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Bael's Bastard

Lyanna, and Brandon, were traveling with Lord Rickard's wedding party when Rhaegar allegedly abducted Lyanna

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3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Benjen had to return from Harrenhal to Winterfell before Rickard could leave. Brandon had to turn twenty in 282 AC before he dueled Petyr at Riverrun. Brandon had to ride from Riverrun to wherever he went for however long he went. Brandon had to ride from wherever he was when he heard about Lyanna to King's Landing. Rickard had to ride from Winterfell to wherever he was when he received Aerys's summons. Rickard had to ride from wherever he was when he received Aerys's summons to King's Landing. The "trials" and executions of Rickard, Brandon, and their companions had to occur. Jon had to receive word of their executions, and Aerys's command to execute Robert and Ned.

I understand your point about the necessity of time and distance. A man on horseback at a forced pace might be able to do 50 miles in one day, but it's not a pace he would want to push the horse if he had many miles to cover. I seem to recall that it took Robert a month to go from Kings Landing to Winterfell due to Cersei's wheelhouse. Please correct me if I'm wrong - it just seems to be the length of time that I recall. An army marches much slower - I would guess less than half the speed of a forced pace, so maybe 10-20 miles per day? :dunno:  I seem to recall that the pioneers that travelled by covered wagon only did ten miles a day, so I always seem to envision that slow of a pace for armies who are bringing wagons of supplies and would have many walking soldiers. 

The only thing fast would be raven communication. Ducks and geese fly an average of 332 miles a day. I have no idea how fast a raven can fly, but  I imagine they could fly from Kings Landing to Winterfell in a day or two. Has anybody ever estimated the miles between KL and Winterfell?

We could assume just for the sake of an example that Brandon's birth month was January, then the whole month of January could encompass his name day, the duel with Petyr, the selected wedding date, and Lyanna's abduction. If the tourney at Harrenhal were held in November of the previous year, Benjen had plenty of time to get home in time for his father to leave for Brandon's wedding. Even if the trip took Rickard a month to get to Riverrun, he could have left in early December and still made an early January wedding. Presumably Aerys knew the wedding would be held at Riverrun, so it seems like a reasonable guess that Aerys had sent the raven there with the demand Rickard come to Kings Landing, making it possible to have Brandon and Rickard in Kings Landing by the end of January.

 

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

It took Robert's party twelve days just to cross the Neck, and it took Ned and his party a fortnight to ride from Castle Darry, half a day's ride south of the Trident, to King's Landing. This presumably doesn't even take into account how long it took the party to get from Winterfell to the entrance of the Neck, or how long it took for the party to get from the exit of the Neck to the Inn at the Crossroads.

The wedding date was selected in advance, so the Starks would have set out early enough to arrive on time. If the tourney of Harrenhal were ten days in November, Benjen could have been home by the end of November. Surely Rickard used his time at home to prepare for the journey to Riverrun and was ready to leave by the time Benjen arrived home.

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I disagree. I don't think it is plausible that the account Daenerys believes originates outside pro-Rhaegar and pro-Targaryen sources. It's an account that completely romanticizes Rhaegar and his abduction of Lyanna, rather than denies that the abduction occurred. This indicates to me that the fact of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna is too well known on all sides for any side to dismiss it that it happened, and that all that any side could do was fit it to their narrative, whether negatively or positively.

The details we have do not prevent Rhaegar from having the time or opportunity to kidnap Lyanna. We know he was on Dragonstone for the birth of Aegon after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, and we are told that Rhaegar had taken to the road with the coming of 282 AC. It is worth noting that, by land and/or water, Dragonstone is not a great distance from the Riverlands and the area not leagues from Harrenhal where Lyanna is said to have been abducted. And we aren't told anything about when in 282 AC Lyanna was abducted.

People believed they saw Rhaegar and his men, so that became the story. It was easily believed, because of what people had seen at the tourney - that Rhaegar had ridden past his pregnant wife and laid the laurel in Lyanna's lap.

Elia was 5-7 months pregnant during the tourney of Harrenhal. Aegon was born in the first quarter of 282 - Jan, Feb, or Mar. Why would Rhaegar take to the road during the very time period his son was due to arrive? Not only that, but leave his wife who "nearly died" in childbirth. It doesn't make any sense. What's the rush? Couldn't he wait until she had safely recovered? What if Lyanna wasn't in the Riverlands? Was he going to ride all the way to Winterfell?

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The SSM singles out Rhaegar's treatment of Elia, not Aerys's. I am sure Aerys's threat angered the Dornish as well, but that didn't occur until after the ten thousand were already marching up the Kingsroad.

I had misread the SSM, because there are other sources which indicate it was Aerys's treatment of Elia - not Rhaegar.

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't think there's any evidence that Elia went to Dorne after the birth of Aegon. Nor do I see any reason to believe that Rhaegar would have taken part in marshaling the Dornishmen. Or why Rhaegar wouldn't have just brought the Dornishmen to King's Landing himself. Furthermore, TWOIAF states that the Dornishment went over the Boneway and up the Kingsroad. The closest Rhaegar is implied to have been to Dorne is the tower in the area of the Prince's Pass near the borders of Dorne and Stormlands.

The evidence was where Elia was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. The Kingswood is south of Kings Landing, and the Kingsroad leads to Dorne. The timing of the attack is after she was well enough to travel after birthing Rhaenys, which suggests a pattern. We know Elia went to Dragonstone to birth Aegon, and we know she was back in Kings Landing by the time Lewyn was sent to take command. My position is she followed the same pattern as when she had Rhaenys: birth on Dragonstone, a trip home to show her family, and then back to Kings Landing.

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see it. I don't see Tywin's men operating so deep into the Riverlands at that time, nor do I see Tywin's men bringing Lyanna to King's Landing at that time. I just don't see any basis for that.

When Ned was Robert's Hand Tywin had instructed Gregor Clegane to raid the Riverlands, but they went without any banners in order to disguise who they were. The only way they were identified was due to Gregor's enormous size. Ned sent out Beric Dondarrion with a detachment to investigate and bring Gregor to justice. Beric actually ended up naming his group after the mission: the Brotherhood Without Banners. What I'm suggesting is something that we know Tywin has already done.

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On 2/19/2019 at 6:54 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Rhaegar and Elia and Joffrey and Margaery were both said to have married at the beginning of the new year.

In addition to all that has been said about this, Fire and Blood adds several other examples. The following I can recall, but it is possible others were mentioned:

- Alysanne Targaryen and Orryn Baratheon were supposed to wed on the seventh day of the year

- Aegon III married Jaehaera Targaryen on the seventh day of the seventh month, and Daenaera Velaryon on  the last day of the year

- Alyssa Velaryon and Rogar Baratheon married on the seventh day of the seventh month as well

The number seven, features heavily, and the book makes it clear that the 7th day of the 7th month is seen as sacred to the gods.

 

On 2/19/2019 at 8:50 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

@Igziabeher

I don't see why Ned, who was in the Vale with Lord Robert Baratheon and Lord Jon Arryn after the Harrenhal Tourney, wouldn't have attended his brother's wedding at Riverrun. Jon's nephew and heir Elbert Arryn was among Brandon's companions, along with another Vale noble Kyle Royce, so I would think they would have attended Brandon's wedding. I would think it likely that Jon and Robert would have also attended Brandon's wedding. And since Lyanna was in the Riverlands when she was abducted, I would think she was intended to attend Brandon's wedding as well.

Perhaps Eddard had yet to leave, and remained at the Vale after learning about the troubles concerning Lyanna, and later Brandon?

 

On 2/20/2019 at 4:03 PM, Frey family reunion said:

With this timeline, it appears that at least in Riverrun, the wedding announcement comes awfully late in the game.  Perhaps even after Rickard and company have already left Winterfell and headed south.  And way past the time of the Harrenhall tourney, when it was common knowledge that Lyanna was betrothed to Robert.  Perhaps, this might just be something not thought through by the author, but for sake of argument, would there be a motive for Hoster having kept such a tight lid on this wedding until so soon before the wedding was to happen?

 

The app reports that it was the wedding date that was announced at Riverrun when Brandon was there, IIRC, and that the announcement of the date caused Petyr to challenge Brandon. The betrotal itself had been known for a while before that.

I know that tjere are quite a few people who do not like using information from the app, but I felt it worth reporting that this is what it says. 

On 2/21/2019 at 4:20 PM, Feather Crystal said:

There is a juggling act with the timeline beginning with Rhaegar and Elia's marriage all the way down to the age Aegon was said to be when his head was smashed against the wall of the royal apartments. 

That Aegon was a year old, give or take a few months, at his death comes from an SSM. SSMs are semi-canon, meaning that, at the time they are spoken/reported, they reflect the was GRRM envisions that particular part of the story. However, because the information has not been published in a book, it is not set in stone, and could thus change.

So while at the time Martin seems to have envisioned Aegon's age to have been a year old, give or take a few months, at his death, information published since then indicates to us thay Aegon was slightly older than that at his death. The SSM is outdated.

 

On 2/26/2019 at 9:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

This is actually my position - that the Sack occurred in the first quarter of 283, and Aegon's age is the marker. Using that as a guide then since the Rebellion lasted about a year - Jon Arryn raised his banners in the first quarter of 272.

The Sack must have occurred in the middel of the second half of 283 AC, as Daenerys was born 9 months after the Sack, and she seems to have been born mid-284 AC.

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