rotting sea cow

Eh, no! Aerys just ordered the gruesome death of a Lord Paramount and his heir as well as many notable companions. He ordered Arryn to kill Ned and Robert, who are his foster sons and his guests. Under what premises could have Jon negotiated with Aerys? So, yes, the Rebellion was justified. The problem is what to do once you topple Aerys. Put Rhaegar on the IT? Viserys with a long and strong regency? And then what? Go to separate kingdoms? Or topple the whole dynasty and start another anew? I'm unsure about the purpose of these threads tough.

They will likely pose as Baratheon forces, maybe contracted by Stannis and after driving out the Reach forces camped outside Storm's Ends the defenders will open the doors. A similar scenario that happened to Theon in Winterfell.

Not completely. Some time after the Rebellion, Dorne almost raised for Viserys. Jon Arryn had to go there to calm the waters. It is pretty clear that a significant fraction of the Reach is pro-Targaryens. Many other lords are (were?) sympathizers, including in many of these five regions. The North might be an exception but even Umber notes that they owe nothing to the IT because they were bound to the "dragons". In a similar note, Balon Greyjoy also justified his first rebellion because "no Greyjoy ever swore an oath to a Baratheon". Now. You have to take into account that the Dany and Viserys were kids, something that makes difficult for them to keep and manage whatever support is left. Had their mother survived, things would have been very different. Also, Robert Baratheon and in particular Jon Arryn were aware of that and threaded carefully with these issues, eroding the Targaryen base with time. A number of alliances were made, incentives were given to those who wanted to be loyal, relatively small punishments to former loyalists, subtle threats, etc. Examples: Robert-Cersei marriage, Stannis-Selyse marriage, some exiled lords, few who lost status and some of their lands (Darry, Connignton, etc.), Loras squiring for Renly, Arryn promises to Dorne, etc. Balon Greyjoy actually bet that Robert's support was smaller during his first Rebellion and they would be unable to deal with two threats (former loyalists and ironborn). He was wrong and Robert became a quite popular king. However, we will see that this doesn't extend to "his sons" and the Realm is breaking apart. Many will look with hope to a Targaryen restoration, or what it seems to be one.

Yes, indeed. Cersei is planing something but what I mean is that there are other characters whose timelines are still lagging behind. Indeed, this might be an important reason why Varys decided to kill him. And with the situation in the Reach growing dire, there might not be another Grand Maester. As a side note, I found always very weird that there is only one maester at the Red Keep. The closest ones seems to be at Rosby and Stokewords! Yes, but I have the feeling that anyway the book will be very intense. That's why I argued that these chapters should be the first ones leading to the battles. You cannot place Alyane I amid the battles without breaking the rhythm (same goes for Sam and Davos). For the same reason, it is reasonable to expect that all the battles are narrated altogether, maybe one after another or intermixed. Alyane II, should describe the tourney fuck-up. Either before the battles or immediately after.

The thing is TWOW will start before ADWD ends and the books are written in approximate chronological order. GRRM has warned about this in his other books. For example Aeron I AFFC (The Prophet) should be located mid ASOS! Whilst the next chapter is after the death of Oberyn. Similarly Cersei I cannot be the first chapter because it likely happens at the earliest immediately after Kevan's death and most likely after her trial, if indeed that happens. The thing with Arya is she has much less to do (for now) in comparison with other characters (e.g. Arianne or Dany) and if Mercy is an indication you need Harys Swift to get to Braavos first. Because of the tight timelines (weeks at the most) during the first 20-30 chapters, this cannot happen until the battles are done. I see what you mean and I think this is part what keeps GRRM busy and essaying different approaches. Because the book should also have a consistent rhythm. After that very intense first thirds, how do you slowing down a bit to deal with the consequences of the battles. How do you mix intense chapters with relatively boring (but necessary) ones, without breaking the harmony. How do you deal with the tight timelines in Westeros and the necessary longer timelines in Essos? Etc.

Yes. See how my avatar would fare against e.g. Drogon

Yes, but there is nothing that forces him to do so. If an additional PoV solves some narrative problems instead of adding more, GRRM will certainly go for that. This is true, although I'd like to have more one off PoV. I think Mel is confirmed to have more chapters in TWOW. In the end someone has to tell us what's going on at The Wall. Yes, GRRM said that, but I don't think it's possible without breaking some continuity. As I pointed out there are a few PoV that need to catch up with the timeline, in particular Davos, Bran, Sam and Sansa. All of them should have chapters at the very beginning. Alyane I in particular should be among the first. Of course Davos I and Bran I could be further down and tell us thing in retrospective. Oldtown and the Citadel, on the other hand, still need worlbuilding before Euron shows up, so a few Sam chapters are guaranteed before that happen, so at least one should be at the beginning of TWOW. It also makes narrative sense to have all battles being told together, not only the ice and fire, but also the one at the Redwyne's straits and outside Storm's End. So, Aeron and Arianne chapters should come before as well as Cersei I, telling us the results of her trial. IMvHO, the battles won't start until chapter 10 or so, with a build-up from the previous chapters., so we will have a very intense first third of the book. And in between, you still need to squeeze Jaime, Areo, Mel, Dany and Brienne. I tend to think that Jon I (Ghost) and Arya I (Mercy) are further inside the book.

Indeed. Pycelle was examining some book when Varys killed him

Because if he didn't comply with that order he would be declared a traitor and thus a death sentence will hang over his head. And if he did comply he would break guest right as well as kinslaying. It was an impossible choice.

You are misunderstanding the point. The purpose of the thread is discussing which character GRRM regrets killing. There are many possibilities, but if it was Pycelle (something I also supported), there is an obvious way out: Write a Pycelle PoV chapter during the time overlap between ADWD and TWOW. This cannot be done with other characters like Tywin, Oberyn, Aemon, etc because the chapter in question would look completely out of context.

apparently, both Starliner and Crew Dragon are still suffering of some technical problems. It seems unlikely they will fly astronauts to the ISS before the end of the year.

I was too quite convinced about it. He knew things from Aegon V to Tommen's regency. It's a lot and even details about who actually needed the Moon Tea, are not easy to reveal in other ways. Thing is, TWOW won't start where we are left in ADWD. They are other timelines to catch: Davos, Bran, Sam and Sansa come to my mind. E.g. We haven't seen Davos since the White Harbor meeting and yet Manderly went to Barrowtown at "snail pace" and to Winterfell then and stayed there for a long time. Alyane I should be among the first chapters. So, a considerable overlap is a given, imho, and if GRRM considers necessary Pycelle's voice, he can write a chapter before his death. I'd actually love that hypothetical chapter.

Would Varys ever allow that? The only way that could happen is that some people (e.g. some exiled Westerosi) wanted to sell them to Robert and got the idea after some drunken party. Otherwise, Varys would make certain that they get a warning beforehand. As he (and Illyrio) made certain that they never took root anywhere and were able to make alliances.

My interpretation: I may not be a native speaker but that "three treasons will you know" sounds to me like she will learn about three treasons, not that she will experience them. It makes some narrative sense as Dany is somewhat obsessed with the treasons and not with the other visions. Second, the following visions explain (help her, show her) the three fires, three mounts and three deaths. In particular the quoted paragraph match better (imho) with the treasons than with the fires and mounts. Of course as the whispers mocked things are tricky the Rhaego visions is probably related to the treason for blood that Mirri committed. Rhaegar dying with Lyanna's name in his lips must be the treason for love and Viserys must be the treason for gold (for a crown). As you see, all these treasons already happened and contributed to shape Daenerys as the daughter of death.