Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

On revision this is pretty dumb on both their ends. For Jon, getting a second opinion from a magical prophet on who your enemies are can't hurt, and for Mel, if I was so keen to help someone survive I wouldn't have my warning be so easily brushed off.

Hehe, yeah... But there's  another thing worth noting here, Mel never says "I know their names", or "I know who they are", or anything along those lines. She asks Jon if he'd like to know their names, which could mean that, if he answers "yes" she'll search for their names/identities in her fires or whatever. 

[bemused]

I wanted to add this to my last post , but my fingers were giving out. Regarding Mance and the glamour :

Mance doesn't need to wear the bone shirt for the glamour to be in effect. When we meet him in Mel's chamber, he isn't wearing it, only the ruby cuff - yet he still has Rattleshirt's appearance. Mel tells him that the bones will help make it stronger. (After all, at CB there are people who knew both Mance and the Lord o' Bones). So all he has to do is wear the ruby on his person and he will take on the guise of Rattleshirt. Of course he has it with him.(n.b., it doesn't glow at all times) He needed to wear it to exit CB.

As for the remaining spearwives, the aptly named Squirrel had planned to climb down the wall from Ramsay's chamber and dodge into the Godswood  ... and we know that Wex remained hidden there for days. .. I'm convinced that the tall, grey haired Myrtle is a male clan member, probably the Liddle (who told Bran & co of dreaming his old mother was alive again) , an idea first put forth here by redriver, Holly is dead, Frenya does have a spear to fall on at worst.... Rowan is probably an Umber ( but I think, because of her manner of speaking and age) probably not  Mors' stolen daughteror his grandaughter, but one of the Greatjon's daughters mentioned by Jon. That leaves Willow... Since Mance apparently had the collusion of northmen to get into WF, I wouldn't rule out that she would have some help either. It's quite possible, at the outside, that the Boltons hold none of Mance's party captive ... Though it would seem that Mance and the spearwives must all have been taken - to anyone outside WF, who does not have the benefit of the various hints and suggestions known to readers (e.g. Theon or Stannis). I'm far too suspicious to make any such assumption.

On 12/28/2016 at 4:47 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

I am not so sure about that. I have no textual evidence at hand, I admit. But he visited the stores and he included the collection of all wealth of the Wildlings in his contract with Tormund. Bowen Marsh is in charge of collecting and listing all these goods. I can very well imagine that Jon told Bowen Marsh about why he wanted all goods from the Wildlings.

 

On 12/28/2016 at 4:29 AM, Lord Varys said:

..<snip>...

We know from Rykker that he and Thorne were sent to the Wall by Lord Tywin. That doesn't mean that Thorne doesn't also see the Starks as a traitorous lot due to their involvement in the Rebellion. But I doubt he actually blames Ned for being at the Wall when the man had nothing to do with that.

..<snip>..

This is a non-issue because Jon never told his Lord Steward and his other brothers about that deal nor has it been finalized yet. That's dependent on Tycho Nestoris making it back alive from the village, continuing the deal in the wake of Jon's assassination, and of him reaching Braavos alive.

..<snip>..

. Theon showed Lady Barbrey where they are, and then she and her men reopened them. Do you think nobody in the crowded castle of Winterfell saw that happening?

..<snip>

I don't deny that Marsh isn't necessarily the most imaginative guy at the Wall. But we don't know enough about him to properly assess his intelligence or his capabilities. We don't know him all that well. 

Thorne and Slynt convinced him that their cause is the right cause but back then there was no alternative, wasn't there? Jon Snow wasn't even on the table when they made their plans. And now - who is there to push his buttons?

I agree there. But I see no reason to believe Marsh needed to be manipulated by Thorne or anybody else, really, to come to the conclusion that Jon had to go.

..<snip>...

If Jon happened to become surrounded by a crowd of Bowen's men - say, 10-20 men - some of them doing the butchering the others blocking the view, the actual deed could be easily enough be obscured.

Yeah, well, it is pretty closely modeled on Caesar's murder, and that one certainly can be seen as an execution of sorts.

The idea that Jon and an army of undisciplined wildlings could waylay a Bolton army makes no sense to me. Especially not since it is quite clear that neither Jon nor Tormund actually take the Pink Letter at face value. Jon has first to find out what actually happened at Winterfell and for that he has to go there. Vice versa, Roose and Ramsay wouldn't march up to the Wall without sending up scouts and even envoys up to the Wall to check for traps and inquire whether Jon is meeting the demands in the Pink Letter.

 

On 12/28/2016 at 5:55 AM, Lord Varys said:

Considering that the NW has pretty much nothing to offer to the Iron Bank (which is a bank, not the government of Braavos) while the Iron Bank has little to gain from a contract with the NW I find that hard to believe.

Tycho was sent to Stannis, and if Stannis had been in Dorne, Pentos, or Lys they would have gone there, not to the Wall.

 

On 12/28/2016 at 6:16 AM, rotting sea cow said:

The warning of the "smiling conspirators" comes from Mel, we need to look among them to find who they are. Clydas is a suspect because holds a key role and as you pointed out he already sent important letters without LC approval. If he is under threat, why doesn't he go to Jon and to denounce them?

As I said, I'm certain that Clydas read the letter and strongly suspect that it was edited. I agree what you said about Alliser, who might be hiding.  And indeed, there was a lot going on at CB at that time. 

My suspicion about Marsh having tried to hold the mutiny is based on:

1) He is honest with Jon about his disappointment regarding decisions concerning  the NW.

2) Mel mentions that the 'smiling ones'  are the danger

3) Best timing for a mutiny is between Stannis leaves and Wildings come. Doing after the later passed the Wall is a huge risk. Pretty certain that CB is a big mess right now.

4) Marsh does the deed himself, in tears!

5) The Pink Letter reading is beyond a blunder. Jon is confessing interfering in the realm using enemies of the realm (wildings) for personal goals and he is confessing that the NW did not only help a rebel, but worse the losing side and he is confessing using sorcery. Any member of the NW would have understood that at face value, the facts contained in the letter gives grounds to the warden of the North to intervene the NW.

Notice, I never said that Marsh is innocent. He must have known about the plotting and didn't inform the LC. But he was unconvinced that Jon was truly a traitor until the Pink letter reading.

Well one thing touches another, so I'm replying to these more or less together.. As to Tycho, the Iron Bank and Jon not telling Bowen... I wrote quite an extensive thread about this ...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/136987-tycho-nestoris-the-man-and-his-mission/#comment-7428470

It's a long read, so I'll just cover some of the conclusions . I think Jon, as LC of the NW, is the bigger deal for the Iron Bank, not Stannis. GRRM has been keeping plenty of secrets about the "city of secrets" and I think the Iron bank is part of the governing body of Braavos (a hidden triumverate). Even if Braavos has no historical record or prophecy of it's own regarding winters or a long night (seems unlikely), it has the information from the slavers and captives on the seized slave ship. The man trying to hold back the forces of extermination is probably more important to them than a squabble over a throne. I think there are clear indications of this in the text. Survival trumps unpaid debts.(And Jon, personally made a good impression)

Jon didn't tell Bowen about the deal ... but Bowen would have to be even more monumentally stupid than I think he is, if he couldn't put two and two together. He said himself that it would be best to buy food and ship it in, if only they had the gold. Later, Jon says that they will do that very thing .. after he's known to have been closeted with Tycho for two hours.. Jon and Tycho were in public when they agreed to have the discussion and were seen together publicly afterward on friendly terms. To top it off, Jon left his copy of the contract on the table in his quarters while he and Tycho dined together. We know Bowen has at least one agent among Jon's guards, and for that matter, we don't know where Bowen himself was during the time Jon and Tycho were in the dining hall.

The fact that no transactions can actually take place until Tycho returns to Braavos is one good reason for Jon not to broadcast it, while Tycho is travelling into danger to see Stannis.

Bowen and Thorne.. Whether Bowen needs to have his buttons pushed is of no matter, because we see Thorne does push his buttons, at the very least, from the time Bowen returns from the ST until Thorne's departure on the ranging.

I believe there are signs that Thorne has made his way back to CB (I'll come to that), and I believe he has read and altered the pink letter - no matter who wrote to Jon originally.

I agree that the assassination closely resembles that of Julius Caesar... more closely than some realise. I think Thorne stands in for Cassius, who manipulated the other conspirators ... even using forged letters. In this case, the forged letter went to Jon. 

(I had to put this post on hold yesterday, and in the meantime, sweetsunray, The Fattest Leech and Lord Varys and more have posted so I'm just going to fold my replies to their points in, generally.)

Like some others, I think Thorne's animosity stretches to all Starks, but the initial cause hasn't yet been revealed. We don't know how he came to be on the battlements at KL; we don't know if he was in Mad Aerys' retinue at Harrenhall ; we do know that if Ned had arrived at KL before Tywin, Thorne and Rykker would likely have been allowed to bend the knee rather than have to choose between death and the wall. ... His animosity can't stem from being a staunch Targaryen supporter, otherwise, he would have been more respectful of, and closer to Maester Aemon. ... Whatever the reason, there's no denying that he takes real satisfaction in calling Ned a traitor and trying to paint Benjen as one.

I've said he can be seen as the Cassius figure in the "Ides of Marsh", but he also sometimes puts me in mind of Iago from Othello. Certainly, because he seems to enjoy causing trouble, period ...(Iago's evil for evil's sake)... but Iago also hated Othello because he passed Iago over for promotion, and it was rumoured that "the Moor" had slept with his wife. Iago didn't know, or care if the rumours were true or not, he just decided to take revenge as if they were. (Attached to Aerys' court, was Thorne another young man smitten with Ashara Dayne? Would he harbour a grudge for Brandon, or Ned, or even Lyanna?) We can't know until more of his backstory is revealed.

Cassius dislikes Caesar personally and as a republican, for political reasons ... but Thorne never refers to any political leanings of his own.

Among other things, Cliff Notes has this to say about Cassius...

The most significant characteristic of Cassius is his ability to perceive the true motives of men. Caesar says of him, "He reads much; / He is a great observer and he looks / Quite through the deeds of men." The great irony surrounding Cassius throughout the play is that he nullifies his greatest asset when he allows Brutus to take effective control of the republican faction

... I think Thorne shares Cassius' ability, because of the way he knows which nicknames and forms of mockery will stir up the most dissention among the recruits, and shown in this excerpt from the lead up to the suicide mission...

“He asked for an envoy, we are sending one,” said Slynt. “If you are too craven to face this turncloak king, we can return you to your ice cell. This time without the furs, I think. Yes.” 
“No need for that, my lord,” said Ser Alliser. “Lord Snow will do as we ask. He wants to show us that he is no turncloak. He wants to prove himself a loyal man of the Night’s Watch.” 
Thorne was much the more clever of the two, Jon realized; this had his stink all over it. He was trapped. “I’ll go,” he said in a clipped, curt voice

When it's revealed that the mission is to kill Mance... I don't know how anyone can continue to think Thorne has any regard for the NW and it's men. Don't tell me he couldn't have persuaded Slynt to engage in a real parlay (if, in fact, he didn't discourage it). Stannis' intervention was undreamed of and the reader, as well as Jon, knew that Mance was right about the imminent defeat of the NW. Can we imagine that a man of Thorne's experience couldn't see it? They might all die,if it came to another attack by Mance, but it was more important to Thorne that he have the personal satisfaction of orchestrating Jon's death.

Later he says .... “Aye. I have squandered a third of my life trying to teach the rudiments of swordplay to churls, muttonheads, and knaves. Small good that will do me in those woods.”

We know that from the get-go, he was only teaching the rudiments. Why did he never move on to the finer points? Why did he never teach his charges the defensive moves that even fourteen year old Jon could show them? This is not ennui from 15+ years of struggling with hopeless material. It seems he always had that contempt. His divisiveness made him unsuited to be sent ranging. Arms master was all Mormont could think to do with him, and presumably the same can be said for Qorgyle, because Thorne has never been ranging, though he's been at the wall since probably five years before Benjen.

Here's how I think the plot developed ... we have to work backwards and forwards since the clues don't come up in orderly fashion. We know that Thorne's attitude toward Jon was lethal from the outset.. If Mormont had not sent him away ,Thorne may well have goaded Jon into a situation that would have cost Jon his life.

When Thorne returns to CB from Eastwatch with Slynt we see Thorne lead / push Slynt to ordering Jon's execution. When that attempt is thwarted by Aemon, it's Thorne who comes up with the suicide mission. That, in turn, is thwarted by Stannis.

From this point, it's now abundantly clear that Thorne is determined to engineer Jon's death ...preferably executed as a traitor by the NW, but executed as a traitor by wildlings would serve.

Looking ahead to when Jon sends Thorne out, Thorne accuses Jon of planning to have him killed on the ranging. It's what Thorne would have done in Jon's place.

And I think there are some signs that this is the embryo of a plan to kill Jon on the Hardhome mission.

I don't know what has happened to Dywen (of whom I'm very fond) and the other ranger, but I'm sure Thorne is back - most likely through the Black Gate. Bowen will have been to the Nightfort at least to assess it's readiness. Thorne wouldn't have had a lot of time for long term plotting, but he would have had time to arrange that Bowen or one of his men should watch for him there. The stewards would be back and forth between the two castles regularly with waynloads of supplies for the builders and furnishings.. Bowen knows the wormways like the back of his hand and since Sam 1 AFfC we know there's a hidden little cell suitable for sleeping in down in the book vaults ... There's even a comparison that can be made relating to the idea of Thorne hiding, later, when we know he's missing (the first and last place anyone would look for him).

Bowen shows signs of being prompted, off-page. He's like a spin doctor - he spits out his talking points, but when Jon tries to discuss in depth, or reason with him, he can make no reply..

The thing that makes me so sure that these dots connect is that the pink letter sounds more like Thorne than anyone else .. and particularly the clue about the little cell has no relation to Sam's continuing storyline. He never uses it. He leaves for Oldtown immediately. No-one seems to have been down to the book vaults since, and Sam has told no-one about it ... yet it's too specific to simply be there for colour. I think GRRM has left a very clear path open to get Thorne back from the wild to CB.

No doubt the plan was to kill him on the ranging and blame the wildlings (Thorne would know Jon would go himself). Of course going beyond the wall would be a danger for the assassin(s) too... Then "_" sends Jon a letter, signed "Ramsay". It contains news of Stannis, Mance and Ramsay's bride and his Reek. I believe the letter undergoes some changes.. Now it goads Jon to "come to WF" , etc. The conspirators would assume Jon would go and take men of the NW. He can still be killed, blaming wildlings or Boltons (and maybe Boltons will really do it). The upside is the assassins won't have to go north of the wall. When Jon is dead they get to rid themselves of Selyse & co, seal the gates and settle in . But Jon thwarts them by proposing to only take wildlings.... and Bowen, predictably, panics and acts , possibly without waiting to consult Thorne.

Something along those lines.

And,back to those other points, Yes. I do think Jon's wildlings have a good chance of taking Ramsay en route. They are not totally undisciplined any more. Remember Ghost saw them going through manouvres.. Stannis' attack was totally unexpected. Now they would be the surprise - fighting the kind of battle they know how to fight, but now with some discipline. And I don't think Ramsay will have a very large army with him probably not more than Jon. They have to move swiftly through heavy snow after a quarry with a head start. I do think he would have been pretty close on the tail of the men fighting Stannis. The Boltons need the girl back right away (and Rams wants them both). I doubt Roose would want to send out any more of his men than absolutely necessary. Even if they beat Stannis, it will take them at least 3 days to get back.

Jon doesn't confess to anything in reading the letter.. He reads out a bunch of accusations made by someone else .. and says he's going to make Ramsay answer for a personal threat... he feels he's doing the right thing (as kissdbyfire points out) and lets them all draw their own conclusions.

[rotting sea cow]

@bemused Thanks for your lengthly reply. Interesting thoughts!

[Greywater-Watch]

2 hours ago, bemused said:

I think Jon, as LC of the NW, is the bigger deal for the Iron Bank, not Stannis.

What I like in your approach is to shed a different light on this deal. Many people think it was only the deal with Stannis that counted for the Iron Bank. I would though not go so far to the other extrem as you do. In case of a doubt I tend to share the importance between the two deals as being 50% to 50%.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon didn't tell Bowen about the deal ... but Bowen would have to be even more monumentally stupid than I think he is, if he couldn't put two and two together.

Good remark, I neglected that view. It was not even necessary for Jon to talk with Bowen Marsh after his deal with Tycho Nestoris, it is obvious what Jon had planned.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Yes. I do think Jon's wildlings have a good chance of taking Ramsay en route.

Also a good observation to counter the often found view that the Wildlings together with Jon would be a neglectable military force. Already within Stannis army the Northmen from the hills have proven their superior value as soldiers knowing to march in the rough weather conditions of the North. In addition we have some observations by Theon from Winterfell how the Northmen there fare better than the Freys.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon doesn't confess to anything in reading the letter.. He reads out a bunch of accusations made by someone else .. and says he's going to make Ramsay answer for a personal threat... he feels he's doing the right thing (as kissdbyfire points out) and lets them all draw their own conclusions.

Thanks for this view, backing my doubts that Jon's decision was utter treason. Even in the view of the Night Watch men: Their Lord Commander receives a personal threat in quite an official way (by a letter). It is not evident at all to me that in the mind of the men of the NW the right reaction should be to stay at CB and do nothing.

[kissdbyfire]

@bemused, great post, and great to have you back!

I need to PM you about Mully, and will do so when I have a day off - don't even know when that will be, so...

 

[Lord Varys]

23 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

you must be joking? You couldn't tell from someone yelling to kill Catelyn and then a knife sliding across her throat that she as killed, as she just did to Jingebell???

• "Mad," someone said, "she's lost her wits," and someone else said, "Make an end," and a hand grabbed her scalp just as she'd done with Jinglebell, and she thought, No, don't, don't cut my hair, Ned loves my hair. Then the steel was at her throat, and its bite was red and cold." >end scene<

No, I'm not joking. We only know that Catelyn when Arya saw her corpse through Nymeria's eyes. Anything else was just hearsay. Walder could have lied in his letter, and the rumors about her being thrown in the river could have been just that - just rumors. Sansa also didn't transform herself into a winged wolf and fly away after she had murdered Joffrey.

There are people arguing that Jon's wounds weren't fatal, that he was only stabbed four times, that the assassins didn't continue their work because other people showed up to save him immediately after he blacked out, etc.

How is this different from the possibility that the slash at Cat's throat wasn't fatal, that Walder changed his mind immediately after the chapters, handing her over to maesters and septons with healing hands who nursed her back to health?

The only difference is that Cat's death and later resurrection are covered in ASoS later on while Jon's death is a cliffhanger ending his story in ADwD.

If Cat's death had been a cliffhanger then you could easily enough find people making (as ridiculous) arguments insisting that she might not be dead after all. Just as people are now doing with Jon Snow. If you read those two POV death scenes you realize that they are not that different.

22 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

On revision this is pretty dumb on both their ends. For Jon, getting a second opinion from a magical prophet on who your enemies are can't hurt, and for Mel, if I was so keen to help someone survive I wouldn't have my warning be so easily brushed off.

Jon basically just ignored her, and Mel clearly doesn't have any names. She only tries to gain his trust when she gives him the first warning. The idea there is that she would most likely warn Jon about people she mistrusts/considers to be dangers to her plans rather than actually telling him who was intending to kill him. Had she known that, she would have told him and possibly even tried to take those men out.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Mance doesn't need to wear the bone shirt for the glamour to be in effect. When we meet him in Mel's chamber, he isn't wearing it, only the ruby cuff - yet he still has Rattleshirt's appearance. Mel tells him that the bones will help make it stronger. (After all, at CB there are people who knew both Mance and the Lord o' Bones). So all he has to do is wear the ruby on his person and he will take on the guise of Rattleshirt. Of course he has it with him.(n.b., it doesn't glow at all times) He needed to wear it to exit CB.

That is an interesting (and very good) point. I'm now more inclined to believe that Mance actually has the glamor with him and might have used it in Winterfell to evade capture.

The only problematic thing I still see there is that it seems that you have to wear a glamor openly - Plumm-Bloodraven, Melisandre, and Rattleshirt-Mance all do it. If that's true then some dude nobody knows wearing a rather costly cuff with a glowing ruby certainly is going to get a lot of attention.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

As for the remaining spearwives, the aptly named Squirrel had planned to climb down the wall from Ramsay's chamber and dodge into the Godswood  ... and we know that Wex remained hidden there for days. .. I'm convinced that the tall, grey haired Myrtle is a male clan member, probably the Liddle (who told Bran & co of dreaming his old mother was alive again) , an idea first put forth here by redriver, Holly is dead, Frenya does have a spear to fall on at worst.... Rowan is probably an Umber ( but I think, because of her manner of speaking and age) probably not  Mors' stolen daughteror his grandaughter, but one of the Greatjon's daughters mentioned by Jon. That leaves Willow... Since Mance apparently had the collusion of northmen to get into WF, I wouldn't rule out that she would have some help either. It's quite possible, at the outside, that the Boltons hold none of Mance's party captive ... Though it would seem that Mance and the spearwives must all have been taken - to anyone outside WF, who does not have the benefit of the various hints and suggestions known to readers (e.g. Theon or Stannis). I'm far too suspicious to make any such assumption.

That is all just baseless speculation. There is no reason to assume the spearwives are special people pretending to be somebody different.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Well one thing touches another, so I'm replying to these more or less together.. As to Tycho, the Iron Bank and Jon not telling Bowen... I wrote quite an extensive thread about this ...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/136987-tycho-nestoris-the-man-and-his-mission/#comment-7428470

It's a long read, so I'll just cover some of the conclusions . I think Jon, as LC of the NW, is the bigger deal for the Iron Bank, not Stannis. GRRM has been keeping plenty of secrets about the "city of secrets" and I think the Iron bank is part of the governing body of Braavos (a hidden triumverate). Even if Braavos has no historical record or prophecy of it's own regarding winters or a long night (seems unlikely), it has the information from the slavers and captives on the seized slave ship. The man trying to hold back the forces of extermination is probably more important to them than a squabble over a throne. I think there are clear indications of this in the text. Survival trumps unpaid debts.(And Jon, personally made a good impression).

That doesn't make any sense. If the Iron Bank were there to talk to the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch Tycho would have asked to talk to Jon first and then to Stannis. But he did nothing of this sort. It is Jon's idea to try to strike a deal with him. Tycho shows no initiative in that regard.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon didn't tell Bowen about the deal ... but Bowen would have to be even more monumentally stupid than I think he is, if he couldn't put two and two together. He said himself that it would be best to buy food and ship it in, if only they had the gold. Later, Jon says that they will do that very thing .. after he's known to have been closeted with Tycho for two hours.. Jon and Tycho were in public when they agreed to have the discussion and were seen together publicly afterward on friendly terms. To top it off, Jon left his copy of the contract on the table in his quarters while he and Tycho dined together. We know Bowen has at least one agent among Jon's guards, and for that matter, we don't know where Bowen himself was during the time Jon and Tycho were in the dining hall.

The fact that no transactions can actually take place until Tycho returns to Braavos is one good reason for Jon not to broadcast it, while Tycho is travelling into danger to see Stannis.

Even if Bowen knew about the deal - and I'm not sure he did since we have no confirmation of that - he could easily enough thought that deal died with Stannis as the Pink Letter suggested. He could have believed Tycho never reached Stannis or died with him, and that would put an end to any agreement the NW had with the Iron Bank.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Bowen and Thorne.. Whether Bowen needs to have his buttons pushed is of no matter, because we see Thorne does push his buttons, at the very least, from the time Bowen returns from the ST until Thorne's departure on the ranging.

Still, there is no reason to believe Thorne and Marsh had the same goals later on. The election of the Lord Commander isn't the same as assassinating the Lord Commander.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

I believe there are signs that Thorne has made his way back to CB (I'll come to that), and I believe he has read and altered the pink letter - no matter who wrote to Jon originally.

I don't think there is any reason to believe that. Clydas reading the letter in advance? Perhaps. But anybody at CB actually messing with the content of the letter makes little sense. Especially not Thorne. Jon's little show with the wildlings endangered the NW and everybody at the Wall. I see no reason why any member of the NW conspiring against Jon would want to do something like that.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

I agree that the assassination closely resembles that of Julius Caesar... more closely than some realise. I think Thorne stands in for Cassius, who manipulated the other conspirators ... even using forged letters. In this case, the forged letter went to Jon. 

 

Well, Cassius actually was one of the assassins. And as far as we know Thorne wasn't one of the assassins. Why not reveal both Marsh and Thorne as one of the assassins in ADwD? Could have been done easily enough.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Like some others, I think Thorne's animosity stretches to all Starks, but the initial cause hasn't yet been revealed. We don't know how he came to be on the battlements at KL; we don't know if he was in Mad Aerys' retinue at Harrenhall ; we do know that if Ned had arrived at KL before Tywin, Thorne and Rykker would likely have been allowed to bend the knee rather than have to choose between death and the wall. ... His animosity can't stem from being a staunch Targaryen supporter, otherwise, he would have been more respectful of, and closer to Maester Aemon. ... Whatever the reason, there's no denying that he takes real satisfaction in calling Ned a traitor and trying to paint Benjen as one.

Thorne being a Targaryen loyalist doesn't make him close to Aemon by default. If Aemon just disliked that man he would have made it crystal clear that he didn't enjoyed his company and that would have been the end of that. Not every Targaryen loyalist has to like every Targaryen prince (hello there, Aerion).

15 hours ago, bemused said:

I've said he can be seen as the Cassius figure in the "Ides of Marsh", but he also sometimes puts me in mind of Iago from Othello. Certainly, because he seems to enjoy causing trouble, period ...(Iago's evil for evil's sake)... but Iago also hated Othello because he passed Iago over for promotion, and it was rumoured that "the Moor" had slept with his wife. Iago didn't know, or care if the rumours were true or not, he just decided to take revenge as if they were. (Attached to Aerys' court, was Thorne another young man smitten with Ashara Dayne? Would he harbour a grudge for Brandon, or Ned, or even Lyanna?) We can't know until more of his backstory is revealed.

I very much doubt that Thorne is a character important enough for that kind of backstory. The Thornes are no prominent or powerful house, and Alliser is unlikely to have held a powerful position at court.

15 hours ago, bemused said:

Cassius dislikes Caesar personally and as a republican, for political reasons ... but Thorne never refers to any political leanings of his own.

 

Which is pretty good reason to assume his political views aside from him not liking the idea of turning on his king aren't important.

[The Fattest Leech]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, I'm not joking. We only know that Catelyn when Arya saw her corpse through Nymeria's eyes. Anything else was just hearsay. Walder could have lied in his letter, and the rumors about her being thrown in the river could have been just that - just rumors. Sansa also didn't transform herself into a winged wolf and fly away after she had murdered Joffrey.

There are people arguing that Jon's wounds weren't fatal, that he was only stabbed four times, that the assassins didn't continue their work because other people showed up to save him immediately after he blacked out, etc.

How is this different from the possibility that the slash at Cat's throat wasn't fatal, that Walder changed his mind immediately after the chapters, handing her over to maesters and septons with healing hands who nursed her back to health?

 

Because what you said was, "Catelyn was also only wounded until we knew that they had thrown her corpse into the river." She was not wounded because as the quote sets up, in Cat's words, she killed Jinglebell by slicing his throat and that was about to happen to her. It would have been more of a surprise if Cat had lived after that... and actually, it was a surprise in the un-dead form of Lady Stoneheart.

Jon's death is foreshadowed and set up by the three other males closest to him, and all play out almost exactly to the smallest detail what happened, and one even what will most likely happen after.

Jon's death and Catelyn's death are not the same.

 

[bemused]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The only problematic thing I still see there is that it seems that you have to wear a glamor openly - Plumm-Bloodraven, Melisandre, and Rattleshirt-Mance all do it. If that's true then some dude nobody knows wearing a rather costly cuff with a glowing ruby certainly is going to get a lot of attention

I'm not too sure about that perhaps a long,loose sleeved tunic that only showed it some of the time would work... But if not, the ruby doesn't glow or pulse at all times, and with the amount of looting of corpses that has gone on, I'm not sure it would be thought to be that far out of the ordinary. Rattleshirt was a smaller man and very homely. I don't think it would occur to anyone to look twice at him, especially if one of the northern lords claimed him as theirs.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is all just baseless speculation. There is no reason to assume the spearwives are special people pretending to be somebody different.

All of our projections about where the story will go are speculations, but these aren't baseless, they're founded on information and examples we've been given in the text. We're told that Squirrel is an excellent climber and that she plans to go to the Godswood, and we've been given Wex's example of eluding capture by climbing far up a tree.. We're told of the stolen Umber daughter, and that the Greatjon has sons and daughters, both .. Then we meet a "spearwife" who speaks more like a highborn northern girl than a wildling and displays a fervent loyalty to "Lord Eddard" ... 

From Jon VII, ADWD :

A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. “Young ones, and pretty,” Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole’s Town.

But at Winterfell.. (from various Theon chapters)

... when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. “Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother,” the singer claimed, though
not one looked like him. ...  ... “You,” said the third washerwoman, an older woman, deep-voiced, with grey streaks in her hair...  ....gaunt grey-haired Myrtle,

Myrtle is neither young nor pretty, and deep voiced. Looking back to ASoS, when Bran & co. encounter the Liddle (presumably), he twice mentions his mother... Dark wings, dark words, me mother used to say, ... and ...

“The wolves will come again,” said Jojen solemnly.
“And how would you be knowing, boy?”
“I dreamed it.”
“Some nights I dream of me mother that I buried nine years past,” the man said, “but when I wake, she’s not come back to us.”
“There are dreams and dreams, my lord.” 

Jojen calls him "my lord" and he doesn't disavow the title. In ADwD, we know where the Wull is and The Flint and Norrey. We know where 2 of the Liddle's sons are but he and his youngest son are MIA, though named in the appendices. Allowing that he might be Myrtle is speculative, but hardly unfounded.

Even Willow is belatedly named "Willow Witch-eye" just before the escape. I don't know what it means (could be many things), but I bet it's not for nothing. Why bother to give her such a tantalising moniker if it's not to mean anything?

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if Bowen knew about the deal - and I'm not sure he did since we have no confirmation of that - he could easily enough thought that deal died with Stannis as the Pink Letter suggested. He could have believed Tycho never reached Stannis or died with him, and that would put an end to any agreement the NW had with the Iron Bank

No... He's pressing Jon about it at the meeting on the wall , in front of Flint and Norrey. Tycho has left, but the pink letter is still some way off. In any case, Jon has his copy (It may in fact be the copy.Both Jon and Tycho knew Tycho could face death on his mission). Jon could still try presenting it to the IB if Tycho doesn't return. We don't know if Tycho set out to see Jon as well as Stannis, or if he simply had the authority to make such an enormous loan entirely on his own (I suspect he did, regardless).

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, there is no reason to believe Thorne and Marsh had the same goals later on. The election of the Lord Commander isn't the same as assassinating the Lord Commander.

 I don't think they do have the same goals, really ... Bowen wants to appease Tywin / KL (to be on what he feels will be the winning side in the struggle for the IT) ... Thorne wants to bring about Jon's death. He's perfectly capable of convincing Bowen that killing Jon is necessary to accomplishing Bowen's goals.

I'll have to reply to the rest in the morning. 'Night, all.

[rotting sea cow]

23 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon doesn't confess to anything in reading the letter.. He reads out a bunch of accusations made by someone else .. and says he's going to make Ramsay answer for a personal threat... he feels he's doing the right thing (as kissdbyfire points out) and lets them all draw their own conclusions.

You pointed many interesting things in your post, but here I disagree. You need to place yourself in the shoes of a Black Brother and listen to the facts contained in the letter, which Jon doesn't discuss. Even if you hate Boltons/Lannisters/Freys/etc you should be extremely worry. I detailed them in another post.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Because what you said was, "Catelyn was also only wounded until we knew that they had thrown her corpse into the river." She was not wounded because as the quote sets up, in Cat's words, she killed Jinglebell by slicing his throat and that was about to happen to her. It would have been more of a surprise if Cat had lived after that... and actually, it was a surprise in the un-dead form of Lady Stoneheart.

Jon's death is foreshadowed and set up by the three other males closest to him, and all play out almost exactly to the smallest detail what happened, and one even what will most likely happen after.

Jon's death and Catelyn's death are not the same.

I actually disagree there. In fact, the six direct death scenes we get in the Prologues and Epilogues of the series (Chett doesn't die in his Prologue) closely resemble the death scenes of Jon and Catelyn as well as some of the fake death scenes (like Davos', Brienne's, Arya's, etc.). Some of them are more direct, others not so much.

It is quite clear, I think, that Varamyr and Cressen both die, since we are with the former when he died and know that Cressen drank a poison and actually are with him when it takes effect. In Pate's case his death is pretty obvious, too. However, Will's case is somewhat different, since we aren't with him when he dies. We don't know what happened after the Waymar wight touched his throat and whether he was able to strangle him. Who is to say that Gared didn't intervene and kill the wight? Or that Coldhands didn't show up to save the man? As long as we don't see Will's corpse (running around as a wight) we can't be sure that he is dead.

And while we know that Kevan has been mortally wounded by Varys we aren't there when he dies and thus we don't know that he is actually dead. Perhaps Qyburn and Ser Robert burst in immediately after the last sentence of ADwD, killing the birds and Varys before they could finish their work with Qyburn now nursing Kevan back to health? Magic could perhaps still save his life.

Brienne's hanging resembles Merrett Frey's death scene closely enough for us to consider it not unlikely that she died as well, and the case for Davos surviving the Blackwater was pretty weak prior to ASoS due to the fact that the odds were very much against him.

In Cat's case you are speculating about future events by referring to the goals and intentions people earlier spoke about. But the fact that the Freys made it clear that they wanted to kill Catelyn doesn't mean they actually went through with it, right?

Just as Jon's assassins made it clear that they wanted to kill him. One cannot use special pleading in Jon's case, insisting that it is not very likely that he died while at the same time not admitting that the other (fake) death scenes closely resemble his.

Now, there are certainly scenarios imaginable that would enable people to save Jon before his heart stopped beating. But they are not very likely if you think about the narrative purpose of this cliffhanger. It is a much more powerful scene if Jon is killed and begins his second life in Ghost rather than just being injured quite severely (especially since the whole concept of the second life was only introduced in the Prologue, most likely for a reason).

4 hours ago, bemused said:

I'm not too sure about that perhaps a long,loose sleeved tunic that only showed it some of the time would work... But if not, the ruby doesn't glow or pulse at all times, and with the amount of looting of corpses that has gone on, I'm not sure it would be thought to be that far out of the ordinary. Rattleshirt was a smaller man and very homely. I don't think it would occur to anyone to look twice at him, especially if one of the northern lords claimed him as theirs.

Oh, I'm not talking about the Boltons finding him easily. It is just about Mance drawing attention to himself. But if chaos and disorder prevail in Winterfell he certainly should be pretty safe for the time being. Assuming he got out of the Great Hall in time and was able to put on the glamor without anybody witnessing it. Which is certainly possible.

In fact, if this is the case then Mance might play a very crucial in the fall of Winterfell. He certainly could find a way to open the gates or contact Stannis if he finds a secret way get out of the castle.

4 hours ago, bemused said:

All of our projections about where the story will go are speculations, but these aren't baseless, they're founded on information and examples we've been given in the text. We're told that Squirrel is an excellent climber and that she plans to go to the Godswood, and we've been given Wex's example of eluding capture by climbing far up a tree.. We're told of the stolen Umber daughter, and that the Greatjon has sons and daughters, both .. Then we meet a "spearwife" who speaks more like a highborn northern girl than a wildling and displays a fervent loyalty to "Lord Eddard" ... 

I should have been more precise. I meant that I see no reason to believe that the spearwives are not spearwives. That they are individuals with their own personal history is quite clear. And it might very well be that Rowan is woman from the North and perhaps even an Umber relation.

That Myrtle idea of yours is way too far-fetched for me.

Willow just has an interesting moniker. Many people have those, that doesn't mean that there is a deeper meaning to them. My first association is that she has a strange eye, possibly due to some infection or other disfigurement. This is pretty close to the evil eye, after all.

4 hours ago, bemused said:

No... He's pressing Jon about it at the meeting on the wall , in front of Flint and Norrey. Tycho has left, but the pink letter is still some way off. In any case, Jon has his copy (It may in fact be the copy.Both Jon and Tycho knew Tycho could face death on his mission). Jon could still try presenting it to the IB if Tycho doesn't return. We don't know if Tycho set out to see Jon as well as Stannis, or if he simply had the authority to make such an enormous loan entirely on his own (I suspect he did, regardless).

Well, one assumes that the Iron Bank only finalizes deals back in their headquarters and if their envoy doesn't return arrive back home alive this might change the risk assessment of the entire enterprise. If King Stannis failed to protect Tycho (and died himself) he clearly would be the wrong pretender to back, especially if Tycho isn't there to vouch for Jon (or Shireen).

A contract is just a piece of paper, after all.

And I'm not inclined to believe Tycho left his copy of the contract with Jon at Castle Black because he couldn't be sure he would return there. Jon took his ships who might subsequently get lost at sea and if he had met a victorious Stannis at Winterfell he might have decided to return to Braavos via White Harbor.

The Iron Bank most likely has no intention to drag things on. Stannis should sit the Iron Throne as quickly as possible to cut their losses short. The quicker he wins his campaign the sooner they get their money back and the smaller the additional loans will be they have to grant to Stannis.

This is why I think it very likely that the Iron Bank will deploy Faceless Men to Westeros to take out Stannis' enemies as soon as the deal is finalized. That seems to be their modus operandi if we can trust Jon's short musings on them in ADwD. If you cross the Iron Bank they tend to support/create rivals and pretenders and you yourself are very likely to die quite suddenly.

[Greywater-Watch]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And while we know that Kevan has been mortally wounded by Varys we aren't there when he dies and thus we don't know that he is actually dead. Perhaps Qyburn and Ser Robert burst in immediately after the last sentence of ADwD, killing the birds and Varys before they could finish their work with Qyburn now nursing Kevan back to health? Magic could perhaps still save his life.

You think, Kevan Lannister and Catelyn Stark might not be dead based on what is written in the books? When do you consider textual evidence sufficient for the death of a character? If you were right and GRRM was really playing such a game with the Reader, he would loose all credibility and we might meet Maester Luwin soon.

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This is why I think it very likely that the Iron Bank will deploy Faceless Men to Westeros to take out Stannis' enemies as soon as the deal is finalized. That seems to be their modus operandi if we can trust Jon's short musings on them in ADwD. If you cross the Iron Bank they tend to support/create rivals and pretenders and you yourself are very likely to die quite suddenly.

The FM are no army. And as to the Iron Bank, it is said they would make rise rivals by financial support, not kill those who do not pay their debts.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

You think, Kevan Lannister and Catelyn Stark might not be dead based on what is written in the books? When do you consider textual evidence sufficient for the death of a character? If you were right and GRRM was really playing such a game with the Reader, he would loose all credibility and we might meet Maester Luwin soon.

No, I don't. I just wanted to point out that such arguments as many people present for Jon Snow not being killed by the assassins extend to a great deal to a lot of the other POV characters that actually were killed in chapter, making it special pleading to argue that there are special rules for Jon.

If you consider it likely that Jon was not killed by the assassins you also have to consider it not unlikely that Will, Kevan, Catelyn, etc. might have been saved by a 'miracle' before they actually died. Just look how Davos survived the Blackwater or how Sandor, Victarion, and Gregor (in a sense) were 'magically healed' from seemingly mortal wounds.

The default interpretation of Jon's last chapter should be that he was killed because that's how it looked.

2 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The FM are no army. And as to the Iron Bank, it is said they would make rise rivals by financial support, not kill those who do not pay their debts.

No, it is also indicated that the Iron Bank's enemies tend to die rather quickly. If you cross the bank you are in trouble. Sure, they won't send the Faceless Men after you until they struck a deal with one of your rivals who is also accepting to pay back what you owe the bank. With that settled in Stannis' case the next step would be to deploy Faceless Men to kill Tommen and Myrcella (and possibly also Cersei, Mace, and some other people), making the way free for Stannis to claim his brother's throne.

Aegon's invasion is going to complicate things, of course, but he might become a target for assassination, too. As might Dany if she ends up bringing those dragons west after the Iron Bank (and Braavos) has decided to intervene in the war on the side of Stannis.

Keep in mind that the rise of Euron in the south most likely is going to raise concern with the Braavosi, too. They are a major (trading) naval power. A pirate-king with a huge fleet of raiders on the Iron Throne is most likely the last thing they want.

[The Fattest Leech]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I actually disagree there. In fact, the six direct death scenes we get in the Prologues and Epilogues of the series (Chett doesn't die in his Prologue) closely resemble the death scenes of Jon and Catelyn as well as some of the fake death scenes (like Davos', Brienne's, Arya's, etc.). Some of them are more direct, others not so much.

~snipped~

There was a plan to play politics and try to influence the choosing of the LC at Castle Black a long time ago. Some of these conspirators openly hated Jon and Starks, some hated being at the wall, some hated Jon because they are misunderstanding the meaning of the Night's Watch purpose. As described by a few others, there was talk of plans to try and control the decision making process. Jon was able to get rid of many of the four conspirators, except for the one that has the literal description of being duplicitous- the Pomegranate.

What it seems you are doing is lumping every death together in one big pile without realizing that all of those people you mentioned all die for different reasons. Details matter. Some are linked to others for the purpose of foreshadowing within their own sub-plot, others are only linked because it gives a glimpse of just one aspect. George describes three other (symbolically connected) deaths that directly link to Jon almost the exact same way each, down to the body positions and last words.

Jon and Catelyn's death are not comparable. Jon and Cat had no connection in life, why would they have one in death?

There was someone else who died at the Red Wedding that does have a deep connection to Jon on both a personal, bonded level and also has a direwolf and warg abilities. Robb is the death connection... but only for the cause and beginning.

Jon's own mutiny stabbing is related to the main characters in his life. While the other main male influence in Jon's life, his bonded father Ned, Jon honors by way of his life teachings. Jon is keeping Ned's spirit alive that way. One of those ways is shown in his conversation with Stannis about how Jon agrees he wants to repopulate the Gift with wildlings, because repopulating the Gift was something Ned (and Benjen) wanted to do.

Rhaegar= the past at the Trident, which also carries on Jon's connection to water. Rhaegar dies, falls to his knees which would be into mud at the Trident, and whispers his last word, "Lyanna". (yes, that has been confirmed)

Robb= the present. Robb is also mutiny arrowed/stabbed like Jon, but Robb has a wolf to warg into and Cat tells Robb to go to Greywind. Robb's last word is "Greywind." Greywind was also released by Robb's squire, Raynald, and chances are Ghost was released as well and Jon sees him and has his first concious warg into Ghost as Jon's last word is, "Ghost."

Bran= the future. There is the scene outside BR's cave where Bran saw himself laying face down in the snow (as Jon did when he was stabbed), and Bran saw Summer defending his body (as Ghost probably is), and then Bran gets help from a female who is connected to the old gods (of which Jon realizes Ghost is also of, and Jon realizes he and Ghost are one). Bran at this time is looking at his body and wonders what could happen to it, and that is when Leaf shows up to help. We also saw this foreshadowing of someone (a female) coming to help Jon when he was wounded when Jon was attacked by the eagle that came for his eyes, and Jon was face down in the mud, and Ygritte came to stand over his body to defend it with her bone knife. Well, there is another woman at Castle Black with a bone knife, and a connection to Ghost, and many reasons to defend John at this time during his second fall into snow.

Even Melisandre sees a man-wolf connection:

• The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.

 

These are just basic details and I outlined this very clearly in my other thread if anyone really wants to see the breakdown with the links and quotes. It is two back to back posts starting here.

[bemused]

12 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

You pointed many interesting things in your post, but here I disagree. You need to place yourself in the shoes of a Black Brother and listen to the facts contained in the letter, which Jon doesn't discuss. Even if you hate Boltons/Lannisters/Freys/etc you should be extremely worry. I detailed them in another post.

I haven't seen your post yet... I'll look back for it. In the meantime, I have placed myself in the shoes of a black brother, and this is what I come up with :

1. We know Bowen doesn't speak for all the men.

2. Ramsay's reputation for duplicity and viciousness is well known in the north, and if for some reason they weren't aware of it before, with Flint and Norrey's men at the wall and in light of the news that Ramsay is to marry Arya, the brothers will be aware of it now. We know how gossip circulates at CB.

3. "Ramsay" claims Mance is alive, but they saw him burn. They have not been given to know anything of glamours. Are they to believe the letter, or their own lying eyes ?

4. They know Jon doesn't have Arya to give ... so the threat Ramsay represents to CB has to be understood. After Styr's attack they know all too well their vulnerability to the south.

5. Stannis' death may well be believed, but seven days of battle must seem pretty far fetched. It would be apparent that not everything in the letter can be true.

(I think most brothers would be as confused as Jon and Tormund were at first, hearing the contents.)

6. Having already called the meeting to discuss Hardhome, I think Jon did pretty much the only thing he could do. I think that Ramsay is already on his way (based on information in the TWoW Theon chapter), and Jon understands that (or at least understands that he daren't gamble against it). He has no time to open a big debate with all and sundry. He has every right to expect the NW to follow orders and he must appear strong and decisive if he is to win the Free Folk to him.

Jon and Tormund wouldn't have been leaving on their missions immediately.. there would have been time for further explanation, at least personally to Jon's lieutenants .. as we've seen him explain to Giant, Iron Emmet,etc. - even Slynt and Thorne, before he sent them out .. as we've seen him answer Dywen (acting as spokesman for the men), when Jon returned from Tormund's camp.

So I think opinions will vary among the brothers - there wouldn't be an immediate consensus. Jon and Tormund spent two hours picking the letter apart and deciding on a plan. Most brothers would need some time to digest it, though some may have snap Bowen-like opinions - but all have recent cause to have a low opinion of mutineers. 

[Clegane'sPup]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The default interpretation of Jon's last chapter should be that he was killed because that's how it looked.

@Lord Varys Har! I finally did it. I got that red highlight thing to work. Thank you @Blue Tiger

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The default interpretation of Jon's last chapter should be that he was killed because that's how it looked.

Discussion for the sake of conversation and you strike me as a good sport not easily riled.  It is fine to point out the multitude of possibilities (coulda, woulda, shouda) and interesting to banter about. Could I narrow the scope a teeny tiny bit?

Word definition and context are important in a novel. I’m just talking about Jon’s cliffhanger. No other death comparisons.

Correct or incorrect my stance is that Jon was wounded during a mutiny. Mutiny means to depose, oust. Assassins mean murderers especially of a political leader or public leader.

To your statement, “The default interpretation of Jon’s last chapter should be that he was killed because that’s how it looked.”

In my readings of the ASOIAF novels I have learned to take nuttin’ for granted. Martin is a trisky bird. My opinion is LC Snow is wounded. The mutiny failed. That is my stance until WoW is released and I find out differently and then I may have to eat crow and say damn I was wrong.

Thing is there are many interpretations as to how Jon’s DwD cliffhanger ends.

When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?"

"For the Watch." Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

Keep in mind that the years of fandom talk that Jon would warg Ghost ceased when the thing that is not suppose to be mentioned poo pooed the idea. Projecting my thoughts, if I was Jon, when I healed up shite would hit the fan. Fetch me the block.  

 

[Wm Portnoy]

On 12/19/2016 at 11:25 PM, Lord High Papal said:

Theory A

 

A

It was unplanned and desperate.  That's why the execution was done poorly.  It was done in response to Jon's revelations at the shield hall.  Bowen needed to stop the wildlings before they can raid winterfell and shed the blood of the people the watch is sworn to protect.  Jon was about to do a very bad thing. 

[bemused]

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Har! I finally did it. I got that red highlight thing to work. Thank you @Blue Tiger

Bravo!.. Now if I could only remember how I finally learned to do it before I absented myself for 4 months.. can someone remind me?

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The default interpretation of Jon's last chapter should be that he was killed because that's how it looked

Not necessarily, when reading GRRM.

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

take nuttin’ for granted. Martin is a trisky bird. My opinion is LC Snow is wounded. The mutiny failed. That is my stance until WoW is released and I find out differently and then I may have to eat crow and say damn I was wrong.

My sentiments exactly, if I find out differently ... 

4 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

These are just basic details and I outlined this very clearly in my other thread if anyone really wants to see the breakdown with the links and quotes. It is two back to back posts starting here.

I really like your comparisons, especially this one, from your linked posts :

"Yes. Robb, get up. Get up and walk out, please, please. Save yourself . . . if not for me, for Jeyne."
"Jeyne?" Robb grabbed the edge of the table and forced himself to stand. "Mother," he said, "Grey Wind . . ."
"Go to him. Now. Robb, walk out of here."

Well, of course I do think Val will be there (she and Ghost belong together..) and as the thought of Jeyne motivates Robb , Jon's first thought was of Val when all hell broke loose.

My fine-tuned theory is that, keeping to the Norse theme, Jon is ulfheddin = wolf form of berserker ( and thus Odin's man) and will be getting up fuelled by some uber-adrenalin (and to do more than walk out).. Quotes and examples given here...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/130451-jon-the-berserker/

Oh, I do think he's wounded and will need eventual attention from Val and Morna when the fury passes.

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Keep in mind that the years of fandom talk that Jon would warg Ghost ceased when the thing that is not suppose to be mentioned poo pooed the idea. Projecting my thoughts, if I was Jon, when I healed up shite would hit the fan. Fetch me the block

For me, the fan gets hit even before the healing..I put no faith in "that thing", but it may have even given a (very feeble and unsatisfactory) nod to my theory. Insofar as Jon's nature is concerned, I mean.

[kissdbyfire]

@bemused, just add @ in front of the poster's name without space. 

[bemused]

@kissdbyfire Blessings... I was trying like mad the other night - I tried with and without a space to no avail, so I must have been misspelling the poster's name as well..typical! 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

There was a plan to play politics and try to influence the choosing of the LC at Castle Black a long time ago. Some of these conspirators openly hated Jon and Starks, some hated being at the wall, some hated Jon because they are misunderstanding the meaning of the Night's Watch purpose. As described by a few others, there was talk of plans to try and control the decision making process. Jon was able to get rid of many of the four conspirators, except for the one that has the literal description of being duplicitous- the Pomegranate.

Why are mentioning this as if it was anything special? Do you think the other hundreds of elections of Lord Commander were apolitical? Do you think men like Brynden Rivers, Black Harren's brother, or the various Stark (boy) commanders were (only) elected because of their merit or because the NW wanted to suck up to powerful people?

Thorne dislikes Jon and Slynt does, too (because he played a crucial role in the execution of Eddard Stark) but this doesn't mean they are obsessed with destroying Jon or care all that much about him. They have a different interpretation of the political situation. 

3 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

What it seems you are doing is lumping every death together in one big pile without realizing that all of those people you mentioned all die for different reasons. Details matter. Some are linked to others for the purpose of foreshadowing within their own sub-plot, others are only linked because it gives a glimpse of just one aspect. George describes three other (symbolically connected) deaths that directly link to Jon almost the exact same way each, down to the body positions and last words.

What you do there is make a lot of interesting observations. But I see no reason why Jon's death scene should be intrinsically different from any other POV death we got in chapter. Your and mine approach there are perfectly valid. And all I really wanted to point out is that other death scenes as either as ambiguous as Jon's or even more ambiguous.

3 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Jon and Catelyn's death are not comparable. Jon and Cat had no connection in life, why would they have one in death?

That doesn't matter when we are comparing death scenes in those books. There is no reason to believe that only the death scenes of certain are connected. George interconnects a lot of stuff. Just look who likes to say 'Words are wind' or who knows and plays cyvasse.

3 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Even Melisandre sees a man-wolf connection:

• The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.

I'm pretty much on board with that parallel. We all pointed out years ago that this whole thing could be a hint that Jon is going to die, become Ghost, only to eventually be restored to his original body. We don't need some vision telling us that he is a skinchanger. We already know that.

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Word definition and context are important in a novel. I’m just talking about Jon’s cliffhanger. No other death comparisons.

Correct or incorrect my stance is that Jon was wounded during a mutiny. Mutiny means to depose, oust. Assassins mean murderers especially of a political leader or public leader.

I'm not sure whether there was a mutiny. We don't know how many officers and brothers of the Watch stand with Marsh. If Marsh isn't exactly the bravest man under the sun - and we know that this is the case - then he most likely would only act if he knew that a majority of the brothers would either stand with him, not interfere with them, or accept the status quo after the assassination.

Also keep in mind that Jon's speech in the Shieldhall can be interpret as him abandoning his post and deserting the Night's Watch. If you see it this way the man no longer was the Lord Commander when they killed him. He was an oathbreaker, a deserter, and a traitor, and his life worth as much as Gared's was when Eddard Stark introduced him to Ice.

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

To your statement, “The default interpretation of Jon’s last chapter should be that he was killed because that’s how it looked.”

In my readings of the ASOIAF novels I have learned to take nuttin’ for granted. Martin is a trisky bird. My opinion is LC Snow is wounded. The mutiny failed. That is my stance until WoW is released and I find out differently and then I may have to eat crow and say damn I was wrong.

Thing is there are many interpretations as to how Jon’s DwD cliffhanger ends.

I'd urge you to try to clear your mind and try to ignore your preconceptions while rereading the other POV death scenes (and the POV fake deaths) and then ask yourself how they differ from Jon's and whether one could also interpret those as 'non-death scenes'.

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Keep in mind that the years of fandom talk that Jon would warg Ghost ceased when the thing that is not suppose to be mentioned poo pooed the idea. Projecting my thoughts, if I was Jon, when I healed up shite would hit the fan. Fetch me the block.  

That thing is pretty much irrelevant. There was no Varamyr Prologue in that thing, nor was the second life introduced there. And if that thing botched anything completely it was Jon's return from the dead. George always talks about the meaning and importance of death and resurrection. Jon isn't Gandalf, but he came back in a way that is even worse in the show because we got neither a reason why he came back nor character development in the wake of it. 

Quote

Why should Jon or anybody care about him dying in the fight against Ramsay? The man was dead and came back once. Why not twice, thrice, or whenever he is killed. Death has become a joke. So why didn't Jon laugh when the nearly was buried beneath all those men? Why does he still fear death? Why does he behave as if he didn't die?

 

4 minutes ago, bemused said:

Bravo!.. Now if I could only remember how I finally learned to do it before I absented myself for 4 months.. can someone remind me?

In my browser you can choose whom to highlight when you type in an '@'.

4 minutes ago, bemused said:

Not necessarily, when reading GRRM.

Even with George, we can say that it is duck when it looks like one and quakes like one. That's why many readers actually thought some of the characters who died fake deaths died in reality (Arya, Brienne, Davos, etc.) when reading the books for the first time.

If we had any direct hint that anybody came to Jon's aid we could hope that the assassins would deal him even more mortal wounds I'd would also seriously consider the possibility that his life might be saved. But there are no such hints in the assassination scene. None. The idea that Jon was saved by somebody is as likely that Will was saved by Coldhands or Gared immediately after the end of the Prologue or that Ser Robert dispatched Varys and the birds before they could finishing butchering Kevan who was then magically saved by Qyburn.

Nobody cares about these people all that much, thus people tend to accept those scenes as death scenes. Only in Jon's case do we have many people arguing that we cannot be completely sure that he is dead. I think we can, because that always would give the best story. Death and resurrection are already a thing in this series and it would certainly be a very interesting plot line to have one of the main characters transcend/survive death, even if it is going to be cheating in part, due to his skinchanger abilities.

I'd have much less respect for George as a writer if he actually took the easy road out and made this a botched assassination. Just think how the Red Wedding would have looked if either Robb or Catelyn had lived.