ADWD release date

[Gerold Hightower]

I think it was four months for the UK and five and a half for the US edition. Could take longer this time because with GRRM's popuarity these days they have to print more copies. Anyway, a summer (2007) release is out of the question.

[Daralys]

Don't they normally take their time printing lesser known authors but then hurry it up for bigger authors? I thought I read somewhere that Robert Jordan's time from completion to release was a matter of a few weeks because Tor pushes for super fast production.

I was hoping maybe they'd make the printing go faster because of Martin's expanding popularity, though I would have thought AFFC would have published more quickly than previous books for the same reason.

[Werthead]

Considering he hasn't really written anything at all on the book since he decided to split it apart I imagine it'll be several years yet.

Erm, where did you come to this conclusion? His blog entry suggests he's into the rewriting phase of the book, which suggests it is in the final stage of writing. That final stage could still take some time of course, but it's not true that he hasn't "written anything at all". The only thing he has admitted to not "writing at all" is the AFFC-tying-up section, and that's because he doesn't know until the rest of the book is complete if he'll have room for it or not.

I thought I read somewhere that Robert Jordan's time from completion to release was a matter of a few weeks because Tor pushes for super fast production.

They did this for Books 7-10. However, the number of spelling mistakes and lack of proof-correction in those books is the reason why for 11 they went back to a proper editing cycle, which took about 5-6 months after completion of the novel.

[MoP]

Erm, where did you come to this conclusion? His blog entry suggests he's into the rewriting phase of the book, which suggests it is in the final stage of writing. That final stage could still take some time of course, but it's not true that he hasn't "written anything at all". The only thing he has admitted to not "writing at all" is the AFFC-tying-up section, and that's because he doesn't know until the rest of the book is complete if he'll have room for it or not.

I'm not sure why you think he's in the rewriting phase of the book - from memory the blog post you spoke of went something like 'some character arcs are going well, others not so - but that's what rewrites are for'. To me that seems like he is still writing stuff and some is going well, others not so but he knows he can go back to rewrite those sections. So I'm not sure we can read anything into that post other than its not going as well as most people had hoped.

[youper]

I will go with May 26th, 2008.

[the silent speaker]

I got 53 entries, and the average is June 21, 2008 +- 339 days.

So you predict somewhere between July 18, 2007 and May 25, 2009? Living dangerously are we?

I predict April 2008.

[Barba]

So you predict somewhere between July 18, 2007 and May 25, 2009? Living dangerously are we?

:rofl:

[akpov]

I'm going with Jan/feb. 2008 at the latest.

I think we have to remember that he has made a deal with hbo. One season = one book. Going by that if he has ADWD out by late this year / early next he will have 5 books out. Once the show starts (next year?) he will have 5 years to finish the last 2 books in the series. That isn't alot of time when you consider the compexity of his stories and the their sheer volume. I would bet he is working feverishly to finish ADWD so he can move onto the next story asap. HBO won't take kindly if they have to postpone a season or two of the show because he didn't finish writing the series. That would cost them a fortune in production delays.

Leon

[Ender]

So you predict somewhere between July 18, 2007 and May 25, 2009? Living dangerously are we?

I don't think that was his "prediction" exactly. He started the thread to compile a data set of release dates in an effort to apply a statistical analysis to arrive at a better prediction for the release date than any random poster's guess. It's a bastardization of the Theory of Large Numbers that proposes that the larger the sample size, the better the predictive value of the average of that sample. It works well when we're talking about statitc or measurable qualities, but the average of "guesses" tends toward a value heavily influenced by psychology/state-of-mind. At any rate, loosely applied, June 21, 2008 is a better prediction for the release date than the prediction of any random person being polled. The statistical uncertainty is represented by 339 days on either side of the averge.

[Werthead]

I think we have to remember that he has made a deal with hbo. One season = one book. Going by that if he has ADWD out by late this year / early next he will have 5 books out. Once the show starts (next year?) he will have 5 years to finish the last 2 books in the series. That isn't alot of time when you consider the compexity of his stories and the their sheer volume. I would bet he is working feverishly to finish ADWD so he can move onto the next story asap. HBO won't take kindly if they have to postpone a season or two of the show because he didn't finish writing the series. That would cost them a fortune in production delays.

HBO probably won't make a decision on the show until next year. Assuming they go into it straight away, that's pre-production and production in 2008 leaving 2009 as the earliest possible date it could air. Assuming perhaps that HBO might want to consider this a bit, maybe delay it a year or two whilst they pursue other projects etc, that can take us into 2010-2011. It should be pointed out, although HBO are much better than the networks, it's still quite usual in TV to see projects stall in development hell for several years before they get moving again.

Even assuming 'best case scenario' we get:

2009: AGoT

2010: ACoK

2011: ASoS

2012: AFFC/ADWD (probably combined to form one season)

2013: TWoW

2014: ADoS

For the sake of argument assumed ADWD comes out in 2008. That gives George six years to write two books, or three years apiece (longer than for any other book bar AFFC alone). Given the problems he experienced in the writing AFFC, which seem to have overrun into ADWD, will be in the past by then, it seems reasonable he can do it, although obviously new problems can still arise.

Worst, worst, worst case scenario, he may have to turn over an outline for Book 7 to HBO and we get to see the end of the series on TV before we read it in a book, which would be weird, but not entirely disastrous.

[Sword of the Morning]

On the contrary, I think Storm of Swords may take TWO seasons to do properly.

Feast for Crows and Dance with Dragons will take a season each.

So that would be 2015 for book 6 and 2016 for book 7.

I seriously doubt that Martin is working "feverishly" on Dance at all. And I doubt we'll see any announcements this year. I say he'll finish sometime in Spring of next year with a publication date at the tail end . . . say October to November of 2008.

Dennis

[Werthead]

TV production realities doesn't really allow for half of the entire cast to be put on hold for a year. They could go off and get other shows to work on, for example, which would really put a crimp in HBO's plans.

So I see no logical alternative to making AFFC and ADWD into one season (as God intended, some may say ). Unless they skip them both and pick up the story a year or two later with flashbacks showing what happened in the meantime...

As for ASoS, I see your point and would have thought the same before seeing how much they packed into Rome Season 2. On paper it looks impossible to fit so much stuff in to 10 60-minute episodes, but they managed it and it was superb. I have no worries on that score.

[MoP]

Hang on, aren't we putting the cart before the horse here...some people seem to be assuming that a major motivating factor for GRRM is that he mightn't get all the books done before they're due to film them for a tv series which seems pretty despondent for a number of reasons. One, shouldn't the major driving force be that he wants to finish what he started? Second, there is no guarantee that HBO will even proceed with the FIRST season, let alone continue through the entire series...if something with such a flimsy possibility of occurring is a major motivating factor for completing a novel, or series of novels, then I would be slightly shocked and very disappointed. However, I don't think it would be the case for GRRM - so can we please stop using it to "justify" guesses.

[Sword of the Morning]

TV production realities doesn't really allow for half of the entire cast to be put on hold for a year. They could go off and get other shows to work on, for example, which would really put a crimp in HBO's plans.

So I see no logical alternative to making AFFC and ADWD into one season (as God intended, some may say ). Unless they skip them both and pick up the story a year or two later with flashbacks showing what happened in the meantime...

As for ASoS, I see your point and would have thought the same before seeing how much they packed into Rome Season 2. On paper it looks impossible to fit so much stuff in to 10 60-minute episodes, but they managed it and it was superb. I have no worries on that score.

Hmm, I'd forgotten about that. I guess the actors for Jon, Dany, and Tyrion wouldn't appreciate taking a whole year off for no reason . . .

This is easily solved though by simply recutting Dance with Dragons into A Feast for Crows as it was MEANT to be and shooting half of each in 2 seasons.

Feast for Crows and Dance with Dragons should be almost the same length as Game of Thrones so it's hard to imagine trying to squeeze both into just one season.

I have no doubt that this series will go ahead. A number one New York Times bestselling series, that's money in the bank. Sopranos is ending and who knows how long Rome is going to last. HBO is going to want another show to hang their blockbuster hat on and why not Song of Ice and Fire? With the resurgence in fantasy brought on by Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter and the increased ability of T.V. shows to achieve previously movie only level special effects, there's no reason to think that the time isn't right for Song to start on HBO and soon.

I'm also all for lighting a fire under Martin's ass. Sometimes, great work from geniuses are delivered under the most extreme of duress. Let's see if Martin is the same.

Dennis

[Werthead]

who knows how long Rome is going to last

We do. It finished - for good - two weeks ago

But your point is well taken. I think someone - GRRM himself I think - mentioned that if HBO comissions five scripts, it will produce three or four of them, which is a much better hit rate than any of the networks.

[All-for-Joffrey]

Hmm, I'd forgotten about that. I guess the actors for Jon, Dany, and Tyrion wouldn't appreciate taking a whole year off for no reason . . .

This is easily solved though by simply recutting Dance with Dragons into A Feast for Crows as it was MEANT to be and shooting half of each in 2 seasons.

Feast for Crows and Dance with Dragons should be almost the same length as Game of Thrones so it's hard to imagine trying to squeeze both into just one season.

I have no doubt that this series will go ahead. A number one New York Times bestselling series, that's money in the bank. Sopranos is ending and who knows how long Rome is going to last. HBO is going to want another show to hang their blockbuster hat on and why not Song of Ice and Fire? With the resurgence in fantasy brought on by Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter and the increased ability of T.V. shows to achieve previously movie only level special effects, there's no reason to think that the time isn't right for Song to start on HBO and soon.

I'm also all for lighting a fire under Martin's ass. Sometimes, great work from geniuses are delivered under the most extreme of duress. Let's see if Martin is the same.

Dennis

I'm not sure if the two combined will even reach the length of AGOT. AFFC has by far been the shortest book in the series, and god knows how long ADWD is going to be. Even if it does, I still think it will only be one season's worth of content considering the subject matter of AFFC. I don't want to get into the classic debate about AFFC but I think most people will agree that it wouldn't make as good television as it does reading material. It has much more thought and reflection than action and on screen you can't show all the subtleties in the book that Martin describes. When you consider all the action that takes place, it would only take a few episodes to film it all. Basically, while AFFC makes a good book, I have troulbe seeing how it will provide that much content for a television show. The few episodes it does provide, however, do promise to be very dramatic and integeral to the overall series on a thematic level.

[Sword of the Morning]

I'm not sure if the two combined will even reach the length of AGOT. AFFC has by far been the shortest book in the series, and god knows how long ADWD is going to be. Even if it does, I still think it will only be one season's worth of content considering the subject matter of AFFC. I don't want to get into the classic debate about AFFC but I think most people will agree that it wouldn't make as good television as it does reading material. It has much more thought and reflection than action and on screen you can't show all the subtleties in the book that Martin describes. When you consider all the action that takes place, it would only take a few episodes to film it all. Basically, while AFFC makes a good book, I have troulbe seeing how it will provide that much content for a television show. The few episodes it does provide, however, do promise to be very dramatic and integeral to the overall series on a thematic level.

True but keep in mind that some things that take a few paragraphs in a book could take a lot of time to show on film.

One GREAT example: In Fellowship of the Ring, the script gave one sentence to the escape sequence: Aragorn and company jump over a crack in the staircase.

This turned into a gigantic action sequence (one of the most thrilling in the movie actually) that lasted a good 15 minutes or so at least with Orcs shooting at our heroes, hobbits being thrown around, and Aragorn balancing the shattered staircase toward safety.

So it works both ways as well. While most of Feast I agree doesn't translate particularly well to film, a few key sequences may take a disproportionately longer amount of time.

REGARDLESS of the length of the books, heavy cuts are still going to be needed to get things to fit in one season. You can't film Game or Clash or even Feast chapter for chapter and have it be doable even with a full seaon's worth of episodes to cover the material.

I still think to give themselves as much freedom as possible, give two seasons to Storm of Swords and give a season each to the rest. If the series takes off, there's no reason NOT to take your time. Milk it for as long as it's worth. And unlike Harry Potter, we don't have to worry about the kids growing up too fast. Quite the opposite as the faster they age, the more believable it'll be. I'm not sure if even HBO is ready to show a grown man tongue kissing a prepubescent girl like Littlefinger did to Sansa in Storm . . .

If I was HBO, I'd put this baby in overdrive. Rome had LOTS of good buzz and Song of Ice and Fire done right can dominate for a LONG, LONG, LONG time. This series has the potential to make superstars out of the actors and put HBO in charge again for the next decade. Anyone here doubt that characters like Tyrion, Cersei, Sandor, Arya, etc are RIPE to win Emmies like every freaking year??

At stake are HUNDREDS of millions of dollars.

If Martin finishes Dance and puts out another Number 1 New York Times bestseller, why the hell wouldn't the top brass at HBO start production asap to capitalize on this?? There couldn't possibly be a better time to launch a new HBO series to take the place of Sopranos and Rome.

If that's not incentive for George to stop playing with his toy soldiers and write 16 hours a day, I don't know what is.

Dennis

[Innominandum]

TV production realities doesn't really allow for half of the entire cast to be put on hold for a year. They could go off and get other shows to work on, for example, which would really put a crimp in HBO's plans.

So I see no logical alternative to making AFFC and ADWD into one season (as God intended, some may say ). Unless they skip them both and pick up the story a year or two later with flashbacks showing what happened in the meantime...

Two years for AFFC+ADWD doesn't mean the cast has to be split the way it's been in the books. It doesn't need to be split at all.

[Werthead]

I'm not sure if the two combined will even reach the length of AGOT. AFFC has by far been the shortest book in the series, and god knows how long ADWD is going to be.

Interesting. By page count AFFC is actually the second-longest book in the series (over 900 pages in mmpb). However, the type in the book is much bigger than that used in ACoK and the line spacing is wider than in AGoT.

Going by GRRM's comments, by manuscript pages (which are all the same for every book, apparently, as he's used the same software to write all the books) AGoT and AFFC are joint-shortest at around 1100 pages; ACoK was 1200 and ASoS was over 1500. I believe the plan is to bring ADWD in at 1200-1300.

[Sweetmartin]

Maybe its were better if Martin will release TWOW before as ADWD.Or much better he should release ASOS to end the serie abrupt.

why?i dunno

reason?he will finally start to write "ASOIAF 2".