By guile

[John Suburbs]

On ‎3‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 4:44 PM, Lord Varys said:

How should that work? If Stannis isn't there he cannot confirm. And we don't even know whether the man knows where Stannis is right now. And even if he did, waiting for a reply from Castle Black should take weeks. We also have no idea how the general mood among the garrison is. How desperate are there? How many provisions have they left? Do they want to continue the fight at all costs or are they considering to yield already if they get good terms?

If the Golden Company visibly slaughters Tyrell men in front of the walls the garrison has every reason to believe they are not King Tommen's friends. That in itself should mean they should see them as potential allies, irregardless whether they are actually working for Stannis or not. But assuming they are working for a dead Targaryen prince isn't something that will cross their minds.

And if some fellow Stormlords end up being with the Golden Company things should even be more easier.

Yes, like I said, this is probably what will happen for the very reasons you stated, but he is still a fool to open the gates without confirmation from Stannis, even if it takes a thousand years. There are about 200 men guarding the castle, which is large enough to store a sufficient amount of food to withstand quite a long siege. And until recently, they still had relative freedom of the seas, considering the Redwyne Fleet was at Dragonstone. So they shouldn't be all that desperate yet.

Of all the houses the GC has taken, Lord Morrigan of Crow's Nest is the only lord still loyal and still in the area (we think) who has enough clout to speak for Stannis, but it is highly doubtful he would cooperate with a bunch of sellswords. Ormund Wyld of Rain House is with Stannis in the North and Eldon Estermont swore loyalty to Joffrey after the Blackwater -- and JonCon, of course, has been an exile for 15 years.

The Boltons slaughtered the forces outside Winterfell and Theon opened the gates thinking they were friends, a foolish thing to do.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

In my best Ricky Gevais voice accompanied by body language this is how the taking of SE goes.

Gotta build the scene.

There are these people holed up in SE. Tyrell has lain siege outside the walls. One day sumthin changes. The besieger suddenly rides off with ¾ of his host leaving a token force outside the walls of SE.

Umm, what’s this about now? Oye, he’s leavin’, where’s he going? Meh, glad he’s gone.

Oye, bloke looka this now. Fook me. It’s a kid with silver hair riding a horse followed by sum elephants and a buncha scary looking sellswords shoutin’ and waving swords. Fookin A they killed all dem left behind besiegers.

You there, open your gates. Stannis has sent us to help you. <crickets> think Monty Python.

Oye, no, ain’t opening the gate. Glad you killed the besiegers but no the gate it not be opening. Preciate you help. We are good. Thanks all the same.