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rotting sea cow

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  1. Well, contaminated frozen food/packaging was also my working hypothesis for that strange outbreak at the Argentinian ship. I tend to believe that the probabilities are still low, but I wouldn't dismiss it completely. Here, as with the other samples detected frozen food markets, we urgently need studies about the virus viability. That's they aren't just detecting RNA pieces. If they do it in NZ, please keep us updated. It's the only way to be sure. As for tracing back to contaminated food. I think, it's generally hard to prove amid a bigger outbreak, when chances from other ways seem higher. It might even be that the Wuhan market outbreak started in a similar way?
  2. For anyone interested in reading about the Russian "Sputnik V" vaccine https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/forbidden-op-ed-the-sputnik-vaccine-as-a-lifesaving-global-partnership-eng/ Interesting read, regardless of what you think. Treat it with the usual amount of salt. There is a nice infographic in this page which should explain how vector vaccines work (e.g. Oxford, J&J, CanSino, etc)
  3. Could you please pass this article to your very competent management Body temperature screening to identify SARS-CoV-2 infected young adult travellers is ineffective
  4. From what I understand of vector vaccines (which is little) the main problem is that if you have some sort of immunity to the vector, the vaccine fails. For that reason Oxford is going with a non-human adenovirus (IIRC) and Pfizer with a very obscure strain, which few should have been infected. I guess the russian vaccine is using two vectors for the same reason. The probability to have immunity to both of them should be pretty low. Some expert assessment https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/11/the-russian-vaccine ETA: Re-reading the articles I posted I confused the names Pfizer is going with a RNA vaccine. J&J is going with a Vector vaccine. Same strain as in the russian vaccine.
  5. Oh man. You never were so on the spot. WTF? A random household infected? This means there are more people with the virus out there.
  6. Not even that. They have completely skipped the phasing thing, although not without testing in some form. Reportedly during development researchers injected the vaccine to themselves. After that, it was given to the elites (military, politicians, businessmen, etc). Apparently they did a kind of Phase 2 trial with health workers and soldiers, which might have included even some challenging test (that's being exposed to the virus). Now they are going a Phase-3 kinda in Philippines. Duterte said he was going to be the first to get injected. Some info https://www.trialsitenews.com/russias-gamaleya-vaccine-nears-readiness-for-large-scale-use-how-can-this-be-possible/ ETA: On the technical side, the vaccine is conceptually similar to the Oxford and Pfizer J&J vaccine. They all use an adenovirus vector with the SARS-COV-2 spike protein on top. As in the Oxford's vaccine, the vector has been already used in previous vaccines, which explains in part the swift development. Some info about the vaccine developments in this article https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/29/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-29
  7. Well, they are still your closest neighbours. Generally speaking I'd trust more a Canadian insights on the situation in US than someone from India for example. I see I think it will happen sooner or later, but as I argued before, but a later wave is better than a earlier one. There are a number of countries that have done pretty good in this pandemic. See these articles for example ‘S**thole’ Countries Have Handled The Coronavirus Better Than The United States COVID Underdogs: Mongolia COVID Underdogs: Ghana Vietnam is among these countries. They took things seriously from the very beginning. They took contact tracing at a new level going to up to a third level of contacts. Keep in mind they are much poorer than NZ and have far more complicated borders. This is an oldish article How Vietnam is winning its 'war' on coronavirus which may not be valid anymore Coronavirus Vietnam: The mysterious resurgence of Covid-19 See above
  8. Pretty much agree. That's why I've been adamant that as society we should be able to do our duty to keep infections low so kids can go back to school. If we fail to do that and infection rates are high, simply school cannot re-open and this will show that we suck as society. The best we can do is to leave our societies to our asian overlords as they seem to be more competent and responsible. BTW. Since you are down-under, what's going on with Australia? I just checked the worldmeters stats and their second wave is already showing in the reported covid-19 deaths. This suggest to me that their outbreak is much worse than reported due to the delay of ~18 days between onset of symptoms and death. With an IFR of ~1% this means they had >1000 infected 15-20 days ago as they are reporting 10 and 15 deaths. I guess that prompted the Melbourne lockdown as they realized that things were much worse than it seemed at first.
  9. I tend to think they used it as a template because it - probably - already passed some internal reviews for legality, etc. Many countries have enacted measures based on previously proposed regulation/benefits/etc for - I suspect now - similar reasons or fast-tracked those already in the workings. Thanks to @Leap for the explanations
  10. Well, there was a time in my life that I couldn't survive without partying. Probably saved myself of some inner troubles until I was mature enough to deal with them. Socializing with peers in a fundamental need for the younger people and they are going to do it even illegally (just ask young iranians for example). Where do we make the cuts? You cannot tell some that they can go to the church and others that cannot meet their friends. That some can go to the gym and other cannot dance. You only will end with situations like this Germany: 18 officers injured dispersing Berlin rally against coronavirus curbs Berlin police said that 18 of its officers were injured, while three were hospitalized in dispersing some 20,000 people protesting anti-pandemic measures. Many participants dismissed the coronavirus as a "false alarm."
  11. Well. It's somthing I'd like to know too. It's clear that some situations are prone to create superspreading events. Behaviour of some have also an influence, including things like voice volume. But I tend to suspect there is also some medical/anatomical/physiological characteristics also at play. I haven't seen anything on the effect on R0 of suppressing superspreading events. I'm not sure if it's enough to completely cut the infection chain. I tend to think that unless coordinated and effective measures are internationally agreed and enforced, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot suppress the pandemic. Even in that case, a few non-complaining individuals (or even accidents) can trash months of hard work as New Zealand, Uruguay or Vietnam will learn sooner or later.
  12. It's still an open question, but a lot of them. I've seen numbers from 6-10% of the people cause the 80-90% of the infections. So getting rid of the superspreaders will have a huge impact. It's clear that certain situations are dangerous: churches, night clubs, discotheques, slaughterhouses, etc as well as certain activities like shouting, singing, speaking under physical effort, etc. Forbidding and managing some of these situation for the time being will help (you cannot forbid slaughterhouses but they need to be managed with care). The question there is whether there is also intrinsic to some people that make them superspreaders.
  13. Depends mostly on the political situation after that kingdom is established. There are multiple examples of kingdoms and empires surviving despite apparently indefensible borders. You don't need natural ones if you have a good defending strategy. Of course an alliance between the Westerlands and the Reach is hard to defeat, but it's possible to make them pay a hefty price in case of any attempt following the strategy that Edmure usdd during the Battle of the Fords. A river navy would be also of help in that scheme. So a river like the Blackwater Rush, the Western Hills and the Red Fork would suffice. Of course, King's Landing and the Crowlands will have to go. otherwise that front will be forever open.
  14. To be fair, the cancelled seafood imports from other countries too. Besides Canada they did the same to Norway, Peru and Chile (AFAIK). They claim the outbreak at that marked had the famous D614G variant which was so far unseen in China. Although I agree that an incoming traveller is a more likely source.
  15. The first. The sailors were tested before embarking. In the second case the outbreak should have started much earlier. What about on the surfaces of packaged meat? I believe you, but consider that the meat industry in Argentina is huge and the conditions worse than those in developed countries. Calves are hastily slaughtered and the meat quickly processed to be sent overseas in frozen and vacuum sealed packages. I don't think there are taking lots of precautions. I'm going to ask around to see what people think about it. Argentinian meat is otherwise excellent We are talking about a ship, a fishing trawler, with likely unclean and cramped conditions. Not an hotel or a restaurant. Maybe there was not even a cook. In Argentina, for example, construction workers take turns to make asados (BBQs) for lunch every day. Well, which other possibilities we have? A very long incubation time (25 days at minimum assuming one of the sailors violated quarantine) or food contamination that endured for more than a month. Both options are unlikely. I tend to think the first has better chances. But again, it would be a kind of lottery ticket that it happened exactly on a ship out at sea, unless it's more common than we think, which would be worrisome.
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