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Springwatch

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  1. The point being that even sinister gods don't always demand a blood sacrifice. (I'm not going to start on whether the FM religion is evil, because that depends on the author - I mean, the gods may be sort of real, and death is a very essential part of life.) I think we're all fine with that. She'll have to square it with the Great Shepherd, but her stated justification is that the world has been saved from the Dothraki Stallion. I am interested in an evil Marwyn, just not really seeing it yet. I'm certain he has studied both blood magic and necromancy (he is professor of magic after all) - but that is scholarship, not necessarily practical. He's almost certainly studied dragonlore as well, and there's no practical for that.
  2. The many faced god is queer enough, and he takes sacrifices of all kinds. Deep down I'd rather Marwyn turned out to be evil than a saviour mentor figure for Dany, but this interpretation is not the only one, clever though it is - @StarksInTheNorth's version is more probable, I feel. The thing is, studying is not necessarily practising. MIrri learned blood magic, but chose instead to be a healer and priestess to the Great Shepherd, which all sounds good. Similarly, Marwyn has to study everything, because he has the Valyrian Steel mask and that's his department. Qyburn probably didn't learn much necromancy at the citadel because he would be instantly thrown out, if not put to death. I think what all three wanted to study was dissection of corpses to learn surgery, which it sounds like the Citadel doesn't like either. Interesting thought...
  3. I've been enjoying the thread too. I'm ultra-conventional on RLJ and Lyanna as KotLT - but I must admit a bit of heresy generates infinitely more ideas.
  4. um . . . what? Is this more from those blasted semi-canon sources? It's new to me.
  5. Right, so it must be something less than that. There is something less, because Varamyr never gets eaten by his snow bear, no matter where his conscious mind is. What Lyanna had - we don't know exactly - but gave the impression that horse and rider acted as one, earning the label centaur. And because she's a Stark, it also reminds me of Bran's wish to be a fighting knight, together with Hodor, which did sort of come true. Not quite! I want to agree - it all seems a bit dreamy to me. But as far as mass and muscle go - Loras is very lacking, and so was young Barristan. I'm going to say: if there were rings and a quintain at Winterfell, Lyanna would have used them a lot. But I also remember that he father wouldn't allow her to carry a sword, so there were limits.
  6. True. Two points though: first, there's nothing unexpected about Loras's victory - he's got talent, and if he's anything like his brother Garlan, he trains hard. Neither Howland nor Lyanna have that background, so we've got to suspect a bit of supernatural advantage. Second, he's trained his horse to move sideways in response to a leg signal - we see it before the tilt, written in strange way so we can't miss it: The boy from Highgarden did something with his legs, and his horse pranced sideways, nimble as a dancer. This must be the skilled riding that wins you tourneys (otherwise, if you'd asked me, the best thing for a tourney horse would be a stable, predictable platform, and the skill would be handling the lance).
  7. The wiki claims it's in the world of ice and fire - I've tried to track it down a few times with no success. I wonder if it's an error based on Daena, who is very similar in some ways. There must be something in this - if we're constantly being told jousting is mainly about being a skilled rider, then the horse must be shifted about to help land a blow, or avoid an attack. Loras does it, and he's the best, so it must be a good tactic.
  8. I like it - and Meera can breathe mud, which is pretty essential for Andersen's story. The flowers of the Neck are 'poison kisses' - more irritant than poison irrc. Mud is a cure, which could fit in somewhere later on, hopefully. Love reading your posts - thanks!
  9. @frenin - well, I think we've worked out we're just going to disagree on this one. One last reply though... Common sense and quotes are different. I'm not sure when you're quoting things. Ok, you've got your view, I've got mine. Then Robert's death triggered the war. The war was a war of sucession. Tyrion was free and participating in that war. Pycelle is better qualified to be a poisoner than LF. Yep. So Ned's got to be neutralised too, for example by the 'trap' described by Harwin and executed by Gregor. ETA Tywin will benefit from Ned not being regent, with all the power that comes with that. I think it does. It says Tyrion is part of House Lannister, and special because of it. But Tywin is very touchy about the respect due to House Lannister. Because of that business with his father being taken advantage of, and laughed at. That doesn't mean he'd brought out his armies for Tyrion - that would be a sledgehammer to crack a nut. I suggest Tywin was readying his armies to deal with any pushback from the Stark/Arryn/Tully aliance after both Robert and Ned were overthrown. That makes sense. Sometimes characters say stuff that's not true. Or not wholly true. What I'm trying to say is - the trap (war crimes followed by ambush) was designed for Ned. Gregor was given his instructions and left to get on with it. There wasn't much point in trying to recall him anyway. Because we know exactly how many troops Ned judged right for the job. A king's different. A king always has a large retinue - it's a prestige thing. Ned doesn't care about prestige. Has she been trying for a year? Not very hard anyway. But we know it's Cersei's role, because that's what's she's doing. And if it looked like she was going to run out of time, she'd have to reach for quicker, surer methods. Poison seems to work really well. Cat is notably pessimistic about warfare. Ok, problem for you then. Why is Tywin, the great strategist, marking random, counter-productive warfare in the Riverlands? And why does Harwin think there was a trap?
  10. We agree. But I don't recall all these things Cersei (and Tywin) say - is this show or are there quotes? We don't agree. Sounds unrealistic, and a recipe for disaster besides. Queen brood mare stuff, yeah. Babies and pretty dresses. But nothing serious - that's why she's so keen to break loose in Feast. He's head of family - like a mafia boss. Believe me he's interested. He has things he wants - like his grandson on the throne and the government controlled by Lannisters, not Starks. The way you describe it sounds like Tywin put his head in a bag and went to sleep until the catnapping. This is getting confusing - I thought we were talking about whether Cat's actions triggered the war. If the war doesn't start with Gregor's campaign, I would say absolutely not. Anyway - things make a lot more sense if Robert was expected to die (even if none of the arranged accidents work out, Pycelle can always arrange a fatal illness). Robert is sick/dying, Ned goes after the Mountain and is killed/captured, Joffrey is enthroned and Tywin takes power unopposed. Of course this is a very long range plan, set in motion weeks in advance of the expected outcome. Communications aren't great - raven and messenger. I guess the plan didn't work out as Tywin expected - Jaime hurt Ned, and Robert went after the white hart. Ned resigned and got reinstated. I don't think Tywin has the agility to react to all of this in real time. No doubt that's how Twyin feels, and it has the benefit of stoking up Tyrion's loyalty. But it's all bogus. Tywin anticipates a power struggle with Starks and their allies, that's all. It was set for Ned. Robert would have KG and more soldiers than even Gregor could handle. Beric and Thoros are too small to bother with. (ETA and we can't be sure of the timing I guess?) Agree, yeah! Tywin didn't foresee the hunt, so he'd need something else to keep Robert away - accident or poison, this is Cersei's field. I said it was risky. Even Hoster was brutal with rebels, iirc. Cat changed her cloak when she married Lord Stark. She can't gives orders exactly - only get them thinking who her father is, and what would please him.
  11. The Gold Cloaks are famously unreliable, and also open to bribery, which Cersei may need to counter with the gold of Casterly Rock. Courtesy of Tywin, of course. But the main problem would be if Ned is proclaimed Hand and regent - in which case the default position for the Golds is to obey him. The Reds are different; their loyalty is to House Lannister, but the chain of command does not stop with Cersei. That is unbelievable. Tywin is a good old-fashioned sexist patriarch, and he kept Cersei well away from anything to do with swords. Because of that, she lacks the competence to run the military side of things. She can give orders, but commanders know that ultimately they are serving Tywin and answer to him. We know how Tywin operates, because of his plotting with Sybelle, and Roose, and the Freys, to pull off the Red Wedding. He's deeply interested in strategy. He's one of the major players of the game of thrones. So it's not credible that he took his eye of the ball so completely that he doesn't even want reports from his commanders. And from Cersei. She's not going to hide her coup from Tywin; and she doesn't need to confess the twincest as her motive: Renly is trying to achieve exactly that, of course. Your splitting hairs here. It was Gregor's campaign that closely followed the catnapping, the rest is even more obviously to secure Joffrey's thone. Still, there was an ambush, and it is a trap that would attract Ned, because his principles demand the death penalty and that he personally swing the sword. Tywin set this trap, and being a deep planner, he had an objective in mind. Not a hostage swap, imho. We also know Tywin prefers to win victories cheaply, preferably with a letter instead of an army. In that case, he already has a preferred solution to retrieve Tyrion - Cersei puts pressure on Robert; Robert orders Ned to get Tyrion released. And it works, that's what happened. (The fact that Tyrion can't be found is equally an issue whether the Lannisters use persuasion or threats of violence). Gregor's campaign puts the 'cheap solution' at risk, because if/when Robert finds out, his sympathy will turn to rage. ETA: I don't think Tywin puts much value on Tyrion - as soon as he gets him back, he puts him in a disaster zone on the battlefield. The Riverlands have a paramount lord - when he calls his banners, they are bound to follow. Not doing so is very, very risky.
  12. A good point. There was also a reasonable chance of getting Tyrion to talk - like he says himself he just cannot keep his mouth shut, and as it happens, he was not guilty of Jon Arryn's murder or the catspaw attack - so probably resentful and willing to talk. Cat left it too late, and Lysa took it out of her hands.
  13. What? No! Cersei needs the red cloaks and the Hound for her coup. No way could they be persuaded to act for her and in secret from Tywin. Tywin is going to find out after all, and he is their paymaster. Therefore, Tywin knew about the coup in advance. War in the Riverlands does nothing to support Tyrion - it's even counter-productive because it angers the king, and the king is 100% supportive to the Lannisters on the Tyrion issue. The war is helpful to the coup, because it neutralises the river lords, the Starks natural allies. ETA 2 Another aim of the war was to get Ned out of KL. That's stated somewhere. iirc ETA @Mourning Star and @frenin, the above is relevant to your arguments also. There was going to be a war anyway, whether Tyrion was seized or not.
  14. Ned didn't go because LF gave him a lead on the twincest/Jon-Arryn-murder. That's the important issue. Varys said the queen had to act because the king was getting unruly. And it's true - Robert replaced his dead Hand with another one even more fixated on justice. Joffrey's succession was not safe - that's why there was a war. Anything else is a side effect, not a cause.
  15. We don't know that. I mean, how many data points do we have, like about two? Every other seer, from every school of magic, has to work through plenty of ambiguous junk visions. Occasionally there are clear ones too, e.g. the vision of Riverrun surrounded by flames in the shape of lions. But usually not. Yes. We don't know what R'hllor actually is - but if we're going to discuss him at all, we might as well use the model of an actual god, because that's 'his' current function in the story. 'He' answers prayers for specific visions, for example. Sure, R'hllor almost certainly isn't a 'real' god, but he gives the appearance of one, and certain people have the appearance of being favoured by the god - the ability to do fire magic, or see visions. That includes Moqorro. He's no different to the rest. We can't assume that Mel and Thoros are mere puppets, but Moqorro is a powerful free agent - where would that assumption come from? Because he's a proper manly man? ETA: I think Moqorro appeals to our unconscious biases, not so much sexism, but he projects his image as an authority figure, only showing complete confidence, unlike the other two.
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