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Nevets

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  1. Nevets

    The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

    Uh, no. He means that, with Jon by his side, the Northern lords who haven't thrown in with Bolton will naturally join him. This would include Mormont, Glover, Manderly, Umber, Karstark,, and maybe others. The ones initially at Barrowton are either connected to Bolton through family ties, or are weakened by their lords and heirs deaths. Without Jon, he will have to win by proving himself in battle against the Boltons. Well, he has. If he has to fight the Northerners as a whole, he is screwed, and he knows that much. At worst, the main leaders will sit on the sidelines, which Stannis does not want, and why he wants Jon.
  2. Nevets

    The iron bank will go bankrupt

    Given Braavos's militant opposition to slavery, I doubt that the Iron Bank is heavily invested in locations heavily dependent on slavery. Also, while the elimination of slavery trashed the economy of Meereen, that was because it was dependent on the slave trade itself, which disappeared when slavery did. Other areas use them as forced labor. In those cases, a transition to a paid economy n be made, at least in theory. With regard to Westeros, the Crown is sending an envoy to negotiate with the Iron Bank. There are plenty of ways an agreement can be reached, especially as Cersei has indicated that she is merely suspending payment, not ending them entirely. I expect some arrangement will be reached, possibly involving the Iron Bank getting a cut of revenues from a source such as a mint or customs house in exchange for extending new loans.
  3. Nevets

    The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

    Jon isn't going to be of any help with the first two objectives. He is too far away, and can (so far as Stannis knows) bring no reinforcements. As for the third objective, if he beats the Boltons and takes Winterfell, the North is likely to fall into his lap in any case. If he felt he needed a Stark on hand, having Arya as a figurehead would probably be about as useful as having Jon. And he is going to have a hard time "keeping his promise" to Jon regarding Arya if Jon isn't even at the Wall when she arrives! Stannis's serious efforts at recruiting Jon all take place before his election as LC. Afterwards, he grumbles about it ("Stannis with a grievance was like a mastiff with a bone. He gnawed it to splinters.", thinks Jon), but makes no serious attempt to recruit Jon once he is LC. He seems resigned to the fact that Jon is staying on the Wall. He does say that he will have to win the North by battle if Jon doesn't join him, and guess what? That is exactly what he is doing. As for winning the North, he has the Mormonts on his side, and most likely Glover, after his taking of Deepwood Motte. Mors Umber is on his side, and it appears that Alys Karstark is, as well, given her assistance in exposing her uncle's treachery. That's a good portion of the North. If he can get the Manderlys on his side, he has essentially won. Even if he can't, he is still in pretty good shape.
  4. Sansa - Maid's Blade Dontos - Fool's Tool Hot Pie - Bread Slicer Meera - Prince's Protector or Fish Killer Podrick - Persistence Cersei - Lionsclaw (had to go serious with this one) Sam Tarly - Slayer (gets the name off himself); obsidian dagger called Other's Bane
  5. Nevets

    The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

    The Night's Watch is highly respected in the North, so it is quite possible that the Northern lords would not appreciate Jon abandoning his post to join Stannis, especially as that post is as the Lord Commander. And what happens if the Night's watch sends a message demanding Jon's head for desertion? Also, Stannis has said that he regards the Others as the real enemy. He know that Jon takes that threat seriously, and that many others in the NW do not. He would therefore know that removing Jon endangers that fight, which he regards as being even more important than the one he is currently fighting.
  6. If Ramsay goes riding out,before or after he tortures spearwives, etc., he is going to pretty quickly figure out where Jeyne and Theon are headed - Stannis's camp. He would have no reason to expect that they have moved on from there. And if they are at Stannis's camp, the only way he is going to get them back is to defeat Stannis. If indeed he did - or thinks he did - he will discover that Jeyne is on her way to the Wall, and probably has a several day head start, and is accompanied by a small escort. That means she will probably survive; be riding fast; and probably arrive at the Wall well before Ramsay can catch her. If he can't catch up to her, returning to Winterfell is probably his best option. Then he can threaten Jon and whatnot. Hence the demand for FArya's return, and the implied threat to expose Jon's misdeeds (whether or not the letter was intended for general consumption is unclear). I expect Jeyne to arrive shortly after the attack on Jon. It's possible that Stannis will use the confusion of his apparent defeat to somehow take Winterfell, possibly through a false flag maneuver (a lot easier if your opponent thinks he has won) or an ambush on the way back to Winterfell. A siege is also possible.
  7. The Boltons have very good reason to believe that Jon sent Mance to steal Arya. The fact that Jon did no such thing is irrelevant. That alone would make the Boltons Jon's enemy, and they would act accordingly. The letter could also have been sent with the objective of forcing Mel and the others to leave Castle Black, as staying could be quite dangerous. By the way, do you have any quotes of Stannis wanting to recruit Jon to his cause after his election as LC? Before his election, he is an ordinary NW man, so his claim on Winterfell is his main use. Afterwards, he commands resources of his own, and is useful to Stannis in his capacity of LC, possibly more so than as a disgraced former NW. He is hosting Stannis's family, fortifying the Wall and the Watch, and integrating the Wildlings, all activities that would be threatened by his departure. You also seem to have confused Stannis with a risk-breaker. Stannis is a plodder. Jon thinks that when the Boltons occupy Winterfell, and thinks Stannis won't be bold like his brother, but will plod his way forth. I can't imagine Stannis taking such risks as you are imagining.
  8. Nevets

    How should Robb have gotten his sisters back?

    Keep winning. Jaime is probably too valuable to trade for Sansa. By the way, the Lannisters don't have Arya, so couldn't trade her if they wanted to, a fact which would eventually become apparent. Eventually, if he is sufficiently successful, something might be worked out. Not declaring yourself King in the North would likely help, as it would probably enable you to get allies such as Stannis or Renly, making winning easier.
  9. Nevets

    Predicting the Future of Characters

    Nope. If anyone in that party is going to be a catalyst for Arya's departure, it is likely to be Jeyne Poole. She can fill Arya in events in Westeros, including the North's desire for a Stark, any Stark, and whatever she may have learned while with LF or the Boltons.
  10. Nevets

    The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

    You seem awfully confident that the Boltons, of all people, are going to let in a bunch of guys they don't recognize, just because they claim to be allies. False flag maneuvers have been used by the Boltons before, I expect they will be on the lookout. If they do get in, it will be unarmed and guarded, until properly vouched for, which since they're fake, they won't be
  11. Given that Mors Umber is right outside the gates, it's likely going to be pretty immediately obvious that she was taken to Stannis's camp. At that point, she is out of reach. It's quite possible he knows that Stannis sent her to CB, hence the demand for her return. He may be giving himself a causus belli, or he may believe that, because she is not really his sister, that Jon might be willing to return her (doubtful, but who knows) We've seen two letters that I recall from Ramsay; the one to Asha, and the one to Jon announcing the wedding. Only Asha's included spiky writing and skin. The one to Jon was plain vanilla, with a spiky signature. As for the absence of signatures, it is likely that Ramsay is keeping some of the details secret from his guests at Winterfell. @divica addressed the other points quite adequately.
  12. Nevets

    The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter.

    This is one of the biggest problems I have with Stannis writing it. It makes the likelihood of his family leaving the Wall quite high. Either they leave for their own safety, or they leave because, with Jon leaving in disgrace, the remaining NW evicts them. This is unlikely to be in Stannis's interests. especially if he has taken Winterfell. If he hasn't he is probably sunk anyway. Jon could just as easily set up a defensive perimeter 50 miles or so out, or fortify CB. (While it's not designed to withstand an army, an expeditionary force might be another matter.) He could also send out parties to search for Arya. If he ships them off to Essos, it's going to be a lot longer than temporary; probably effectively permanent. And why mention Arya at all. If he thinks she is still at Winterfell, it makes him even more likely he will want to go there, instead of potentially spending time and resources looking for her. Not really. If Jon is in charge, they are a lot safer than if he isn't in charge. And, at worst, the Northerners are going to remain neutral. If it's a choice between Stannis or Bolton, it's pretty clear they would go with Stannis. No way will they join Bolton if there is any alternative available. We the readers would find out. Given that Stannis is not a POV somebody else would have to know. And as Doran Martell put it so nicely, "somebody always talks".
  13. For some reason this reminds me of the conversation between Lady Smallwood and Arya, when she asks Arya what she likes to do. "Needlework" "Very restful, isn't it?" "Not the way I do it." And later; "Do you work at it every day?" "I did, till I lost needle. My new one's not as good." Yep, Two very different things. So different they can have a conversation about it. I've a feeling Cersei would have a difficult time with either kind of needlework.
  14. Nevets

    Problematic aspects of Sansa`s education

    I'm not sure why they would need a sworn shield. They probably aren't going to go out that much, and KL, and especially the Red Keep, appear to be relatively safe places at this time in the story. If they need an armed escort, Jory or one of his men can easily be detailed to accompany them. Given that Jofrey is Crown Prince, he is more likely to be out in public, so having someone permanently detailed to his protection makes sense. For the Stark girls, not so much.
  15. Nevets

    Predicting the Future of Characters

    The ones I mentioned in my post mostly. I am mainly interested in the North, Riverlands, and the Starks.
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