Varys and Shadrick's plans

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So, it's accepted fact by now that Shadrick the Mad Mouse is working for Varys and looking for Sansa. However what exactly does he plan to do? Well, I have a theory in that regards.

- First off Shadrick is supposed to kill Harry the Heir in the tourney. Now, I think we all agree that there's a clear feeling of impending doom in the Alayne preview chapter. Now a lot of us, myself included, feel that considering LF and Harry's personalities, that doom comes in the form of the r word. But let's suppose that for once GRRM isn't a complete sadist. Well in that case Harry being killed could work quite well in that regards, because, his death would pulverize LF's power. Why? Well, because everybody would see it as murder on LF's part. I mean just think about it, LF, obviously lures HtH to the tourney, then he and his daughters have a very visible disagreement, and finally HtH dies. Who would be held accountable? If Harry dies, than Waynwood and Royce would be coming after LF with a vengeance.

And keep in mind, Varys no longer needs LF to destabilize the realm. Aegon is here and has a clear path towards the Kingships. On the contrary, now Varys needs to stabilize the realm so that Aegon has a good reign, therefor LF needs to be removed. 

There's also actually some foreshadowing for this. Where? Simple, when the Mountain killed Hugor of the Vale. Only this time it won't be a mountain, but a mouse, killing a Vale knight in a tourney.

- Now, the second part of the plan is the more straightforward one, Shadrick getting Sansa.

Aegon needs a Queen, and while Varys is probably still hoping for Daenerys, it never harms to have a backup. And out of all the brides in Westeros, Sansa is one of the best, as it ties the North, Riverlands and Val to Aegon through blood. She's only second to Daenerys and maybe Marge. Varys also needs to remove her as a pawn for LF. Finally there's quite a lot of foreshadowing for this too, with the whole Ashford tourney theory.

In conclusion, I think Shadrick's plan/mission is to first kill Harry, then in the chaos spirit away Sansa and take her to Varys and Aegon. So what do you think?

[mohan]

varys knows about tyrion 

7 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So, it's accepted fact by now that Shadrick the Mad Mouse is working for Varys and looking for Sansa. However what exactly does he plan to do? Well, I have a theory in that regards.

- First off Shadrick is supposed to kill Harry the Heir in the tourney. Now, I think we all agree that there's a clear feeling of impending doom in the Alayne preview chapter. Now a lot of us, myself included, feel that considering LF and Harry's personalities, that doom comes in the form of the r word. But let's suppose that for once GRRM isn't a complete sadist. Well in that case Harry being killed could work quite well in that regards, because, his death would pulverize LF's power. Why? Well, because everybody would see it as murder on LF's part. I mean just think about it, LF, obviously lures HtH to the tourney, then he and his daughters have a very visible disagreement, and finally HtH dies. Who would be held accountable? If Harry dies, than Waynwood and Royce would be coming after LF with a vengeance.

And keep in mind, Varys no longer needs LF to destabilize the realm. Aegon is here and has a clear path towards the Kingships. On the contrary, now Varys needs to stabilize the realm so that Aegon has a good reign, therefor LF needs to be removed. 

There's also actually some foreshadowing for this. Where? Simple, when the Mountain killed Hugor of the Vale. Only this time it won't be a mountain, but a mouse, killing a Vale knight in a tourney.

- Now, the second part of the plan is the more straightforward one, Shadrick getting Sansa.

Aegon needs a Queen, and while Varys is probably still hoping for Daenerys, it never harms to have a backup. And out of all the brides in Westeros, Sansa is one of the best, as it ties the North, Riverlands and Val to Aegon through blood. She's only second to Daenerys and maybe Marge. Varys also needs to remove her as a pawn for LF. Finally there's quite a lot of foreshadowing for this too, with the whole Ashford tourney theory.

In conclusion, I think Shadrick's plan/mission is to first kill Harry, then in the chaos spirit away Sansa and take her to Varys and Aegon. So what do you think?

varys knows tyrion and where he is ,I don't think he will get rid of him by himself, because he is sansa's husband 

so he might be using his men to know the plot of the little finger maybe 

[Nevets]

I seriously doubt Shadrick is Varys's agent.  He seems more of a freelance hoping to pick up a reward for Sansa or her whereabouts that has been offered by Varys, probably on Cersei's behalf.  At that time, Varys was still working for Cersei.

I don't think Varys has any real interest in Sansa for himself or for Aegon.  Unless she brings an army or political support with her, she isn't much use to him.  And right now, she can't. 

In any event, I doubt she would be interested.   Becoming queen consort to a guy she has never met and knows nothing about, back in Kings Landing, and likely surrounded by more enemies than she can keep track of sounds distinctly unappealing.

My guess is Shadrick is in the Vale for one of two reasons.  He may have figured out Sansa is there, and hopes to profit from that knowledge.  Or he may have simply heard that Littlefinger was looking for knights, and needed to make some cash.  In that event, he is merely a red herring.  In any event, I do not believe he is working for Varys.

[Groo]

We meet Shadrick out looking for Sansa long before this tourney came about. Just think about some of the underlying assumptions to this theory.

1. Varys already knew Littlefinger was hiding Sansa in the Vale.

2. Varys already knew Littlefinger would eventually arrange a marriage between Sansa and Harry.

3. Varys already knew they would eventually set up a tourney that Harry would be at.

4. Varys already knows he can arrange for Shadrick to be matched against Harry in the tourney.

5. Despite knowing all this Varys thinks the best approach is to first have Shadrick wander around the Riverlands openingly announcing that he's looking for Sansa.

I could go on but it's full of problems if you think about it from the other direction. If you're Varys and you want to remove Littlefinger isn't your best bet to intervene and help make sure the Lords Declarant oust Baelish? Or why not arrange for Robert's death so Baelish is no longer Lord Protector? Doesn't Harry's death just remove Robert's only rival leaving Baelish firmly in control of the Vale?