Will Euron's blood magic ritual work?

[Egged]

On 4/9/2021 at 8:08 AM, Megorova said:

Sure. Because Euron's black armor is made from Valyrian Steel, and Rhaegar's armor, even though it was also black-colored like Euron's, wasn't VS. Rhaegar's armor got dented and crushed by Robert's war-hammer. If he was wearing VS-armor, then he wouldn't have died. And Jon's black-ice armor (in his dream in ADWD) was also VS, thus neither Jon's dream-armor nor Euron's armor aren't Rhaegar's.

I thought the hammer hit the ruby part, but yeah it would make sense it was encrusted on top. That being said, is VS armor really indestructible? A hit from Robert's hammer isn't just any hit.

[Hippocras]

On 4/6/2021 at 4:19 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is a non-argument. For it to be an argument you would need evidence in the text that the Westermen no longer want to be ruled by Cersei. That Cersei does have actual rivals in House Lannister and, perhaps, even among the other Lords of the West for lordship of Casterly Rock and/or the effective execution of the power that comes with that title.

But there is nothing of that sort in the books. Nothing at all.

Cersei's walk of shame destroyed her reputation and status as queen (regent). She is never going to regain authority over the people who watched her naked in the mud - unless she has outside support and/or a strong army of people who are, for some reason, loyal to her. But if you go back to ADwD then no Lannister guardsmen or Westermen were actually allowed to watch this. Kevan kept the Lannister men away from the entire charade, and Cersei and Tommen themselves sent the Lannister armies back home in AFfC ... and where both cheered genuinely back then.

This cheering - which Jaime just remembers, we never see it - is one of those subtle clues about what's going to happen if Cersei is mistreated by her enemies and her children are killed and she is able to call on their help. Cersei was their queen and is their lady, and her sons were/are their kings. That is a very strong bond in this setting.

The idea that Cersei would have any trouble exploiting such bonds just doesn't make any sense. If George wanted to destroy her bond with the West then the Westermen would have all been in KL when she had to do her walk ... and they would have watched and laughed at her like the Kingslanders did.

But that didn't happen. And it didn't happen for a reason.

You seem to forget how easily the Westermen turned on Tytos. They saw him as weak, and used that weakness to advantage, undermining him. It was only fear of Tywin that kept them in line ever since. The families involved may be gone (though people always forget about the women who took different names and had children) but the human impulses at the core are not gone and never will be.

For evidence of the West refusing to follow Cersei look only to Kevan. Why do you seem to think the way Kevan felt about Cersei does not count as evidence others feel the same?

Jaime too for that matter. He also shows open contempt for her decisions, regardless of his complicated relationship with her.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

You seem to forget how easily the Westermen turned on Tytos. They saw him as weak, and used that weakness to advantage, undermining him. It was only fear of Tywin that kept them in line ever since. The families involved may be gone (though people always forget about the women who took different names and had children) but the human impulses at the core are not gone and never will be.

For evidence of the West refusing to follow Cersei look only to Kevan. Why do you seem to think the way Kevan felt about Cersei does not count as evidence others feel the same?

Jaime too for that matter. He also shows open contempt for her decisions, regardless of his complicated relationship with her.

The Westermen never actually 'turned on Tytos' in the sense that they wanted to depose or supplant him. Tytos failed to properly rule his lands, meaning his bannermen and subjects did what they wanted, creating anarchy, private wars, etc. The only damage Tytos did to House Lannister was lending money to people and never demanding it back. But it never came to the point that other lords tried to usurp the Lannisters as the rulers of the West. Even when the Tarbecks and Reynes rebelled - they merely declared themselves independent of Casterly Rock. They did not declare themselves the new rulers of the West or tried to take Casterly Rock or Lannisport from the Lannisters.

House Lannister itself was stable and - oddly enough - under Tytos's thumb. Tytos did force his brother Jason and his daughter Genna in marriages neither of them did want. The man liked to please his subjects and bannermen and most often sided with them against his own family ... and then said family, including his brother, wife, father-in-law, and sons couldn't do anything about that. Until a grown-up Tywin took matters into his own hands, of course.

The result of Tytos' misrule was that the Lannisters became the laughingstock of the Realm - and that certainly was bad - but they didn't actually lose any of the formal powers and privileges they had. But up until Castamere the lions of the Rock were no longer feared. And that certainly was a problem.

In any case - nothing indicates that Cersei is viewed even remotely as 'Tytos material'. She isn't weak in the way this guy was weak, she doesn't does everything her bannermen want to please them, etc.

Again, some Lannisters are concerned about how Cersei Lannister ran the Realm as Queen Regent ... but nobody even entertained the possibility that she should not be allowed to be who she is - the Lady of Casterly Rock. Neither Kevan nor Jaime think they - or some other Lannister - should take Cersei's place as Lady of Casterly Rock.

Some people did think that Cersei should have named Kevan Warden of the West instead of Daven ... but Daven and Damion who rose to high offices thanks to her should thank her for that. There is not even the indication of rebellion there ... and Jaime doesn't even figure into the internal workings of the Westerlands at this point. He a Kingsguard now.

Again, there is always a chance of rebellion or a coup while the story isn't over yet. But so far there is no indication that anyone in the West plots against Cersei or wants her gone.

And it is just a fact that without the support of House Lannister and the bulk of the Westermen Cersei has no chance whatsoever to ever regain any power. If you operate under the assumption that Cersei Lannister remains a player in the game then she needs the loyalty of her bannermen both in a moral sense (Cersei is our Lady!) as well as in a military sense (We are going to war to defend the honor of Cersei and her children!).

If she had neither, she would be a dead woman walking right now. Because there is no chance that anyone flocks to the support of a disgraced woman who has no power left ... and who wasn't exactly very popular outside her home region when she ruled supreme.