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Springwatch

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  1. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Maybe, maybe not. I think he had an idea that Sansa, sweet and gentle and anxious, would make a very good impression on Robert. Robert's sentimental side is as extreme as all the rest of him, as shown by his obsessive romancing over Lyanna's memory. And of course Sansa's story matched Arya's - else Ned would never have called her.
  2. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Nope, don't see it. I think she wanted to stay on her own.
  3. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    That didn't occur to me. Why do you think so?
  4. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    She has Red Cloaks too. Lannister men. I assume these are the guys who attacked the Tower of the Hand. The Hound was with them.
  5. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Why would she then mention to Tyrion the letter Ned wrote to Stannis? At the time, Cersei was insisting that Stannis was lying about the incest, that his motive was ambition to become king, and that Ned was his co-conspirater.
  6. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    I most definitely mean the World of Westeros. Thanks to everyone who queried this; I will amend the post. It's an assumption of mine, that's all. But I really think it could and should be true. 'Traitor blood' is a common enough term; the Small Council use it freely and without prompting. The idea is that treachery is inherited - Sansa is the daughter of a traitor, and therefore naturally a traitor herself. I think Joffrey uses the idea of traitor blood as an excuse for beating her. From a Lannister POV, it's a good thing that Sansa is seen as dangerously flawed. She is so very young, and beautiful, and her life so tragic that there is a serious risk of her attracting defenders of her own. So make that politically hazardous. On the other hand, if Sansa's natural treachery is directed at her own family, that means her continued engagement to Joffrey still (but only just) makes sense.
  7. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    What I tried to say a bit earlier. Sansa being a traitor is a delicious narrative. And in the eyes of the world of asoiaf, it kind of justifies the savage treatment she gets at the hands of the Lannisters.
  8. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    That's where we disagree. Robert was at point of death, and Cersei already knew she had to react first. LF had given her all the information she needed, and the Gold Cloaks had been given their orders (can't be done fast, therefore Gold Cloaks were already bribed, briefed, and standing by ready for action). Hostages may be useful later, but would make no difference to the race to the Iron Throne, make no difference to the race being a close thing.
  9. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Your experience is probably better than mine, but I'd say knowing someone really well, so you have a good model of their mind, is a long step towards empathy. Doesn't make you a good person, of course.
  10. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Thanks for the quote. It's an important point for me also - but I come at the books from a high fantasy viewpoint, so I probably have less expectation that characters will act in a strictly realistic way. I have had a go at the facts however: Ok, the case for Sansa making no difference to the success of the coup. She didn't know anything about 'her father's plans'. Consistently we are shown that Ned does not have deep conversations with Sansa, that he does not explain his actions, that he wants her kept away from important man-stuff like king's justice and court hearings. Therefore, we can take as a fact that he didn't share his plans to make Stannis king. Didn't share his secret meetings with Renly and Littlefinger and Cersei. Didn't share the orders to his soldiers. Anything. Cersei has complete information already. The walls of the Red Keep have ears, and she has her own spies. And there is no sign that Ned and his household have learned much about information security (apart from protecting Sansa's innocence, which is an irony). There will be leaks. Plus information Cersei was given as a gift. Ned straight out told her that he was going to expose and banish Joffrey - on its own, that's enough information to trigger a coup against his regency. The rest of his planning was with Littlefinger, who took it straight away to Cersei. And then there's Varys, who says straight out that he is a weak man who must back the winning side. So - Renly and Littlefinger both correctly judged that Ned was dancing on thin ice, there's no reason Varys would think differently, and in hindsight, he did not give Ned the support he might have. Therefore, Varys was also on Cersei's side; that's game over in the information wars. There was no time. Once Robert dies, Ned and Cersei are in a race to Iron Throne. If Cersei doesn't act immediately, Ned will be made regent. It will be him in the seat of power, accusing her of treason, instead of the other way about. The people, soldiers and kingsguard may agree with him. The Gold Cloaks may just pocket their bribes and not fight for Cersei. She has to act immediately. There was just one hour between the Stark breakfast and Robert's death. Sansa has to first brush her hair (of course) and gain an audience with Cersei. And then pour her heart out, about how much she loves Joffrey, and what a good queen she'd make, and children proud as lions etc etc. That leaves Cersei somewhere between half an hour and ten minutes to pick out crucial new information and act on it. So what was it, this crucial new information? Information that aided Cersei in her race to the top (it was a close thing)? I tell you, it doesn't exist. Part 2: the case for Sansa making no difference to the girls' escape.... (work in progress)
  11. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Horses are used in therapy sometimes; some people do find they can practise empathy by working with horses (I remember a scheme with schoolchildren working with free running horses in a ring. Seemed very successful). But I agree the very best riders go way beyond that. Arya is a natural rider like Lyanna and Brandon (funny that it goes with wolf blood). Sansa is no centaur, but don't be fooled, she rides to a very high standard. She can keep pace with wild riders like Joffrey, and skilled riders like Margaery - all on high-bred horses going at full speed across country. And for the procession, Sansa is allocated a courser, a powerful hunting horse capable of carrying the Hound. She's good. Does she want to ride, that's the question.
  12. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    As far as Cersei's and Tyrion's thoughts go, I remember it that way too. But there's no real support for that version of events in the actual facts we're given. (I'll have a go at showing that, later.) Tyrion I expect only knows what Cersei told him. And Cersei is a very instinctive and profound liar - Tyrion says that she is never so naturally outraged as when the accusation against her is in fact true. I think it's part of the bigger truth/lies theme; it's an example of how facts get twisted into a narrative which becomes the new 'truth'. Sansa as the great betrayer of her family is a much more powerful narrative than Sansa who didn't make any difference. It's the same as Littlefinger's insight that Shireen being the bastard daughter of Patchface is a more powerful narrative than Shireen just being the daughter of Stannis. I suggest both Cersei and Tyrion find it easy and pleasant to believe Sansa shares responsibility for her father's tragedy. Much sweeter to think of Sansa's sins than their own.
  13. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Yes. Absolutely. And you can believe it too, because her decisions here are literally no-brainers. Every noble child is a valuable pawn - Tywin didn't want to foster Sweetrobin out the goodness of his heart, you know. And that was peacetime - in times of conflict, children are used like bargaining chips; we see again and again how valuable they are. So securing the hostages isn't something clever and original Cersei has to think up herself. It's normal. Everyone does it. Even Ned Stark does it. Knowledge isn't a problem either. Ned already told her about his plans to dethrone Joffrey. And she doesn't wait for the girls to try any escape plans, she goes in straight away to pick them up. Nothing Sansa said made any difference.
  14. Springwatch

    Sansa's betrayal consequences partly overestimated?

    Not possible. The times are all wrong. The Wind Witch was going to leave on the evening tide, and Robert died just one hour after Sansa walked out of the Stark breakfast. It's not possible that the Stark girls could have been overlooked for all that time. And in fact the Kingsguard came to snatch Arya from her fencing lesson, not from the Wind Witch. Cersei had no time to change her plans, and didn't need to.
  15. Springwatch

    The Baratheons Reanalyzed- Copper, Iron, and True Steel

    You make some good points, but just taking the quote literally also works well, and it's simple. Swapping metals round could be done, but it's an extra layer we don't need (even Stannis fans). Iron's pretty good, anyway, as it is. The Iron Throne is iron (even though it's actually steel). No-one is tougher than the Ironborn. The crown of winter is bronze and iron, strong against the cold. And iron is always black, which has its own really powerful associations (Targs, Balerion, Black Watch etc). Iron is an excellent thing to be. ETA I looked up Luwin's metals quote to see if it helped: Not a lot of help, apart from the bolded.
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