 

I also think it had to a hasty plan for them not to consider the obvious peril of murdering Jon. They're outnumbered bad by the wildings and they just stabbed the man who risked everything to save them. 

And if a raging giant was part of their plan, they needed a less suicidal one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What makes you think Othell Yarwyck is part of Marsh's cabal? He doesn't show up during the assassination as far as we know as of yet. Othell is always described as a follower. I'd not be so convinced that Marsh trusted him with something as dangerous as this.

This is in fact a detail of my theory I am least worried about. Bowen and Othell act as bad counsellors to Jon, are sniffed at with displease by Ghost, leave the Shield Hall - all together. Two of the attackers are identified, two others are not. Even if none of Othell's people or himself did not actually attack Jon with a dagger, Othell was most probably informed about the planned assassination, I believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

A. 

No one at the wall was happy about what was going on. As many have said above, Jon was committing treason, straight up. I'd say it's understandable treason, but inexcusable in the eyes of his men. Jon telling them he's ditching them to go play the Game of Thrones with his new wildling buddies was just the last straw that drove Marsh and his cohort to murder. 

I don't see there being enough communication between the different factions to create a multi-front coup attempt. 

I also think it had to a hasty plan for them not to consider the obvious peril of murdering Jon. They're outnumbered bad by the wildings and they just stabbed the man who risked everything to save them. 

And if a raging giant was part of their plan, they needed a less suicidal one. 

I think saying "no one" was happy with Jon is inaccurate. I actually think he had a decent sized group of supporters within the NW. And Bowen Marsh & Co. were the minority. At the very least the majority of NW was indifferent. 

I think there was at least a tentative plan to murder or overthrow Jon before the PL. I think the PL just sped up the plan and the giant issue gave the an opportunity. I can't give them enough credit without more information to say they somehow planned the giant incident 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

This is in fact a detail of my theory I am least worried about. Bowen and Othell act as bad counsellors to Jon, are sniffed at with displease by Ghost, leave the Shield Hall - all together. Two of the attackers are identified, two others are not. Even if none of Othell's people or himself did not actually attack Jon with a dagger, Othell was most probably informed about the planned assassination, I believe.

Keep in mind that Tyrion was disliked by the direwolves as well (Shaggy and Grey Wind, if I remember correctly) and he never plotted against the Starks.

Was Marc Antony complicit in Caesar's murder because he was friends with many of the assassins (as was Caesar himself) and spoke with one of them shortly before the assassination took place?

Even if Yarwyck knew about the assassination - and we don't know that he did - this wouldn't be proof that he was actually involved in it.

My personal guess is that Marsh's political views are shared by 70-80% of the Watchmen. They basically all hate the wildlings. Now, hating them and assassinating the Lord Commander are different, of course, but Marsh could very well have kept his most assassination plans to a core cabal group knowing fully well that the Watch would fall in line behind once the Bastard had been dealt with.

Jon's very real problem he refused to see is that he sent all the men away to command other keeps or to go ranging beyond the Wall. There is a lot of tension early on in ADwD when he decides to execute Slynt. Had he not been prepared to go through with this with the help of men he could trust would follow his orders things could have come to blows way back then. It didn't because he had enough support. Later on he doesn't - at least not in the Watch. 

That way he wouldn't be forced to make turn most of his brothers against their Lord Commander - although they had the perfect pretext for Jon's assassination on the table after the Shieldhall. He broke his vows, and thus it was actually perfectly legal to put him down. His death wasn't a murder it was an execution.

One can wonder whether the NW has the right to do stuff like that considering that the kings of Westeros usually took it upon themselves to punish treasonous Lord Commanders of the NW (like the Night's King or Runcel Hightower) one assumes that the officers and brothers of the Watch have a right to, well, replace a commander who breaks his vows and becomes a danger to the Watch. People even argue Arya had a right to 'execute' Dareon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/18/2016 at 10:15 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

Theory a: The assassination was planned on short notice, from an impulse by Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. The trigger point was the declaration of Jon’s decision to go to Winterfell, which Bowen and Othell regard as a break of the Night Watch’s vow not to interfere with politics in the Seven Kingdoms.

This

We know the spearwomen got caught.  Winterfell goes on full alert and tight lockdown.  Ramsay convinces the spearwomen to talk.  He doesn't do this in a nice way but he's nevertheless convincing.  The women talk.  Mance is outed and caught.  Ramsay questions Mance.  Ramsay has all the information he needs to write the Pink Letter. 

The Pink Letter arrives at the wall and Jon's clandestine activities are revealed.  Jon sets aside his duties and chooses to save Arya over the welfare of the wall and the kingdom.  Treason.  Bowen and his allies had no choice.  Jon's crimes are punishable by death.  He was also getting ready to attack House Bolton with an army of wildlings. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×