Is Asha pregnant?

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

I'm not sure where you're getting the spousal inheritance with sons thing from. Lady Waynwood, for example, is definitely the daughter of the previous Lord Waynwood rather than a widow who's now ruling; Jeyne Arryn inherited the Vale after her father and brothers were killed by clansmen, Rohanne Webber inherited from her own father, etc. The only examples we have of known widows of lords ruling are Donella Hornwood (after the death of her husband and their only son), Shella Whent (after the death of all her children), and Barbrey Dustin (childless).

I'm not claiming Stannis is the sort of person to undermine the traditional line of succession, but it's also the law that a man of the Night's Watch cannot be released from his vows except in death, yet Stannis offers to try and make Jon the Lord of Winterfell because it's far more politically viable to him than naming the missing, suspected murderer that is Sansa as Lady of Winterfell. In the same vein, Theon is so mentally and physically destroyed, and a eunuch, that it's not too far fetched for him to acknowledge the Ironborn might accept Asha.

Plus, on this burning thing... if Melisandre initiates it, cool. But Stannis? Being the stickler that he is, he's not going to contemplate that Balon was a legitimate king, I think. Edric Storm is Robert's son, but Asha is the daughter of a false claimant (in his view), with the most king's blood coming from ancient Kingsmoot kings. So I'm not really sure if she's doomed at this point.

OK, so in Anya Waynwood's case, she was the only child of the previous Lord Waynwood. Jeyne Arryn became Lady Arryn after her father and all her brothers were killed. Rohanne Webber was Wyman Webber's only child. and so on . . . Women only inherit when there are no other males in their immediate families. Ergo, Theon is more valuable to Stannis than Asha because Theon is the direct male heir to House Greyjoy. Yes, as I said, Stannis might take Theon's missing junk into consideration here, but I still put the odds higher that he will dispose of the daughter, not the son. There has never been a Queen of the Iron Islands, nor a female head of House Greyjoy, nor any iron house that we know of. Gwynesse Harlaw thinks the Ten Towers should be hers, but they went to Rodrik, her younger brother, instead. So rather than roll the dice on the off-chance that the ironborn would accept the first female head-of-house in their entire history, better to go with the clear, indisputable heir to House Greyjoy and the Seastone Chair.

Stannis tries to install Jon, a male, as Lord of Winterfell over Sansa, a female, even though Sansa is a legitimate child of Ned Stark. Stannis has the legal power to legitimize Jon, which would make him the legal heir under all the laws of Westeros. It is questionable whether he has the legal authority to absolve someone of their NW vows, but he is the king and the NW is an order under his domain. So, sure, Stannis would do this to put his own man in the high seat of Winterfell in order to block someone else's woman.

It's got nothing to do with being king. It's about who will lead House Greyjoy, and I contend Stannis will install the legitimate male heir over a female claimant because that is the sort of man he is. He doesn't like women, particularly powerful women, and he is a stickler when it comes to the law.

[Vaith]

31 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, so in Anya Waynwood's case, she was the only child of the previous Lord Waynwood. Jeyne Arryn became Lady Arryn after her father and all her brothers were killed. Rohanne Webber was Wyman Webber's only child. and so on . . . Women only inherit when there are no other males in their immediate families. Ergo, Theon is more valuable to Stannis than Asha because Theon is the direct male heir to House Greyjoy. Yes, as I said, Stannis might take Theon's missing junk into consideration here, but I still put the odds higher that he will dispose of the daughter, not the son. There has never been a Queen of the Iron Islands, nor a female head of House Greyjoy, nor any iron house that we know of. Gwynesse Harlaw thinks the Ten Towers should be hers, but they went to Rodrik, her younger brother, instead. So rather than roll the dice on the off-chance that the ironborn would accept the first female head-of-house in their entire history, better to go with the clear, indisputable heir to House Greyjoy and the Seastone Chair.

Stannis tries to install Jon, a male, as Lord of Winterfell over Sansa, a female, even though Sansa is a legitimate child of Ned Stark. Stannis has the legal power to legitimize Jon, which would make him the legal heir under all the laws of Westeros. It is questionable whether he has the legal authority to absolve someone of their NW vows, but he is the king and the NW is an order under his domain. So, sure, Stannis would do this to put his own man in the high seat of Winterfell in order to block someone else's woman.

It's got nothing to do with being king. It's about who will lead House Greyjoy, and I contend Stannis will install the legitimate male heir over a female claimant because that is the sort of man he is. He doesn't like women, particularly powerful women, and he is a stickler when it comes to the law.

I wasn't arguing on the male-preference inheritance, it's just that the point about widows struck me as somewhat odd and I wondered where that was going from. 

Asha didn't get 0 votes in the Kingsmoot. It's not exactly impossible she'd be favoured over someone as messed up as Theon.

The Night's Watch is under the king's domain... what? We never get any indication that this is the case, there is no mention of Lord Commander Hoare kneeling to Aegon the Conqueror, and Alysanne gave the New Gift to the NW (implying that is not crown land). The whole point of the NW in the War of Five Kings is that it means nothing to them, since they do not serve any sort of king, which they sort of tell Stannis when he arrives. Stannis knows he does not have the power to remove Jon's vows; that is why there is the whole "I will send 100 men" thing rather than just saying he has the power to dismiss him.

Stannis doesn't have the highest opinion of female rulers, but it's also that Jon was obviously the far more convenient contender in his reach at the time. A proposed vow-breaking and legitimisation does not strike me as someone who 100% abides by the book when it is politically disadvantageous for him.

...I thought the whole burning theory was predicated on the "power in a king's blood" stuff? If it's just about burning Asha for justice or whatever... eeh? She captured the Glovers and treated them quite well, whereas Theon killed two Stark boys (in the eyes of many...)

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Vaith said:

I wasn't arguing on the male-preference inheritance, it's just that the point about widows struck me as somewhat odd and I wondered where that was going from. 

Asha didn't get 0 votes in the Kingsmoot. It's not exactly impossible she'd be favoured over someone as messed up as Theon.

The Night's Watch is under the king's domain... what? We never get any indication that this is the case, there is no mention of Lord Commander Hoare kneeling to Aegon the Conqueror, and Alysanne gave the New Gift to the NW (implying that is not crown land). The whole point of the NW in the War of Five Kings is that it means nothing to them, since they do not serve any sort of king, which they sort of tell Stannis when he arrives. Stannis knows he does not have the power to remove Jon's vows; that is why there is the whole "I will send 100 men" thing rather than just saying he has the power to dismiss him.

Stannis doesn't have the highest opinion of female rulers, but it's also that Jon was obviously the far more convenient contender in his reach at the time. A proposed vow-breaking and legitimisation does not strike me as someone who 100% abides by the book when it is politically disadvantageous for him.

...I thought the whole burning theory was predicated on the "power in a king's blood" stuff? If it's just about burning Asha for justice or whatever... eeh? She captured the Glovers and treated them quite well, whereas Theon killed two Stark boys (in the eyes of many...)

The NW takes no part in the affairs of the realm, but that does not mean they are a separate and independent entity. They are still bound by the king's laws, which are set and enforced by the king. This is how Stannis is able to make the threat that he will choose the next Lord Commander if they do not, and how Sam was able to trick Pyke and Mallister into ceding to Jon with the threat that the king will choose the other if there is another hung ballot. It's good to be da king.

Asha got some votes at the kingsmoot, more than Damphair had expected, but many more remained silent. And when the overwhelming majority threw their support to Euron, she fled with just four longships and fewer than 200 men. Sure, it's possible she could become queen someday, but it's a longshot -- far longer than the son of the last king.

A king legitimizing a bastard is 100 percent by the book. Undoing an NW vow is a little less so, but it just goes to show how much Stannis favors a man of his own choosing rather than a woman of someone else's choosing.

As far as Mel is concerned, Asha has king's blood. Stannis would not install Theon as the new King of the Iron Islands, however, because Stannis is king and the islands are part of his domain. So he would install Theon as Lord Paramount of the islands, which would rightly go to a man rather than a woman, because I don't think we've ever seen a female LP or warden either.

[Vaith]

On 4/2/2019 at 3:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

The NW takes no part in the affairs of the realm, but that does not mean they are a separate and independent entity. They are still bound by the king's laws, which are set and enforced by the king. This is how Stannis is able to make the threat that he will choose the next Lord Commander if they do not, and how Sam was able to trick Pyke and Mallister into ceding to Jon with the threat that the king will choose the other if there is another hung ballot. It's good to be da king.

Asha got some votes at the kingsmoot, more than Damphair had expected, but many more remained silent. And when the overwhelming majority threw their support to Euron, she fled with just four longships and fewer than 200 men. Sure, it's possible she could become queen someday, but it's a longshot -- far longer than the son of the last king.

A king legitimizing a bastard is 100 percent by the book. Undoing an NW vow is a little less so, but it just goes to show how much Stannis favors a man of his own choosing rather than a woman of someone else's choosing.

As far as Mel is concerned, Asha has king's blood. Stannis would not install Theon as the new King of the Iron Islands, however, because Stannis is king and the islands are part of his domain. So he would install Theon as Lord Paramount of the islands, which would rightly go to a man rather than a woman, because I don't think we've ever seen a female LP or warden either.

Stannis seems to think he has authority, but that doesn't mean he actually does. He is certainly the first king stationed at the Wall for a rather long period of time, with troops of his own -- even if he doesn't have control over them, he is a forceful figure enough that the Night's Watch can be forced to kowtow to him in certain ways. If you can find anything that states that the ancient institution was ever absorbed under the crown, let me know.

We have definitely seen a female paramount ruler and warden who has been mentioned in TPATQ, Fire & Blood, and The World of Ice & Fire: Lady Jeyne Arryn of the Eyrie, Defender of the Vale, Warden of the East https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jeyne_Arryn 

I don't think how Stannis acts to Sansa vs Jon can be taken as some universal way of treating female vs male claimants. Circumstances are different when both heirs are there (and Asha's in more of a state to actually rule competently), and I just don't think you can say that it's to the extent that 1. Stannis will choose to sacrifice a potential claimant before he is in the position to actually invade the Iron Islands and 2. on the basis of Melisandre telling him she has king's blood, when he doesn't believe her dad was ever a legitimate king.

[John Suburbs]

6 minutes ago, Vaith said:

Stannis seems to think he has authority, but that doesn't mean he actually does. He is certainly the first king stationed at the Wall for a rather long period of time, with troops of his own -- even if he doesn't have control over them, he is a forceful figure enough that the Night's Watch can be forced to kowtow to him in certain ways. If you can find anything that states that the ancient institution was ever absorbed under the crown, let me know.

We have definitely seen a female paramount ruler and warden who has been mentioned in TPATQ, Fire & Blood, and The World of Ice & Fire: Lady Jeyne Arryn of the Eyrie, Defender of the Vale, Warden of the East https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jeyne_Arryn 

I don't think how Stannis acts to Sansa vs Jon can be taken as some universal way of treating female vs male claimants. Circumstances are different when both heirs are there (and Asha's in more of a state to actually rule competently), and I just don't think you can say that it's to the extent that 1. Stannis will choose to sacrifice a potential claimant before he is in the position to actually invade the Iron Islands and 2. on the basis of Melisandre telling him she has king's blood, when he doesn't believe her dad was ever a legitimate king.

They all kneel when he enters the room. They call him sire or your grace. They all acknowledge him as their king. They do not consider themselves to be a separate nation or else nobody would give a fig who Stannis wanted to install as Lord Commander. The NW might have a certain amount of autonomy, just as all the great houses do, but it is still part and parcel to the Seven Kingdoms ruled by the Iron Throne. As I said, though, the actual extent of the king's authority is iffy, since it has never been clearly defined. So if Stannis were to declare that Jon is the legitimate Lord of Winterfell and his vows to the NW were null and void, and even if the NW did not agree with this decision, the responsibility for executing deserters of the NW who make they way into the north falls to, guess who, the Lord of Winterfell. Do you honestly think that the new LC of the NW will march his meager forces and lay siege to Winterfell just to execute Jon, and thus throw its primary support house into political chaos?

Lol, one female paramount/warden in 300 years who, again, only became lady when all the males in her family were killed. If you can find a woman who was elevated to head of a noble house above her living older brother, let me know.

We don't know when, or if, he will sacrifice anyone. My take is that if it comes down to this, he will choose Asha before Theon because a male claimant is undisputed while a female claimant is risky. He doesn't care how well the islands are run, and in fact would likely rather have the weaker ruler in place to prevent any uprisings in the future. It also doesn't matter whether he thinks she has actual king's blood or not. All that matters is if his men believe it. Just as it didn't matter if Mance Rayder had king's blood or if it was really him in the flames. If Stannis does believe in the power of king's blood and the only true holders of it are Shireen and himself, then all other sacrifices are just for show.

[Vaith]

2 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They all kneel when he enters the room. They call him sire or your grace. They all acknowledge him as their king. They do not consider themselves to be a separate nation or else nobody would give a fig who Stannis wanted to install as Lord Commander. The NW might have a certain amount of autonomy, just as all the great houses do, but it is still part and parcel to the Seven Kingdoms ruled by the Iron Throne. As I said, though, the actual extent of the king's authority is iffy, since it has never been clearly defined. So if Stannis were to declare that Jon is the legitimate Lord of Winterfell and his vows to the NW were null and void, and even if the NW did not agree with this decision, the responsibility for executing deserters of the NW who make they way into the north falls to, guess who, the Lord of Winterfell. Do you honestly think that the new LC of the NW will march his meager forces and lay siege to Winterfell just to execute Jon, and thus throw its primary support house into political chaos?

Lol, one female paramount/warden in 300 years who, again, only became lady when all the males in her family were killed. If you can find a woman who was elevated to head of a noble house above her living older brother, let me know.

We don't know when, or if, he will sacrifice anyone. My take is that if it comes down to this, he will choose Asha before Theon because a male claimant is undisputed while a female claimant is risky. He doesn't care how well the islands are run, and in fact would likely rather have the weaker ruler in place to prevent any uprisings in the future. It also doesn't matter whether he thinks she has actual king's blood or not. All that matters is if his men believe it. Just as it didn't matter if Mance Rayder had king's blood or if it was really him in the flames. If Stannis does believe in the power of king's blood and the only true holders of it are Shireen and himself, then all other sacrifices are just for show.

Again, they have little choice. "Your grace/sire," can be a way to address a king regardless of allegiance/fealty (in the same vein that KL courtiers calling Ned "my lord" in AGOT doesn't mean he is their lord, in that they actually owe fealty to him), and they are going to try and butter up a ruler who is actually offering them support in troops. The scenario you list is unlikely to happen -- but not because it is not legally dubious, but rather unfeasible. There is a certain level as to which force can overrule law, and Stannis does recognise this to some extent.

In the article to Jeyne Arryn that was linked, it explained that it was not "all the males in her family," but the immediate males in her family, and that at the end of her reign, she actually had three competing male heirs; her first cousin and his son, a fourth cousin, and the Arryns of Gulltown. Furthermore, I've quite consistently explained I do not think Asha would be legally viewed as Balon's heir, but that she may be more viable as an heir since she's not mentally destroyed. But if you need one example of a woman north of Dorne who had living brothers during her rule, there's Marla Sunderland, briefly declared Queen of the Three Sisters during Aegon's Conquest. https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Marla_Sunderland

If Stannis does choose Theon before Asha -- which I can see happening, and actually think it's more possible -- I don't actually think she will die. He might think, "hmm, maybe this really ailing and mentally fucked up guy could die on me -- maybe I'll keep his spare around so that if he passes away, I'll have a backup to install on the Seastone Chair. To be honest, I don't think the story will get to a point where Stannis actually invades the Isles -- perhaps he will rule Winterfell for a time, before Euron is finished off by Dany and Theon and Asha are welcomed back to the Islands as King and Hand/heir -- who knows. All I'm going to argue is that I don't think she's destined to die quite yet.