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Nevets

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  1. Nevets

    Meanwhile back at the Wall

    Reasonable demands? The guy boasts of torturing captives and you want to send him more? I think not. Besides, the men are described as loyal to Mel. People loyal to her tend to be pretty fanatical about it. They will fight. Their most sensible response, if they think Ramsay is on the way, is to evacuate, either to Eastwatch or even Braavos (probably with FArya in tow). The NW doesn't have the forces to prevent it, in any case. The will care if they want someplace to come back to. Jon is the best friend they have got, and they know it. Besides, there are also wlidlings at other castles, plus the hostages, locations unknown. They will probably fight for Jon. Jon did not choose to make enemies of the Boltons. He isn't quite that stupid. He sent a covert mission to rescue his sister. The idea was that the Boltons wouldn't know. That may not have been the wisest course, but it is hardly picking a fight with the Boltons. Of course, once Mance goes to Winterfell and gets caught, he is pretty much stuck with it. Btu it wasn't his intent. Not that that really matters. We're here to discuss the future, not the past. And unless Marsh's forces are a lot better organized than I think they are, they're going to lose. Badly.
  2. Nevets

    Sansa and Cognitive Dissonance

    Of course she disliked his looks. Almost anyone would. However, the main reason she dislikes him is because he is a Lannister. You remember, the ones who destroyed her family and forced her to marry him in the first place? She has no reason to like him, based on what she knows. As for judging people on looks, Joffrey taught her that looks aren't everything; not by a long shot. While her character in AGOT was a bit shallow, she has grown greatly since then.
  3. Nevets

    The role of Jon Snow in TWoW

    I expect that when Jeyne Poole arrives at the Wall, Jon will be either dead, comatose, or otherwise unavailable. Given that Ramsay is apparently actively looking for her, whoever is in charge will probably want to get her out of town as soon a possible. Sending her to Braavos with Tycho Nestoris (the banker) and Justin Massey makes a lot of sense. I can even see Tycho fostering her if he thinks it would advance his own position or that of the Bank. In any case, I doubt that Jon will be meeting FArya or know that she is fake. I don't think GRRM would have had Theon tell her to maintain the masquerade unless it had a role to play. By the way, Jon and Theon are the only people in the area that can identify her as fake, and Theon isn't going to do so. I think that Jon is only injured, although severely. Even if he is dead, I expect him to be revived/resurrected relatively quickly. By the time he i sfunctional, the situation with Stannis and the Boltons will likely be clear.what happens next will depend heavily on the outcome of that confrontation. In any event, I don't think he will abandon the Nights Watch or its mission. If he does leave,, it will be to take a leadership role so that he can better "defend the realms of man."
  4. Nevets

    Sansa and Cognitive Dissonance

    She dislikes him mainly because he is a Lannister. She has no reason to like any Lannister - all they have done is hurt her. Had they been together longer and/or she had had a chance to get to know him, it might have worked. I still think the possibility exists as a political partnership. I think any chance of a long-term liaison with Littlefinger is minimal. She doesn't trust him, never has, and their worldview and interests are far too different.
  5. Nevets

    Meanwhile back at the Wall

    A few observations: 50 armed men accompanied Selyse. Jon describes them as Queen's Men, but loyal to Melisandre. I've no reason to doubt this assessment. They will definitely fight for Melisandre, and almost certainly for Stannis's family. They will definitely not support Marsh. Given Jon's support for Stannis, they might fight for him, and certainly will if Melisandre orders it. How they will respond to Wildlings I have no idea. Bowen Marsh and his fellow conspirators appear to have struck before they were really ready, necessitated by Jon leaving Castle Black and taking overt action against the Boltons. I doubt that they have any follow up planneds,or any supporters in place. If I'm wrong and they do, then they could take over relatively easily. But I doubt that is the case. Gor practical purposes, there are three sides in the NW; those that supprot Jon, consisting of Rangers, new recruits, and some others who believe in him on the threat to the North. Marsh's support will be mostly with the stewards and builders, and could be pretty thin. Most of the NW is there because they have to be, and probably don't care much. They will probably go along with whoever wins out. Given that the conspirators were using daggers, and Jon had thick winter clothing, plus probably a leather jack (at least), there is the distinct possibility that the wounds are not fatal. In that case,much will depend on how long he is out of commission. My guess is that the Marsh forces will not be able to take effective command. Mel's forces would probably oppose that, and I don't think the wildlings would go along either. If he had forces in place, it would work , but I don't think he does. My guess is that the Jon loyalists, with help from Mel and/or the wildlings, ultimately prevail, but it cosuld get mesy.
  6. Nevets

    Meanwhile back at the Wall

    For some reason, I had assumed that Melisandre was in ADWD partly so that he could use her in TWOW without adding a POV, which he has said he won't do. I am certainly not aware of any statement that she won't have one in TWOW. I have always assumed she will have at least a couple For possible POVs, I think Jeyne Poole will be arriving shortly after the stabbing. As a person with no background knowledge, she would be perfect. I don't think Jon will be gone all that long, though.
  7. Nevets

    Meanwhile back at the Wall

    "Queen Selyse descended on Castle Black with a retinue of ... knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong." ADWD, Jon IX. A fairly formidable force, if it wants to be. It certainly won't support the mutineers. Not sure if they would ally with the wildlings, though. It is also unclear how much of the Night's Watch is loyal to Bowen Marsh, to Jon, or will simply go with whoever wins in the end. Could get messy.
  8. While Sansa has no reason to wish Littlefinger at this point, he has many skeletons in his closet, some of which Sansa could discover. As @Ygrain has pointed out, he lead Ned into a deadly swamp, and took advantage. Plus, his holding a dagger to Ned's throat was hardly a private event. Jeyne Poole's (mal)treatment is likely to anger Sansa if and when she discovers it. The dagger affair could also come to her notice. Her escape from KL, while welcome, came at the cost of her becoming a murder suspect, which was deliberately set up by LF. And that's only what has already happened. It is likely that LF is poisoning Sweetrobin to keep him in a weakened state, and is intending his death when it is convenient (which it isn't right now). Harry the heir is also a likely target for murder. The in the preview chapter could come into play. And when the Others attack the North, Sansa and LF are quite likely to vehemently disagree on whether and how to help the North. And that's just what I can think of right now. More could come, since her ideals and sympathies are very different from his. I have to say, though, that I see little reason for Arya to take action against him, except in concert with Sansa. Certainly not on her own, or with Sansa dead. Unless LF does the killing, in which case it would be quite likely. Btu that is a different story, and not likely to happen.
  9. Nevets

    Yoren's death.

    a big problem is this: given the POV structure, how would we find out? Yoren is dead, Rorge is dead, Amory Lorch is dead, Biter is dead, and I don't think anybody else is going to be talking about it. This isn't real life. If it ain't written, it never happened. This. With questions like this one, it is useful to ask: What is the author trying to accomplish, and is there any point in a hidden agenda? In this case, there really isn't. Yoren's death is simply a means of moving the story forward. If the identity of his killer was going to matter, it already would have.
  10. Nevets

    What would Randyll Tarly do with Sansa.

    Prior to Margaery's arrest, Tarly was a Crown loyalist. If he had come across Sansa, he would have sent her back to KL. She is wanted for regicide, and from his point of view, there is no real reason to doubt that she did it. At this point in the story, after the arrests of Margaery and Cersei, it is hard to say. I think he would probably try to use her as a bargaining chip, possibly for the release of the Tyrell girls. I doubt he would try to marry her to Dickon. Both are otherwise married, and Sansa is of no real value to him in that regard. He has no interest in the North.
  11. Nevets

    Why do people hate Sansa?

    To what end? She is trapped in the Red Keep and surrounded by her enemies. There is no one she can trust, and any expressions of defiance on her part simply get her more abuse. Servants: Her servants are Lannister loyalists and, in any case, are changed regularly so that she isn't able to make friends with any of them. She certainly has no reason to trust them. Escape: Escape on her own is essentially impossible for her at this point, and She knows that KL outside of the Red Keep isn't safe; the last time she left, she damned near got raped and/or killed. Even Arya, whose life experiences better prepared her for that sort of thing, had a rough go of it, and if Yoren hadn't come along, might well have starved or got caught. And the situation has deteriorated since then. Dontos Hollard is, from what she knows, her best hope. of escape. Allies: As I pointed out above, she is surrounded by enemies; either Lannisters or their vassals and supporters. There are also some other hostages, but she doesn't know them real well, and has to fear that they will expose anything she tries to do. As for Tyrion, he is a Lannister; she has no reason to trust him or to think he will try to help her. I think she did the best she could under the circumstances. Keep her head down,, her eyes open, and seize opportunities when they become available (Dontos, the Tyrells). She seems to have gotten savvier. She is following Littlefinger's lead because, for the time being, his interests, such as she understands them, coincide with hers. But she doesn't trust him, and is wary. When the interests don't coincide, watch out.
  12. Nevets

    The Catspaw - means, motive, and opportunity

    I am of the opinion that Joffrey is responsible for the catspaw. Motive: Joffrey both idolizes his father and compares himself to him. He also says later: "A good King acts strongly. He doesn't just talk". Joffrey heard Robert's talk about how it would be merciful and the right thing to put Bran out of his misery, so to say. But Robert wasn't willing to actually do that. Joffrey may have been trying to prove to himself that he was strong enough to be king, and better than his father. Not a great motive, but it beats everything else I have seen so far. Dagger: Given it's presence in Robert's belongings, Joffrey would have had access to it. Other candidates don't. Valyrian steel has two advantages: it is very effective, and it is quite valuable. He could have given the catspaw the dagger to aid in the crime itself, and as part payment, as even if sold at a steep discount, it would probably get him quite a bit of money. Littlefinger certainly has motive after Bran's fall, in that it adds to the suspicions of the Lannisters. But he has no way to act on this fact, and I don't buy the "autopilot" schemes that would have been set up beforehand. Littlefinger isn't that reckless.. Mance has no really convincing motive, nor access to the dagger. Also, I have doubts about why he would have even still been at Winterfell the day before the royal party's planned departure. And given the catspaw's comments about "mercy", I think that that was at least intended as the supposed motive, suggesting it was set up after Bran's fall. While I can't say I particularly like Joffrey as the suspect, it makes a lot more sense to me than any of the alternatives.
  13. Nevets

    Ashara and Ned match

    How does he obtain an annulment? Even if Elia can't conceive (we don't know), they still have two chidren, so I doubt that would be sufficient. And this is assuming that the Starks would go along with this plan and the resulting family and political turmoil. This depends on whether you are looking at it from a hard power or soft power viewpoint. From a hard power (military power) viewpoint, it isn't that great a match. But Rickard already has the North, and would have the Riverlands through Brandon's marriage with Catelyn, and the Stormlands, which Lyanna and Robert. If he can't win, or hold his own, with that, he probably shouldn't be in the field in the first place. The soft power view relates to influence at court. Given Ashara's connections too the KG and the future queen, the marriage could provide the Starks with an inside track at Court, which could be quite valuable. It all really depends on how respected and infouential the Daynes are at this time, and we don't really know that.
  14. Nevets

    Arya will kill Bradamar Frey

    And why would she kill Bradamar? She has not put any Freys on the list until she knows which ones belong there for the Red Wedding. And the list is of people she wants to die, not necessarily those she wants to kill. In any case, Bradamar was definitely not involved with the Red Wedding, so Arya has no reason to kill him, or to even have any interest in him at all. The only way I can even see him in the story is if he gets involved with (f)Arya, if and when she shows up in Braavos.
  15. Nevets

    Ashara and Ned match

    Given Rickard's southron ambitions, and the fact that the likely next queen (Elia Martell) was from Dorne, a marriage into an influential house from Dorne would be a good match. We don't have enough info on how influential House Dayne was at this time, but given that they had a Kingsguard member (back when it was something special), and Ashara was a lady-in-waiting, they probably punched above their weight, so to say. Probably a decent match.
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