The death of dragons and gold

[astarkchoice]

With the death of dragons doesnt it strike as odd thst the lannisters with their combined arrogance and unlimited wealth didnt become masters of westeros sooner?

Tywins massacre of the reynes and tarbeks made him probably  by far and away the richest lannister ever...seems odd such and agressive political mover didnt do more with such wealth!

 

His brutal massacre got his family the silver+ gold mines that made the reyne/tarbecks feel they were the lannisters equals ! Thats a massive uplift (if u can uplift infinite wealtg) all on its own then theres all the westerlands lords paying back loans his father gave back of fear. Add in jamie and the clegane boys consistantly doing well in roberts insanely well paid and freqent tourneys, the interest on the loan hes given the state and finaly whatever his men got from sacking KL last time.

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

With the death of dragons doesnt it strike as odd thst the lannisters with their combined arrogance and unlimited wealth didnt become masters of westeros sooner?

Tywins massacre of the reynes and tarbeks made him probably  by far and away the richest lannister ever...seems odd such and agressive political mover didnt do more with such wealth!

 

His brutal massacre got his family the silver+ gold mines that made the reyne/tarbecks feel they were the lannisters equals ! Thats a massive uplift (if u can uplift infinite wealtg) all on its own then theres all the westerlands lords paying back loans his father gave back of fear. Add in jamie and the clegane boys consistantly doing well in roberts insanely well paid and freqent tourneys, the interest on the loan hes given the state and finaly whatever his men got from sacking KL last time.

I think it's easy to overestimate the power that money can buy in Westeros. It's a feudal society and a feudal economy, with a relatively static technology level, so in terms of ability to exercise power, land, food and people are at least as important as gold, if not moreso. Prestige matters, and if Tywin were to raise his banners against either the Targs or Robert without an exceptionally good reason, he'd rapidly find himself on the receiving end of a kicking.

I suspect the fans are often also guilty of overestimating how much richer the Lannisters are than the other great houses. They are certainly the richest house, but all the great houses are phenomenally rich by the standards of the average person in Westeros, and the ability of Tywin to manipulate them through money is going to be limited.

They also probably didn't gain much more absolute money - if any - from defeating the Reynes. Tywin flooded the Castamere gold mine, and it doesn't seem to have reopened. The event may have led to other recalcitrant Lannister debtors paying up, but the mine itself is pretty much worthless now, at least without a massive effort to drain it that for someone already as rich as Tywin may be more trouble than it's worth.

And how much more power does Tywin need? Relatively soon after defeating the Reynes, he's Hand of the King, and widely recognised as the most powerful man in the kingdom.

 

 

[astarkchoice]

14 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I think it's easy to overestimate the power that money can buy in Westeros. It's a feudal society and a feudal economy, with a relatively static technology level, so in terms of ability to exercise power, land, food and people are at least as important as gold, if not moreso. Prestige matters, and if Tywin were to raise his banners against either the Targs or Robert without an exceptionally good reason, he'd rapidly find himself on the receiving end of a kicking.

I suspect the fans are often also guilty of overestimating how much richer the Lannisters are than the other great houses. They are certainly the richest house, but all the great houses are phenomenally rich by the standards of the average person in Westeros, and the ability of Tywin to manipulate them through money is going to be limited.

They also probably didn't gain much more absolute money - if any - from defeating the Reynes. Tywin flooded the Castamere gold mine, and it doesn't seem to have reopened. The event may have led to other recalcitrant Lannister debtors paying up, but the mine itself is pretty much worthless now, at least without a massive effort to drain it that for someone already as rich as Tywin may be more trouble than it's worth.

And how much more power does Tywin need? Relatively soon after defeating the Reynes, he's Hand of the King, and widely recognised as the most powerful man in the kingdom.

 

 

It really depends on how he builds it up (although there should have been a slow takeover of westeros since dragons did as a magic never ending goldmine is almost as good as dragons)now  if it comes to naked force  theres the huge merc forces  for hire in essos , slaves ones , sellsails, and assasins  , we know there are plenty of sellswords etc in westeros too.

But it shouldnt need to come.to open unsubtle flexing/war like that  as we see with littlefingers adventures in the vale how many old proud houses can be easily bought! We see many houses all over  owe to the iron bank when they call in debts , the antler men, the influence ilyrio buys such as backing a  volantis triarch to power etc etc 

 

In terms of cash we know they have a vibrant port and extensive lands same as other rich lords yes but a giant mountain fortress with no end of rich gold seems to mine  puts them wayyyy over any other nobility by far (before we even talk the culmative effect of such wealth over generations.)  They have  virtualy unlimited wealth held back only by the fact they need cannot drown the market in gold otherwise its price will drop...but even then thats a hit they can easily take !!! They are like the modern day saudis if you replace oil with gold.

The castamere goldmine is mentioned as one of the ones siezed by jon umber when they scour the westerlands, hes excited by the gold there and other places whereas lady mormomt siezed cattle. It seems they did reopen the mine and even planned to hand the lands back to the westerlings for their treachery vs robb.!

 

Hmm well all nobles seem to be grasping for more and more (well the sociopath ones that is) and besides the point is given their unlimited wealth youd expect them.to be far more powerful since the fall of dragons and the fall of house velayron too.

Edited March 25 by astarkchoice

[House Cambodia]

Take the USA as a real-world example. It has the most 'gold' and military clout - even unwisely used in recent times, yet most nations do not buddy up to it and would resist military pressure.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, House Cambodia said:

Take the USA as a real-world example. It has the most 'gold' and military clout - even unwisely used in recent times, yet most nations do not buddy up to it and would resist military pressure.

Even taking that as a very rough analogy it also has unparalleled dominance and alliances worldwide. 

[House Cambodia]

34 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Even taking that as a very rough analogy it also has unparalleled dominance and alliances worldwide. 

That's my point - even with that, they are far from being the Earth counterpart of 'masters of Westeros', so how much less should the Lannisters be.

[astarkchoice]

25 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

That's my point - even with that, they are far from being the Earth counterpart of 'masters of Westeros', so how much less should the Lannisters be.

Thats sorta making the point even more though. The us is by far the dominant economy on earth and has massive influence despite us having moved on to democracies etc .

The lannisters by contrast have infinite money, arent as restrained by modern local + geopolitics and have had this advantage for centuries!! Nor minus dragons  do they have any real counterweights as the u.s does (yi-ti? Iron bank? Bravos? But they are all essosi based)

 

Look at what lf has done to the valelords with a tiniest fraction of the wealth the lannisters have on tap! Or ilyrio!  Stannis was out of the game after blackwater  with barely enouhh manpower to take a small keep yet a few monthd with the same 'infinite money card ' expects to be back in the running for king of all westeros!!

The fact is its sorta a worldbuilding issue that they dont dominate more.

Edited March 25 by astarkchoice

[Alester Florent]

I'm not convinced that the Lannisters do have "infinite money", for what it's worth. If they were infinitely wealthy and money was everything, then their star would never have fallen so far under Tytos (and latter-day Gerold) and needed restoring under Tywin.

Nor does his financial status necessarily give him influence over the other great lords. The crown is indebted because of Littlefinger's gearing, in order to sustain the high-spend approach that Robert uses to maintain popularity - and because the crown's revenues are relatively meagre relative to the perception of power and status it's forced to project. The other great houses aren't likely to be anywhere near as indebted, if at all, so there isn't the opportunity for Tywin to buy up their debt or lend them money on terms that give him an element of control in the same way as the crown. And some of them - under Robert, Ned, Doran, Renly and Stannis at minimum - are going to be immediately suspicious of any attempt to inveigle his way into their ledger books.

Colour me also unconvinced that there are armies of hundreds of thousands of mercenaries just hanging around Essos waiting for Tywin to hire them and that this is a potential instawin button. This isn't a video game where there's a bottomless pit of soldiers ready to pop up anywhere on the map on your say-so. I think the mercenaries are in the tens of thousands at most, and he'd have to hire them individually as companies (accounting for massive price inflation once they cottoned on to demand), somehow get them all to Westeros under the nose of Stannis and/or the Redwynes, then get them to a position where he can link up with them, and find a way to supply them, all without anyone noticing what he was doing before he was ready to deploy. Hoster starts getting suspicious and calls his own banner as soon as Tywin starts assembling his bannermen inside the Westerlands. If he's shipping over multiple mercenary companies he's obviously preparing for war and you can bet Ned and Mace would be watching closely.

Supplying massive armies is also a real problem: there's a finite amount of food in Westeros, and you can't eat money. So Tywin would have to move quickly once he had his troops assembled, otherwise his huge mercenary army is just going to starve, or start raiding his own lands for food.

And he'd probably still be smashed by the united armies of the crown if he tried anything. He might capture parts of the Riverlands (as he does in the WotFK) but the Westerlands is vulnerable in two directions and he's got the armies of the North, Vale, Stormlands and Reach bearing down on him.

But let's say he wins somehow and all the lords recognise him as the new king. What's he actually gained? Nothing. He's now in charge of a bunch of kingdoms that hate him and will take the first opportunity to rebel. He doesn't have any more real power than he did when he was the king's father-in-law and creditor (or Hand, under Aerys).

Going back before Tywin, we know that thanks to the mismanagement of Tion and Tytos, the Lannisters were barely masters of the Westerlands, and Tytos had no interest in anything more anyway. Before that, Gerold and Damon lived in the time of more formidable Targaryens: Daeron II, Baelor Breakspear, Maekar, Bloodraven. Opportunities for trouble were limited. We don't know about the Lannisters during the period between the Dance and Daeron II, but they took a thorough beating in the Dance when they tried throwing their weight around, and that probably had an impact on the next generation or two. And, of course, the Reynes were still around. It's unlikely that any Lannister prior to the destruction of Castamere could be quite so dominant within the Westerlands as Tywin became - and control of the Westerlands is a prerequisite for dominance outside it. Either they have to have the Reynes on side, which means concessions and a weakening of their position, or they run the risk of the Reynes bankrolling their enemies, which nullifies a lot of their supposed financial advantage.

Even if Tywin wants power above all else (which I don't think he does), he's far better off in a stable and broadly contented kingdom, either pulling strings from Casterly Rock or operating as Hand from King's Landing. Rampant conquest is not the way to go about it.

So what I'm not getting here is (a) what does "masters of Westeros" actually look like, in this scenario - and (b) why is it an improvement on what Tywin already has, to the extent it's worth chasing?

 

[astarkchoice]

10 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

-I'm not convinced that the Lannisters do have "infinite money", for what it's worth. If they were infinitely wealthy and money was everything, then their star would never have fallen so far under Tytos (and latter-day Gerold) and needed restoring under Tywin.

-Nor does his financial status necessarily give him influence over the other great lords. The crown is indebted because of Littlefinger's gearing, in order to sustain the high-spend approach that Robert uses to maintain popularity - and because the crown's revenues are relatively meagre relative to the perception of power and status it's forced to project. The other great houses aren't likely to be anywhere near as indebted, if at all, so there isn't the opportunity for Tywin to buy up their debt or lend them money on terms that give him an element of control in the same way as the crown. And some of them - under Robert, Ned, Doran, Renly and Stannis at minimum - are going to be immediately suspicious of any attempt to inveigle his way into their ledger books.

-Colour me also unconvinced that there are armies of hundreds of thousands of mercenaries just hanging around Essos waiting for Tywin to hire them and that this is a potential instawin button. This isn't a video game where there's a bottomless pit of soldiers ready to pop up anywhere on the map on your say-so. I think the mercenaries are in the tens of thousands at most, and he'd have to hire them individually as companies (accounting for massive price inflation once they cottoned on to demand), somehow get them all to Westeros under the nose of Stannis and/or the Redwynes, then get them to a position where he can link up with them, and find a way to supply them, all without anyone noticing what he was doing before he was ready to deploy. Hoster starts getting suspicious and calls his own banner as soon as Tywin starts assembling his bannermen inside the Westerlands. If he's shipping over multiple mercenary companies he's obviously preparing for war and you can bet Ned and Mace would be watching closely.

-Supplying massive armies is also a real problem: there's a finite amount of food in Westeros, and you can't eat money. So Tywin would have to move quickly once he had his troops assembled, otherwise his huge mercenary army is just going to starve, or start raiding his own lands for food.

-And he'd probably still be smashed by the united armies of the crown if he tried anything. He might capture parts of the Riverlands (as he does in the WotFK) but the Westerlands is vulnerable in two directions and he's got the armies of the North, Vale, Stormlands and Reach bearing down on him.

-But let's say he wins somehow and all the lords recognise him as the new king. What's he actually gained? Nothing. He's now in charge of a bunch of kingdoms that hate him and will take the first opportunity to rebel. He doesn't have any more real power than he did when he was the king's father-in-law and creditor (or Hand, under Aerys).

-Going back before Tywin, we know that thanks to the mismanagement of Tion and Tytos, the Lannisters were barely masters of the Westerlands, and Tytos had no interest in anything more anyway. Before that, Gerold and Damon lived in the time of more formidable Targaryens: Daeron II, Baelor Breakspear, Maekar, Bloodraven. Opportunities for trouble were limited. We don't know about the Lannisters during the period between the Dance and Daeron II, but they took a thorough beating in the Dance when they tried throwing their weight around, and that probably had an impact on the next generation or two. And, of course, the Reynes were still around. It's unlikely that any Lannister prior to the destruction of Castamere could be quite so dominant within the Westerlands as Tywin became - and control of the Westerlands is a prerequisite for dominance outside it. Either they have to have the Reynes on side, which means concessions and a weakening of their position, or they run the risk of the Reynes bankrolling their enemies, which nullifies a lot of their supposed financial advantage.

Even if Tywin wants power above all else (which I don't think he does), he's far better off in a stable and broadly contented kingdom, either pulling strings from Casterly Rock or operating as Hand from King's Landing. Rampant conquest is not the way to go about it.

-So what I'm not getting here is (a) what does "masters of Westeros" actually look like, in this scenario - and (b) why is it an improvement on what Tywin already has, to the extent it's worth chasing?

 

-we are told for all intents and purpouses they are though. Large volumes of gold and gave been able to mine it for centuries with apparently massive seams still untapped on top of their control of a major port and the usual income of  lands etc that come with being a great house! My point was for lords up to tytos on2ce dragons left that should have accumulated to a lot more largely soft power...esp in a world with working banking system too.

-we have already covered this man westeros can be bought ,the vale we see various great houses bought by LF , varys replacement doesnt need littlebirds just bribes(as many other hands would too)  ,  the antler men willing to risk their lives for debts, the purple sails of the iron bank ships calling in loans all over the lands due to cerseis stupidity, cersei herself having people watching all over kl for bastards and other info  ,  the citywatch commamder  slybt being for sale , the very fact so many westerlands lords needed to borrow in the 1st  place. The greatt lords (and important lesser cogs in the machine)  are proud but many are apparently easily bought and paid for ! and all  thats before we talk of the influence of outside westeros  men like xaro or ilyrio etc.

-i openly said he woulnt need to be so  openly agressive but that said its been covered in dozens of threads now that there are clearly 10s of thousands of mercs for  hire in essos arounnd the free cites, for the golden company to make sense itd need to be non golden company  30-40k  for  them  to make sense and fit realisticaly into  that world ( lowballing given the vastness of the disputed lands etc). Thats before we talk slave armies, assasins , sellsails , bribing essosi leaders and of course the fact the  ironborn DO  pay the gold price, shit  eurons elections hows them for the merc/pirate whores they are!!!  But again all that is if tywin suddenly.goes nits and wants to conquer by naked force! Any king would be stupid to let a vassal build up forces to that point or even let them use their cash to equip and train their existing forces to a level wayy beyond their peers! 

 

-assuming hes gotten the sea dominace(or if naval heavyweights like bravos ,quarth and volantis  etc simply refuse to let their trading ships going to lannisport be stopped)  hed need to get the mercs over . Fom theres supplies  arent an issue esp given hes right next to westeros 2 biggest bread basket regions (also dont forget the region itself has food enough to support millions of civillians https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/)  ...but again thatd be if he went nutz and tried to directly dominate with an invasion

 

- huh? Its not a democracy they hated the targs and plenty hated robert too..its feudalism , if somehow he conquers westeros he conquers it. Forces who bend the knee and openly swear allegiance cannot easily backtrack on that esp given the pyramid scheme on which feudalism works!.......but again this is all focusing on naked conquest which would be nuts. 

 

-yeah tytos did weaken that hold and reynes challenged that weakness as they were rich themselves but the lannisters had centuries of having a major port city AND much larger gold reserves AND clearly a lot of bannermen  needing to borrow  off them to live the lifestyles they wanted so  It shouldnt realisticaly have come to that!!   If LF can pretty much sew up the vale with a handful of greedy lords in weeks   then the lannisters should have   built up influence over westeros with  centuries of gold comming by the  tonne should make them the 2nd family after the royals themselves not merely lord of one of 7 regions!   

Shit with  seemingly unlimited gold no one in westeros  would ever borrow from anyones else...the lannisters would  have little  interest in timescales for paypack or beating banks or other lenders on interest rates!!

Or even when there WAS dragons theres also a guild of magic unstoppable assasins for sale if you can pay through the nose whose existance would mean the targs would have to treat the lannisters (or any wealthy family really) with a lot more respect.

 

Edited March 26 by astarkchoice

[House Cambodia]

Actually in the TV show Tywin tells Cercei that the last mine ran dry three years ago. It's not book canon but it wouldn't surprise me if the gold seams are becoming exhausted.

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Actually in the TV show Tywin tells Cercei that the last mine ran dry three years ago. It's not book canon but it wouldn't surprise me if the gold seams are becoming exhausted.

Its a stupid addition by the awful hack writers who butchered our beloved books!! It suddenly runs out now and not a single word of it reaches the ears of anyone else..nkt even varys or littlefinger? Hundreds of miners and other workers all tightlipped onsuch a massive secret! One that would drive the price of gold skyhigh thus everyone and their dog would be hoarding it!!

Edited March 26 by astarkchoice